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Ukraine is embroiled in a fight for its very survival as an independent state. Although Moscow is able to strike Ukrainian territory with impunity, the West will not allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike Russia across the border for fear of an escalation.

But is this limitation preventing Ukraine from striking a potentially decisive blow and therefore actually helping Russia?

At the start of the war, the West was nervous about providing “offensive” weapons to Ukraine due to Mr Putin’s regular sabre-rattling about the risks of escalation.

Members of the security services investigate the site of a damaged building following a reported drone attack in Moscow, Russia, July 24, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

However, the Russian military has failed to dominate Ukrainian forces, and now finds itself on the backfoot in the conflict.

The last thing the Kremlin needs now is for the conflict to escalate, as Russian military vulnerability would be further exposed.

And over the past 16 months, as Western confidence has increased in Ukraine’s ability to push back the Russian invaders, Western aid has expanded to include modern tanks, air defence systems, and long-range missiles.

Despite the Russian rhetoric, it is increasingly evident that the Kremlin has failed in its strategic ambitions, and Russia will need a long period of post-conflict recuperation before it considers any further expansionist ambitions.

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Ukraine has displayed incredible courage and tenacity in repelling the Russian occupation; however, the odds remain stacked against a Ukrainian battlefield victory.

A view shows a damaged building following a reported drone attack in Moscow, Russia, July 24, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Ukraine is the David to Russia’s Goliath and is having to mount a ground offensive without the benefit of air superiority. In addition, Russia has had time to prepare formidable, layered ground defences, and has a greater tolerance than Ukraine for an attritional battle.

Despite the critical nature of Ukraine’s current military offensive, the West continues to prohibit Ukraine using Western-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory for fear that this will be the final step to provoke the Russian bear.

Although Russia is a nuclear power and has consistently used this to intimidate the West to curtail their involvement, from an objective perspective Russia is extremely unlikely to resort to nuclear escalation unless Russia’s territorial integrity is compromised.

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Perhaps understandably, the West has not (to date) been prepared to commit combatants to this conflict as this would directly embroil the West in the war with Russia.

But by restricting how the weapons provided can be used, the West is directly limiting Ukraine’s offensive options at a crucial moment in the offensive.

Although Ukraine has mounted a series of drone attacks on targets across the border, including on the capital Moscow, President Zelenskyy will struggle to “take the war to Russia” without Western weapons.

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Why is this important? Russia’s centre of gravity. its main strength and thus vulnerability, is arguably Mr Putin’s support base. So if Ukraine is to prevail, it is vital that it finds a way to take the war to Russia, beyond the battlefields of Ukraine.

President Zelenskyy needs to undermine Mr Putin’s assertion that the war in Ukraine is simply a “special military operation” with limited implications for the Russian population.

Russian media consistently refers to Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil as “terrorist acts”, thus framing Ukraine as using unlawful violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political aims, rather than the acts of a nation that has been invaded by Russia and is fighting for its survival.

Read more:
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Putin is a student of history – what can that teach us about the possible outcomes to the Ukraine war?

A damaged high-rise building in Moscow
Drone attack in Moscow damages two buildings and injures one person
Image:
Drone attack in Moscow damages two buildings and injures one person

Ukraine has become embroiled in a costly war of attrition, which Western support was designed to avoid.

Battlefield success is usually associated with bold tactics, surprise, deception and momentum. Instead, Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival, but in a predictable, attritional and ponderous manner.

By restricting Ukraine’s ability to take the war to Russia, the west risks emboldening Mr Putin and tipping the balance of the war in Russia’s favour.

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What does Sudan execution video tell us?

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What does Sudan execution video tell us?

On 11 April, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its affiliates attacked Zamzam camp in North Darfur.

The RSF is a paramilitary organisation comprised of militias that used to be be aligned with Sudan’s government.

For exactly two years it has been been locked in a civil war with the government’s Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). Both sides have been accused of human rights abuses over the course of the conflict.

After the capture of Zamzam, the RSF claimed in a statement released on Telegram that the camp was being used as a barracks, accusing the SAF of using civilians as “human shields”.

It further claimed, “the Rapid Support Forces were able to secure civilians during the liberation operation and prevent them from being harmed”.

Satellite imagery and footage from the ground paints a darker picture, showing the execution of an unarmed man and widespread fires within the camp at the time of its capture.

Zamzam sits just to the south of Al Fashir, North Darfur’s capital city, which has been a key target of the RSF in recent months.

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Filming of an execution

Shortly after the RSF attack began on 11 April, a video began circulating on social media. It shows a group of gunmen standing over two unarmed men and a child.

One of the men squats in front of a gunman holding an assault rifle. The gunman shoots him at close range, killing him.

The child, less than a meter away, lies face down with his hands covering the back of his head.

A fighter films himself at the execution of an unarmed man.
Image:
A fighter films himself while another executes an unarmed man.

While the footage does not contain much contextual information, the person filming turns the camera to his face before showing a close-up view of the dead body behind him.

Sky News has geolocated a second video showing the same man, wearing the same clothing and equipment, at another location within the camp at the time of its capture.

The footage shows the fighter with a group of gunmen celebrating as they enter a compound in the south of the camp.

Gunfire can be heard, and smoke rises from nearby as the group cheer.

An RSF patch is visible on a fighter filmed by the man present at the execution.
Image:
An RSF patch is visible on a fighter filmed by the man present at the execution.

At one point, a uniformed fighter wearing an RSF patch can be seen, confirming that at least this individual is affiliated with the organisation.

Both videos appear to have been filmed within a short timeframe.

The fighter seen in both videos is wearing the same head covering, clothing and tactical gear. The pattern on his head covering is oriented identically in both, suggesting it has not been removed in the time between filming.

A fighter filmed at two seperate locations wearing the same head covering, clothing and tactical gear.
Image:
A fighter filmed at two seperate locations wearing the same head covering, clothing and tactical gear.

Widespread fires

Available footage and satellite images show the RSF’s capture of Zamzam was closely followed by fires being lit across the camp.

In one video, a man in an RSF uniform can be seen driving on the camp’s main road while thick smoke rises from nearby fires.

Data from FIRMS, a NASA project that uses satellite data to detect thermal anomalies, provides a wider view.

Following the arrival of the RSF on 11 April, fires were detected across the south and east of the camp.

FIRMS data showing thermal anomalies indicating fires following the RSF capture of Zamzam.
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FIRMS data showing thermal anomalies indicating fires following the RSF capture of Zamzam.

More fires were detected in the east and south on 12 April, with areas in the north of the camp being affected on the 13 April.

Satellite imagery showing buildings on fire in Zamzam. Pic: Maxar.
Image:
Satellite imagery showing buildings on fire in Zamzam. Pic: Maxar.

Satellite images form Maxar confirm buildings burned across the south of the camp on April 11, close to where fighters were seen.

On Tuesday, the African Union and European government’s including the UK called for an immediate cessation of the hostilities in which tens of thousands of people have been killed in the last two years.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Ukrainian forces ‘strike Russian brigade’ behind deadly missile attack on Sumy

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Ukrainian forces 'strike Russian brigade' behind deadly missile attack on Sumy

Ukraine’s military says it has struck the base of the Russian missile brigade behind Sunday’s devastating attack on Sumy.

A Russian assault on the city killed 35 people and injured at least 119. Children were among the dead and wounded.

The Ukrainian military has now said it has struck a base of “the 448th missile brigade of the Russian occupiers”.

In a statement on messaging app Telegram, it said the base was “hit [and] a secondary detonation of ammunition was recorded”.

“The results of the strike are being clarified,” it added.

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Aftermath of deadly Russian strike

Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously shared videos of the aftermath of Russia’s Palm Sunday attack, showing dead bodies in the middle of a street in Sumy.

The Ukrainian president said “only scoundrels can act like this” and called for “tough reaction from the world” in posts on social media.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
The assault killed 35 people. Pic: Reuters

Meanwhile, Ukraine‘s foreign ministry said one of the children injured was a baby girl born this year, adding “even newborns are targets for Russia’s crimes”.

NATO on Tuesday reaffirmed its “unwavering” support for Ukraine as the alliance’s secretary-general visited the country.

As he met with Mr Zelenskyy at a hospital in Odesa, Mark Rutte said: “I’m here today because I believe Ukraine’s people deserve real peace, real safety and security in their country, in their homes.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Odesa, Ukraine April 15, 2025. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
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NATO’s Mark Rutte with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Odesa, Ukraine. Pic: Reuters

Mr Rutte also said he and Mr Zelenskyy had discussed the Trump administration’s peace talks with both Russia and Ukraine.

“These discussions are not easy – not least in the wake of this horrific violence – but we all support President Trump’s push for peace,” he said.

Read more:
Russia jails four journalists
Trump blames Zelenskyy for war

His comment came after Mr Trump accused Ukraine of starting the war with Russia.

Rebutting this, Mr Rutte added: “Russia is the aggressor, Russia started this war. There’s no doubt.”

It also follows Russian and Ukrainian diplomats accusing each other of violating a tentative US-brokered deal to pause strikes on energy infrastructure.

“The Ukrainians have been attacking us from the very beginning, every passing day, maybe with two or three exceptions,” Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said, adding that Moscow would provide a list of Kyiv’s attacks from the past three weeks.

Andrii Sybiha, his Ukrainian counterpart, dismissed the claim saying on Saturday that Russia launched “almost 70 missiles, over 2,200 [exploding] drones, and over 6,000 guided aerial bombs at Ukraine, mostly at civilians” since agreeing to the limited pause on strikes.

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Prisons across France attacked ‘in response to crackdown on drug trafficking’

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Prisons across France attacked 'in response to crackdown on drug trafficking'

Several French prisons were attacked overnight in response to government efforts to clamp down on drug trafficking in the country, senior officials said.

Unknown assailants fired automatic weapons at a prison in the southern city of Toulon, while vehicles were burned outside other facilities across the country and staff were threatened.

France’s national anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office said on Tuesday that it had taken charge of the investigation, while the country’s DGSI national security investigation will also be involved.

French media reported that the prisons targeted were in or near cities including Toulon, Aix-En-Provence, Marseille, and the communes of Valence and Nimes.

Prisons were also targeted in the commune of Villepinte and the suburb of Nanterre near Paris, according to reports.

It is not immediately clear whether the attacks were co-ordinated, or who carried them out.

@SyndFoJustice
Image:
Damaged caused by an automatic weapon to the exterior of La Farlede Prison near Toulon. @SyndFoJustice

Pic: @SyndFoJustice
Image:
Damaged caused by an automatic weapon to the exterior of La Farlede Prison near Toulon. @SyndFoJustice

France’s Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, who has led efforts to toughen prison security and crack down on gangsters who run their empires from behind bars, said he would travel to Toulon.

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“Attempts have been made to intimidate staff in several prisons, ranging from burning vehicles to firing automatic weapons,” Mr Darmanin wrote on X.

“I am going to Toulon to support the officers concerned. The French Republic is facing up to the problem of drug trafficking and is taking measures that will massively disrupt the criminal networks.”

Meanwhile, the country’s Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said he had instructed local prefects, alongside the police and gendarmerie, to immediately step up the protection of staff and prisons.

Burnt cars at Villepinte prison parking lot
Pic: @SyndFoJustice
Image:
Burnt cars in the car park of the prison in Villepinte.
Pic: @SyndFoJustice

A ‘white tsunami’ of cocaine

Years of record South American cocaine imports to Europe have supercharged local drug markets, sparking a wave of drug violence across the continent.

Gangs in France have been able to expand from traditional power bases in cities like Marseille into smaller regional towns unaccustomed to drug violence.

The rise in gang crime is thought to have led to increased support for the far-right National Rally party and have helped drag French politics rightward.

Mr Darmanin, a former interior minister, and Mr Retailleau have prioritised tackling drug trafficking.

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Bruno Retailleau, left, and Gerald Darmanin, right, have prioritised tackling drug trafficking. Pic: AP
Image:
Bruno Retailleau, left, and Gerald Darmanin, right, have prioritised tackling drug trafficking. Pic: AP

In February, Mr Retailleau announced record cocaine seizures of 47 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to 23 tonnes in all of 2023.

Mr Retailleau said France had been hit by a “white tsunami” that had rewritten the rules of the criminal landscape.

Meanwhile, Mr Darmanin has proposed a series of measures to tighten prison security, including isolating the country’s top 100 kingpins.

Lawmakers are also close to approving a sweeping new anti-drug trafficking law that would create a new national organised crime prosecutors’ office and give greater investigative power to police investigating drug gangs.

French authorities scored a win against drug crime in February, when they recaptured Mohamed Amra, a French fugitive known as “The Fly.”

His escape as he was being transported from prison to a court hearing resulted in the deaths of two prison guards and was seized upon by right-wing politicians as evidence that France had lost its grip on drug crime.

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