Portfolio manager says OPEC+ alliance could break — sending oil prices down to $35 a barrel
An influential oil producers’ alliance could collapse if unity dissolves around output policy, according to the managing partner of investing group Clean Energy Transition.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Per Lekander said waning oil demand growth and a lack of cooperation may facilitate the demise of OPEC+ — a group of 23 nations that produces roughly 40% of the world’s crude oil.
The breakup of OPEC+, Lekander said, could send oil prices careening to as low as $35 per barrel.
“In a growing market, time is your friend. You just need to wait a bit and things tighten up and improve,” Lekander said. “In a declining market, time is your enemy. You have to keep cutting, keep cutting, keep cutting.”
He added, “The more negative growth [there] is, and the less cooperation you have — and remember the last OPEC decision, it was really the Saudis doing it on their own … so I would say, if my forecast is correct, and I’m very sure it is … it is going to break.”
A spokesperson for OPEC was not immediately available to comment.
OPEC+ has been trimming oil production since November. Oil prices, which are down sharply year-to-date, were trading slightly higher on Thursday afternoon.
Brent crude futures with September expiry were up around 0.8% at $83.53 a barrel at around midday London time, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures with September delivery rose 1% to trade at $79.56 a barrel. Both contracts are up over 12% so far this month.
“There was a period in the 1990s and the 2000s where supply was so much, they couldn’t jack up the price, but for most of the time, the oil price since 1974 has been artificially too high,” Lekander said.
“If the cartel can’t operate, I would say short-term you go to $35 and mid-term probably $45,” he added.
The OPEC+ group has sought to distance itself from accusations of cartel behavior, saying its policies target global supply inventories, rather than specific fixed prices. Nevertheless, some Middle East nations in the coalition, which heavily depend on fossil fuel revenues, list oil price assumptions and forecasts in their national budget plans.
OPEC and allies
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was initially formed in 1960 by five founding members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The alliance rose to international prominence through the following decade and has gradually expanded. OPEC joined forces with 10 non-OPEC partners — including heavyweight Russia — to jointly agree production policy in 2016, informally creating the coalition known as OPEC+.
OPEC itself is actively seeking to recruit new members to the alliance, Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais said in early July.
OPEC+ officials have frequently stressed the group’s unity in policy-making, although allied countries typically also vie to protect national interests when accepting output commitments. OPEC+ cooperation briefly ceased for one month in 2020, triggering a price war as Russia and Saudi Arabia flooded the market. The alliance later reunited in May of that year, agreeing stark production cuts to address the drop in global demand triggered by lower transport fuel consumption, after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since then, the OPEC+ alliance has been careful to telegraph unity in its decision-making, including in its voluntary production cuts.
In addition to their coalition commitments, several OPEC+ members are now carrying out 1.66 million barrels per day of discretionary output declines until the end of 2024. Saudi Arabia and Russia are further implementing an additional 1 million-barrels-per-day and a 500,000 barrels-per-day drop in their production and exports over July and August, respectively.
The U.S., which is not a member of the OPEC+ group, has repeatedly called on the alliance to pump more to help the global economy and has criticized Riyadh’s cooperation with Moscow following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has frequently ignored Washington’s demands and reportedly said earlier this month that it would do “whatever necessary” to support the market.
Both OPEC+ officials and the Paris-based International Energy Agency have signaled a potential supply crunch in the second half of the year, when the institutions anticipate a pickup in demand.
A technical committee of the OPEC+ group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, will meet early next month to assess compliance and market fundamentals. The JMMC cannot change the existing OPEC+ policy, but it can call for a meeting of the group’s ministers to do so.
The first electric Range Rover is expected to hit showrooms in the next few months. With its official debut just around the corner, Range Rover’s first EV was spotted testing in Sweden. Here’s a sneak peek of the luxury electric SUV.
Range Rover’s first EV put through the paces in Sweden
Range Rover is finally gearing up to introduce its first EV later this year. Earlier this year, JLR confirmed that the Range Rover Electric already has 57,000 buyers on the waiting list.
The company claims the new model “redefines” the electric luxury SUV with an “unrivalled driving experience.” To prove it, Range Rover is putting its first EV through the paces in sub-zero conditions in Sweden.
Range Rover’s electric SUV has been through 45,000 miles of testing across frozen lakes and land tracks. The latest round allowed engineers to test their new thermal management system.
The company’s new ThermAssist thermal management system reduces heat energy consumption by up to 40% and is designed to warm the propulsion system or cabin in temperatures as low as ‑10°C (14°F).
Range Rover said it also helps optimize driving range while minimizing the impact of extreme temperatures on charging performance.
Combined with an 800V battery, the first one built in-house by JLR, the company promises the best possible performance, with optimized energy density, range, and charging times. The Range Rover’s first EV will be powered by a 117 kWh battery, consisting of 344 prismatic cells.
Built for both on- and off-road performance, the electric SUV features new additions like single-pedal driving and a switchable twin-chamber air suspension system.
Range Rover tested the single-pedal capabilities on both 28-degree and 17-degree split-mu inclines at its Arctic test facility.
Matt Becker, Vehicle Engineering Director at JLR, explained that the electric SUV maintains the brand’s signature driving experience “by marrying all the essential Range Rover elements with new and advanced technologies.”
Following its second season in Sweden, Range Rover will continue testing prototypes ahead of the official launch later this year.
After its first EV, Range Rover is already preparing another smaller electric SUV, which is expected to be the Sport model. In 2026, the company is expected to release a mid-sized electric SUV, likely the Velar.
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Volvo is launching a nearly $2 billion (SEK 18 billion) restructuring plan to drive growth and mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs. With the new EX30 and ES90 EVs rolling out, Volvo is taking drastic action to drive growth.
Volvo launches restructuring plan due to Trump’s tariffs
After its operating income fell by nearly 60% to SEK 1.9 billion in the first quarter, Volvo launched a cost and cash action plan.
The restructuring is worth SEK 18 billion, with most of it being realized in 2026. Volvo’s new strategy includes SEK 3 billion in variable cost actions and SEK 5 billion in indirect spend efficiencies. The additional SEK 10 billion will be added in cash actions to reduce working capital and capital expenditures this year and in 2026.
Volvo Cars CEO Håkan Samuelsson said, “The automotive industry is in the middle of a very difficult period with challenges not seen before.”
With “turbulence in the market,” Samuelsson added that the company needs to “further improve our cash flow generation and lower our costs.”
To do so, Volvo is focusing on three areas: profitability, electrification, and regionalisation. Volvo is already leading the premium segment, with electrified vehicles accounting for 43% of sales in Q1. However, with new EVs launching, Volvo said more will need to be done to overcome the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Volvo created a new region called Americas, which includes the US, Canada, and Latin America, to streamline its global operations.
In the US, the company is looking to sharpen its product line-up and plans to boost production at its Charleston, South Carolina, plant.
Earlier this month, Volvo started production of the EX30 at its Ghent plant, which will help it ramp up deliveries in the second half of 2025.
Since it will be imported into the US, Volvo is bracing to take a hit from tariffs. Even the EX90, which is made in Charleston, is heavily impacted, as most components still come from Europe.
Volvo also revealed the new ES90 last month, its new electric sedan and second EV built on the Volvo Cars Superset Tech Stack. It’s Volvo’s sixth fully electric vehicle following the EX90, EM90, EX40, EX40, and EX30.
In China, Volvo plans to adapt to the changing market with its first extended-range PHEV model, which will launch later this year.
Volvo said it remains “firm on becoming a fully electric car company.” Despite a weaker overall market, almost a fifth of the vehicles it sold in the first quarter were electric.
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In a warming world with increasingly extreme weather events, homeowners are turning to backup batteries for relief and peace of mind. But the backup only lasts only so long, and there’s a bigger problem at play: aging power grids.
Enter the virtual power plant, managed through a cloud-based system. It’s a fertile market for a number of companies as consumers look for more reliability, especially in areas prone to extreme temperatures and storms.
Base Power, headquartered in Austin, Texas, is a virtual power plant and hardware company that provides battery backup to homeowners. The startup manages the batteries, and virtually controls the power that’s going in and out.
“We install our batteries on our customers’ homes. When the grid is up and running, we use those batteries to support the power grid,” said Base CEO Zach Dell. “When the grid goes out, our customers get those batteries to back up their home. We’re also able to save our customers on the order of 10 to 20% a month on their electricity bills.”
Unlike Tesla and Enphase, Base doesn’t sell home backup batteries. Rather, it rents the batteries to homeowners, providing the hardware, software, installation, operations and electricity. Essentially, it’s a battery-based energy company.
“We own and operate it,” Dell said. “We handle all the maintenance. We take care of the system like it’s ours.”
That control allows Base to manipulate how the battery is used, specifically accessing cheaper power and passing that savings on to the consumer. Base charges the battery from the grid when demand is low, typically during overnight hours. When demand is at its peak — summer evenings and winter mornings — Base sells power, discharging the battery to support the grid.
For an upfront fee of $595 and then about $19 a month, homeowners get access to reliable power, provided by Base. That power is generated by several sources, including wind, solar, natural gas and coal. About half of Base’s customers have solar, according to the company, which lowers their costs even more and allows them to sell that power back to Base.
A company spokesperson said Base compensates customers for the power they sell back, calculated as the real-time wholesale energy price plus an additional 3 cents per kilowatt hour. Buyback rates may vary depending on market conditions and other factors.
Base is now serving one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, Lennar, which is also an investor. Base installs batteries during the construction process in roughly 20 Lennar outage-prone communities in Texas.
Stuart Miller, Chairman and co-CEO of Lennar, said it’s not just about making money.
“It’s, are we going to be able to improve the overall stature of the home building business, as it seeks to address the markets that are stressed and having problems?” he said. “Utilities and electricity is a part of that.”
Base has raised a total of $268 million from investors including Lennar, Thrive Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Andreesen Horowitz.
Base recently announced its first utility partnership near San Antonio. Dell said the company hopes to soon expand outside of Texas. However, the batteries are made in China, and Dell said he expects to see an impact from tariffs.
— CNBC producer Lisa Rizzolo contributed to this piece.
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