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The UK economy grew slightly in the three months to June, according to official estimates.

Gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2% in the second quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. In June alone it rose by 0.5%.

It comes after a rate of 0.1% was recorded in the first quarter, the lowest amount possible to still be classed as growth.

Experts said the economy had bounced back in June following a dip the previous month, when an extra bank holiday was held to celebrate the King’s coronation.

Darren Morgan, the ONS’s director of economic statistics, said: “Manufacturing saw a particularly strong month with both cars and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry seeing particularly buoyant growth.

“Services also had a strong month with publishing and car sales and legal services all doing well, though this was partially offset by falls in health, which was hit by further strike action.”

Read more: Cost of living – latest: Price of car insurance hits record high

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Sky’s business correspondent Paul Kelso discusses the figures

He added: “Construction also grew strongly, as did pubs and restaurants, with both aided by the hot weather.”

However four days of strikes by junior doctors weighed on GDP in June.

The Bank of England has forecast that the UK will likely avoid recession in 2023 but suggested the economy will effectively flatline for the next few years.

It recently hiked interest rates for the 14th time in a row to 5.25% as it attempts to bring down inflation.

The rate of inflation fell by a bigger-than-expected drop in June but still remains high at 7.9%.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt told Sky News last week that the UK, along with Europe, the US, Canada and Japan, were “all in a low growth trap that we need to get out of”.

He added: “What you’ll see from me in the autumn statement is a plan that shows how we break out of that low growth trap and make ourselves into one of the most entrepreneurial economies in the world.”

‘Strong foundations’

The new data puts the UK on a good course to avoid recession this year, which is defined as two quarters in a row when GDP shrinks.

However, there are still concerns about the longer-term outlook for the economy. A report by thinktank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned earlier this week there was a “60% risk” of a recession in 2024.

It said the UK was also set to experience five years of “lost” economic growth, while “elevated housing, energy and food costs” would likely continue into next year.

Commenting on the latest figures, Mr Hunt said: “The actions we’re taking to fight inflation are starting to take effect, which means we’re laying the strong foundations needed to grow the economy.

“The Bank of England are now forecasting that we will avoid recession, and if we stick to our plan to help people into work and boost business investment, the IMF have said over the longer-term we will grow faster than Germany, France and Italy.”

‘Economy isn’t working’

Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the figures showed that “growth in the economy is still on the floor”.

She added: “13 years of economic mismanagement under the Conservatives has left Britain worse off and trapped in a low growth, high tax cycle.”

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation also said the modest GDP growth “means little to the 7.3 million low-income families who right now are going without essentials like heating, eating and adequate clothing.”

The charity’s chief economist Alfie Stirling added: “For too many people, and too many places, the economy simply isn’t working.”

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said: “The chancellor is asleep at the wheel while our economy is going nowhere.

“Stagnant growth puts jobs at risk and holds down pay and conditions for those who remain in work.”

ONS publishes data every month on GDP, which aims to measure the sum total of everything produced in the economy.

However, the indicator has faced criticism for failing to include some parts of the economy, such as the contribution of unpaid carers.

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Romanian grooming gang boss offered £1,500 to leave UK while awaiting trial for 10 rapes

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Romanian grooming gang boss offered £1,500 to leave UK while awaiting trial for 10 rapes

The ringleader of a Romanian grooming gang was offered £1,500 by the Home Office to be deported while he was in prison awaiting trial for 10 rapes, a Sky News investigation has found.

Mircea Marian Cumpanasoiu, 38, led a network which raped, drugged and exploited vulnerable local women in Dundee.

But Sky News can exclusively reveal that in summer 2024, while in custody at HMP Perth awaiting trial for serial sex offences, officials handed him a “voluntary return” form under a government scheme paying foreign nationals to leave Britain.

The department later decided not to remove him because of the upcoming court proceedings.

Immigration status renewed during trial

In another twist, just months later – as he stood in a High Court dock facing 10 rape charges – Sky News has discovered Cumpanasoiu’s immigration status, which was due to expire, was automatically renewed under the EU settlement scheme.

Cumpanasoiu was later handed a 24-year extended sentence, with 20 years in jail and four on licence, for sexual and trafficking offences.

Cumpanasoiu winking to the camera during a video filmed near a brothel in Dundee. Pic: Crown Office
Image:
Cumpanasoiu winking to the camera during a video filmed near a brothel in Dundee. Pic: Crown Office

Prosecutors described him as a “winking, smirking pimp” who once filmed a victim climbing a tree to escape his anger when she “failed” to make enough money in Dundee brothels.

Following days of questions from Sky News, officials have confirmed his settled status has now been revoked.

The inside story

Sky sources say Home Office workers personally met Cumpanasoiu at Perth prison while he was on remand in August 2024.

Sources say he “expressed a desire to return home” and was handed documents to sign agreeing to a cash-assisted return, but the plan was later blocked.

But in another twist, on 2 December 2024, halfway through the grooming gang trial, his EU settled status was renewed.

A source close to proceedings told Sky News the revelations “smack of incompetence”.

The Home Office does not dispute this version of events.

Romanian grooming gang clockwise from top left: Remus Stan, Alexandra Bugonea, Mircea Marian Cumpanasoiu, Cristian Urlateanu and Catalin Dobre. Pics: Police Scotland
Image:
Romanian grooming gang clockwise from top left: Remus Stan, Alexandra Bugonea, Mircea Marian Cumpanasoiu, Cristian Urlateanu and Catalin Dobre. Pics: Police Scotland

Rape Crisis Scotland said the case raises concerns.

A spokesperson for the charity said: “This was a horrific case, which involved numerous vulnerable survivors who showed tremendous strength and courage by coming forward to seek justice for what had happened to them.

“The severity of this case has, quite rightly, resulted in significant prison sentences for the perpetrators. However, it is not clear why the Home Office tried to intervene before a trial had begun, and any verdict had been reached.

“Survivors must have faith in the criminal justice process and its ability to hold perpetrators accountable for their crimes.

“This incident raises questions about what the Home Office’s intentions were, and why it was able to insert itself into active criminal proceedings in the first place.”

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What is the EU Settlement Scheme?

The EU Settlement Scheme was set up after Brexit to allow citizens from the EU, and their family members, to continue living and working in the UK.

People with “settled status” can stay in the UK indefinitely.

Those with “pre-settled status”, such as Cumpanasoiu, must reapply after five years.

Since September 2023, the Home Office has introduced automatic extensions of pre-settled status which means renewals happen electronically unless officials intervene.

There are questions now about whether this automation can lead to offenders such as Cumpanasoiu being overlooked.

Home Office ‘had power to intervene’

Jen Ang, a human rights lawyer and leading expert on migrants’ rights, told Sky News the vast majority of those processed under the EU system are law-abiding citizens.

But Ms Ang, a professor at the University of Glasgow, reveals authorities did have the power to intervene in this case.

Professor Jen Ang
Image:
Professor Jen Ang

She said: “In this case the Home Office did have the power and the right to stop the automatic renewal. At any point where it is possible that someone is about to become unsuitable for settled status, the Home Office could have intervened.

“The optics of this in the context of such a high-profile and horrific crime are not great.”

‘The public are entitled to be concerned’

Thomas Leonard Ross KC, a leading Scottish defence lawyer, described the decision-making as “flawed”.

He said: “I mean automatically renewing pre-settled status in 99.9% of occasions can be done without any risk to the public. But clearly this particular individual has been assessed to be an extremely dangerous person.

“The public are perfectly entitled to be concerned. A decision of this type made automatically without any assessment as to the risk that he might pose is clearly a flawed decision.”

A Home Office spokesman said: “This man will serve his sentence for the abhorrent crimes he committed and will be considered for deportation at the earliest opportunity.

“A deportation order will automatically trigger the revocation of an individual’s right to be in the UK, including pre-settled status.”

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Half of novelists fear AI will replace them entirely, survey finds

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Half of novelists fear AI will replace them entirely, survey finds

The novel has survived the industrial revolution, radio, television, and the internet. Now it’s facing artificial intelligence – and novelists are worried.

Half (51%) fear that they will be replaced by AI entirely, according to a new survey, even though for the most part they don’t use the technology themselves.

More immediately, 85% say they think their future income will be negatively impacted by AI, and 39% claim their finances have already taken a hit.

Tracy Chevalier, the bestselling author of Girl With A Pearl Earring and The Glassmaker, shares that concern.

“I worry that a book industry driven mainly by profit will be tempted to use AI more and more to generate books,” she said in response to the survey.

“If it is cheaper to produce novels using AI (no advance or royalties to pay to authors, quicker production, retainment of copyright), publishers will almost inevitably choose to publish them.

“And if they are priced cheaper than ‘human made’ books, readers are likely to buy them, the way we buy machine-made jumpers rather than the more expensive hand-knitted ones.”

Chevalier, author of the book Girl With A Pearl Earring, with the painting of the same name. Pic: AP
Image:
Chevalier, author of the book Girl With A Pearl Earring, with the painting of the same name. Pic: AP

Why authors are so worried

The University of Cambridge’s Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy asked 258 published novelists and 74 industry insiders how AI is viewed and used in the world of British fiction.

Alongside existential fears about the wholesale replacement of the novel, many authors reported a loss of income from AI, which they attributed to “competition from AI-generated books and the loss of jobs which provide supplementary streams of income, such as copywriting”.

Some respondents reported finding “rip-off AI-generated imitations” of their own books, as well books “written under their name which they haven’t produced”.

Last year, the Authors Guild warned that “the growing access to AI is driving a new surge of low-quality sham ‘books’ on Amazon”, which has limited the number of publications per day on its Kindle self-publishing platform to combat the influx of AI-generated books.

The median income for a novelist is currently £7,000 and many make ends meet by doing related work, such as audiobook narration, copywriting or ghost-writing.

Read more: The author embracing AI to help write novels

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Could the AI bubble burst?

These tasks, authors feared, were already being supplanted by AI, although little evidence was provided for this claim, which was not possible to verify independently.

Copyright was also a big concern, with 59% of novelists reporting that they knew their work had been used to train AI models.

Of these, 99% said they did not give permission and 100% said they were not remunerated for this use.

Earlier this year, AI firm Anthropic agreed to pay authors $1.5bn (£1.2bn) to settle a lawsuit which claimed the company stole their work.

The judge in the US court case ruled that Anthropic had downloaded more than seven million digital copies of books it “knew had been pirated” and ordered the firm to pay authors compensation.

However, the judge sided with Anthropic over the question of copyright, saying that the AI model was doing something akin to when a human reads a book to inspire new work, rather than simply copying.

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Most novelists – 67% – never used it for creative work, although a few said they found it very useful for speeding up drafting or editing.

One case study featured in the report is Lizbeth Crawford, a novelist in multiple genres, including fantasy and romance. She describes working with AI as a writing partner, using it to spot plot holes and trim adjectives.

“Lizbeth used to write about one novel per year, but now she can do three per year, and her target is five,” notes the author of the report, Dr Clementine Collett.

Is there a role for government?

Despite this, the report’s foreword urges the government to slow down the spread of AI by strengthening copyright law to protect authors and other creatives.

The government has proposed making an exception to UK copyright law for “text and data mining”, which might make authors and other copyright holders opt out to stop their work being used to train AI models.

“That approach prioritises access to data for the world’s technology companies at the cost to the UK’s own creative industries,” writes Professor Gina Neff, executive director of the Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy.

“It is both bad economics and a betrayal of the very cultural assets of British soft power.”

A government spokesperson said: “Throughout this process we have, and always will, put the interests of the UK’s citizens and businesses first.

“We’ve always been clear on the need to work with both the creative industries and AI sector to drive AI innovation and ensure robust protections for creators.

“We are bringing together both British and global companies, alongside voices beyond the AI and creative sectors, to ensure we can capture the broadest possible range of expert views as we consider next steps.”

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Deadline day for Andrew to respond to Epstein inquiry – but it’s hard to imagine why he’d talk

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Deadline day for Andrew to respond to Epstein inquiry - but it's hard to imagine why he'd talk

They’ve said they are offering him an opportunity to tell them everything, once and for all.

But as we hit the two-week deadline set by the US Congress committee investigating Jeffrey Epstein for a reply from Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, will he agree to their request to open up about the paedophile financier?

The letter sent by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform said members wanted to talk to him because of the widely reported allegations that have been made against him, which he denies, and because of his relationship with Epstein and what he may have seen.

The committee is looking into Epstein’s crimes and his wider sex trafficking network. Andrew was given until today, 20 November, to respond.

Legally he isn’t obliged to talk to them, and to be honest it’s hard to imagine why he would.

The only time he has spoken at length about the allegations against him and his relationship with Epstein was that Newsnight interview in 2019, and we all know how much of a disaster that was.

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Releasing the Epstein files: How we got here

Yes, this could be an opportunity for him to publicly apologise for keeping up his links with Epstein, which he has never done before, or show some sympathy towards Epstein’s victims, even as he vehemently denies the allegations against him.

But while there is the moral argument that he should tell the committee everything he knows, it could also raise more uncomfortable questions for him, and that could feel like too much of a risk for Andrew and the wider Royal Family.

However, even saying no won’t draw all this to a close. There are other outstanding loose ends.

The Metropolitan Police still have to tell us if they intend to take any further action after they said they were looking into claims Andrew had asked one of his officers to dig up dirt on his accuser, Virginia Giuffre.

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The new Epstein files: The key takeaways

There could also still be a debate in parliament about the Andrew problem.

The Liberal Democrats have said they want to use their opposition debating time to bring the issue to the floor of the House of Commons, while other MPs on the Public Accounts Committee have signalled their intention to look into Andrew’s finances and housing arrangements.

And then there are the wider Epstein files over in America, and what information they may hold.

From developments this week, it seems we are edging ever closer to seeing those released.

All of this may mean Andrew in other ways is forced to say more than he wants to, even without opening up to the Congress committee.

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