By-election results: Your questions answered after Tories lose two seats but cling onto a third
The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.
Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.
The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.
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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.
So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.
:: Is Labour set to win the next election?
Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.
But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.
But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.
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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’
:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?
Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.
Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.
So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.
But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.
Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.
Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.
Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.
:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?
Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.
The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.
:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?
Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.
The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.
The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.
This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.
Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.
Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.
Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.
Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.
This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.
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‘Nothing short of spectacular’
:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?
Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.
This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.
That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.
But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.
So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.
They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.
:: How likely is a snap general election?
Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.
That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.
What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.
But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.
So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”
Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner
:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?
Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.
On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.
Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.
Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.
So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.
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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?
Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.
Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.
Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.
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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge
:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?
Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.
We may hear the result later in the summer.
Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.
A trove of newly released Epstein files include emails that appear to involve Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, while another suggests Donald Trump travelled on the billionaire’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.
The US Department of Justice released at least 11,000 more files on Tuesday.
It went on to claim that some of them “contain untrue and sensationalist claims” about President Trump.
Here are some of the latest news lines from this release of Epstein files. Being named in these papers does not suggest wrongdoing.
Who is ‘The Invisible Man’?
Among the documents released is an email sent to Ghislaine Maxwell that speaks about “the girls” being “completely shattered” at a Royal Family summer camp at Balmoral.
It is dated 16 August 2001 and sent by a person referred to as “The Invisible Man”, who signed off the message as “A” – and is believed to be Andrew.
Sky News has come to that conclusion from reviewing the email address used, which is assigned to the Duke of York in Epstein’s contacts book and the chain of correspondence.
In the correspondence, “The Invisible Man” asks Maxwell: “How’s LA? Have you found me some new inappropriate friends?”
Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any allegations against him.
The Peru trip
Another email appears to show Maxwell arranging “two-legged sight seeing” for “The Invisible Man” during a trip to Peru.
She appears to forward to “The Invisible Man” part of a conversation between herself and another person.
The email says: “I just gave Andrew your telephone no. He is interested in seeing the Nazca lines. He can ride but it is not his favorite sport ie pass on the horses.”
“Some sight seeing some 2 legged sight seeing (read intelligent pretty fun and from good families) and he will be very happy. I know I can rely on you to show him a wonderful time and will only introduce him to friends that you can trust,” Maxwell said.
The context of the email is unclear and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing.
Trump on Epstein’s jet?
The latest bunch of files also includes an email from an unidentified prosecutor dated 7 January, 2020, in which President Trump is mentioned.
The email accuses him of travelling on Epstein’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.
It adds that President Trump “is listed as a passenger on at least eight flights between 1993 and 1996, including at least four flights on which Maxwell was also present”.
The email’s sender and receiver have been redacted. However, at the bottom of the email it says assistant US attorney, Southern District of New York. The name has also been redacted.
President Trump has denied any wrongdoing in relation to his relationship with Epstein, and being on any of Epstein’s flights does not indicate any wrongdoing.
Read more:
Trump defends ‘big boy’ Clinton after Epstein files release
Why Andrew photo in Epstein files is awkward for Royal Family
Limousine driver report about Trump
One of the documents in the release shows a report made to the FBI that was recorded on 27 October 2020.
It includes an unverified claim by a limousine driver that he overheard the US president discussing “abusing some girl” in 1995.
The driver also mentions Trump said “Jeffrey” while on the phone during a journey to Dallas Fort Worth Airport in Texas.
A significant part of the statement, along with the driver’s identity, has been redacted.
The US justice department has said that some of the documents in the latest Epstein files release “contain untrue and sensationalist claims made against President Trump that were submitted to the FBI right before the 2020 election”.
“To be clear: the claims are unfounded and false, and if they had a shred of credibility, they certainly would have been weaponized against President Trump already,” it said.
Postcard mentions ‘our president’
Also among the documents is a postcard that claims to have been sent by Jeffrey Epstein, but has been refuted by the justice department.
In it, the sender tells the recipient: “Our president also shares our love of young, nubile girls.”
It’s not clear who “our president” refers to and the context of the postcard is also unclear.
The US justice department initially said it was “looking into the validity” of the postcard but later said on X that the “FBI has confirmed” the postcard is “FAKE”.
It cited reasons including a claim that the writing does not appear to match Epstein’s and another that the letter was postmarked three days after his death.
Row over unreleased documents
It is believed that many files relating to Epstein are yet to be made public.
There has been anger at the justice department’s slow release of the files, with politicians threatening to launch legal action against Attorney General Pam Bondi.
The deadline for the release of all the documents has passed.
“The DOJ needs to quit protecting the rich, powerful, and politically connected,” Republican congressman Thomas Massie said.
The prime minister has acknowledged Britons’ cost-of-living struggles in his Christmas message – and vowed that helping with the issue is his “priority”.
Sir Keir Starmer also urged members of the public to “each do our bit” and “reach out” to friends, relatives and neighbours during the festive period.
His message comes at the end of a difficult year for his government, with economic growth stuttering and Chancellor Rachel Reeves facing criticism over tax rises in the budget.
In a message recorded inside 10 Downing Street, Sir Keir said: “I know many across Britain are still struggling with the cost of living. Helping with that is my priority.
“But at this time of the year, which celebrates love and abundance, loss or hardship can feel even more acute.
“So call around to a neighbour. Check in on a friend or a relative who you haven’t heard from for a while. Reach out. It can make a huge difference.
“That is what Christmas is about.”
Sir Keir Starmer delivers his Christmas message from inside Downing Street. Pic: Downing Street
The prime minister thanked NHS workers along with members of the military and the emergency services who will be on duty on Christmas Day.
“Just as so many put their feet up, some truly special people will be pulling on their uniforms and heading out to work,” he said.
“Our NHS staff emergency services and the brave men and women of our armed forces, all playing their part, doing their bit to care for the nation and to keep us safe.
“Many volunteers will be out there as well. Serving food. Reaching out to help those lonely or in need.
“So on behalf of the whole country, I want to say a big thank you.
“As a nation, we should raise a glass to you this Christmas. But more than that, we should each do our bit as well.”
Read more from Sky News:
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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch used her Christmas message to talk about “Christian values” and thanked “everyone who has supported me during my first year as leader of the opposition”.
“It’s been the biggest challenge of my life,” she said. “But it’s also been a wonderful year. I can’t wait to get back to work next year to create a better United Kingdom.”
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey spoke about the Christmas tree in London’s Trafalgar Square – an annual gift from Norway to thank the UK for its support during the Second World War – in his message.
While saying the tree may “look a little underwhelming” on first glance, the Liberal Democrat leader said it was a reminder of “friendship and loyalty”.
He added: “It makes me think about people standing together in tough times – whether against the Nazis in the 1940s, or right now in Ukraine.
“And yeah, it might not be perfect, but this tree in Trafalgar Square makes me think about families and friends looking out for one another right here at home.
“I can’t think of a better symbol of the Christmas spirit of generosity, love and hope. Of light in the darkness.”
UK
Details of King Charles’s Christmas message revealed – as he chooses to deliver it away from palace
A photograph has been released by Buckingham Palace showing the King delivering his Christmas message again outside of traditional palace walls.
This year the annual address was filmed in the Lady Chapel inside Westminster Abbey, the second time the monarch has recorded it away from a royal residence.
The palace has revealed the abbey was chosen for the setting this year to reflect a major theme of the message, pilgrimage.
The Lady Chapel in Westminster Abbey, central London. Pic: PA
The full details of what he says are always kept secret until it is broadcast at 3pm on Christmas Day. The message is always seen as a deeply personal one from the monarch, as a rare speech delivered by the King without advice from, or consultation with, the government.
Westminster Abbey was seen as a perfect location to reflect the theme of pilgrimage with pilgrims visiting every year to remember the legacy of Edward the Confessor, whose shrine lies at the heart of the abbey. Around the walls of the Lady Chapel are 95 statues of saints dating from the building of the chapel in the 16th century.
Pic: PA
The abbey, as the site of the King’s own coronation and that of every monarch since 1066, also has royal significance. The Henry VII Lady Chapel is the burial place of 15 Kings and Queens including Elizabeth I, Mary I and Mary Queen of Scots. Below the central aisle is the Hanoverian vault where George II and members of his family are buried. The Stuart vault is in the south aisle where Charles II, William III and Mary II, and Queen Anne lie buried.
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It is understood the King takes a particular interest in where the message is filmed each year, favouring different locations outside of royal palaces over the past two years.
In the photograph, taken during filming, you can also see brightly lit Christmas trees used for another royal event in December. They were still inside the abbey following the filming of the Princess of Wales’s Together at Christmas carol service, which will be broadcast on Christmas Eve.
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