Ukraine is embroiled in a fight for its very survival as an independent state. Although Moscow is able to strike Ukrainian territory with impunity, the West will not allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike Russia across the border for fear of an escalation.
But is this limitation preventing Ukraine from striking a potentially decisive blow and therefore actually helping Russia?
At the start of the war, the West was nervous about providing “offensive” weapons to Ukraine due to Mr Putin’s regular sabre-rattling about the risks of escalation.
The last thing the Kremlin needs now is for the conflict to escalate, as Russian military vulnerability would be further exposed.
And over the past 16 months, as Western confidence has increased in Ukraine’s ability to push back the Russian invaders, Western aid has expanded to include modern tanks, air defence systems, and long-range missiles.
Despite the Russian rhetoric, it is increasingly evident that the Kremlin has failed in its strategic ambitions, and Russia will need a long period of post-conflict recuperation before it considers any further expansionist ambitions.
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Ukraine has displayed incredible courage and tenacity in repelling the Russian occupation; however, the odds remain stacked against a Ukrainian battlefield victory.
Ukraine is the David to Russia’s Goliath and is having to mount a ground offensive without the benefit of air superiority. In addition, Russia has had time to prepare formidable, layered ground defences, and has a greater tolerance than Ukraine for an attritional battle.
Although Russia is a nuclear power and has consistently used this to intimidate the West to curtail their involvement, from an objective perspective Russia is extremely unlikely to resort to nuclear escalation unless Russia’s territorial integrity is compromised.
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Perhaps understandably, the West has not (to date) been prepared to commit combatants to this conflict as this would directly embroil the West in the war with Russia.
But by restricting how the weapons provided can be used, the West is directly limiting Ukraine’s offensive options at a crucial moment in the offensive.
Although Ukraine has mounted a series of drone attacks on targets across the border, including on the capital Moscow, President Zelenskyy will struggle to “take the war to Russia” without Western weapons.
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Why is this important? Russia’s centre of gravity. its main strength and thus vulnerability, is arguably Mr Putin’s support base. So if Ukraine is to prevail, it is vital that it finds a way to take the war to Russia, beyond the battlefields of Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy needs to undermine Mr Putin’s assertion that the war in Ukraine is simply a “special military operation” with limited implications for the Russian population.
Russian media consistently refers to Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil as “terrorist acts”, thus framing Ukraine as using unlawful violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political aims, rather than the acts of a nation that has been invaded by Russia and is fighting for its survival.
Image: Drone attack in Moscow damages two buildings and injures one person
Ukraine has become embroiled in a costly war of attrition, which Western support was designed to avoid.
Battlefield success is usually associated with bold tactics, surprise, deception and momentum. Instead, Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival, but in a predictable, attritional and ponderous manner.
By restricting Ukraine’s ability to take the war to Russia, the west risks emboldening Mr Putin and tipping the balance of the war in Russia’s favour.
China put on a show of military strength and diplomatic pulling power in Beijing this week that should worry us all.
At the heart of it was one all-powerful man.
Xi Jinping is emerging as the emperor of a rising China bent on reshaping the world in its image.
He wears the garb of his communist forebears, but he is much more than just another heir to Chairman Mao.
Xi increasingly has more in common with China’s imperial past.
He has disposed of rivals and term-limit rules, making him potentially ruler for life.
Xi believes it is China’s destiny to return to its rightful place as the centre of the world. A new world order dominated by China is approaching he believes, hastened by the Trump administration’s willingness to dismantle the current Pax Americana and western disarray over Ukraine.
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China has a right to assert itself more robustly on the world stage, of course, but it’s the manner of that assertion and the risks of collision with the West that should give cause for concern.
Xi has ruthlessly crushed dissent at home with quasi genocidal repression in Xinjiang, a cultural holocaust in Tibet and brutal suppression of human rights in Hong Kong.
Next in his sights is Taiwan. It is claimed by the Chinese communists as part of their One China project.
That opens up one fault line between Xi’s rising China and Western nations.
China’s more and more open support of Putin’s war in Ukraine is of course another.
Western impotence and failure to bring enough pressure on Russia to end the conflict has allowed it to metastasize into a much bigger one.
Image: The three autocrat amigos in Beijing on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
On one side in the East, authoritarian governments lining up to support Russia. And on the other, democratic countries supporting Ukraine.
This week’s jamboree of autocrats in Beijing seems to have tipped things more in their favour. Good news for regimes using Orwellian surveillance, censorship, and repression to control their people and keep a grip on power.
Bad news for the rest of us who prefer a future organised around democracy, freedom, and the rule of law.
The further we go, the rougher the terrain becomes, jolting the car as we drive along a mountain track strewn with rocks.
And then we round a corner and there is a sleeping dog, a circle of chairs and two women smiling and beckoning us to follow them.
This is Fatima and her mother-in-law, Fadda. They live in a makeshift camp perched on a rocky ledge.
Image: Fatima (left) and Fadda say they are afraid their homes could be set alight
Behind their tent is a cave, in which there are chickens and a bed. In front of it is the path where we now stand, and then a precipice that looks down upon a ravine.
They invite us into a tent to talk. Sweet tea is brought out, and so is the story of how their home was demolished, their car stolen, their peace destroyed and why they now have to hide their flock of sheep.
But before all that, Fatima takes us out and points at a ridge behind their camp.
We can see a small black structure, just visible against the dark rock. “That is where they are,” she says. “The settlers come down from there.”
Image: The family say settlers are constantly coming to their camp home to harass them
Every day, people come down to her home. Unwelcome visitors.
“We’d be baking bread, and they would come, lay out their mattresses and just sit there. When we told them to leave, they’d return with more settlers and an armed soldier.”
And the soldier, always, would be on the side of the settlers.
“At night we don’t sleep,” says Fadda, smiling through the pain.
“We stay awake waiting for the settlers. Four or five of them come in their cars each night, sometimes on motorcycles, right up to our doorstep to terrify the children.
“We sit through the night, afraid they’ll set fire to our homes and belongings, trying to force us to flee with our kids.”
We see videos, shared widely on social media, of Fadda confronting a young settler who has come to menace the family.
Image: Fadda confronted a young settler in a video shared on social media
He stands right in front of her, staring her straight in the eyes, trying to push her forward. Fadda responds by standing her ground, smiling gently at him.
“This happens every single day,” says Fatima. “If we didn’t stand up for ourselves, we would have left long ago. The problem is, they’re children.
“They send the kids down on purpose to provoke us, to push us off our land. That’s why we’ve had to build this resilience.”
Image: Fadda says the settlers come ‘right up to our doorstep to terrify the children’
Their tale of suffering is desperate. They tell me the family used to live in a house, which was demolished by the Israel military.
An hour later we drive past its remains – a huge pile of twisted metal and rubble. Their car has been taken so they have to walk to distant shops under the baking sun.
Mobile phones have been stolen along with computers and animals. Their flock of sheep is now kept in another place, hidden from sight.
‘This is our land’
“The situation has become really bad,” says Fatima. “Not just for us, but for the whole West Bank.”
And yet the family is determined to stay. “This is our land,” say both women, almost in unison. The brutal truth is also that they have nowhere else to go.
The West Bank is dotted with Israeli settlements, from top to bottom, some large and long-established, with thousands of residents and a sprawling infrastructure; some small and very new, with just a few caravans parked on a hilltop.
All of them are based on the idea of extending the reach of the Israeli state by placing its people all over the West Bank, or at least turning a blind eye to them moving there.
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The fact that these settlements are, by widespread consent, illegal under international law has not stopped them from proliferating. Quite the opposite.
Not only are they growing in number and size, but the Israeli government is lending them ever more support and legitimacy.
Image: Bezalel Smotrich wants Israel to annex more than 82% of the West Bank. Pic: Reuters
Now, the far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has declared that it’s time for Israel to annex more than 82% of the West Bank.
His logic can be summed up like this: we’re not safe with neighbours like this, and according to the Bible, it should be our land anyway.
Not everyone will agree, and perhaps most outside Israel will strongly disagree, but Smotrich is, as always, unapologetic and unabashed.
“Beyond our Biblical, historical and moral right to the entire land of Israel, the political and security role of sovereignty is to ensure that a Palestinian Arab terror state is never established in our land,” he said.
“Enemies should be fought, not provided with comfortable lives.”
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A woman who will appear as Miss Palestine in a global beauty pageant has said she wants to represent her culture and “show the world that we are human beings”.
Nadeen Ayoub told Sky News she wants to “speak up about Palestine and to carry the voices of those that are unheard”.
Speaking on The World With Yalda Hakim, she said she became Miss Palestine in 2022 and will now head to Thailand in November to compete against dozens of others at Miss Universe.
“I don’t want people to be thinking when they hear the word Palestine, to just be thinking of suffering and pain,” said Ms Ayoub.
“So just like we hear the word ‘Italy’ and we think of beautiful things, like the Amalfi Coast and pizza and pasta.
“When we think of other nations, we think of their heritage and their culture and their identity, and we see them as human beings.
“I want the same thing for Palestine to show the world that we are human beings, and that is simply my message.”
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Ms Ayoub was partly raised in the US and Canada and now reportedly splits her time between Dubai, Ramallah, and Amman.
She was supposed to compete in Miss Universe following success as Miss Palestine at another pageant in 2022.
However, she told Sky News she delayed her entry until now after the Hamas attack on Israel sparked the Gaza war.
The 27-year-old has been criticised by some for calling the dire situation there a “genocide” during an interview last month. Israel denies all accusations of genocide.
Among her critics is the runner-up in the Miss Israel contest, who questioned Ms Ayoub’s inclusion in November’s pageant and urged her to speak out against Hamas.
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“Miss Universe stands for unity, peace and co-existence – and if she stands for all of those things then let’s have it,” Adela Cojab Moadeb told the NY Post.
“I would welcome an advocate who stands against extremism and stands for the right of all people to exist.”
Ms Ayoub declined to comment in her Sky News interview, stressing her message is to “show the world that we Palestinians have an identity of creativity, of talents, of heritage, of culture”.