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The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.

Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.

The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.

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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.

So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.

:: Is Labour set to win the next election?

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Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.

But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.

But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.

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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’

:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?

Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.

Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.

So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.

But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.

Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.

Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.

Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.

:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?

Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.

The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.

:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?

Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.

The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.

The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.

This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.

Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.

Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.

Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.

Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.

This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.

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‘Nothing short of spectacular’

:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?

Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.

This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.

That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.

But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.

So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.

They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.

:: How likely is a snap general election?

Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.

That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.

What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.

But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.

So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”

Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.

Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club
Image:
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner

:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?

Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.

On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.

Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.

Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.

So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.

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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?

Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.

Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.

Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.

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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge

:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?

Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.

We may hear the result later in the summer.

Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.

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Why suspended Labour MPs clearly hit a nerve with Starmer

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Why suspended Labour MPs clearly hit a nerve with Starmer

After a tricky few weeks for the government, in which backbenchers overturned plans to cut back welfare spending, now a heavy hand to get the party into line.

Three newly-elected MPs, Neil Duncan-Jordan, MP for Poole, Brian Leishman, MP for the new Alloa and Grangemouth constituency, and Chris Hinchcliff, for North East Herefordshire, have all had the whip suspended.

Rachael Maskell, MP for York Central, who was first elected a decade ago, is the fourth.

Politics latest: Labour MP ‘appalled’ after Starmer suspends rebels

They will all sit as independent MPs and will not be allowed to stand for Labour at the next election, unless readmitted. All appear to be surprised – and upset.

Three more have lost plum roles as trade enjoys – Dr Rosena Allin-Khan, Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Mohammed Yasin, all on the left of the party.

All were active in the rebellion against the government’s welfare reforms, and voted against the changes even after a series of U-turns – but were among 47 Labour MPs who did so.

When MPs were told after the welfare vote that Number 10 was “fully committed to engaging with parliamentarians”, this was not what they were expecting.

We’re told the reasons for these particular suspensions go wider – over “persistent breaches of party discipline” – although most are not high profile.

In the scheme of things, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell rebelled against the Labour whip hundreds of times under New Labour, without being suspended.

But these MPs’ pointed criticism of the Starmer strategy has clearly hit a nerve.

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Suspended MP: ‘There are lines I will not cross’

Maskell – who was referred to, jokingly, in the House of Commons earlier this month by Tory MP Danny Kruger as “the real prime minister” – led the rebellion against cuts to winter fuel allowance which triggered a U-turn which she said would still leave pensioners in fuel poverty.

There was an attack on the government’s values. Duncan-Jordan, a trade unionist who won the Poole seat by just 18 votes, led the welfare rebellion, telling Sky News the proposed cutbacks were “not a very Labour thing to do”.

Hinchliff, who has also opposed the government’s housebuilding strategy and plans to expand Luton airport,had told his local paper he was willing to lose the whip over welfare cuts if necessary. He also has a marginal seat, won by fewer than 2,000 votes.

Read more:
Who are the suspended Labour MPs?

Leishman, a former pro golfer, has also been vocal about government plans to close the refinery in his Grangemouth constituency after promising to try and make it viable. They are MPs who the leadership fear are going for broke – and that’s concerning as more tough decisions on spending are likely to come.

But after a poorly-handled welfare vote, in which MPs seemed to be in the driving seat forcing changes, will this instil a sense of discipline over the summer break?

While some MPs will see this as a deterrent to rebellion, for those whose chances of re-election are small, it may continue to be seen as a price worth paying.

To other Labour MPs, the move is confusing and may be counter-productive. One Labour MP on the left told me: “So, we’re suspending people for winning an argument with the government?”

Another, in the centre, feared it looked divisive, saying: “We need to go into the summer focused on the opposition – not involved in our melodramas.”

Number 10 wants to show rebelling comes at a price – but many Labour MPs with concerns about their political direction will want to know the prime minister is planning to listen to concerns before it gets to that point.

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‘Betrayed’ Afghan interpreter says family ‘waiting for death’ under Taliban after UK military data breach

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'Betrayed' Afghan interpreter says family 'waiting for death' under Taliban after UK military data breach

An Afghan interpreter who worked with the British military has told Sky News he feels “betrayed by the British government” after a massive data breach saw his personal details revealed.

Ali, whose name has been changed to protect his identity, had long suspected his details had been shared with the Taliban – but found out just yesterday that he was a victim of the breach three years ago.

He is now even more fearful for the lives of family members still in Afghanistan, who are already in hiding from the Taliban.

Ali worked alongside British soldiers in Helmand Province to help them speak with Afghan people. His job also involved listening in on Taliban radio communications and translating them for the British forces.

“The Taliban called us the British eyes,” he told Sky News. “Because they think if we are not on the ground with them, the British force cannot do anything.

“They know that you’re listening to their chatting and the British forces are acting according to our translation. We were always the first target and our job was always full of risk.”

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Here’s what the public couldn’t know until now.

After the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021, Ali – who had already suffered injuries after the Taliban targeted him with a car bomb – was brought to the UK through the British government’s Afghan Resettlement Programme (ARP) for his own protection.

Once in the UK, he began to suspect his data had been leaked after his father “died because the Taliban took him into custody and beat him”.

Ali contacted the Ministry of Defence to raise concerns over his personal information last year, and stated in an email that he was “terrified”, adding: “I beg of you, do not pass this information to anyone.”

“They just ignored what I told them and they never replied,” he said.

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Afghans being relocated after data breach

‘The Taliban want me’

Following confirmation that the data breach did take place, Ali is even more scared for the lives of his family members who have already been in hiding from the Taliban for around five months.

I’m feeling terrible and frustrated,” he said. “My family’s details have been shared with the Taliban intelligence forces and now they are looking for them.

“Every day, every single minute, my family’s waiting for their death, because if anyone comes to knock the door, they think that that is the Taliban.”

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Ali has twice applied for his family to be relocated to the UK but both applications have been rejected. He is now renewing his call for the British government to move his loved ones.

“I have carried the body of the British soldier,” he said. “I feel betrayed by the British government. They should relocate my family to a safe place.”

Read more:
Afghan man pleads for King’s help after data leak
How Afghan data breach unfolded
‘Serious questions to answer’ over data breach, says PM

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Ali has decided he will return to his homeland to help his family if they are not granted legal passage to the UK.

“If we don’t win [the case], I have decided I want to go back to Afghanistan and finish this,” he said. “The Taliban want me. If the British government can’t save my family, then I have this one responsibility to go and save them.

“I don’t want my family being killed for something they didn’t do.”

Sky News has contacted the Ministry of Defence for comment.

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Weather: Temperatures set to hit 30C in parts of UK this week

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Weather: Temperatures set to hit 30C in parts of UK this week

Temperatures are set to hit 30C in some parts of the UK this week.

Highs of 28C can be expected on Thursday before temperatures are forecast to peak at 30C in London on Friday, Met Office meteorologist Jonathan Vautrey said.

Other areas in southeast England will push towards the high 20s on Friday, where the average temperature in July is around 23C.

Find out the weather forecast for where you are

“We’re starting to see south-westerly winds come in, that’s bringing in hotter and more humid conditions, particularly in southern areas, we are going to see temperatures climbing again,” Mr Vautrey said.

“Friday is looking to be the peak of the current hot spell. This heat is not going to be as widespread as what we’ve just come out of, areas to the north aren’t going to be seeing the same highs.”

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Much of England at risk of drought

But the weather is set to turn later in the week, with a chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms across the UK on the weekend, Mr Vautrey said.

Temperatures will start to slowly drop but are still expected to reach 28C or 29C on Saturday and 25C on Sunday.

It comes after temperatures soared past 30C in parts of the UK last week – as the country had its third heatwave of the year.

A yellow thunderstorm warning has been issued for much of Northern Ireland from 11am until 8pm on Thursday, and this unsettled weather is forecast to spread across more of the UK.

Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms may cause some disruption, particularly to travel, with between 30mm and 40mm of rainfall over a few hours in Northern Ireland, the Met Office said.

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Is this the UK’s hottest year?

Meanwhile, Southern Water has become the latest company to bring in a hosepipe ban as England battles exceptionally dry weather.

Restrictions like watering gardens, filling paddling pools or washing cars would come in for households in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight from Monday, the company said.

Read more:
Extreme UK weather ‘becoming the norm’

East and West Midlands officially in drought – which areas could be next?
Hosepipe bans hit more households – what you need to know

It has been the driest start to the year since 1976 for England, causing many water companies to bring in hosepipe bans.

Rainfall across England was 20% less than the long-term average for June, the Environment Agency said. This June was the hottest on record for the country.

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