By-election results: Your questions answered after Tories lose two seats but cling onto a third
The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.
Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.
The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.
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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.
So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.
:: Is Labour set to win the next election?
Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.
But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.
But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.
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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’
:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?
Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.
Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.
So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.
But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.
Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.
Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.
Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.
:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?
Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.
The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.
:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?
Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.
The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.
The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.
This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.
Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.
Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.
Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.
Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.
This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.
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‘Nothing short of spectacular’
:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?
Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.
This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.
That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.
But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.
So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.
They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.
:: How likely is a snap general election?
Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.
That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.
What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.
But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.
So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”
Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner
:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?
Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.
On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.
Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.
Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.
So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.
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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?
Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.
Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.
Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.
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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge
:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?
Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.
We may hear the result later in the summer.
Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.
The UK has signed a long-awaited deal to hand control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.
It means Britain will give up sovereignty of the Indian Ocean territory and lease back the vital UK-US Diego Garcia military base – at a cost of billions of pounds to the taxpayer.
Politics Live: Starmer signs deal to hand over UK control of Chagos Islands to Mauritius
In a news conference, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the base is of the “utmost significance to Britain”, having been used to deploy aircraft to “defeat terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan”, and “anticipate threats in the Red Sea and the Indo-Pacific”.
He said the base was under threat because of Mauritius’s legal claim on the Chagos Islands, which has been recognised by multiple international courts.
“If we did not agree this deal, the legal situation would mean that we would not be able to prevent China or any other nation setting up their own bases on the outer islands, or carrying out joint exercises near our base,” Sir Keir said.
“We would have to explain to you, the British people and to our allies, that we’d lost control of this vital asset.
“No responsible government could let that happen, so there’s no alternative but to act in Britain’s national interest by agreeing to this deal.
“We will never gamble with national security.”
Aerial view of Diego Garcia in the Chagos Island group. Pic: AP
The deal means the UK will lease the base from the Mauritian government over 99 years.
Confusion over costs
Sir Keir said the average cost per year is £101m but the net overall cost is £3.4bn, not £10bn, and all public sector projects are measured in net costs.
However, there is confusion over the government’s calculations as the full agreement between the UK and Mauritius reveals the UK will pay:
• £165m a year for the first three years;
• £120m for years four to 13;
• £120m plus inflation for every year after to year 99;
• £40m as a one-off to a fund for Chagossians;
• £45m a year for 25 years for Mauritian development.
If inflation were to remain zero for the next century, this would work out to around £10bn over 99 years.
Assuming an average of 2% inflation, Sky News analysis suggests costs could rise as high as £30bn.
Downing Street stood by its figures, saying government accounting principles were applied to adjust for long-term costs and the value of the pound today is worth more than the pound in the future.
Officials denied suggestions from journalists that was financial sophistry, insisting it was “standard practice”.
Sir Keir said that had he not struck the deal today, Mauritius would have taken the UK to international courts and probably won, with extra penalties implemented.
However the Tories – who started negotiations in government – have branded the move a “surrender tax”.
Keir Starmer
Sovereignty row
The Chagos Archipelago was separated from Mauritius by the UK in 1965, when Mauritius was a British colony.
Mauritius gained independence from the UK in 1968 and since then has been trying to claim the archipelago as Mauritian.
In the late 1960s, the US asked the UK to expel everyone from the archipelago so they could build a naval support facility on the largest island, Diego Garcia. It is leased to the US but operates as a joint UK-US base.
The UK has been under pressure to hand back control of the territory, after the UN and the International Court of Justice sided with Mauritius.
The treaty said the deal would “complete the process of decolonisation of Mauritius”.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said that “surrendering” the Chagos Islands to Mauritius “is an act of national self-harm”.
“It leaves us more exposed to China, and ignores the will of the Chagossian people. And we’re paying billions to do so,” she said.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage echoed those comments, accusing Sir Keir of caring more about foreign courts “than Britain’s national interest”.
The location of the Chagos Islands
‘Deal inherited from Tories’
However, Sir Keir said he “inherited a negotiation in which the principle of giving up UK sovereignty had already been conceded” by the Tories.
He said “all of the UK’s allies” support the deal, including the US, NATO, Five Eyes and India, and that those who are against it include “Russia, China, Iran…and surprisingly, the leader of the opposition, and Nigel Farage”.
Defence Secretary John Healey, who was also at the news conference, added that the last government failed to strike a deal despite 11 rounds of talks, leaving Labour to “pick up the challenge”.
He said ministers “toughened the terms and the protections and the control that Britain can exercise through this treaty”.
Under the deal’s terms, a 24-nautical mile buffer zone will be put in place around the island where nothing can be built or placed without UK consent.
The UK will retain full operational control of Diego Garcia, including the electromagnetic spectrum satellite used for communications which counters hostile interference.
Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, said he welcomed the “historic agreement”, saying it “secures the long-term, stable and effective operation of the joint US-UK military facility at Diego Garcia, which is critical to regional and global security”.
“We value both parties’ dedication. The US looks forward to our continued joint work to ensure the success of our shared operations,” he said.
The agreement had been due to be signed on Thursday morning but was temporarily blocked by an injunction hours before. A High Court Judge subsequently discharged the injunction at midday.
UK
Passengers injured after train hits trailer on level crossing near Leominster – as police arrest man
More than a dozen people have been injured after a train hit an agricultural trailer on a level crossing in Herefordshire, according to emergency services.
British Transport Police (BTP) said officers were called to the site north of Leominster at 10.40am on Thursday.
A man has been airlifted to hospital and a woman has also been taken to hospital.
A further 15 people, who were passengers on the train, were assessed by paramedics but discharged at the scene, West Midlands Ambulance Service said.
A spokesperson confirmed that nobody from the tractor-trailer required assessment.
Police have confirmed that a 32-year-old man from Bromyard has been arrested on suspicion of endangering safety on the railway.
Firefighters and officers from West Mercia Police also attended the scene.
A spokesperson for Transport for Wales (TfW) confirmed its 8.30am service between Manchester Piccadilly and Cardiff Central hit an “obstruction” at a crossing between Ludlow and Leominster.
All lines between the Hereford and Craven Arms stations are blocked and trains will not run between the two.
Replacement road transport is being put in place and TfW tickets are currently being accepted by Northern, Avanti, GWR and CrossCountry, it said.
Disruption is expected to last until the end of the day and a spokesperson for the company advised anyone travelling on Thursday to check before they travel.
A spokesperson for West Midlands Ambulance Service said it was “called to an incident on the railway track at Nordan Farm, Leominster, at 10.46am”.
“On arrival crews found a man who was a passenger on the train, they treated him for non-life threatening injuries before conveying him by air ambulance to Hereford County Hospital,” they added.
“A woman was also treated for injuries not believed to be serious and conveyed by land ambulance to Hereford County Hospital.”
The Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) said it had sent a team of inspectors to Leominster “between a passenger train and an agricultural trailer at a user worked level crossing”, which require people to operate the crossing themselves.
“Our inspectors will gather evidence as part of the process of conducting a preliminary examination and a decision on whether an investigation will be launched will be taken in the coming days,” the spokesperson added.
British Transport Police said its enquiries were ongoing into the full circumstances of the incident.
The economy will have to be “strong enough” for the government to U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts, the business secretary has said.
Jonathan Reynolds, talking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, also said the public would have to “wait for the actual budget” to make an announcement on it.
You can listen to the full interview on tomorrow’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast.
Sir Keir Starmer said on Wednesday he would ease the cut to the winter fuel payment, which has been removed from more than 10 million pensioners this winter after it became means-tested.
He and his ministers had insisted they would stick to their guns on the policy, even just hours before Sir Keir revealed his change of heart at Prime Minister’s Questions.
But Mr Reynolds revealed there is more at play to be able to change the policy.
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Winter fuel payment cuts to be reversed
“The economy has got to be strong enough to give you the capacity to make the kind of decisions people want us to see,” he said.
“We want people to know we’re listening.
“All the prime minister has said is ‘look, he’s listening, he’s aware of it.
“He wants a strong economy to be able to deliver for people.
“You’d have to wait for the actual budget to do that.”
Read more:
Gordon Brown suggests people on top income tax rate should be excluded from winter fuel
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has committed to just one major fiscal event a year, meaning just one annual budget in the autumn.
Autumn budgets normally take place in October, with the last one at the end of the month.
If this year’s budget is around the same date it will leave little time for the extra winter fuel payments to be made as they are paid between November and December.
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