New REBNY report shows strong Manhattan office occupancy numbers

Published

2 years ago

July 25, 2023

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In the summer of 2022, the 1.7 million square-foot office tower at 787 Seventh Avenue was less than 20% occupied by employees of such tenants as BNP Paribas, Sidley Austin and Willkie Farr.

Aldo Sohm Wine Bar, a sister restaurant to three-Michelin-star Le Bernardin, struggled to draw a lunch crowd. But now, 787 Seventh is mostly full except on Fridays, according to CBRE power-broker Howard Fiddle, the buildings leasing agent.

They brought their people back midweek, Fiddle said. And Monday is picking up too.

Le Bernardin chef-owner Eric Ripert, whose restaurant is on the ground floor of 787, confirmed the welcome trend, which he termed great news for the wine bar in the building arcade.

The 787 Seventh office influx illustrates broad findings of the Real Estate Board of New Yorks new Manhattan Office Building Visitation Report, to be released Monday.

The data present a more optimistic and nuanced picture than what Durst Organization principal David Neil called certain gloomy headlines about the slow-but-steady office-return trend as more companies, especially in finance and law, bring their staff in at least three days a week — and others plan to make it four.

The REBNY study corrects the common misconception that current occupancy rates cited in surveys (including REBNY’s own and the oft-cited Kastle Systems Back to Work Barometer) are based on what many people believe were full offices before COVID hit.

However, REBNY points out, It would be inaccurate to define full recovery of the office market as returning to 100% occupancy — which it calls a goal line that never existed. In fact, pre-pandemic offices were only occupied by employees at 80% of their total capacity for around four days a week.

Attendance plummeted to under 10% of pre-COVID levels during the pandemic and has since rebounded — although not to 2019 levels. But how strong the recovery has been is open to interpretation.

REBNY used proprietary data from Placer.ai to measure a sample of 50 key Manhattan office buildings (Placer.ais algorithm identifies employees mobile-device visits). It found that employee office visits Tuesday through Thursday in the first five months of 2023 averaged 68% of 2019 levels — much higher than Kastles roughly 50% Manhattan estimate.

The numbers dropped on Mondays to 56% of what they were in 2019 and 37% on Fridays, according to REBNY.

A different REBNY metric called same-day comparison, which compares certain specific days such as the first Friday of April 2023 to the first Friday of April 2019, cited an even higher percentage of pre-pandemic attendance — 73%.

REBNYs director of market data Keith DeCoster, who wrote the report, said it makes even clearer that employee visitation rates continue to rebound strongly during mid-week days, while total office building visitation rates are also growing throughout the week, even amid hybrid work policies.

The total visitation data include visits to office building components such as stores, restaurants, galleries and medical facilities. The survey included them because office buildings have a bigger impact on the economy than offices alone, DeCoster said.

Fiddle strongly endorsed the REBNY findings.

I believe the return-to-office numbers are empirically up,” he said. “Nobody says theyre seeing fewer people in the office.

He noted that Midtowns Class-A properties are in a stronger position than in Midtown South or Downtown because financial and law firms want their people back.”

“Walk up or down Park Avenue and everythings full, Fiddle said.

Not so in other parts of Manhattan with tech and creative industries, which can more easily adapt to remote work.

US

Zohran Mamdani: ‘Trump’s worst nightmare’ could be about to show how to take the fight to the president

Published

5 mins ago

November 4, 2025

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Zohran Mamdani: 'Trump's worst nightmare' could be about to show how to take the fight to the president

Zohran Mamdani calls himself “Donald Trump’s worst nightmare”. They are the words of a man living the dream.

It’s because the 34-year-old is the headline act in Tuesday’s referendum on Trump 2.0. A statement night in US politics, as Americans – some, at least – deliver a verdict on what they’ve seen so far.

Of four electoral contests across the US – including in California, New Jersey and Virginia – the race to be New York mayor is the most compulsive and consequential.

The polls have Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, as the frontrunner. If he wins, it would signify big change in the Big Apple.

Read more: Who is Zohran Mamdani?

Born in Uganda to Indian parents (he moved to the US aged seven), Mamdani would become New York’s first Muslim mayor.

He is a democratic socialist whose supporters will see victory as laying down a template for taking on Trump, even if the party’s old guard is sceptical.

An effective campaign has focused on the costs and quality of life in New York, promising universal childcare, a rent freeze, free bus travel and grocery shops run by the city.

So why is he controversial?

The message has resonated with New Yorkers squeezed on affordability, but his payment plan is open to question.

Mamdani plans to raise $9bn by raising taxes on the wealthy and on corporations, but he would face a struggle to gain the necessary consent of the New York State legislature and governor.

Mamdani’s politics are pegged to the “progressive” left wing of his party, and his campaign success plays into the Democrats’ quandary around a longer-term comeback strategy.

The politics that succeed in New York don’t necessarily resonate nationwide, and a party establishment has been reluctant to embrace Mamdani.

Democrat Chuck Schumer, Senate minority leader, has declined to endorse him at all.

Party management aside, he won’t have been impressed when Mamdani was arrested outside Schumer’s Brooklyn home as part of a 2023 protest calling for a ceasefire following Hamas’ October 7th attack on Israel.

Mamdani has been a staunch critic of Israel and, in the past, has advocated defunding the police, decriminalising prostitution and closing New York City jails.

His background and Islamic faith are threaded through opposition attacks. He has been criticised for refusing to denounce the phrase “globalise the intifada”, used by pro-Palestinian activists.

Subsequently, he said he would “discourage” the term and would combat antisemitism through actions as well as words.

It hasn’t stopped his Republican rival, Curtis Sliwa, claiming Mamdani supported “global jihad”.

Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, has labelled him “the most divisive candidate I have ever experienced in New York”.

Trump gives Cuomo an endorsement – of sorts

Cuomo, the former New York governor who resigned over sexual harassment allegations, is Mamdani’s closest contender who has received support – of sorts – from Trump.

The president, who falsely labels Mamdani a communist, said on Truth Social on the eve of the election: “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice.

“You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”

At a rally the same night, Mamdani fired back to say: “The MAGA movement’s embrace of Andrew Cuomo is reflective of Donald Trump’s understanding that this would be the best mayor for him.

“Not the best mayor for New York City, not the best mayor for New Yorkers, but the best mayor for Donald Trump and his administration.”

The Republican spin on the prospect of a Mamdani victory is that it would reflect a move towards radical extremism by the Democratic Party.

Trump has even suggested he may withhold federal funds from New York if Mamdani wins.

In time, Democrats would need to interpret and apply the lessons of a Mamdani victory. But more than anything else, they need a win to feel a pulse in a party undergoing an identity crisis.

One battle after another

The same applies to Tuesday contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, fascinating in terms of the vote winners and vote breakdown.

What will be the verdict, nine months in, of people who turned to Trump at the last election? Will he hold onto the Latino vote, given his immigration policy, ICE raids, and other orders?

In California, Tuesday sees a redistricting vote to counter Republican gerrymandering elsewhere. If backed by the public, the plan will increase the number of winnable Democratic seats in the House of Representatives.

It is the initiative of California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom.

If he wins the day, his party will be enhanced and so will he, as the potential party nominee for president come the election in 2028.

US

Is this the week everything changes for the Democrats?

Published

5 mins ago

November 4, 2025

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Is this the week everything changes for the Democrats?

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Donald Trump sits down for an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes – the programme he sued successfully for $16m just four months ago.

All the while, his poll numbers are at an all-time low due to the government shutdown, as hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain unpaid and food benefits for millions of people run out.

And is this the week the real Democrats stand up? Their favourability numbers are also dire, but will the emergence of a firebrand left-wing mayor in New York City, in the shape of Zohran Mamdani, and a handful of positive off-year election results on Tuesday be the spark they desperately need to counter Trump’s MAGA agenda?

You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel.

Email us on trump100@sky.uk with your comments and questions.

Technology

HSBC, General Atlantic CEOs flag AI capex-revenue mismatch, ‘irrational exuberance’

Published

15 mins ago

November 4, 2025

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HSBC, General Atlantic CEOs flag AI capex-revenue mismatch, 'irrational exuberance'

HONG KONG, CHINA – 2025/03/01: In this photo illustration, Artificial intelligence (AI) apps of perplexity, DeepSeek and ChatGPT are seen on a smartphone screen.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

As companies pour billions into artificial intelligence, HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery on Tuesday warned of a mismatch between investments and revenues.

Speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Elhedery said the scale of investment poses a conundrum for companies: while the computing power for AI is essential, current revenue profiles may not justify such massive spending.

Morgan Stanley in July estimated that over the next five years, global data center capacity would grow six times, with data centers and their hardware alone costing $3 trillion by the end of 2028.

McKinsey said in a report in April that by 2030, data centers equipped to handle AI processing loads would require $5.2 trillion in capital expenditure to keep up with compute demand, while the capex for those powering traditional IT applications is forecast at $1.5 trillion.

Elhedery said that consumers were not ready to pay for it, and businesses will be cautious as productivity benefits will not materialize in a year or two.

“These are like five year trends, and therefore the ramp up means that we will start seeing real revenue benefits and real readiness to pay for it, probably later than than the expectations of investors,” he said.

William Ford, chairman and CEO of General Atlantic, speaking at the same panel, agreed: “In the long term, you’re going to create a whole new set of industries and applications, and there will be a productivity payoff, but that’s a 10-, 20-year play.”

Big Tech firms Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon have all lifted their guidance for capital expenditures and now collectively expect that number to reach more than $380 billion this year.

OpenAI, which set off the AI frenzy with the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, has announced roughly $1 trillion worth of infrastructure deals with partners including Nvidia, Oracle and Broadcom.

Ford said that the huge expenditure that is going into the sector shows that people recognize the long-term impact of AI. This sector, however, will be capital-intensive initially, he said adding that “you need to, sort of, pay up front for the opportunity that’s going to come down the road.”

Ford warned there could be “misallocation of capital, destruction, overvaluation… [and] irrational exuberance” in the initial stages, and also added that it can be difficult to pick winners and losers at the moment.

“You’re really betting on this being a broad based technology, more like railroads or electricity, that had profound impacts over over time, and reshaped the economy, but were very hard to predict exactly how in the first few years.”