Connect with us

Published

on

The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.

Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.

The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.

Politics latest: Minister a ‘twit’ for Inbetweeners remark about new MP, says Labour frontbencher

Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.

So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.

:: Is Labour set to win the next election?

More on Rishi Sunak

Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.

But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.

But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’

:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?

Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.

Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.

So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.

But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.

Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.

Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.

Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.

:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?

Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.

The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.

:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?

Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.

The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.

The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.

This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.

Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.

Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.

Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.

Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.

This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Nothing short of spectacular’

:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?

Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.

This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.

That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.

But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.

So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.

They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.

:: How likely is a snap general election?

Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.

That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.

What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.

But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.

So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”

Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.

Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club
Image:
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner

:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?

Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.

On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.

Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.

Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.

So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?

Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.

Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.

Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge

:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?

Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.

We may hear the result later in the summer.

Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.

Continue Reading

UK

Biggest schools shake-up in a decade to cut GCSE exam time – and add AI and fake news lessons

Published

on

By

Biggest schools shake-up in a decade to cut GCSE exam time - and add AI and fake news lessons

The government has announced it will cut GCSE exam time by up to three hours per student.

The final report from a curriculum and assessment review – commissioned by Labour last year, and the biggest of its kind for a decade – recommends cutting the overall volume of exams at Key Stage 4 by 10%, ruling the current amount as “excessive”.

It also calls for the introduction of new maths and English tests in Year 8 to help teachers identify learning gaps sooner, the addition of mandatory citizenship lessons in primary schools, and a major overhaul of the Key Stage 2 grammar, punctuation, and spelling test.

AI among new subjects

The reforms to the national curriculum will also include a focus on AI and data science for post-16 students.

For the first time, primary-aged children will be taught how to spot fake news and identify misinformation and disinformation. This will help them develop their critical thinking skills and protect them when online.

Primary pupils will also learn more about the fundamentals of money. The review recognises that children are now consumers often before they reach secondary school.

A new compulsory reading test in Year 8 will be introduced. This will be in addition to a writing assessment in Year 6, as well as SATs, to identify pupils who need extra support.

Is another exam in Year 8 the right move?

Anjum Peerbacos

Education reporter

Are more exams the only way standards can be improved?

Primary colleagues have said SATs are not the best way to assess children. Previously, primary teachers have taken industrial action over this issue.

There is a danger this additional exam will exacerbate an exam factory culture which already exists in many schools. As a former secondary school teacher and parent I have seen first-hand how many hours of exams the system expects fifteen and sixteen-year-olds to do for their GCSEs.

There has been a huge rise in issues in young people’s mental health and the topic of exams is one of huge stress for young people. To introduce another compulsory exam seems rather short-sighted.

Exams are not the only way to drive up standards for young people and improve their life chances. Is the new system setting up another opportunity to fail?

Schools will also be expected to work towards offering triple science GCSE as standard.

This comes alongside the government exploring a new qualification for 16-18 year olds in data science and AI, with a view to encourage more young people into science and tech careers.

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said the changes “will help young people step boldly into the future, with the knowledge to achieve and the skills to thrive as the world around us continues to rapidly evolve”.

Read more from Sky News:
The 100-year trend that may be about to break

Additionally, the government will publish an oracy framework to help ensure more young people become confident and effective speakers, building on the success of existing reading and writing frameworks.

It is also committed to ensuring all pupils retain access to sport and the arts.

Continue Reading

UK

‘Human error’ may have led to grooming gangs investigations being dropped, review says

Published

on

By

'Human error' may have led to grooming gangs investigations being dropped, review says

A major review to unearth failures to tackle grooming gangs has found that potential human error led to some police investigations being dropped.

The review – named Operation Beaconport – is looking into cases between 1 January 2010 and 31 March this year.

Thousands of cases are expected to come under scrutiny.

So far, 1,273 files from 23 police forces have been referred to the review, led by the National Crime Agency (NCA), of which 236 are being examined as a priority because they involve allegations of rape.

NCA deputy director Nigel Leary said initial reviews suggest there were mistakes in some investigations.

He said: “Initial reviews have identified that in some cases where there has been a decision to take no further action (NFA), there were available lines of inquiry that could have been pursued.

“We’ve seen in those cases what appears to be potentially human error.”

Mr Leary said that in some cases the inquiries haven’t followed what the NCA would characterise as “proper investigative practice”.

“That includes, for example, lines of inquiry being identified but not being followed, victim accounts not being taken in a way that we would recognise as best practice, and suspects not being pursued or interviewed in the ways that we would anticipate,” he said.

Read more from Sky News:
Hull grooming gangs investigation reopened
Officers taken off Hull grooming gangs investigation

Last month, the Metropolitan Police announced officers were reviewing 9,000 cases of child sexual exploitation.

It is expected that some of these will be referred to Operation Beaconport, which is looking at cases involving two or more suspects, more than one victim, contact offences, where the suspects are still alive, and that have not already been independently reviewed.

The investigation into grooming gangs and other non-familial sexual abuse in Rotherham between 1997 and 2013, Operation Stovewood, has cost £89m over 11 years. It is not clear how much the latest investigation will cost.

However, Mr Leary said it would be the “most comprehensive investigation of its type in UK history”, with the NCA estimating thousands of officers will be involved in the overall operation.

Victims will fear that wrongs are discovered, but not righted

There is already a system in place for what are known as “non-recent” sexual abuse cases to be reviewed called Operation Hydrant.

But the NCA is looking to identify cases in the last five years, which could show that women and girls are still being failed by police forces. 

Worryingly, the NCA says it has “already identified investigations that were incorrectly closed with no further action taken” as police chiefs are ordered to hand over their files in hundreds of closed cases under powers unique to the NCA.

This often comes with mixed feelings for the survivors. When Sky News investigated a closed case called Operation Marksman into an alleged grooming gang in Hull in 2021 – the case was reopened. A review team found the initial investigation was “flawed” and a new team in Humberside was ordered to re-investigate. 

But, two years on, the young women involved told Sky News they were angry and frustrated to discover the new team had only just finished going through the original files. What is more, evidence gets old – phones and laptops get swapped and deleted, DNA evidence has long disappeared.

This will run alongside the government’s national public inquiry, which has faltered after two potential chairs pulled out due to pressure from victims on the inquiry panel. 

With police resources stretched in many directions, what may happen is wrongs are discovered but not righted.

However, encouragingly, this isn’t just a review exercise by the NCA but also an effort to learn from mistakes, improve methodology, share more data which, if done well, could build a better success rate.

Officials are recording the ethnicity of suspects and victims as part of the review, and have found gaps in the existing data that they are trying to fill.

As they examine cases, they aim to flag any dangerous suspects, and any that are at risk of fleeing the UK.

Investigators have vowed to be “honest and transparent” with victims from the start, to avoid giving them unrealistic expectations.

Richard Fewkes, from the National Police Chiefs’ Council, said while going after perpetrators is important, some victims will just want to feel they are being listened to.

He said: “Justice means different things for different victims and survivors, and no one victim and survivor is the same.

“For some, justice is just being believed, perhaps for the first time, by someone in authority – being listened to.

“Or it might even be understanding that the review has taken place, a reinvestigation has taken place in an appropriate, focused, robust way, but nothing more can be done.

“For some that is justice in their mind.”

Continue Reading

UK

Number of female MPs could plummet for first time if no action taken

Published

on

By

Number of female MPs could plummet for first time if no action taken

The number of female MPs could plummet for the first time in more than a century if action is not taken now, campaigners have warned.

If Reform UK, which has led voting intention polls since April, or the Conservatives, win the next general election, women’s representation would fall drastically.

Politics Hub: Latest updates and analysis

A Labour win would stall the current percentage of female MPs, which stands at its highest ever at 41% (264 out of 650) – but is still lower than the UK population, of which 51% are women.

If Reform win the next election, set for 2029, women’s representation could fall to 26%, analysis of Electoral Calculus polling data by 50:50 Parliament found.

If the Tories win, 33% of MPs would be women, while Labour would remain the same.

What does history tell us?

Every parliament since women were allowed to be MPs in 1918 has seen an increase, apart from small drops in 1950, 1979 and 2001.

Nancy Astor was the first woman to take her seat in the Commons and served from 1919 to 1945.

A statue of Nancy Astor in Plymouth, unveiled in 2019 by then PM Theresa May. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A statue of Nancy Astor in Plymouth, unveiled in 2019 by then PM Theresa May. Pic: Reuters

The 80s saw a substantial increase in female MPs before a large jump in 1997, and there has been a big rise from 128 women MPs in 2005 to the current 264.

Despite this, no major party reached gender parity in its selection of candidates for last year’s election.

Labour selected 47% women, Greens were at 44%, Conservatives 34%, Lib Dems 28% and Reform 16%.

Female MPs in 2014 campaign to 'Bring Back Our Girls' in support of 200 schoolgirls abducted in Nigeria. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Female MPs in 2014 campaign to ‘Bring Back Our Girls’ in support of 200 schoolgirls abducted in Nigeria. Pic: Reuters

50:50 Parliament, which campaigns for gender equality in politics, is calling for people to “Ask Her to Stand” to encourage more women to get involved with politics to help balance the scales.

It has installed a “push for equality” panic button outside parliament to raise awareness of the gender disparity.

Stella Creasy, Labour MP for Walthamstow since 2010, has campaigned for abortion rights, childcare reform, and became the first MP to appoint a locum MP to manage constituency work during her maternity leave, after campaigning for better maternity rights for MPs.

She told Sky News gender parity in parliament is important, as a broad range of views and experiences is needed “to shape good quality policymaking”.

Read more:
Parliament to review baby rules after MP reprimanded

Labour MP Stella Creasy in the Commons with her baby
Image:
Labour MP Stella Creasy in the Commons with her baby

“For me, this is not about electing women for the sake of it, or because they champion women’s rights per se; it is because gender balance will lead to better outcomes for all and the furthering of all of our rights,” she said.

“There is strength in diversity, and we cannot hope to make decent policy, or pass good legislation, if half of the population are not adequately represented in the House.

“Childcare is a perfect example – it isn’t just good for mums, it is essential infrastructure for society and therefore the economy to get it right.”

‘Why would you think men are better at politics?’

Harriet Harman, a Labour peer and co-host of Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, is a former minister who put forward the Equality Bill, now the Equality Act 2010, which protects people from discrimination in the workplace and in wider society.

She told Sky News: “The time is long past that women could be expected to put up with men making all the decisions.

“Male-dominated parliaments are evidence of discrimination. Unless you think men are just better at politics than women. And why would you think that?

“A team of men and women with a breadth of experience is what works best. Who wants to go back to the old boys’ network running the country? Not me.”

(L to R) Ruth Davidson with her podcast co-hosts, Sky News political editor Beth Rigby and Baroness Harriet Harman. Pic: PA
Image:
(L to R) Ruth Davidson with her podcast co-hosts, Sky News political editor Beth Rigby and Baroness Harriet Harman. Pic: PA

‘Different voices make better decisions’

Former leader of the Scottish Conservatives Baroness Ruth Davidson, also a co-host of Electoral Dysfunction, said parliament “works better when it looks and feels closer to the country it seeks to represent”.

“Women politicians often have different experiences before entering parliament, including in their prior interactions with public services,” she added.

“It is important that laws and funding decided in the Commons and elsewhere are informed by the widest experience of how such decisions impact in practice.

“Having different voices round the table, offering challenge from a variety of perspectives, is how you make better laws, better decisions and a better Britain.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky News goes inside a Reform meeting in Scotland

Lyanne Nicholl, CEO of 50:50 Parliament, said the impact of their prediction playing out will be “devastating”, as she pointed out gender parity “isn’t about party politics – it’s about democracy”.

She said “we risk turning back the clock” and policymaking “ignoring half the population”, as she called the data a “wake-up call” for everyone.

Continue Reading

Trending