By-election results: Your questions answered after Tories lose two seats but cling onto a third
The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.
Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.
The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.
Politics latest: Minister a ‘twit’ for Inbetweeners remark about new MP, says Labour frontbencher
Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.
So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.
:: Is Labour set to win the next election?
Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.
But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.
But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’
:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?
Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.
Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.
So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.
But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.
Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.
Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.
Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.
:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?
Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.
The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.
:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?
Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.
The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.
The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.
This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.
Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.
Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.
Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.
Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.
This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Nothing short of spectacular’
:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?
Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.
This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.
That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.
But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.
So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.
They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.
:: How likely is a snap general election?
Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.
That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.
What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.
But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.
So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”
Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner
:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?
Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.
On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.
Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.
Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.
So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.
Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts
:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?
Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.
Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.
Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge
:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?
Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.
We may hear the result later in the summer.
Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.
UK
Sharaz Ali found guilty of murdering ex-partner’s sister and her three children in Bradford house fire
A man has been found guilty of murdering his ex-partner’s sister and her three children in a house fire.
Prosecutors said Sharaz Ali, 40, was “motivated by jealousy and fuelled by drink and drugs” when he set fire to Bryonie Gawith’s home early on 21 August last year.
Jurors heard that Ali went to the home in Westbury Road, Bradford, aiming to “take revenge” on his ex, Antonia Gawith, who was staying there after ending their “abusive” seven-year relationship earlier that month.
Antonia Gawith managed to escape, but Bryonie Gawith, 29, and her children Denisty Birtle, nine, Oscar Birtle, five, and 22-month-old Aubree Birtle died in the blaze.
Bryonie Gawith and her children Denisty, Oscar and Aubree Birtle died in the fire
Ali told a jury he had no intention of harming others when the house went up in flames, saying: “I didn’t want to hurt anyone but myself.”
But after a trial at Doncaster Crown Court, he was found guilty of four counts of murder and attempting to murder Antonia Gawith.
Calum Sunderland, 26, who went with Ali to the house and kicked the door in for him, was found guilty of the manslaughter of Bryonie Gawith and her three children, but cleared of the more serious charges of murder.
He was also cleared of attempted murder, and an alternative count of attempting to cause grievous bodily harm, in relation to Antonia Gawith.
Calum Sunderland. Pic: West Yorkshire Police
Mohammed Shabir, 45, who had also been due to go on trial, died of a heart attack in October after collapsing in prison.
After the verdicts, the judge, Mr Justice Hilliard, thanked jurors and said the case had been “distressing beyond measure – three children and their mother murdered”.
“I don’t think anyone who heard Antonia’s desperate cries for help will ever forget them,” he said.
“These are truly dreadful crimes.”
The judge also praised the “extraordinary bravery” of those who tried to save the children trapped in the house.
Ali and Sunderland, a convicted arsonist, were driven to the house by Shabir, stopping on the way to fill a seven-litre canister with petrol, the court heard.
Doorbell footage captured Ali telling Sunderland, who was carrying the petrol and a lighter, to “kick the door in”, which he did before running back to the car.
Antonia Gawith said she saw an “angry” Ali run into the house and begin pouring petrol on her while shouting before setting himself and the house on fire.
Antonia Gawith outside Doncaster Crown Court. Pic: PA
‘I couldn’t save them’
In a video interview played to jurors, she sobbed as she told police how she “couldn’t save” her sister, nieces and nephew, as she tried frantically to get back in the house through the back door.
“I was just screaming, trying to get back in the house and I couldn’t get in. I couldn’t save them,” she said.
Read more from Sky News:
‘Depraved predator’ jailed for rapes and sexual assaults
British soldier who died in Ukraine named
West Yorkshire Police’s Detective Chief Inspector Stacey Atkinson said: “Bryonie and her three children would still be alive today if it wasn’t for the horrific and truly callous actions of Ali and Sunderland that day.
“They left a mum and her three children completely helpless whilst her sister and their auntie watched on in horror.
“Our thoughts and sympathies are with the family, who despite their immense strength of character now face the rest of their lives without them.”
Senior Crown Prosecution Service prosecutor Amanda McInnes said Ali was a “selfish killer who had no regard for anyone but himself”.
“He was motivated by jealousy and his actions have now needlessly robbed a family of their loved ones,” she said.
“Both men played their role and caused the deaths of a young family who should still be with us today.”
UK
‘I didn’t know where to turn’: Why ethnic minorities with gambling addictions struggle to get help
On a dark December morning two years ago, Kiki Marriott left her flat and started walking.
Content warning: This article contains references to suicide.
It was 5am, and she was heading for the station.
“I was numb at that point,” she says.
“I was just so done with trying to survive and just existing… feeling extremely lonely and isolated and didn’t know where to turn.”
She was trapped in a cycle of addiction, gambling all hours and taking cocaine for the maximum buzz.
‘I didn’t know where to turn,’ says Kiki
“I sat at the train station thinking about my daughter, thinking about the mistakes that I’ve made in the past, thinking that I didn’t want to live this life any more.”
Kiki was waiting for the first train.
But that train was late. And she changed her mind.
Instead of taking her own life, she decided to seek help.
Yet what she would find on that journey of recovery would shock her.
“I just realised that there wasn’t anybody that looked like me, sounded like me, and it got me to thinking, well I can’t be the only black woman suffering with a gambling or cocaine addiction.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘I can’t be the only black woman suffering addiction’
Racial disparities
Research has shown that people from ethnic minority backgrounds are less likely to gamble than white people, but are more likely to suffer harm from gambling.
Despite that, too often they do not seek help.
And YouGov statistics shared exclusively with Sky News shed a light on why.
The survey of 4,000 adults for GamCare, which runs the National Gambling Helpline, found that two-thirds of people from ethnic minority backgrounds who’d gambled in the past year had spent more money than they’d planned, double the amount of white respondents.
They were also more than twice as likely to hide their gambling and nearly three times as likely to feel guilt.
Kiki is not surprised.
“For me, coming from a black community, a black background, what goes on indoors stays behind closed doors,” she says.
“You keep your mouth shut, and you handle your business yourself.”
And when she considered what an addict looked like, it wasn’t someone like her.
“I just thought it’s an old white man’s thing – that they go into the bookies, and they have a drink and they bet.
“I thought, well, that’s not me.”
But Dharmi Kapadia, a senior sociology lecturer from Manchester University, who focuses on racial inequality, thinks there’s more than just cultural pressure at play.
“These explanations of stigma have become dominant,” she says.
“We’ve found that what’s more important is that people don’t want to go and get help from gambling services because of previous racist treatment that they’ve suffered at the hands of other statutory services, for example, when they went to the GP.”
Dharmi Kapadia thinks there’s more than just cultural pressure at play
‘I needed to change’
The stigma felt very real for Kiki, so she hid what she was doing.
“I’ve had trauma in my life. I’ve been sexually abused as a child.
“As the years have gone on, a traumatic event happened in my family that really changed the dynamics of my life and that’s when I moved on from scratch cards to online slots.”
She became hooked – betting around the clock, spending her benefits on 10p and 20p spins on online slots and borrowing money from those around her.
Eventually her daughter moved out when she was 15.
“That’s when everything escalated. I didn’t have that responsibility of keeping up appearances.
“Before that, gas, electric, food shopping, all those things had to be in place.
“I just lived and breathed in my bedroom at that point and yeah, it was very lonely.”
When Kiki left the station that day, she called the National Gambling Helpline.
“For the first time in my life, I was completely honest about everything that I was doing – the lies, the manipulation when I was in active addiction, the secrecy.
“I was completely transparent because I wanted to change. I needed to change.”
‘Where’s all the women?’
Since then, she has undergone constant therapy, including a six-week stint in rehab.
And as she headed home in the taxi, her phone rang.
It was Lisa Walker, a woman who understood gambling addiction. She had won £127,000 playing poker at 29 before losing everything and ending up homeless with her young children.
Lisa Walker (left) sought help from Gamblers Anonymous and was among very few women at her meetings
When she finally asked for help, she too felt she was different, walking into a Gamblers Anonymous meeting to find she was one of only two women in a room with 35 men.
“I was thinking, where’s all the women?” says Lisa.
“I can’t be the only woman in the world with a gambling addiction, so that got me thinking, what services are out there for women?”
It was the catalyst to set up support for female gamblers in April 2022.
Since then, Lisa has helped close to 250 women, but all but four have been white.
One of those four was Kiki.
‘There’s no getting away from it’
“It just baffles me… Why aren’t they reaching out for support? Is it the shame? Is it stigma?” says Lisa.
But another concern is that it’s simply too easy to hide the gambling.
“Getting on the train this morning, 90% of people are on their phones, and we don’t know whether they’re playing slots,” she says.
“I could probably sit here now and sign up for 50 online casinos and probably get over a thousand free spins.
“I just think there’s no getting away from it because it’s 24 hours a day.”
Kiki says she now has an ‘amazing’ relationship with her daughter
Kiki’s flat in Woolwich, where once she couldn’t even go to the bathroom without gambling, has become the place where she runs her own online peer mentoring groups.
“Feeling understood and validated for your experiences, for how you was raised… the core beliefs that you’re taught from a young age, to have somebody that looks like you, talks like you, has the same cultural background… it’s extremely important to make you feel understood, to make you feel validated,” she says.
‘You can learn from it’
Kiki will need to attend support groups for life to keep her addictions at bay.
But she has a clear goal, just as Lisa did.
“My focus is to help other people, help empower other people to choose themselves, to show them that there is light after so much darkness… that you don’t have to be a victim of your circumstances, that you can choose to grow from it and learn from it and heal from it,” she says.
For Kiki, there was so much at stake.
“It was either I was going to die or I was going to become a woman and a mother that my daughter could come back to and respect again.”
And that has happened. Kiki’s daughter is 19 now.
Kiki now helps others suffering from gambling addiction
“We’ve got an amazing relationship today. I’ve took full accountability for the mistakes that I’ve made.
“She’s extremely proud of where I am today.”
It’s more than Kiki could have dreamt of two years ago.
Now all she wants is to help others escape the endless cycle of addiction.
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK
To speak to an adviser on the National Gambling Helpline, call 0808 8020 133
Sir Keir Starmer has declared it his “moral mission” to “turn the tide on the lost decade of young kids left as collateral damage”.
The government launches its 10-year youth plan today, which has pledged £500m to reviving youth services.
Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy has also warned that young people are now “the most isolated in generations” and face challenges that are “urgent and demand a major change in direction”.
But despite the strong language, the Conservatives have warned that “under Labour, the outlook for the next generation is increasingly bleak”.
Lisa Nandy is on Sky News from 7am – follow live
Launching the 10-year strategy, Sir Keir said: “As a dad and as prime minister, I believe it is our generation’s greatest responsibility to turn the tide on the lost decade of young kids left as collateral damage. It is our moral mission.
“Today, my government sets out a clear, ambitious and deliverable plan – investing in the next generation so that every child has the chance to see their talents take them as far as their ability can.”
What’s in the government’s strategy?
Under the plans, the government will seek to give 500,000 more young people across England access to a trusted adult outside their homes – who are assigned through a formal programme – and online resources about staying safe.
The prime minister said the plans will also “ensure” that those who choose to do apprenticeships rather than go to university “will have the same respect and opportunity as everyone else”.
The plan comes following a so-called “state of the nation” survey commissioned by Ms Nandy, which heard from more than 14,000 young people across England.
Launching the strategy, she said: “Young people have been crystal clear in speaking up in our consultation: they need support for their mental health, spaces to meet with people in their communities and real opportunities to thrive. We will give them what they want.”
Read more:
Child poverty strategy launched
Young people may lose benefits
Lisa Nandy will speak about the plan on Sky News on Wednesday morning. Pic: PA
But the Conservatives have criticised the government for scrapping the National Citizen Service (NCS), which ended in March this year.
Shadow culture secretary Nigel Huddlestone said “any renewed investment in youth services is of course welcome”, but said Labour’s “economic mismanagement and tax hikes are forcing businesses to close, shrinking opportunities while inflation continues to climb”.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment3 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024