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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.s speech is warbling, crackling, scratchysort of like Marge Simpsons. His voice, he told me, is fucked up. The official medical diagnosis is spasmodic dysphonia, a neurological disorder that causes involuntary spasms in the larynx. He didnt always sound this way; his speaking style changed when he was in his 40s. Kennedy has said he suspects an influenza vaccine might have been the catalyst. This idea is not supported by science.
He was telling me about his life with one arm outstretched on the velvet sofa of his suite at the Bowery Hotel in Lower Manhattan. It was the end of May, and a breeze blew in through the open doors leading to a private terrace. Two of his aides sat nearby, typing and eavesdropping. A security guard stood in the hallway.
Kennedy was finishing a plate of room-service risotto, and his navy tie was carefully tucked into his white button-down shirt. Hes taller, tanner, and buffer than the average 69-year-old. He is, after all, a Kennedy. His blue eyes oscillate between piercing and adrift, depending on the topic of discussion.
He told me that hes surrounded by integrative medical peoplenaturopaths, osteopaths, healers of all sorts. A lot of them think that they can cure me, he said. Last year, Kennedy traveled to Japan for surgery to try to fix his voice. Ive got these doctors that have given me a formula, he said. Theyre not even doctors, actually, these guys.
I asked him what, exactly, he was taking.
The stuff that they gave me? I dont know what it is. Its supposed to reorient your electric energy. He believes its working.
When he was 19, Kennedy jumped off a dock into shallow water, which he says left him nearly paralyzed. For decades, he could hardly turn his head. Seven years ago, at a convention of chiropractors, a healer performed a 30-minute manipulation of energymaking chanting noises while holding his hands six inches over Kennedys body. The next morning, his neck felt better. I dont know if they had anything to do with each other, but, you know, it was weird, he said.
Though hes been a member of the premier American political dynasty his whole life and a noted environmentalist for decades, most people are just now discovering the breadth and depth of Kennedys belief system. He has promoted a theory that Wi-Fi radiation causes cancer and leaky brain, saying it opens your blood-brain barrier. He has suggested that antidepressants might have contributed to the rise in mass shootings. He told me he believes that Ukraine is engaged in a proxy war and that Russias invasion, although illegal, would not have taken place if the United States didnt want it to.
Kennedy reached a new level of notoriety in 2021, after the publication of his conspiratorial treatise The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health. It has sold more than 1 million copies, according to his publisher, despite censorship, boycotts from bookstores and libraries, and hit pieces against the author. The book cemented his status as one of Americas foremost anti-vaxxers. It also helped lay the foundation for his Democratic presidential primary campaign against Joe Biden.
Read: The 2024 U.S. presidential race: A cheat sheet
On the campaign trail, he paints a conspiratorial picture of collusion among state, corporate, media, and pharmaceutical powers. If elected, he has said he would gut the Food and Drug Administration and order the Justice Department to investigate medical journals for lying to the public. His most ominous message is also his simplest: He feels his country is being taken away from him. Its a familiar theme, similar to former President Donald Trumps. But whereas Trump relies heavily on white identity politics, Kennedy is spinning up a more diverse web of supporters: anti-vaxxers, anti-government individuals, Silicon Valley magnates, freethinking celebrities, libertarians, Trump-weary Republicans, and Democrats who believe Biden is too old and feeble for a second term.
So far, Kennedy is polling in the double digits against Biden, sometimes as high as 20 percent. What had initially been written off as a stunt has evolved into a complex threat to both Biden and the establishment wing of the Democratic Party. Put another way: Kennedys support is real.
He is tapping into something burrowed deep in the national psyche. Large numbers of Americans dont merely scoff at experts and institutions; they loathe them. Falling down conspiratorial internet rabbit holes has become an entirely normal pastime. Study after study confirms a very real epidemic of loneliness. Scores of people are bored and depressed and searching for narratives to help explain their anxiety and isolation. Scroll through social media and count how many times you see the phrase Burn it down.
Even though Kennedy remains a long-shot candidate, his presence in the 2024 race cannot be ignored. My goal is to do the right thing, and whatever God wants is going to happen, Kennedy told me. He now earnestly believes that in 12 months, he will be the Democratic nominee for president.
Every individual, like every nation, has a darker side and a lighter side, Kennedy told me. And the easiest thing for a political leader to do is to appeal to all those darker angels.
He was talking about George Wallace, the segregationist Alabama governor and subject of Kennedys senior thesis at Harvard.
Most populism begins with a core of idealism, and then its hijacked, he said. Because the easiest way to keep a populist movement together is by appealingyou employ all the alchemies of demagogueryand appealing to our greed, our anger, our hatred, our fear, our xenophobia, tribal impulses.
Does Kennedy consider himself a populist? He considers himself a Democrat, his communications director, Stefanie Spear, told me in an email. The most charitable spin on Kennedys candidacy is that he aims to be the iconoclastic unifier of a polarized country. He looks in the mirror and sees a man fighting for the rights of the poor and the powerless, as his father did when he ran for president more than half a century ago.
Kennedy markets himself as a maverick, someone outside the system. But hes very much using his lineageson of Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, nephew of President John F. Kennedy and Senator Ted Kennedyas part of his sales pitch. Now living in Los Angeles with his third wife, the actor Cheryl Hines, he nonetheless launched his campaign in Boston, the center of the Kennedy universe. The phrase IM A KENNEDY DEMOCRAT is splashed across the center of his campaign website. Visitors can click through a carousel of wistful black-and-white family photos. There he is as a young boy with a gap-toothed smile, offering a salute. There he is visiting his Uncle John in the Oval Office.
Alan Brinkley: The legacy of John F. KennedyRobert F. Kennedy and his wife, Ethel, with their seven children, in February 1963. (Ethel was expecting their eighth child in June.) The boys, from left, are Robert Jr., 8; David, 7; Michael, 4; and Joe, 10. The girls, from left, are Kathleen, 11; Kerry, 3; and Mary Courtney, 6. (AP)
In reality, his relationship with his family is more complicated. Several of his siblings have criticized his anti-vaccine activism around COVID. Last year, at an anti-vaccine rally in Washington, D.C., Kennedy suggested that Jews in Nazi Germany had more freedom than Americans today. In response, his sister Kerry Kennedy tweeted, Bobbys lies and fear-mongering yesterday were both sickening and destructive. I strongly condemn him for his hateful rhetoric. (He later issued an apology.) In 2019, a trio of notable Kennedys wrote an op-ed in Politico pegged to a recent measles outbreak in the United States. RFK Jr., they said, has helped to spread dangerous misinformation over social media and is complicit in sowing distrust of te science behind vaccines. Several Kennedys serve in the Biden administration, and othersincluding RFK Jr.s younger sister Rory and his first cousin Patrickare actively supporting Bidens reelection effort.
Multiple eras of Kennedys life have been marked by violence and despair. He was just 14 years old when his father was assassinated. His second wife, Mary Richardson Kennedy, struggled with mental illness and died by suicide while the couple was estranged and in the process of divorcing. He told me he believes that almost every American has been exposed, mostly within their own families, to mental illness, depression, drug addiction, alcoholism. In 1983, Kennedy himself was arrested for heroin possession and entered rehab. He recently told The Washington Post that he still regularly attends 12-step meetings.
Kennedy maintains a mental list of everyone hes known who has died. He told me that each morning he spends an hour having a quiet conversation with those people, usually while out hiking alone. He asks the deceased to help him be a good person, a good father, a good writer, a good attorney. He prays for his six children. Hes been doing this for 40 years. The list now holds more than 200 names.
I asked him if he felt that his dad or uncle had sent him any messages encouraging him to run for president.
I dont really have two-way conversations of that type, he said. And I would mistrust anything that I got from those waters, because I know theres people throughout history who have heard voices.
He laughed.
Its hard to be the arbiter of your own sanity. Its dangerous.
The morning before we met, I watched a recent interview Kennedy had given to ABC News in which he said, I dont trust authority. In our conversation, I asked him how he planned to campaign on this message while simultaneously persuading voters to grant him the most consequential authority in the world.
My intention is to make authority trustworthy, he said, sounding like a shrewd politician. People dont trust authority, because the trusted authorities have been lying to them. The media lies to the public.
I was recording our conversation on two separate devices. I asked him if the dual recordings, plus the fact that he could see me taking notes, was enough to convince him that whatever I wrote would be accurate.
Your quotes of mine may be accurate, he said. Do I think that they may be twisted? I think thats highly likely.
I wondered why, if that was the case, he had agreed to talk with me at all.
Ill talk to anybody, he said.
That includes some of the most prominent figures in right-wing politics. He told me that hed met with Trump before he was inaugurated, and that he had once flown on Trumps private plane. (Later he said he believes Trump could lead America down the road to darkness.) He told me how, as a young man, he had spent several weeks in a tent in Kenya with Roger Ailesthey were filming a nature documentaryand how they had remained friends even though Kennedy disapproved of Ailess tactics at Fox News. He also brought up Tucker Carlson. I asked if hed spoken with the former Fox News host since his firing earlier this spring.
Ive texted with him, Kennedy said.
Whats he up to? I asked.
Hesyou know what hes up to. Hes starting a Twitter thing. Yeah, Im going to go on it. Theyve already contacted me.
Kennedy told me hes heard the whispers about the nature of his campaign. Some people believe his candidacy is just a stalking-horse bid to help elect Trump, or at least siphon support away from Biden.
One week before Kennedy entered the race, the longtime Trump ally and self-proclaimed dirty trickster Roger Stone wrote a curious Substack post titled What About Bobby? in which he suggested the idea of a Trump-Kennedy unity ticket. In a text message to me, Stone said his essay was nothing but a whimsical piece of writing, noting that the idea had legal and political obstacles. A photo of the two menplus former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, a notable conspiracy theoristhad been circulating on the internet; Stone called it opposition research from Bidens team. Contrary to Twitter created mythology, I dont know Robert Kennedy, he texted. I have no role in his campaign, and certainly played no role in his decision to run.
I asked Kennedy about a recent report that had gotten some attention: Had Steve Bannon encouraged him to enter the race?
From the July/August 2022 issue: American Rasputin
No, he said. I mean, let me put it this way: I never heard any encouragement from him. And I never spoke to him. He then offered a clarification: He had been a guest on Bannons podcast during the pandemic once or twice, and the two had met a few years before that.
When I asked Bannon if he had urged Kennedy to challenge Biden, he said, I dont want to talk about personal conversations. He told me he believes Kennedy could be a major political figure. I was pleasantly surprised when he announced, he said.
Hes drawing from many of those Trump votersthe two-time Obama, onetime Trumpthat are still disaffected, want change, and maybe havent found a permanent home in the Trump movement, Bannon said. Populist left, populist rightand where that Venn diagram overlapshes talking to those people. Bannon told me the audience for his podcast, War Room, loves Kennedy. I think Tuckers seeing it, Rogans seeing it, other peoplethe Tucker-Rogan-Elon-Bannon-combo-platter right, obviously some of us are farther right than othersI think are seeing it. Its a new nomenclature in politics, he said.
And obviously the Democrats are scared to death of it, so they dont even want to touch it. They want to pretend it doesnt exist.Photograph by Chris Buck for The Atlantic
Perhaps more than anyone in politics, Kennedy is the embodiment of the crunchy-to-conspiracist pipelinethe pathway from living a life honoring the natural world to questioning, well, everything you thought you knew. For much of his life, he was a respected attorney and environmentalist. In the 1980s, Kennedy began working with the nonprofit Riverkeeper to preserve New Yorks Hudson River, and he later co-founded the Waterkeeper Alliance, which is affiliated with conservation efforts around the world. Like many other environmentalists, he grew distrustful of government, convinced that regulatory agencies had fallen under the thrall of the corporations they were supposed to be supervising.
I asked Kennedy if there was a link between his earlier work and his present-day advocacy against vaccines. The most direct and concrete nexus is mercury, he said.
In the 2000s, Kennedy said, he read a report about the presence of mercury in fish. It struck me then that we were living in a science-fiction nightmare where my children and the children of most Americans could now no longer engage in this seminal primal activity of American youth, which is to go fishing with their father and mother at their local fishing hole and come home and safely eat the fish, he said.
As an environmentalist, Kennedy traveled around the country giving lectures, and about two decades ago, mercury poisoning became a focal point of these talks. He soon noticed a pattern: Mothers would approach him after his speeches, telling him about their childrens developmental issues, which they were convinced could be traced back to vaccines that contained thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative. They all had kind of the same story, Kennedy said. Which was striking to me, because my inclination would be to dismiss them.
Read: Inside the mind of an anti-vaxxer
He said that one of these women, a Minnesotan named Sarah Bridges, showed up on his front porch with a pile of studies 18 inches deep, telling him, Im not leaving here until you read those. Kennedy read the abstracts, and his beliefs about vaccines began to shift. He went on to become the founder of Childrens Health Defense, a prominent anti-vaccine nonprofit.
When I contacted Bridges, she noted that she is a college friend of Kennedys sister-in-lawand clarified that she had approached Kennedy while visiting his familys compound in Hyannis Port, Massachusetts. Nevertheless, she confirmed that she gave Kennedy a stack of documents related to thimerosal, and that this likely was the beginning of his anti-vaccine journey.
Bridgess family story is tragic: One of her children ended up in the hospital after receiving the pertussis vaccine. He now lives with a seizure disorder, developmental delays, and autismconditions Bridges believes were ultimately caused by his reaction to the vaccine, even though studies have shown that vaccines do not cause autism. Bridges says she received compensation from the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, colloquially known as vaccine court, for her sons brain damage.
Bridges doesnt consider herself an anti-vaxxer. She told me that she still talks with Kennedy once in a while, but that she was surprised to learn he was running for president. Shes a lifelong Democrat, and declined to say whether she would support him in the election. She did tell me that she has received two doses of the COVID vaccine. She views the extremity of her sons reaction as the exception, not the rule. I think the American public is smart enough that we can have a nuanced conversation: that vaccines can both be a public good and there can beand there, I think, isa subset of people who dont respond to them, she said.
Kennedys campaign manager, the former Ohio congressman and two-time presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich, strongly objects to anyone labeling his candidate anti-vax. When I used the term to describe Kennedy, Kucinich told me that such a characterization was a left-handed smear and a clipped assessment that has been used for political purposes by the adherents of the pharmaceutical industry who want to engage in a sort of absurd reductionism. Kennedy, he said, stands for vaccine safety.
I asked Kucinich to specify which vaccines Kennedy supports. He seemed flummoxed.
No! he said. This is no. Were notlook, no.
At one point, Kennedy looked me dead in the eye and asked if I knew where the term conspiracy theory came from. I did not. He informed me that the phrase was coined by the CIA after his uncles assassination in 1963 as part of a larger effort to discredit anyone who claimed that the shooter, Lee Harvey Oswald, hadnt acted alone. This origin story is not true. A recent Associated Press fact-check dates the terms usage as far back as 1863, and notes that it also appeared in reports after the shooting of President James Garfield in 1881.
JFKs assassination and Kennedys fathers, just five years apart, are two of the defining moments of modern American life. But they are difficult subjects to discuss with surviving family members without feeling exploitative. Kennedy doesnt shy away from talking about either murder, and embraces conspiracy theories about both.
I think the evidence that the CIA murdered my uncle is overwhelming, I would say, beyond a reasonable doubt, he said. As an attorney, I would be very comfortable arguing that case to a jury. I think that the evidence that the CIA murdered my father is circumstantial but very, very, very persuasive. Or very compelling. Let me put it that wayvery compelling. And of course the CIA participation in the cover-up of both those murders is also beyond a reasonable doubt. Its very well documented. (In a written statement, a CIA spokesperson said: The notion that CIA was involved in the deaths of either John F. Kennedy or Robert F. Kennedy is absolutely false.)
Two years ago, hundreds of QAnon supporters gathered in Dealey Plaza, the site of JFKs assassination. They were convinced that JFK Jr., who died in a plane crash in 1999, would dramatically reappear and that Donald Trump would be reinstated as president. I asked Kennedy what he made of all this.
Are you equating them with people who believe that my uncle was killed by the CIA? he asked. There was pain in his voice. It was the first time in our conversation that he appeared to get upset.
From the June 2020 issue: The prophecies of QRobert F. Kennedy Jr. as pallbearer during his fathers funeral (Photo by Fairchild Archive / Penske Media / Getty)
Unlike many conspiracists, Kennedy will actually listen to and respond to your questions. Hes personable, and does not come off as a jerk. But he gets essential facts wrong, and remains prone to statements that can leave you dumbfounded. Recently, the Fox News host Neil Cavuto had to correct him on air after he claimed that weas in the United Stateshad killed 350,000 Ukrainian kids.
I brought up the QAnon adherents whod flocked to Dallas because I wanted to know how he felt about the fact that so many disparate conspiracies in America were blending together. I asked him what he would say to Alex Jones, the conspiracist who spent years lying about the 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School.
Theres only so many discussions that you can have, and only so many areas where you can actually, you know, examine the evidence, Kennedy said. Id say, Show me the evidence of what youre saying, and lets look at it, and lets look at whether it is conceivably real. He told me he didnt know exactly what Jones had said about the tragedy. When I explained that Jones had claimed the whole thing was a hoaxand that he had lost a landmark defamation suitKennedy said he thought that was an appropriate outcome. If somebody says somethings wrong, sue them.
I mean, he said, I know people whose children were killed at Sandy Hook.
Who will vote for Kennedy?
He was recently endorsed by the Clueless star Alicia Silverstone. Earlier this month, Jack Dorsey, the hippie billionaire and a Twitter co-founder, shared a Fox News clip of Kennedy saying he could beat Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis in 2024. He can and will, Dorsey tweeted. Another tech mogul, David Sacks, recently co-hosted a fundraiser for Kennedy, as well as a Twitter Spaces event with him alongside his PayPal mafia ally Elon Musk. Sacks, whose Twitter header photo features a banner that reads FREE SPEECH , has an eclectic history of political donations: Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, and DeSantis, to name a few.
Kennedy continues to win praise from right-wing activists, influencers, and media outlets. While some of this support feels earnest, like a fawning multithousand-word ode from National Review, others feel like a wink. The New York Post covered his campaign-kickoff event under the headline Never Seen So Many Hot MILFs: Inside RFK Jrs White House Bid Launch.
So far, Kennedy hasnt staged many rallies. He favors long, winding media appearances. (Hes said that he believes 2024 will be decided by podcasts.) He recently talked COVID and 5G conspiracy theories with Joe Rogan, and his conversation with Jordan Peterson was removed from YouTube because of what the company deemed COVID misinformation. The day we met, Kennedy told me that he had just recorded a podcast with the journalist Matt Taibbi.
I asked Taibbi, who wrote for me when I was an editor at Rolling Stone and who now publishes independently on Substack, if he could see himself voting for Kennedy next year.
Yeah, its possible, Taibbi said. I didnt vote for anybody last time, because it was He trailed off, stifling laughter. I just couldnt bring myself to do it. So if he manages to get the nomination, I would certainly consider it.
Years ago, in a long Rolling Stone article, Kennedy falsely asserted that the 2004 election had been stolen. The article has since been deleted from the magazines online archive.
Ive never been a fan of electoral-theft stories, Taibbi said. But I dont have to agree with RFK about everything, he added. Hes certainly farther along on his beliefs about the vaccine than I am. But I think he is tapping into something that I definitely feel is legitimate, which is this frustration with the kind of establishment reporting, and this feeling of a lack of choice, and the frustration over issues like Ukraineyou know, that kind of stuff. I totaly get his candidacy from that standpoint.
Kennedys campaign operation is lean. He told Sacks and Musk that he has only about 50 people on the payroll. Hes beginning to spend more time in the early-voting state of New Hampshire. I asked Kucinich about Kennedys plans for summer: large-scale rallies? A visit to the Iowa State Fair? He could offer no concrete details, and told me to stay tuned.
Read: The case for a primary challenge to Joe Biden
Despite the buzz and early attention, Kennedy does not have a clear path to the nomination. No incumbent president in modern history has been defeated in a primary. (Kennedys uncle Ted came close during his primary challenge to Jimmy Carter in the 1980 election.) Following decades of precedent, the Democratic National Committee wont hold primary debates against a sitting president.
Were not spending much time right now thinking about the DNC, he said. Were organizing our own campaign.
Spokespeople for the DNC, the Biden campaign, and the White House did not offer comment for this article.
Democrats know RFK Jr. isnt actually a Democrat, Jim Messina, who led Barack Obamas 2012 reelection campaign and is in close touch with the Biden 2024 team, said in a statement. He is not a legitimate candidate in the Democratic primary and shouldnt be treated like one. His offensive ideas align him with Trump and the other GOP candidates running for president, and are repellent to what Democrats and swing voters are looking for.
I asked Kennedy what he thought would be more harmful to the country: four more years of Biden or another term for Trump.
I cant answer that, he said.
He paused for a long beat. He shook his head, then pivoted the conversation to Russia.
I think that either one of them is, you knowI mean, I can conceive of Biden getting us into a nuclear war right now.
Kennedys 2024 campaign, like Trumps, has an epic We are engaged in a final showdown tenor to it. But maybe this sentiment runs deeper than his current candidacy. These are the opening lines of Kennedys 2018 memoir, American Values:
From my youngest days I always had the feeling that we were all involved in some great crusade, that the world was a battleground for good and evil, and that our lives would be consumed in that conflict. It would be my good fortune if I could play an important or heroic role.
Read: The martyr at CPAC
Since meeting Kennedy, Ive thought about what he said about populismhow it emerges, how its exploited and weaponized. He seems to believe that he is doing the right thing by running for president, that history has finally found him, as it found his uncle and father. That he is the manthe Kennedyto lead America through an era of unrelenting chaos. But I dont know how to believe his message when its enveloped in exaggeration, conspiracy, and falsehoods.
The United States has grown only more conspiratorial in the half century since the publication of Richard Hofstadters The Paranoid Style in American Politics. There are those who refuse to get the COVID vaccine because of the slim potential of adverse side effects, and then there are those who earnestly fear that these inoculations are a way for the federal government to implant microchips in the bodies of citizens. The line between fact and fantasy has blurred, and fewer and fewer Americans are tethered to something larger or more meaningful than themselves.
Kennedy was raised in the Catholic Church and regularly attended Mass for most of his life. These days, he told me, his belief system is drawn from a wide array of sources.
The first line of the Tao is something to the effect that If it can be said, then its not truththat the path that is prescribed to you is never the true path, that basically we all have to find our own path to God, and to enlightenment, or nirvana, or whatever you call it, he said.
Hes now walking his familys path, determined to prevail in the battle of good against evil. Hes said hes running under the premise of telling people the truth.
But as with so many of the stories he tells, its hard to square Kennedys truth with reality.
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Sports
CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’s close ahead of first committee ranking?
Published
1 hour agoon
November 4, 2025By
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The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.
Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
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Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
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First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
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Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
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First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
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Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
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First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
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Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
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First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
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Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.
Group of 5
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Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.

Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
UK
Why Chancellor Rachel Reeves chose ‘shock and awe’ 8am news conference
Published
1 hour agoon
November 4, 2025By
admin

To understand why Rachel Reeves stood up at 8am in Downing Street in an unprecedented news conference to foreshadow the budget, you need to understand the depth of the problems facing the chancellor.
In 22 days, she must perform the biggest U-turn it is possible for a chancellor to make.
She must hike taxes to the tune of tens of billions of pounds, having promised in the election manifesto that this would not be necessary, and reiterated this promise under a year ago after an initial £40bn of rises.
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2:40
Has the public heard the warning?
Not many inhabitants of Number 11 would stay in post if they had to make such a pivot.
But Sir Keir Starmer cannot lose her and know for sure that he also stays in place.
So Ms Reeves is battling for her credibility – and ultimately the survival of this government. The stakes are high.
Politics latest: Reeves refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises
More on Budget 2025
Related Topics:
So back to this morning. Ever since the summer, those in Westminster have known tax rises are on the way in the autumn budget. A Treasury source told me that pitch-rolling for the budget began in July – yet their issue is that to date, almost no-one had noticed.
The subject of the budget was an omerta as recently as the Labour conference a month ago – it simply wasn’t on the agenda in Liverpool.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a highly unusual pre-budget speech in Downing Street. Pic: PA
The first public acknowledgement that she was looking at taxes was in an interview with me on Sky News three weeks ago. She has intermittently revisited the subject subsequently, but quite bluntly, the public haven’t yet noticed.
As recently as last week, people in the Treasury were acknowledging to me that the public are as yet unprepared for the tax shock expected on the scale on 26 November.
So this morning’s event was designed to be shock and awe – an 8am news conference is designed to jolt Westminster and the viewing public to attention, because inside the Treasury they are “desperate” – their words – to get the public watching.
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2:13
Rigby: Reeves speech ‘unprecedented’
The format allows her to look in control, like a stateswoman in Downing Street making arguments on her terms, even though these are arguments she has been forced into.
So the job of this morning was to educate the public that tax rises are coming, but also put them on notice that this could involve a breach of manifesto promises by raising one of income tax, national insurance, corporation tax or VAT – and then to try and lay the blame anywhere but at the feet of this government.
She also wants to give some hope – by giving a sense of what priorities she would protect.
So what to make of the arguments she made?
‘The impact of Tory austerity, their botched Brexit deal and the pandemic on Britain’s productivity is worse than feared’
Is it really all the Tories fault?
Ms Reeves made an argument today about how lower growth is responsible for Britain’s economic ills, and listed causes with a long tale going back many years for it. This is true, but isn’t strictly the reason for her problems at this budget.
On 26 November, she must fill a £20bn-£30bn “black hole” – that’s the extent to which she is in on course to breach her own self-imposed borrowing limits, known as fiscal rules.
Many of the components of the black hole cannot be put at the door of the Tories. Here’s why:
She must find £10bn to account for policy decisions the government has been pushed into – a failure to push through welfare reform, a U-turn on winter fuel payments, a likely rollover of fuel duty.
She is likely to have to find a further £5bn for decisions she is likely to take – scrapping of the two-child benefit cap, help for energy bills and an emergency injection for redundancy bills and strike coverage costs.
So £15bn of the black hole cannot be blamed on the Tories.
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1:48
Badenoch says Reeves is ‘just making excuses’
A further £2bn-£4bn for additional debt interest costs is a consequence of the higher borrowing just since the March spring statement – again not the Tories’ fault – and also wants £10bn to give herself a bigger buffer to exit the doom loop.
Ms Reeves has greater scope to argue that the productivity review has longer-term causes, but this is likely to be offset by better wage news, and there is an argument that Labour could have foreseen the productivity downgrade before the election because the Office for Budget Responsibility figures were out of line with other forecasters.
So this is a tricky case to sustain, even though the government has no choice but to make it.
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1:48
Sam Coates and Anne McElvoy discuss the UK’s economic ‘doom loop’.
👉Listen to Politics At Sam And Anne’s on your podcast app👈
‘Protecting our NHS, reducing our national debt and improving the cost of living’
The news is grim – but this is the chancellor’s promise of what she is going to prioritise. But what does this amount to?
NHS: I understand this is not a promise of new money for waiting lists in this budget. Ms Reeves is actually making a political argument about the need to not U-turn on last year’s £22bn a year NHS investment – although the public may not hear it.
Cost of living: Partly this is an argument about investment already made in things like breakfast clubs. But with CPI inflation at 4.1%, it’s a major concern – but not one that can be tackled without government spending many billions. There will be some help for energy bills, but not the tens of billions that Liz Truss put towards such schemes. So this risks disappointment.
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18:28
Watch the chancellor’s speech in full
Reducing debt: It is not about to go down. Her fiscal rules mean she is going to be reducing debt as a percentage of GDP – and even then, only debt on some things, as the fiscal rules spell out some exemptions. So the actual amount we borrow from the markets will continue to grow.
Does it work?
Today is about saying with a louder megaphone things we already knew. She declined to say whether ultimately she will break the manifesto, or what will happen.
She has, however, candidly started a conversation that needed to begin.
Sports
Sources: ChiSox picking up Robert’s $20M option
Published
1 hour agoon
November 4, 2025By
admin

-

Jesse RogersNov 4, 2025, 09:49 AM ET
Close- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CHICAGO — The Chicago White Sox are picking up the $20 million option on center fielder Luis Robert Jr.‘s contract for 2026, sources tell ESPN.
Robert, 27, hit .223 with 14 home runs and 33 stolen bases last season while playing in 110 games. The oft-injured veteran hasn’t produced at a high level over the last two years but continues to possess an elite skill set. His biggest improvement came in reducing his strikeout totals. He had 172 in 2023. That fell to 141 in 2024 and just 112 last season.
While the strikeouts have gone down — he’s chasing fewer bad pitches — so have his home runs. After hitting 38 in 2023, he’s combined for just 28 over the last two seasons.
Robert has been the subject of trade rumors since the White Sox began an extended rebuild at the beginning of 2024 but the team has held out for a high return, citing his past success. He had an .857 OPS in 2023 after playing in a career high 145 games that season. He just hasn’t been able to repeat those numbers, limiting the offers the White Sox have received to this point. He had an OPS of .657 in 2024 and .661 in 2025.
Robert’s 6-year, $50 million contract ran out at the end of this season. The team has another $20 million option on him for 2027 as well.
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