Bank of England hints economic pain felt by many to be a long, drawn-out affair

Published

2 years ago

August 3, 2023

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Higher for longer.

The Bank of England may have lifted interest rates by less than a lot of people had been expecting up until recently – up by a quarter percentage point rather than a half – but for those with mortgages, the most striking thing from the trove of analysis they’ve published today isn’t about today but about tomorrow.

Because there are heavy hints dropped throughout the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report that it expects borrowing costs to stay high for a lot longer than many had anticipated.

Only a few months ago financial markets were betting that the Bank Rate – the official borrowing level set at Threadneedle Street – would be down to 4% by 2024 and 3.7% by 2025. Far higher than the post-financial crisis period but a fall all the same.

Now, those same markets think rates will still be at 5.9% in 2024 and at 5% by 2025. And rather than challenging those assumptions, the Bank has come as close as possible to reinforcing them.

This institution doesn’t provide explicit guidance about where it’s expecting interest rates to go; it prefers to drop hints. And the hint in the minutes alongside the decision today was about as heavy as you could get.

“The [Monetary Policy Committee] would ensure that Bank Rate was sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.”

Higher for longer, in other words.

Why? Another clue is to be found elsewhere in the Bank’s forecasts today. It’s worth quoting at length: “Sharp increases in energy food and other import prices over the past two years have had second-round effects on domestic prices and wages.

“These second-round effects are likely to take longer to unwind than they did to emerge and the Monetary Policy Committee has placed weight in its recent forecasts on the risk that they might persist for longer.

“The committee now judges that some of this risk may have begun to crystallise.”

It fears, in other words, that the inflation cat is now out of the bag. And thus getting price rises to come down may involve considerably more work on its part than it previously anticipated. Higher for longer.

Which of course means pain for many households – especially those with mortgages and those renting (most landlords also have mortgages).

And unlike previous eras where most households were on floating rate mortgages and thus that pain was very quickly felt in their pockets, today that pain is being drip fed into the economy as two and five year fixed-rate mortgages gradually expire and are replaced with far more expensive monthly payments.

Again, that means the impact of these interest rate increases is going to be a long, drawn-out affair. And you can see the implications in the Bank’s economic forecast. The economy isn’t likely to face a recession, at least according to its central projection.

But it will essentially flatline – depressed by these higher rates – for three years, not showing meaningful growth until 2026.

It is a depressing prospect. Perhaps the best thing to hope for is that the Bank is wrong. This has happened before – indeed it’s already submitting to an independent inquiry into how it failed to foresee the recent spike in inflation, led by former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.

It’s not altogether implausible that they fail to foresee a more meaningful economic recovery.

UK

Lionesses praised after winning Women’s Euros – with bus parade confirmed this week

Published

7 hours ago

July 27, 2025

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Lionesses praised after winning Women's Euros - with bus parade confirmed this week

England fans across the country have heaped praise on the team after winning Euro 2025, with a bus parade celebration set for Tuesday.

Sarina Wiegman’s Lionesses took home their second Euros trophy in consecutive tournaments after beating Spain 3-1 on penalties in the final.

Chloe Kelly scored the winning spot-kick following two huge saves from goalkeeper Hannah Hampton, after Alessia Russo scored an equaliser to send the game to a shootout.

As it happened: England beat Spain on penalties to retain title

After England win, it was announced that an open-top bus parade will be held in London on Tuesday along The Mall, which will start at 12.10pm.

The celebrations will culminate in a stage ceremony at the Queen Victoria Memorial in front of Buckingham Palace at approximately 12.30pm

Fans can attend for free, and Sky News will broadcast it live.

‘You’ve made the nation proud’ – Starmer

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was among the millions congratulating the Lionesses, posting on social media to praise the champions

“What a team. What a game. What drama,” he said.

“You dug deep when it mattered most and you’ve made the nation proud. History makers.”

The roof almost came off the Manchester clubhouse where Ella Toone started her journey

Greg Milam

Chief North of England correspondent

@GregMilamSky

Nowhere was the roar for the Lionesses louder than in the Astley and Tyldesley Miners Welfare club on the outskirts of Manchester.

The club where a five-year-old Ella Toone started her journey to England stardom, like so many places across the country, hosted nail-biting, table-thumping and, ultimately, deafening watch parties.

The roof almost came off the clubhouse when Chloe Kelly’s winning penalty went in.

Red bucket hats emblazoned with Toone’s now-famous ‘Buzzing My Head Off’ catchphrase were thrown in the air.

“Absolutely ecstatic,” said Lorraine Warwick-Ellis, who runs the pathway development for women and girls at the club.

“I was very nervous, very worried about penalties but we did it in the end.”

The success of the Lionesses has driven a huge boom in the popularity of women’s and girls football in recent years. She hopes this win will have a similar effect.

“I hope it cements the girls who are already here, keeps them engaged, and I hope it brings more girls down who want to be footballers and see that it’s open for everybody.”

It had been a pretty sombre watch for much of the game after Spain took the lead – but it erupted into life after Alessia Russo’s equaliser.

The shootout was the usual emotional rollercoaster but young fans seem to have greater faith in the Lionesses.

Among the jubilant teenagers celebrating in the clubhouse were two who have followed Toone’s path to academies at professional clubs.

“It’s unbelievable, they’re amazing, Chloe Kelly, I just don’t know what to say about her,” said Natasha Greenhouse. “We knew if it went to penalties that they’d do it.”

Tamsin Gallagher said: “They’ve done it the hard way all the way through the Euros but we all believed in them. Come on England.”

The party in Manchester and around the country and only just begun.

Prince William and Princess Charlotte, who were in attendance at St Jakob-Park in Basel, added on social media: “What a game!

“Lionesses, you are the champions of Europe and we couldn’t be prouder of the whole team. Enjoy this moment England.”

King hails Lionesses… and calls for World Cup

In a post on the official Royal Family account on X, King Charles also sent his “most heartfelt congratulations on winning the Euros 2025” to the Lionesses.

“For more years than I care to remember, England fans have sung that famous chant ‘football’s coming home’,” he said.

“As you return home with the trophy you won at Wembley three years ago, it is a source of great pride that, through sporting skill and awesome teamwork, the Lionesses have made those words ring true.

“For this, you have my whole family’s warmest appreciation and admiration. More than that, though, you have shown through your example over past weeks that there are no setbacks so tough that defeat cannot be transformed into victory, even as the final whistle looms.”

The monarch ended his statement by saying “the next task is to bring home the World Cup in 2027 if you possibly can!”

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy added: “What an absolutely extraordinary achievement by our Lionesses – once again they have made history and united the country with pride and joy.”

Reform UK’s Nigel Farage said “well done” to the team and “what an absolutely fantastic watch,” while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said: “What an achievement. What a team!”

UK

Man suffers cardiac arrest onboard boat trying to reach UK

Published

1 day ago

July 27, 2025

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Man suffers cardiac arrest onboard boat trying to reach UK

A man has died after suffering cardiac arrest onboard a boat attempting to reach the UK.

The vessel turned back towards Equihen beach on the French coast yesterday morning.

A nurse tried to resuscitate the man but was unsuccessful.

French authorities have now launched an investigation into the circumstances.

A spokesperson for Doctors Without Borders, also known as MSF, has criticised authorities on both sides of the Channel.

Jacob Burns said: “Yet again we have a tragedy in the Channel, that is the consequence of the deadly, costly and ineffective security policies implemented by the UK and France.”

Later on Saturday, a lifeboat carried migrants who have made the voyage into the Port of Dover.

Photographs showed them huddled under blankets and orange life jackets on board.

Provisional statistics from the Home Office suggest almost 24,000 people have arrived on small boats in the UK so far this year.

Towns and cities across the UK have seen protests in recent days, primarily outside hotels believed to be housing asylum seekers.

UK

Women’s Euros final: The Lionesses face Spain tonight – and they’re seeking revenge

Published

1 day ago

July 27, 2025

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Women's Euros final: The Lionesses face Spain tonight - and they're seeking revenge

Here the Lionesses are again. Another final. Another showdown with Spain.

All of a sudden, what was once so anticipated and longed for can start to seem expected rather than extraordinary.

What happened to the great underachievers of world football? They are now consistently among the final two going for glory.

No one is taking that for granted.

Especially not Leah Williamson, with the chance to retain the European Championship trophy lifted three years ago at Wembley.

“The opportunity of tomorrow and what’s on offer is the best thing in football,” the England captain said. “I think we don’t necessarily carry the weight of it and how much it means to people, but we’re aware of it because it means the same to us.”

So often they were only watching other nations making finals.

England’s first was the men winning the 1966 World Cup.

England v Spain: All you need to know

Then, with the rebirth of women’s football after bans and neglect, it was the Lionesses’ turn to make it to the finals – in 1984 and 2009.

And the Three Lions had to wait until 2021 to make it to a final, losing to Italy on penalties at Wembley.

It kickstarted an incredible run of five successive years of finals for England senior teams – with another men’s Euros final defeat in 2024.

The Lionesses have led the way, bringing football home by defeating Germany in the Euro 2022 final at Wembley.

They just missed out on going one better when reaching a first Women’s World Cup final a year later.

Now, in Basel, comes the chance for revenge against Spain – even though no one in the England camp is saying that, publicly at least, in Switzerland.

Especially knowing how challenging a task it is coming up again against Aitana Bonmati and Alexia Putella – the recent winners of football’s biggest individual honours.

But this is Spain’s first Euros final.

And there is some fear from the world champions at England’s grit and resolve to produce comebacks late in the quarter-finals and semi-finals – with 19-year-old Michelle Agyemang’s goals integral to the fightbacks.

Spain captain Irene Paredes reflected yesterday on how the Lionesses can flip a result late on.

But she was also discussing how their World Cup win was tarnished by the on-pitch kiss that led to former Spanish federation president Luis Rubiales being convicted of a sexual assault on striker Jenni Hermoso.

It sparked a wider clamour in Spain for improved rights and respect for women.

“Since then [2023] we took big steps forward,” Paredes said.

“I think this idea is disappearing from society. I still believe we have to continue opening doors… we’re a reference for boys and girls in society, but we still have things to do.”

It is a reminder that while tonight is about collecting silverware, both England and Spain know that emerging as champions can drive further growth in women’s football back home.

Amid it all, they’ll try to savour just what reaching a final means and how rare they are – until recently for English and Spanish women.