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The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.

Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.

The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.

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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.

So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.

:: Is Labour set to win the next election?

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Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.

But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.

But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.

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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’

:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?

Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.

Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.

So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.

But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.

Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.

Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.

Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.

:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?

Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.

The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.

:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?

Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.

The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.

The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.

This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.

Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.

Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.

Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.

Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.

This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.

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‘Nothing short of spectacular’

:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?

Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.

This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.

That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.

But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.

So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.

They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.

:: How likely is a snap general election?

Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.

That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.

What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.

But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.

So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”

Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.

Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club
Image:
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner

:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?

Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.

On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.

Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.

Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.

So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.

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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?

Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.

Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.

Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.

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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge

:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?

Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.

We may hear the result later in the summer.

Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.

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Victims of maternity failings ‘disappointed’ with findings of damning report

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Victims of maternity failings 'disappointed' with findings of damning report

Victims of maternity failings say they’re “disappointed” with the findings of an interim report which they fear will have “no teeth” to make changes. 

An investigation into NHS maternity services is under way after a series of shocking scandals.

The National Maternity and Neonatal Investigation (NMNI) is being led by Baroness Amos, who said “nothing prepared her” for the amount of “unacceptable care” families currently receive.

A report has been released documenting her initial reflections and impressions after meeting families and visiting hospitals.

She will investigate 12 NHS trusts in total, including Oxford University Hospitals (OUH), which runs the world-renowned John Radcliffe Hospital.

‘I was left in my own blood’

Rebecca Matthews formed a campaign for families failed by OUH after her own traumatic births.

Asked to discuss the care she received, she said she “could only describe it as callous”.

“There wasn’t any kindness there. I was left in my own blood,” she added.

Ms Matthews recently took part in evidence-gathering sessions held by Baroness Amos.

But when she read her interim report, she said it was “disappointing”, as it appeared to be “a bullet point list of failings that actually we’ve seen time and time again in independent reviews”.

“The reflections don’t mention accountability at all,” she said.

Your stories of birth trauma

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Birth trauma: Your stories

‘Why are we struggling to provide?’

Based on her initial inquiries, Baroness Amos found common themes, including women not being listened to and being “disregarded” when they raised concerns.

Many weren’t given the right information to make informed choices about their care.

She was told of discrimination against women of colour, working-class mothers, or parents who were younger.

A “staggering” 748 recommendations have been made about NHS maternity services in recent years, Baroness Amos revealed – and she does “not understand why change has been so slow”.

She asked: “Why are we in England still struggling to provide safe, reliable maternity and neonatal care everywhere in the country?”

Baroness Valerie Amos. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Baroness Valerie Amos. Pic: Reuters

The most recent health watchdog findings paint a depressing picture of maternity services.

Almost two-thirds of acute hospital maternity services were judged either inadequate or required improvement for safety.

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This investigation is long overdue and isn’t due to report back fully until the spring.

But some campaigners are already worried it won’t bring meaningful change to maternity services.

Ms Matthews said it “seems as though it’s heading the same way that other reviews have gone in the past, leading to some recommendations but no teeth”.

“We need some mechanisms that are going to hold people and systems to account,” she said.

‘More to do’

OUH chief nurse Yvonne Christley said in a statement that “feedback received from patients using our maternity service over the last year is positive overall”.

“However, we know we have more to do to improve our maternity services,” she added.

“Our present focus is on listening to the experiences of women and families, which is helping us to identify opportunities for improvement.”

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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Royal Navy chief gives stark warning: Fund defence or risk losing Atlantic to Russia

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Royal Navy chief gives stark warning: Fund defence or risk losing Atlantic to Russia

The head of the Royal Navy has warned the government to “step up” and fund defence or risk losing the UK’s superiority in the Atlantic to Russia.

Should that happen, General Sir Gwyn Jenkins said it would be the first time since the end of the Second World War that Britain’s warships and submarines were not the dominant force in their most vital sea lanes alongside their allies.

“We are holding on, but not by much,” he told a conference in London on Monday.

“There is no room for complacency. Our would-be opponents are investing billions. We have to step up, or we will lose that advantage.”

As a senior, serving military officer speaking publicly, he did not make any direct criticism of the speed of plans by Sir Keir Starmer’s government to increase defence spending.

But Sky News has reported that he and his fellow chiefs held a “very difficult meeting” last month over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts.

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Budget: what about defence spending?

Defence sources said there was growing concern at the very top of the armed forces about a gap between the promises being made by the prime minister to fix the UK’s hollowed-out defences and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise and transform the armed forces might need to be curbed, despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China, and pressure from Donald Trump on allies to spend more on their own defences.

A Sky News and Tortoise podcast series called The Wargame tracks the hollowing out of the UK’s military since the end of the Cold War and the risk that has created.

👉Search for The Wargame on your podcast app👈

General Jenkins, the first Royal Marine to serve as First Sea Lord, used a speech at the Sea Power Conference to say that Russia is still investing billions in its naval capabilities – in particular the Northern Fleet that operates in the Atlantic – even as it wages war against Ukraine.

There has been a 30% increase in Russian incursions in the North Atlantic in the past two years, he said.

That included the Yantar spy ship, which last month was spotted off the coast of Scotland and even shone a laser at the pilots of a Royal Air Force reconnaissance plane that was tracking the vessel.

The Russian spy ship Yantar. Pic: MOD/PA
Image:
The Russian spy ship Yantar. Pic: MOD/PA

Yet General Jenkins said what Russia is doing beneath the surface of the waves, where the UK and its allies store vital communications cables as well as critical oil and gas pipelines, was even more concerning.

“I can also tell you today that the advantage that we have enjoyed in the Atlantic since the end of the Second World War is at risk,” he said.

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HMS Iron Duke shadowing the Russian Frigate Neustrashimy through UK waters in September. Pic: PA
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HMS Iron Duke shadowing the Russian Frigate Neustrashimy through UK waters in September. Pic: PA

Navy facing huge challenges

It is a particularly tough time for the navy, which has more ships and submarines alongside and unable to operate than at sea or at least ready to sail.

The service is also suffering from a shortage of sailors and in particular submariners, which again is impacting the availability of the fleet.

The crisis follows decades of funding cuts since the end of the Cold War, compounded by a litany of botched procurement programmes that has all too often seen vessels coming into service years late, at an inflated price and in too few numbers.

Vision of ‘hybrid navy’

Despite the sombre tone, the First Sea Lord set out how he wants to transform his service and make it ready to fight a war – though not until 2029, a timeline that could be too slow if some predictions about the threat posed by Russia to NATO are correct.

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New UK military technology unveiled

His vision – working with industry and other allies – is about developing a blend of manned ships and submarines as well as unmanned ones – a “hybrid navy”.

He is also stripping back what he called the navy’s own bureaucracies to enable the service to move much faster – crucially at the pace of the threat and the pace of rapid and growing technological change.

“We will face headwinds, we will face rough seas, but together, we can solve these problems if we have the appetite, if we have the determination, and if we have the mindset.”

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Teen Afghan asylum seekers locked up for raping girl

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Teen Afghan asylum seekers locked up for raping girl

Two teenage asylum seekers from Afghanistan face possible deportation after being detained for abducting and raping a 15-year-old girl.

Jan Jahanzeb and Israr Niazal, both 17, led the “highly-distressed” victim away from friends near Leamington town centre to a secluded “den-type” area in parkland, where they pushed her to the ground and attacked her.

Sentencing the pair at Warwick Crown Court on Monday, Judge Sylvia de Bertodano said they ignored the victim’s “vigorous protests” and told them what they did “changed her life forever”.

“No child should have to suffer the ordeal that she suffered. It’s clear from the footage we have seen that no one can seriously entertain the thought that you believed she was consenting,” she said.

“You both knew perfectly well that what you were doing was criminal and wrong,” the judge added.

‘Highly distressing’

After lifting reporting restrictions protecting the identities of the defendants, the judge told them they had “betrayed” those who come to Britain seeking sanctuary and who observed the law.

Both defendants were unaccompanied child asylum seekers who arrived in the UK last year, prosecutor Shawn Williams said.

The incident happened in May of this year.

“Highly distressing” phone video found by police showed the victim screamed for help, but Jahanzeb placed his hand over her mouth.

CCTV footage showed that after being led away against her will, the terrified victim was “moved to a bushy den-type area – a really secluded location” before, according to her, she was “pushed to her knees before being raped”.

“The prosecution case is that it was probably Jahanzeb that did that, but what is certain is that Israr Niazal was present and participating,” Mr Williams said.

The victim had made “explicit verbal protests” during what Mr Williams described as an abduction.

What are their sentences?

Jahanzeb, who has already been served with deportation notification papers, was given 10 years, eight months’ youth detention.

Niazal, who may also be deported, was sentenced to nine years and 10 months.

They will start their sentences in a young offenders’ institution and move to prison at a later date, police said.

Both pleaded guilty to rape at an earlier hearing.

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Detective Chief Inspector Richard Hobbs said the offenders “went out of their way to befriend the victim with the intention of raping her”.

“The length of their sentence reflects the severity of their crime and the need to protect the public from them,” he added.

After sentence was passed, Judge de Bertodano said the victim had been “beyond brave” in attending court at a previous stage, when the defendants had intended to plead not guilty.

They were both ordered to register as sex offenders.

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