The U.S. government is deploying trillions of dollars of stimulus money into infrastructure investments, boosting the prospects for a number of industrials in the Club portfolio. On the back of Covid’s impact on the economy, President Joe Biden enacted a slew of domestic funding bills in a bid to help the nation recover from labor constraints and financial losses due to the pandemic. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, commonly known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, was signed in late 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act, also referred to as IRA, became law in August 2022. Since being enacted, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act was slated to send $1 trillion over the span of five years to states and local governments for upgrading outdated roads, bridges and transit systems — projects that use the products and services provided buy our leading industrial names Caterpillar (CAT), whose stock has soared since June and trades around record highs. Looking ahead, Caterpillar also stands to benefit from a second wave of government spending when federal dollars from the $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act, designed to fund manufacturing and infrastructure investments, are released into the pipeline. Club names Honeywell (HON) and Emerson Electric (EMR) might also grab some of the IRA’s funding for green energy. Emerson has been on a roll since June. As for Honeywell, it mounted a comeback from the spring and into the summer but then fell on hard times after the company issued disappointing financial results late last month. Wall Street cheered the influx of funding. Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner said that the increased spending forced the bank to make a “sizable upward revision” to its estimates for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). “The economy in the first half of the year is growing much stronger than we had anticipated, putting a more comfortable cushion under our long-held soft landing view,” she wrote in a July note. As a result , Morgan Stanley estimates GDP growth for the first half of 2023 at 1.9% — nearly four times its previous forecast — and bumped up forecasts for real GDP growth next year at 1.4%. “The narrative behind the numbers tells the story of industrial strength in the U.S.,” Zentner added. Crediting the enormous amount of government stimulus, BlackRock’s Larry Fink said the U.S. will not tip into a recession in 2023. “Think about how many jobs infrastructure creates. Think about the demand for commodities as we build infrastructure,” the chief of the world’s largest asset management firm previously told CNBC . CAT YTD mountain Caterpillar YTD performance Caterpillar can thank the influx of stimulus for its blowout second-quarter results on Aug. 1, beating analysts’ estimates for revenue and earnings and sparking a much-deserved rally that day of nearly 9% to an all-time closing high of $288.65 per share. Construction sales surged 19% to $7.15 billion for the quarter, “driven by the impact from changes in dealer inventories and higher sales of equipment to end users,” Caterpillar said. Gains were linked to a boost in demand for construction equipment because of the “once in a generation” Infrastructure bill. In last week’s conference after the earnings release, CEO Jim Umpleby said the firm expects “continued growth in nonresidential construction in North America due to the positive impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects.” “I remain convinced that federal largesse will fall into the lap of Club holding Caterpillar, and it’s wrong to ignore what will be a gusher into American-made earth-moving equipment and steel,” Jim Cramer wrote in an Investing Club column back in April. Caterpillar is the biggest maker of earth-moving equipment in the U.S. Shortly after Caterpillar’s Q2 earnings release, we boosted our CAT price target to $300 per share from $285. We kept our 2-rating at the time in deference to its surge. On Aug. 7, we took some profit s but still believe in the stock. HON YTD mountain Honeywell YTD performance Before the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill was enacted, Honeywell said in July 2021 that it would likely lead to “long-term economic growth ,” a dynamic playing out two years later as the government money begins to make its way to companies that make the industrial products, heavy equipment and machinery needed for these large-scale projects. While its Q2 results were not as robust as Caterpillar’s quarter, Honeywell did provide several reasons for optimism including a strong overall segment profit margin that helped the bottom line outperform and robust cash flow performance. Nevertheless, HON shares sank more than 5.5% on earnings day July 27, and they have only advanced three sesions out of the past nine. Honeywell’s crack at really benefitting from government spending may come when green energy programs funded by Inflation Reduction Act kick into gear. The stimulus, in part, provides production and investment tax credits for renewable projects. In a July note, Bank of America listed Honeywell as one of the stocks that stand to gain from the IRA because of the company’s relation to renewable power systems. EMR YTD mountain Emerson Electric YTD performance In a March note, Morgan Stanley analyst Josh Pokrzywinski upgraded industrial automation provider Emerson Electric to buy from hold, citing a growth in sales between 4% and 5% annually, in line with the industrials economy. Since the IRA gives companies new incentives for hydrogen use, the analysts say Emerson’s business is likely to benefit from that as well. The company is a leading provider of hydrogen solutions and automation. After being derailed by uncertainty around the friendly, then hostile, then friendly National Instruments (NATI) deal, Emerson shares have been making up ground. The National Instruments transaction is expected to close in the first half of next year. Last week’s release of strong fiscal third-quarter results and a guidance raise further boosted Emerson’s stock. Sales at the company’s two operating units beat estimates its fiscal third quarter: Intelligent Devices rose by nearly 11% to $3.95 billion and Software & Control increased nearly 22% to $983 million. The results are another example of how Emerson’s efforts to re-orient its portfolio around automation have helped its customers with their own energy transition initiatives in the areas of the aforementioned hydrogen space as well as liquified natural gas (LNG), nuclear, carbon capture, and renewables. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CAT, EMR, HON. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Construction workers work on repairing an intersection on November 22, 2022 in Houston, Texas. The White House’s infrastructure plan estimates to set aside approximately $35 billion for Texas projects.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
The U.S. government is deploying trillions of dollars of stimulus money into infrastructure investments, boosting the prospects for a number of industrials in the Club portfolio.
Senate Republicans are threatening to hike taxes on clean energy projects and abruptly phase out credits that have supported the industry’s expansion in the latest version of President Donald Trump‘s big spending bill.
The measures, if enacted, would jeopardize hundreds of thousands of construction jobs, hurt the electric grid, and potentially raise electricity prices for consumers, trade groups warn.
The Senate GOP released a draft of the massive domestic spending bill over the weekend that imposes a new tax on renewable energy projects if they source components from foreign entities of concern, which basically means China. The bill also phases out the two most important tax credits for wind and solar power projects that enter service after 2027.
Republicans are racing to pass Trump’s domestic spending legislation by a self-imposed Friday deadline. The Senate is voting Monday on amendments to the latest version of the bill.
The tax on wind and solar projects surprised the renewable energy industry and feels punitive, said John Hensley, senior vice president for market analysis at the American Clean Power Association. It would increase the industry’s burden by an estimated $4 billion to $7 billion, he said.
“At the end of the day, it’s a new tax in a package that is designed to reduce the tax burden of companies across the American economy,” Hensley said. The tax hits any wind and solar project that enters service after 2027 and exceeds certain thresholds for how many components are sourced from China.
This combined with the abrupt elimination of the investment tax credit and electricity production tax credit after 2027 threatens to eliminate 300 gigawatts of wind and solar projects over the next 10 years, which is equivalent to about $450 billion worth of infrastructure investment, Hensley said.
“It is going to take a huge chunk of the development pipeline and either eliminate it completely or certainly push it down the road,” Hensley said. This will increase electricity prices for consumers and potentially strain the electric grid, he said.
The construction industry has warned that nearly 2 million jobs in the building trades are at risk if the energy tax credits are terminated and other measures in budget bill are implemented. Those credits have supported a boom in clean power installations and clean technology manufacturing.
“If enacted, this stands to be the biggest job-killing bill in the history of this country,” said Sean McGarvey, president of North America’s Building Trades Unions, in a statement. “Simply put, it is the equivalent of terminating more than 1,000 Keystone XL pipeline projects.”
The Senate legislation is moving toward a “worst case outcome for solar and wind,” Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco told clients in a Sunday note.
Trump’s former advisor Elon Musk slammed the Senate legislation over the weekend.
“The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country,” The Tesla CEO posted on X. “Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”
Is Nissan raising the red flag? Nissan is cutting about 15% of its workforce and is now asking suppliers for more time to make payments.
Nissan starts job cuts, asks supplier to delay payments
As part of its recovery plan, Nissan announced in May that it plans to cut 20,000 jobs, or around 15% of its global workforce. It’s also closing several factories to free up cash and reduce costs.
Nissan said it will begin talks with employees at its Sunderland plant in the UK this week about voluntary retirement opportunities. The company is aiming to lay off around 250 workers.
The Sunderland plant is the largest employer in the city with around 6,000 workers and is critical piece to Nissan’s comeback. Nissan will build its next-gen electric vehicles at the facility, including the new LEAF, Juke, and Qashqai.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
According to several emails and company documents (via Reuters), Nissan is also working with its suppliers to for more time to make payments.
The new Nissan LEAF (Source: Nissan)
“They could choose to be paid immediately or opt for a later payment,” Nissan said. The company explained in a statement to Reuters that it had incentivized some of its suppliers in Europe and the UK to accept more flexible payment terms, at no extra cost.
The emails show that the move would free up cash for the first quarter (April to June), similar to its request before the end of the financial year.
Nissan N7 electric sedan (Source: Dongfeng Nissan)
One employee said in an email to co-workers that Nissan was asking suppliers “again” to delay payments. The emails, viewed by Reuters, were exchanged between Nissan workers in Europe and the United Kingdom.
Nissan is taking immediate action as part of its recovery plan, aiming to turn things around, the company said in a statement.
The new Nissan Micra EV (Source: Nissan)
“While we are taking these actions, we aim for sufficient liquidity to weather the costs of the turnaround actions and redeem bond maturities,” the company said.
Nissan didn’t comment on the internal discussions, but the emails did reveal it gave suppliers two options. They could either delay payments at a higher interest rate, or HSBC would make the payment, and Nissan would repay the bank with interest.
Nissan’s upcoming lineup for the US, including the new LEAF EV and “Adventure Focused” SUV (Source: Nissan)
The company had 2.2 trillion yen ($15.2 billion) in cash and equivalents at the end of March, but it has around 700 billion yen ($4.9 billion) in debt that’s due later this year.
As part of Re:Nissan, the Japanese automaker’s recovery plan, Nissan looks to cut costs by 250 billion yen. By fiscal year 2026, it plans to return to profitability.
Electrek’s Take
With an aging vehicle lineup and a wave of new low-cost rivals from China, like BYD, Nissan is quickly falling behind.
Nissan is launching several new electric and hybrid vehicles over the next few years, including the next-gen LEAF, which is expected to help boost sales.
In China, the world’s largest EV market, Nissan’s first dedicated electric sedan, the N7, is off to a hot start with over 20,000 orders in 50 days.
The N7 will play a role in Nissan’s recovery efforts as it plans to export it to overseas markets. It will be one of nine new energy vehicles, including EVs and PHEVs, that Nissan plans to launch in China.
Can Nissan turn things around? Or will it continue falling behind the pack? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
Elon Musk said just a few weeks ago that betting on Tesla delivering its promised Robotaxi in June is a “money-making opportunity,” and yet, those who listened to him just lost big.
A fan of Musk lost $50,000 betting on Tesla Robotaxi.
With the rise in prediction markets, you can bet on virtually everything these days.
Sites like Polymarket have about a dozen prediction markets related to Tesla, where anyone can bet on events such as Tesla delivering its robotaxi service.
Less than two weeks ago, the market gave Tesla only a 14% chance of launching the service, and Musk called it a “money-making opportunity.”
At the time, less than $500,000 was traded on this market, but Musk made it way more popular.
Now, over $7 million has been traded on this market, and while Tesla claims to have launched its Robotaxi service on June 22nd, the market currently gives Tesla less than 1% chance today, with less than a day left in June.
Each prediction market has clear “resolution” rules and Musk evidently didn’t read them before suggesting there was money to be made betting “yes”:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly launches a fully driverless taxi service by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
Any service that allows a member of the general public to summon and ride in a Tesla vehicle operating without any human—onboard or remote—actively controlling the vehicle will count. A human may be present in the vehicle or monitoring remotely for emergency intervention, but they must not be physically positioned to take control (for example, no safety driver in the driver’s seat) and must not actively steer, brake, accelerate, or otherwise drive the car under normal operation.
A program that is restricted to Tesla employees, invite-only testers, closed-beta participants, factory self-delivery features, or the mere release of Full Self-Driving software for private owner-drivers will not qualify. Regulatory permits or approvals, press demonstrations, and prototype unveilings without live public ridership likewise will not count toward resolution.
This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
There are a few things in the resolution that disqualify what Tesla launched on June 22nd. First off, there’s a human inside the vehicle ready to take control with their finger on a kill switch. We have already seen interventions from the in-car Tesla supervisor, who are still very much necessary.
Secondly, the resolution requires a launch that is not restricted to an invite-only basis, which is currently the case.
The level of remote operations could also prove challenging to confirm, and it is part of the resolution.
Electrek found someone who lost $50,000 following Musk’s “money-making opportunity”:
Someone else has lost $28,000 and is now betting another $27,000 that Tesla will achieve this by the end of July.
Currently, Polymarket‘s odds only put a 21% chance of Tesla delivering on the service based on the previously mentioned resolution before August:
With Polymarket, users are not really “betting” on an outcome, but they are trying to beat the current odds by buying shares in “yes” or “no”, which they can sell to other users before the end of the timeline.
Electrek’s Take
It’s quite amusing that Musk was so confident people would believe in his Robotaxi that he didn’t bother to investigate what other people think an actual robotaxi service would entail, like in the Polymarket resolution.
Historically speaking, you are way better off betting against whatever timeline Musk claims about self-driving. He has been consistently wrong about it for a decade now.
Polymarket even has a market about Tesla launching unsupervised self-driving in California this year. I threw some money in that one because California has much stricter regulations when it comes to self-driving, and it requires a lot of testing before being deployed, as described in the resolution.
I doubt Tesla can go through that this year, but it’s not impossible.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.