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The Bank of England is expected to increase its interest rate for the 14th time in a row today.

Economists believe a 0.25 percentage point rise – to 5.25% – is the most likely increase to be announced at midday.

However, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) defied expectations last time when they hiked the rate by a bigger than expected 0.5 percentage points in June. There are some who think that could happen again.

Governor Andrew Bailey has said that increases will help bring down high inflation in the UK to the Bank’s target of 2% – although some critics are not convinced it is the right strategy.

Rising interest rates mean bigger borrowing costs – including larger monthly mortgage payments for many homeowners, which can have a knock-on effect of higher rents for tenants.

But, in theory, they should also result in much better rates for savers. However, concerns have been raised that many banks are not fully passing on such benefits to customers.

The Bank of England’s “shock” hike in the interest rate in June came after inflation did not fall as predicted, and instead remained at 8.7% in the year up to May.

However, inflation then dropped by more than expected to 7.9% the following month.

The last time the bank base rate stood at 5.25% was 15 years ago in March 2008.

The MPC’s announcement will be closely watched for its impact on the housing market – and the wider economy, amid fears that rising rates could help push the UK into recession.

The Nationwide Building Society said earlier this week that property values declined by 3.8% in July, the biggest drop in 14 years. It blamed dampened demand on stretched affordability for mortgages.

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According to figures from Moneyfacts, the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate was 6.85% on Monday and Tuesday.

Over the same period, the average five-year fixed residential mortgage rate was 6.37%, the financial information company said.

A survey of economists found they believe there is a 64% probability of the interest rate being increased by 0.25 percentage points on Thursday, and a 36% chance of a 0.50 percentage points rise.

But Joseph Calnan, from payments provider Moneycorp, said it was “anyone’s guess” what the MPC would do.

He said: “For the first time in a long time, we’re unsure what to expect at this next meeting. We could see a 50 bps [basis points] hike, a 25 bps hike, or even no change at all given [inflation] finally eased off in June after a stubborn 11 months.”

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Payments watchdog could be abolished in PM’s purge of regulators

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Payments watchdog could be abolished in PM's purge of regulators

Britain’s payments watchdog is expected to be abolished as part of a purge of regulators being thrashed out in Whitehall.

Sky News has learnt that ministers and officials are examining whether to scrap the Payment Systems Regulator (PSR) and fold it into the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

A decision is expected to be taken in principle within weeks, although sources indicated this weekend that the government was “actively considering” a decision to scrap the body.

If confirmed, it would form part of a crackdown on Britain’s economic regulators instigated by Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, and Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, as they seek to cut red tape and stimulate economic growth.

The chairman of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), Marcus Bokkerink, was ousted by ministers last month amid concerns that it was paying too little heed to UK competitiveness.

Mr Bokkerink was replaced by Doug Gurr, a former Amazon executive.

Since then, both the chair and chief executive of the Financial Ombudsman Service have announced plans to step down.

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Speaking in January, Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, signalled that a number of watchdogs could be abolished, saying: “We’ve got to genuinely ask ourselves the question: have we got the right number of regulators?”

He did not publicly identify which of them could be axed, although the Financial Times reported this week that the chancellor would order an audit of roughly 130 regulators across the economy to assess whether they were sufficiently focused on growth.

On Christmas Eve, the PM and chancellor wrote to about 15 major regulators – including Ofcom, Ofgem and Ofwat – demanding ideas for how to remove bureaucracy from the economy and more proactively encourage growth.

Ms Reeves has since held a number of roundtable discussions with the recipients of the letter.

The PSR employs roughly 160 people, according to its website, and is directly accountable to parliament.

It was created under the Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013, and became operational two years later.

The body, which is accountable to parliament, has been criticised by industry and politicians over its regulatory approach, including in relation to fraud reimbursement by financial services firms.

Nevertheless, its function is regarded as critical as technology reshapes the global payments industry.

David Geale, the interim managing director of the PSR, has been in post since last summer.

The watchdog is chaired by Aidene Walsh, a former boss of the financial wellbeing charity, the Fairbanking Foundation.

Sheldon Mills, the FCA’s executive director, consumers and competition, also sits on the PSR board.

One source said scrapping the PSR and folding it into the FCA would make sense for several reasons, including the questions over its performance.

“No other major economy has a standalone payments regulator like this, and it is hard to make the case for it continuing to exist,” the source said this weekend.

The Treasury declined to comment, while the PSR did not respond to an emailed enquiry on Saturday morning.

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Low-paid jobs at risk from Labour’s tax increases on businesses

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Low-paid jobs at risk from Labour's tax increases on businesses

Cliff Nicholls runs two trampoline parks and indoor play centres: one in Tamworth in the West Midlands, the other in Bolton, Greater Manchester. He’s already feeling the pressure from the government’s latest budget measures and has been forced to abandon further investment plans.

“The national minimum wage increases coming in April, combined with the reduced thresholds for national insurance and the increased rate of employers’ national insurance, will have a very significant impact,” Cliff said.

To cut costs, he’s already made drastic changes. “We’ve had to take some fairly radical decisions, reducing our opening hours, making a senior staff member redundant because of rising business costs, including business rates and national insurance,” he added.

Cliff
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Cliff Nicholls

While policies like the National Living Wage (NLW) increase are designed to support low-paid workers, other changes could offset these benefits.

One major shift is the reduction in the salary threshold at which businesses start paying employer’s national insurance contributions (NICs).

Currently, employers begin paying NICs when an employee earns more than £9,100 per year. From April 2025, this threshold will drop to £5,000. At the same time, the employer’s NI rate will rise from 13.8% to 15%.

Scroll through to see Cliff’s staffing finances

Under the new system, an employer will be paying nearly £800 more in NICs annually for an employee earning around £23,800 (based on a 37.5-hour week at the new NLW).

The rise in NICs will be proportionally higher for employers of lower-paid workers. For example, they will pay around 7% for someone earning £9,000 a year and 3% for an employee on the NLW. But for someone earning £75,000 a year, employers will pay 2% more.

Extended employment rights and business rates add pressure

Labour also announced a series of employment rights reforms aimed at improving working conditions. These include extending statutory sick pay to lower-paid employees who were previously ineligible and making it available from the first day of illness for all workers.

The changes would also enable employees to claim unpaid parental leave from their first day in a job, strengthen protections against unfair dismissal, and enhance rights for those on zero-hours contracts.

The government estimates that these employment rights changes will cost businesses around £5bn.

Nye Cominetti, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “What concerns me is that employer national insurance increases, like the minimum wage and employment rights changes, disproportionately impact low-paid workers.

“For instance, extending statutory sick pay to those previously ineligible adds costs for employers already facing higher NICs and rising wages. In this context, it would have been more sensible to raise tax revenue in a way that didn’t hit low-paid workers the hardest.”

Trampoline
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Cliff is having to abandon expansion plans due to budget changes

But for Cliff, the changes to business rates relief are an even bigger challenge. Budget changes will mean business rates relief will drop from 75% to 45% for retail, leisure, and hospitality businesses, significantly increasing his costs.

“The business rates changes probably have a bigger impact on us than national insurance,” he explained.

“One of our buildings used to be in a prime edge-of-town retail park 25 years ago. The rental value has dropped significantly since but business rates haven’t kept pace. Next year, we’ll be paying between £55,000 and £60,000 more just in business rates.”

Cliff is not alone in his concerns.

Research conducted by the Federation of Small Businesses found that in the final three months of last year, confidence among small firms fell to its lowest level in a decade, excluding the pandemic.

Are these changes impacting inflation?

Higher prices for food, goods, and services will also put pressure on working people.

New data from the Office for National Statistics shows that inflation rose to 3% in January 2025, the highest level in 10 months.

Many businesses had warned this would happen, saying that rising national insurance costs and the increase in the NLW would leave them with no choice but to raise prices.

The latest Quarterly Economic Survey by the British Chambers of Commerce, conducted after the budget, surveyed more than 4,800 businesses. It found that more than half expect to increase prices in the next three months, up from 39% in the third quarter of 2024.

Businesses are making tough decisions

Signs of pressure are already emerging.

Lord Wolfson, a Conservative peer and chief executive of Next, has warned that it will become harder for people to enter the workforce.

In an interview with the BBC, he said that the rise in NICs for businesses would hit the retail sector particularly hard, with entry-level jobs most affected.

He urged the government to phase in the tax changes rather than implement them in full in April, warning that otherwise, businesses would be forced to cut jobs or reduce working hours.

While it is not possible to fully attribute this to budget announcements, early data suggests that the workforce has been shrinking across various industries since October 2024, with the biggest declines in sectors that employ large numbers of lower-paid workers, such as manufacturing, retail, and hospitality.

Since the budget, the number of payrolled employees has fallen by more than 10,000 in manufacturing and nearly 9,000 in hospitality.

Since the budget, voluntary liquidations have remained consistently high and from December 2024 to January 2025 voluntary business closures have gone up by 9%.

While this can’t be solely attributed to upcoming budget measures, it does highlight the challenges businesses are facing and the difficult decisions they are making as a result.

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An HM Treasury spokesperson said: “We delivered a once-in-a-parliament budget to wipe the slate clean and deliver the stability businesses need to invest and grow, while protecting working people’s payslips from higher taxes, ensuring more than half of employers either see a cut or no change in their National Insurance bills, and delivering a record pay boost for millions of workers.

“Now we are going further and faster to kickstart economic growth and raise living standards, with a majority of business leaders confident that the chancellor’s plans will help drive business investment.

“This includes backing businesses to create wealth across Britain by capping corporation tax, making full expensing permanent and permanently cutting business rates for retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses on the high street from next year.”

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Parents must not pay mandatory extra charges to access free childcare, government says

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Parents must not pay mandatory extra charges to access free childcare, government says

Parents who are entitled to hours of free childcare should not have to pay mandatory extra charges to secure their nursery place, the government has said.

Updated guidance from the Department for Education states that while nurseries are entitled to ask parents to pay for extras – including meals, snacks, nappies or sun cream – these charges must be voluntary rather than mandatory.

The guidance, which comes amid concerns that parents have faced high additional charges on top of the funded hours, also states that local councils should intervene if a childcare provider seeks to make additional charges a condition for parents accessing their hours.

Since September last year, parents and carers with children aged nine months and older have been entitled to 15 hours of government-funded childcare a week, rising to 30 hours for three to four year-olds.

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From this September, the 30 hours of care will be made available to all families – a rollout that was first introduced under the previous Conservative government.

However, there have been concerns that in order to subsidise shortfalls in funding, nurseries have charged parents extra for essentials that would normally have been included in fees.

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Under the new guidance, nurseries will be now obliged to clearly set out any additional costs parents will have to pay, including on their websites.

It says invoices should be itemised so parents can see a breakdown of the free entitlement hours, additional private paid hours and all the additional charges.

‘Fundamental financial challenges facing the sector’

Representatives of childcare providers welcomed the announcement but pointed out the financial stress that many nurseries were under.

Neil Leitch, chief executive of the Early Years Alliance, said: “While we fully agree that families should be able to access early entitlement hours without incurring additional costs, in reality, years of underfunding have made it impossible for the vast majority of settings to keep their doors open without relying on some form of additional fees or charges.

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Free childcare in England

“As such, while it is absolutely right that providers should be transparent with parents on any optional additional fees, today’s guidance does absolutely nothing to address – or even acknowledge – the fundamental financial challenges facing the sector.”

He added: “Given that from September, government will control the price of around 80% of early years provision, it has never been more important for that funding to genuinely reflect the true cost of delivering places.

“And yet we know in many areas, this year’s rate increases won’t come close to mitigating the impact April’s National Insurance and wage rises, meaning that costs for both providers and families are likely to spiral.”

In last year’s budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the amount businesses will pay on their employees’ national insurance contributions will increase from 13.8% to 15% from April this year.

She also lowered the current £9,100 threshold employers start paying national insurance on employees’ earnings to £5,000, in what she called a “difficult choice” to make.

Last month a survey from the National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA) found that cost increases from April will force nurseries to raise fees by an average of 10%.

Analysis by Anjum Peerbacos, education reporter

This could be welcome news for working parents as they approach the end of another half term break during which they will have incurred childcare costs.

But this money would not affect school age children.

It is dedicated to very young children, aged two or below and is targeting parents, predominantly mothers, that want to return to work.

Previously after doing the sums and factoring in childcare costs, many mums would have felt that it wasn’t worth it.

And so, if these funds are easily accessible on a local level it could make a real difference to those wanting to get back to work.

The survey, covering nurseries in England, revealed that staffing costs will increase by an average of 15%, with respondents saying that more than half of the increase was due to the national insurance decision in the budget.

Purnima Tanuku CBE, chief executive of the NDNA, said “taking away the flexibility for providers around charges could seriously threaten sustainability”.

“The funding government pays to providers has never been about paying for meals, snacks or consumables, it is to provide early education and care,” she said.

“Childcare places have historically been underfunded with the gap widening year on year.

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Parents ‘frustrated’ over rising childcare demand

“From April, the operating costs for the average nursery will go up by around £47,000 once statutory minimum wages and changes to national insurance contributions are implemented. NIC changes have not been factored into the latest funding rates, further widening the underfunding gap.”

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The Department for Education said its offer to parents meant they could save up to £7,500 on average when using the full 30 hours a week of government-funded childcare support, compared to if they were paying for it themselves.

In December, the government also announced that a £75m expansion grant would be distributed to nurseries and childminders to help increase places ahead of the full rollout of funded childcare. 

Local authority allocations for the expansion grant will be confirmed before the end of February. Some of the largest areas could be provided with funding of up to £2.1m.

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