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The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.

Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.

The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.

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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.

So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.

:: Is Labour set to win the next election?

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Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.

But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.

But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.

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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’

:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?

Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.

Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.

So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.

But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.

Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.

Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.

Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.

:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?

Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.

The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.

:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?

Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.

The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.

The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.

This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.

Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.

Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.

Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.

Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.

This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.

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‘Nothing short of spectacular’

:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?

Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.

This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.

That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.

But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.

So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.

They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.

:: How likely is a snap general election?

Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.

That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.

What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.

But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.

So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”

Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.

Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club
Image:
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner

:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?

Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.

On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.

Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.

Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.

So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.

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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?

Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.

Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.

Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.

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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge

:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?

Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.

We may hear the result later in the summer.

Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.

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Four years after Sarah Everard’s murder, women still feel unsafe on Britain’s streets

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Four years after Sarah Everard's murder, women still feel unsafe on Britain's streets

In the middle of Liverpool city centre, musician Ami Alex is showing me a TikTok she posted while busking on the street.

But instead of showcasing her singing, it shows a man approaching her repeatedly, coming closer and closer. He reaches out and touches her – wiping something wet on her arm.

“At first I thought it was coffee,” she says. “But when I watched the video back – you can hear him saying ‘that’s my pee’. My jaw dropped. I was horrified.”

It’s hard to believe what she’s showing me, but she says this kind of behaviour is “unfortunately standard for a woman doing this kind of work”.

She has many more videos – of men touching her without her consent, or demanding hugs or kisses for the money they’ve given.

“I’ve gotten a lot better at dealing with it,” she says. “When I was 21, 22, when I first started doing this, I would go home in tears.

“It’s just so degrading. It makes you feel objectified. Like – is that all you think of me?”

Sarah Everard’s murder in 2021 caused outrage across the country. There was an outpouring of anger as women shared their stories of feeling unsafe, threatened and sexualised on the streets.

At the time there were promises – assurances to women that things would have to change. But four years on, many women here in Merseyside say they have the same feelings they did then.

“Men are honestly shocked when we tell them ‘we don’t feel safe’,” says Kate Chadwick, from the Wirral charity Tomorrow’s Women. “Pretty much every woman has had some kind of experience.”

Kate Chadwick
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Kate Chadwick

I meet her at a regular lunch club they host – at their building where men are not allowed inside. It’s intended as a safe space for their members, who they are helping through everything from domestic violence to sexual assault. There’s a medical clinic here, beauty treatment rooms, a computer lab – all staffed by women.

Kate shows me the pocket rape alarm they give out to the women who come here. She hopes they never have to use it, but “it makes them feel safer just having it”.

Women helped by the charity are given pocket rape alarms
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Women helped by the charity are given pocket rape alarms

“As a woman, in the winter it’s a hard time just to exist,” Kate says. “Women don’t feel safe coming out of their homes. Routines will change. They don’t want to walk in certain places.

“One of our members gets two buses home because it’s safer than waiting at a dark bus stop to just get the one.”

They are about to launch a photography exhibition around stalking and harassment. For this, they gave their members a camera and asked them to submit photos that show their experience being a woman.

There are several photos of dimly lit streets, bus stops with no one else there. One photo is a fist holding a key through the knuckles – an image most women will recognise.

Another picture is of an outfit laid out on the floor – a T-shirt, denim skirt and tights. It’s titled What Were They Wearing?

“This can often be the first question in a sexual assault case,” Kate says. “It really doesn’t matter what the woman was wearing.”

“It’s definitely not getting better,” she says. “In 2024, violence against women and girls was declared a national emergency. The statistics you read every day are shocking.”

Later that evening, back in Liverpool, we meet Girls on the Go – a running club started with the express purpose of allowing women to exercise safely in the winter. It’s 5.15pm when we meet for the run, and already dark.

The women running here list a collection of similar experiences. They have been catcalled, yelled at from cars, even chased while out running alone.

Girls on the Go helps women exercise safely in winter
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Girls on the Go helps women exercise safely in winter

Run leader Madeline Cole tells me that, as a women-only club, they have had to modify their warm-ups because “as soon as you bend over to touch your toes, or go into a squat, the shouting starts”.

Founder Steph Barney says she started the club because it is still “intimidating running alone as woman”.

“Far too many women experience harassment and catcalling – we wanted to create a group where women would feel safer doing it together” she says. “Even in the summer you get sexualised just for wearing shorts. You have to restrict what you do. None of my male friends have ever had to worry about that.”

I ask if anything would help them feel safer when out on their runs. “Better street lighting is a really obvious one,” she says. “And one of the issues is that it’s still not taken seriously by society. When you’re catcalled, it feels embarrassing to say ‘this is scary’.

“If it was taken more seriously – more women would speak out. And more could be done.”

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Sarah Everard
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Sarah Everard

The Angiolini Inquiry – which was established to investigate the circumstances surrounding Sarah Everard’s murder – is due to publish its latest report later today.

It is examining whether there a risk of it happening again, police culture, and broader concerns surrounding women’s safety in public spaces.

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Hillsborough: Long-awaited report into Britain’s worst-ever sporting disaster to be published today

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Hillsborough: Long-awaited report into Britain's worst-ever sporting disaster to be published today

The police watchdog will today publish its report into the actions of officers during and after the Hillsborough disaster in 1989.

The Independent Office for Police Misconduct (IOPC) has been investigating South Yorkshire Police since 2012.

It is the largest independent investigation into alleged police misconduct and criminality ever carried out in England and Wales.

Hillsborough remains to this day the worst disaster in British sporting history.

Fans, police, and emergency services on the pitch during the disaster. All pics: Action Images via Reuters
Image:
Fans, police, and emergency services on the pitch during the disaster. All pics: Action Images via Reuters

How did we get here?

A crush on the terraces during the FA Cup semi-final at the stadium in Sheffield resulted in the death of 97 Liverpool fans – men, women, and children aged from 10 to 67.

Even as fans lay dying, police were claiming that Liverpool supporters, arriving in large numbers late, drunk and without tickets, caused the disaster. But after decades of campaigning, that narrative was debunked.

In April 2016, new inquests – held after the original verdicts of accidental death were quashed in 2012 – determined that those who died had been unlawfully killed.

The IOPC told victims’ families in March that no officers would face misconduct proceedings because legislation in place at the time did not require police to have a duty of candour.

Dozens of allegations of misconduct against officers had been upheld, it said, but none would face disciplinary proceedings because they had all left the police service.

The 97 victims of the Hillsborough disaster
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The 97 victims of the Hillsborough disaster

What has this probe looked at?

The IOPC investigation focused on amendments made in accounts of officers who were present at Hillsborough and allegations that misleading information was passed by the police to the media, MPs, parliament, and the inquiries set up immediately after the disaster.

It has also been looking into the role of West Midlands Police, which led the investigation into the disaster, and allegations that family members and campaigners were subject to surveillance by the police.

The IOPC has already confirmed that its investigation “aligned” with the findings of the Hillsborough Independent Panel investigation and the 2016 inquests.

It said: “We found no evidence to support police accounts to the media, the Taylor Inquiry and both sets of inquests, which suggested that the behaviour of supporters caused or in any way contributed to the disaster.”

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In September, the government introduced the so-called Hillsborough Law to the House of Commons.

The legislation will include a duty of candour, forcing public officials to act with honesty and integrity at all times or face criminal sanctions.

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China poses ‘real national security threats’ to UK, Starmer warns

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PM issues China warning - and hits out at Brexit

Sir Keir Starmer has warned China poses “real national security threats to the United Kingdom”.

But the prime minister also described China as a “nation of immense scale, ambition and ingenuity” and a “defining force in technology, trade and global governance”.

“The UK needs a China policy that recognises this reality,” he added in a speech at the Guildhall in London.

“Instead, for years we have blown hot and cold.

“So our response will not be driven by fear, nor softened by illusion. It will be grounded in strength, clarity and sober realism.”

Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving his speech. Pic: Reuters
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Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving his speech. Pic: Reuters

Describing the absence of engagement with China – the world’s second-biggest economy – as “staggering” and “a dereliction of duty”, Sir Keir said: “This is not a question of balancing economic and security considerations. We don’t trade off security in one area, for a bit more economic access somewhere else.

“Protecting our security is non-negotiable – our first duty. But by taking tough steps to keep us secure, we enable ourselves to cooperate in other areas.”

Sir Keir’s remarks come after MPs and parliamentarians were warned last month of new attempts to spy on them by China.

And they follow the collapse of a prosecution of two people suspected of spying on behalf of China.

That case led to controversy over how the government under Labour responded to the Crown Prosecution Service’s requests for evidence.

Speech at the annual Lady Mayor's Banquet. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Speech at the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet. Pic: Reuters

At the time, Sir Keir sought to blame the previous Conservative government for the issues, which centred on whether China could be designated an “enemy” under First World War-era legislation.

Meanwhile, Sky News understands the prime minister is set to approve plans for a controversial Chinese “super embassy” in central London.

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A final decision on the planning application for the former Royal Mint site near the Tower of London is due on 10 December, after numerous previous delays.

Sir Keir is also understood to be preparing for a likely visit to China in the new year.

Since he was elected last year, Sir Keir has been active on the world stage, trumpeting deals with the US, India and the EU and leading the “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine.

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PM preparing for likely China visit

But he has also faced criticism from his opponents, who accuse him of spending too much time out of the UK attending international summits rather than focusing on domestic issues.

Sir Keir offered a defence of his approach, describing it as “the biggest shift in British foreign policy since Brexit” and “a decisive move to face outward again”.

While saying he would “always respect” the Brexit vote as a “fair, democratic expression”, he said the way the UK’s departure from the EU had been “sold and delivered” was “simply wrong”.

He said: “Wild promises were made to the British people and not fulfilled. We are still dealing with the consequences today.”

In his speech on Monday, the prime minister accused opposition politicians of offering a “corrosive, inward-looking attitude” on international affairs.

Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters

Taking aim at those who advocate leaving the European Convention on Human Rights or NATO, he said they offered “grievance rather than hope” and “a declinist vision of a lesser Britain”.

Sir Keir said: “Moreover, it is a fatal misreading of the moment, ducking the fundamental challenge posed by a chaotic world – a world which is more dangerous and unstable than at any point for a generation, where international events reach directly into our lives, whether we like it or not.”

He added: “In these times, we deliver for Britain by looking outward with renewed purpose and pride, not by shrinking back. In these times, internationalism is patriotism.”

Responding to the prime minister’s speech, shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel said: “From China’s continued flouting of economic rules to transnational repression of Hong Kongers in Britain, Starmer’s ‘reset’ with Beijing is a naive one-way street, which puts Britain at risk while Beijing gets everything it wants.

“Starmer continues to kowtow to China and is captivated by half-baked promises of trade.

“Coming just days after the latest Chinese plot to interfere in our democracy was exposed, his love letter to the Chinese Communist Party is a desperate ploy to generate economic growth following his budget of lies and is completely ill-judged.

“While China poses a clear threat to Britain, China continues to back Iran and Russia, and plots to undermine our institutions. Keir Starmer has become Beijing’s useful idiot in Britain.”

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