Last year’s multi record-breaking hot and dry weather will become “typical” in the UK in under 40 years, the Met Office has warned.
The remarkable weather of last year – when almost every month was hotter than average, wildfires torched homes and more people died in the summer – was considered extreme.
But by 2060 – potentially in the lifetime of anyone now under around 40 – that persistent hot weather will become simply average, the Met Office has said in its annual State of the UK Climate report.
And by the end of the century – when many young children today will still be alive – such heat will be regarded as cool weather.
That is assuming the world warms by around 2.4C, as is expected based on current energy policies.
Not only was 2022 the first year in the UK when heat first soared to 40C (104F), shattering the previous record by a significant 1.6C, it was also the warmest year on record. Both were made more likely by climate change.
These things “emphasise” that our climate is “changing now and it’s changing fast”, lead author Mike Kendon said.
Image: 1911’s heat record stood for 80 years but was broken on four occasions in recent times
In its annual review of the previous year’s weather, published on Thursday, the Met Office found:
• 2022 was the warmest year in records dating back to 1884
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• 40C heat was hit for the first time ever
• Every month other than December was warmer than the average for the past two decades
• The period from January to August was the driest across England and Wales since 1976
• 2022 was one of the least snowy years on record when compared with the past 60 years
• Almost every species regarded as indicative of spring appeared between one and 10 days early
• Temperatures in Durham and Bradford exceeded their previous records by a striking 4C
Why 2022 is a ‘milestone in climate history’
While we “shouldn’t be surprised” by the findings, which echo previous reports, last year still marked a “milestone of climate history”, Mr Kendon said.
That is partly because temperatures topped 40C for the first time.
But also because the summer in particular gave “a sign of things to come in future years”, said Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, which published the document.
Most recent summers have been quite wet, but last year brought the first hot, dry summer for a while. These are the type we expect to become more common with climate change, she said.
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Greek wildfires seen from space
Can the UK cope with more heat?
Last year saw a slew of new health warnings – the Met Office issued its first red warning for extreme heat. The UK Health Security Agency issued a level four – the limit – and the government triggered a national heat emergency in England.
But the government’s newly published plan to deal with heat and other climate impacts was recently criticised as “deeply disappointing”.
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Dr Ellie Murtagh, UK Climate Adaptation Lead at the British Red Cross, also said there was a “perception gap in the UK, with people not realising the danger extreme weather can pose”.
We must “ensure people most vulnerable to heat risk are able to access the targeted information, advice and support they need to take action and stay safe and healthy”.
By 2060, even in a scenario where carbon emissions start to level off, 2022 will be viewed as an average year, and by the end of the century might even be considered cool.
Although these are only predictions, they are striking, and worrying.
Because according to academics and campaigners, the UK simply is not ready for what is to come.
A glance at what happened last year gives you an idea of the scale of the difficulty.
Wildfires fuelled by dry vegetation destroyed nearly 20 properties on the edge of London. More over 65s died during the heat.
Train tracks buckled. Productivity dipped.
The government recognises the problem and has recently released an updated national adaptation programme.
But critics say the strategy still lacks ambition, scale and pace.
The independent Climate Change Committee has previously warned that there is “very limited evidence of the implementation of adaptation at the scale needed to fully prepare for climate risks facing the UK across cities, communities, infrastructure, economy and ecosystems”.
There are those who argue that generally rising temperatures may well benefit the UK – fewer deaths from the cold, for example, or the potential to grow new crops.
But extreme heat is dangerous and disruptive, and one of the big problems for the UK is that unlike our neighbours in southern Europe, it is a relatively new challenge.
Dr Candice Howarth from the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, puts it like this:
“The UK needs to establish a more sensible ‘culture of heat’, learning from experiences of dealing with extreme heat across Europe and the globe, with effective communication, education and engagement on extreme heat and how people can prepare and respond.
“If the government fails to show more leadership on preparing for these extreme heat events, then we are likely to see a rise in heat-related deaths, wider impacts on workers’ health and productivity, and increasing rates of overheating in UK homes and buildings that are ill-equipped to stay cool in the summer.”
Creating a “culture of heat” in a place traditionally famous for its rain and mild temperatures will be a huge challenge, but it is one that must be met if we are to be prepared for the future scientists say is coming.
Watch The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3pm and 7.30pm on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, and on YouTube and Twitter.
The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.
Sir Keir Starmer’s controversial welfare bill has passed its first hurdle in the Commons despite a sizeable rebellion from his MPs.
The prime minister’s watered-down Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill, aimed at saving £5.5bn, was backed by a majority of 75 on Tuesday evening.
A total of 49 Labour MPs voted against the bill – the largest rebellion since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair’s Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.
After multiple concessions made due to threats of a Labour rebellion, many MPs questioned what they were voting for as the bill had been severely stripped down.
They ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the bill voted through “is not expected to deliver any savings over the next four years” because the savings from reducing the Universal Credit health element for new claimants will be roughly offset by the cost of increasing the UC standard allowance.
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Just 90 minutes before voting started on Tuesday evening, disabilities minister Stephen Timms announced the last of a series of concessions made as dozens of Labour MPs spoke of their fears for disabled and sick people if the bill was made law.
In a major U-turn, he said changes in eligibility for the personal independence payment (PIP), the main disability payment to help pay for extra costs incurred, would not take place until a review he is carrying out into the benefit is published in autumn 2026.
An amendment brought by Labour MP Rachael Maskell, which aimed to prevent the bill progressing to the next stage, was defeated but 44 Labour MPs voted for it.
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4:31
Welfare bill blows ‘black hole’ in chancellor’s accounts
A Number 10 source told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby: “Change isn’t easy, we’ve always known that, we’re determined to deliver on the mandate the country gave us, to make Britain work for hardworking people.
“We accept the will of the house, and want to take colleagues with us, our destination – a social security system that supports the most vulnerable, and enables people to thrive – remains.”
But the Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride called the vote “farcical” and said the government “ended up in this terrible situation” because they “rushed it”.
He warned the markets “will have noticed that when it comes to taking tougher decisions about controlling and spending, this government has been found wanting”.
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‘Absolutely lessons to learn’ after welfare vote
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said: “I wish we’d got to this point in a different way. And there are absolutely lessons to learn.
“But I think it’s really important we pass this bill at the second reading, it put some really important reforms to the welfare system – tackling work disincentives, making sure that people with severe conditions would no longer be assessed and alongside our investment in employment support this will help people get back to work, because that’s the brighter future for them.”
She made further concessions on Monday in the hope the rebels’ fears would be allayed, but many were concerned the PIP eligibility was going to be changed at the same time the review was published, meaning its findings would not be taken into account.
Her changes were:
• Current PIP claimants, and any up to November 2026, would have the same eligibility criteria as they do now, instead of the stricter measure proposed
• A consultation into PIP to be “co-produced” with disabled people and published in autumn 2026
• For existing and future Universal Credit (UC) claimants, the combined value of the standard UC allowance and the health top-up will rise “at least in line with inflation” every year for the rest of this parliament
• The UC health top-up, for people with limited ability to work due to a disability or long-term sickness, will get a £300m boost next year – doubling the current amount – then rising to £800m the year after and £1bn in 2028/29.
Labour’s welfare reforms bill has passed, with 335 MPs voting in favour and 260 against.
It came after the government watered down the bill earlier this evening, making a dramatic last-minute concession to the demands of would-be rebel MPs who were concerned about the damage the policy would do to disabled people.
The government has a working majority of 166, so it would have taken 84 rebels to defeat the bill.
In total, 49 Labour MPs still voted against the bill despite the concessions. No MPs from other parties voted alongside the government, although three MPs elected for Labour who have since had the whip removed did so.
Which Labour MPs rebelled?
Last week, 127 Labour MPs signed what they called a “reasoned amendment”, a letter stating their objection to the bill as it was.
The government responded with some concessions to try and win back the rebels, which was enough to convince some of them. But they were still ultimately forced to make more changes today.
In total, 68 MPs who signed the initial “reasoned amendment” eventually voted in favour of the bill.
Nine in 10 MPs elected for the first time at the 2024 general election voted with the government.
That compares with fewer than three quarters of MPs who were voted in before that.
A total of 42 Labour MPs also voted in favour of an amendment that would have stopped the bill from even going to a vote at all. That was voted down by 328 votes to 149.
How does the rebellion compare historically?
If the wording of the bill had remained unchanged and 127 MPs or more had voted against it on Tuesday, it would have been up there as one of the biggest rebellions in British parliamentary history.
As it happened, it was still higher than the largest recorded during Tony Blair’s first year as PM, when 47 of his Labour colleagues (including Diane Abbott, John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn, who also voted against the bill on Tuesday) voted no to his plan to cut benefits for single-parent families.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
A 92-year-old man has been sentenced to life with a minimum term of 20 years in prison for the rape and murder of an elderly widow nearly 60 years ago.
Ryland Headley was found guilty on Monday of killing 75-year-old Louisa Dunne at her Bristol home in June 1967, in what is thought to be the UK’s longest cold case to reach trial, and has been told by the judge he “will die in prison”.
The mother-of-two’s body was found by neighbours after Headley, then a 34-year-old railway worker, forced his way inside the terraced house in the Easton area before attacking her.
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3:09
The UK’s longest cold case to reach trial
Police found traces of semen and a palm print on one of the rear windows inside the house – but it was about 20 years before DNA testing.
The case remained unsolved for more than 50 years until Avon and Somerset detectives sent off items from the original investigation and found a DNA match to Headley.
He had moved to Suffolk after the murder and served a prison sentence for raping two elderly women in 1977.
Prosecutors said the convictions showed he had a “tendency” to break into people’s homes at night and, in some cases, “target an elderly woman living alone, to have sex with her despite her attempts to fend him off, and to threaten violence”.
Image: Louisa Dunne in 1933. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Image: Headley during his arrest. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Headley, from Ipswich, who did not give evidence, denied raping and murdering Ms Dunne, but was found guilty of both charges after a trial at Bristol Crown Court.
Detectives said forces across the country are investigating whether Headley could be linked to other unsolved crimes.
Mrs Dunne’s granddaughter, Mary Dainton, who was 20 when her relative was killed, told the court that her murder “had a big impact on my mother, my aunt and her family.
“I don’t think my mother ever recovered from it. The anxiety caused by her mother’s brutal rape and murder clouded the rest of her life.
“The fact the offender wasn’t caught caused my mother to become and remain very ill.
“When people found out about the murder, they withdrew from us. In my experience, there is a stigma attached to rape and murder.”
Image: The front of Louisa Dunne’s home. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Image: Louisa Dunne’s skirt. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Finding out her grandmother’s killer had been caught after almost six decades “turned my life upside down,” she said.
“I feel sad and very tired, which has affected the relationships I have with those close to me. I didn’t expect to deal with something of such emotional significance at this stage of my life.
“It saddens me deeply that all the people who knew and loved Louisa are not here to see that justice has been done.”
Image: Palmprint images. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
After her statement, Mr Justice Sweeting told Mrs Dainton: “It is not easy to talk about matters like this in public.
“Thank you very much for doing it in such a clear and dignified way.”
The judge told Headley his crimes showed “a complete disregard for human life and dignity.
“Mrs Dunne was vulnerable, she was a small elderly woman living alone. You treated her as a means to an end.
“The violation of her home, her body and ultimately her life was a pitiless and cruel act by a depraved man.
“She must have experienced considerable pain and fear before her death,” he said.
Sentencing Headley to life imprisonment with a minimum term of 20 years, the judge told him: “You will never be released, you will die in prison.”
Detective Inspector Dave Marchant of Avon and Somerset Police said Headley was “finally facing justice for the horrific crimes he committed against Louisa in 1967.
“The impact of this crime has cast a long shadow over the city and in particular Louisa’s family, who have had to deal with the sadness and trauma ever since.”
The officer praised Ms Dainton’s “resilience and courage” during what he called a “unique” case and thanked investigators from his own force, as well as South West Forensics, detectives from Suffolk Constabulary, the National Crime Agency and the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS).