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The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.

Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.

The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.

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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.

So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.

:: Is Labour set to win the next election?

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Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.

But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.

But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.

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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’

:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?

Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.

Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.

So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.

But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.

Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.

Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.

Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.

:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?

Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.

The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.

:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?

Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.

The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.

The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.

This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.

Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.

Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.

Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.

Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.

This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.

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‘Nothing short of spectacular’

:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?

Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.

This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.

That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.

But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.

So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.

They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.

:: How likely is a snap general election?

Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.

That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.

What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.

But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.

So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”

Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.

Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club
Image:
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner

:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?

Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.

On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.

Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.

Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.

So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.

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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?

Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.

Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.

Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.

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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge

:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?

Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.

We may hear the result later in the summer.

Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.

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Palace confirms dates of Trump’s state visit – as King and Queen to host him at Windsor Castle

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Palace confirms dates of Trump's state visit - as King and Queen to host him at Windsor Castle

The dates for Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK have been announced, with the US president due to be welcomed by the King from 17 to 19 September.

Buckingham Palace also confirmed that President Trump and first lady Melania will be hosted by the King and Queen at Windsor Castle.

It was expected that the three-day state visit would take place in September after Mr Trump let slip earlier in April that he believed that was when his second “fest” was being planned for.

Windsor was also anticipated to be the location after the US president told reporters in the Oval Office that the letter from the King said Windsor would be the setting. Refurbishment works at Buckingham Palace also meant that Windsor was used last week for French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit.

This will be Mr Trump’s second state visit to the UK, an unprecedented gesture towards an American leader, having previously been invited to Buckingham Palace in 2019.

Donald Trump and Melania Trump pose with Prince Charles and Camilla in 2019
Image:
Donald Trump and Melania Trump posing with Charles and Camilla in 2019. Pic: Reuters

He has also been to Windsor Castle before, in 2018, but despite the considerable military pageantry of the day, and some confusion around inspecting the guard, it was simply for tea with Queen Elizabeth II.

Further details of what will happen during the three-day visit in September will be announced in due course.

More on Donald Trump

On Friday, Sky News revealed it is now unlikely that the US president will address parliament, usually an honour given to visiting heads of state as part of their visit. Some MPs had raised significant concerns about him being given the privilege.

But the House of Commons will not be sitting at the time of Mr Trump’s visit as it will rise for party conference season on the 16 September, meaning the president will not be able to speak in parliament as President Macron did during his state visit this week. However, the House of Lords will be sitting.

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Labour MP: ‘Trump isn’t welcome here’

In February this year, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer presented the US president with the letter from the King inviting him to visit during a meeting at the White House.

After reading it, Mr Trump said it was a “great, great honour”, adding “and that says at Windsor – that’s really something”.

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a letter from Britain's King Charles as he meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque     TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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In February, Sir Keir Starmer revealed a letter from the King inviting Donald Trump to the UK. Pic: Reuters

In the letter, the King suggested they might meet at Balmoral or Dumfries House in Scotland first before the much grander state visit. However, it is understood that, although all options were explored, complexities in both the King and Mr Trump’s diaries meant it wasn’t possible.

Read more from Sky News:
Is the UK ready for a ‘Trump-fest’?
Elton and Jagger at royal banquet
King and Trump won’t hold private meeting

This week, it emerged that Police Scotland are planning for a summer visit from the US president, which is likely to see him visit one or both of his golf clubs in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire, and require substantial policing resources and probably units to be called in from elsewhere in the UK.

Precedent for second-term US presidents, who have already made a state visit, is usually tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle, as was the case for George W Bush and Barack Obama.

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Fireball at Southend Airport after small plane crashes

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Fireball at Southend Airport after small plane crashes

A small plane has crashed at Southend Airport in Essex.

Essex Police said it was at the scene of a “serious incident”.

Images posted online showed huge flames and a large cloud of black smoke, with one witness saying they saw a “fireball”.

A police statement said: “We were alerted shortly before 4pm to reports of a collision involving one 12-metre plane.

“We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours.

“We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues.”

Fireball after plane crash at Southend Airport. Pic: Ben G
Image:
A huge fireball near the airport. Pic: Ben G

It has been reported that the plane involved in the incident is a Beech B200 Super King Air.

According to flight-tracking service Flightradar, it took off at 3.48pm and was bound for Lelystad, a city in the Netherlands.

One man, who was at Southend Airport with his family around the time of the incident, said the aircraft “crashed headfirst into the ground”.

John Johnson said: “About three or four seconds after taking off, it started to bank heavily to its left, and then within a few seconds of that happening, it more or less inverted and crashed.

“There was a big fireball. Obviously, everybody was in shock in terms of witnessing it. All the kids saw it and the families saw it.”

Mr Johnson added that he phoned 999 to report the crash.

Southend Airport said the incident involved “a general aviation aircraft”.

Four flights scheduled to take off from Southend this afternoon were cancelled, according to its website.

Flightradar data shows two planes that had been due to land at Southend were diverted to nearby airports London Gatwick and London Stansted.

Smoke rising near Southend airport. Pic: UKNIP
Image:
Plumes of black smoke. Pic: UKNIP

Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said four crews, along with off-road vehicles, have attended the scene.

Four ambulances and four hazardous area response team vehicles are also at the airport, as well as an air ambulance, the East of England Ambulance Service said.

Its statement described the incident as “still developing”.

Fire engines at the scene at Southend Airport
Image:
Fire engines at the airport

David Burton-Sampson, the MP for Southend West and Leigh, posted on social media: “I am aware of an incident at Southend Airport. Please keep away and allow the emergency services to do their work.

“My thoughts are with everyone involved.”

Local councillor Matt Dent said on X: “At present all I know is that a small plane has crashed at the airport. My thoughts are with all those involved, and with the emergency services currently responding to the incident.”

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget

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Heidi Alexander says 'fairness' will be government's 'guiding principle' when it comes to taxes at next budget

Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.

Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.

Politics Hub: Catch up on the latest

Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.

Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.

“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”

Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.

“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”

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Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”

He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.

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Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France

Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.

Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.

Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.

With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.

The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.

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