Adam Boulton: 75 MPs to step down as ‘change election’ looms. Who’s going to replace them?
The next general election is only 17 months away at most. It is already seen as a “change election” – meaning that, on the basis of opinion polls and recent political contests, the party in power is likely to switch.
Conventional wisdom is that the Conservatives will most likely be out after 14 years continuously in power.
That outcome is of course in the lap of the electorate and cannot be taken for granted.
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But it is the basis on which individual MPs make calculations about their futures.
Before any seats change hands, we can already say that there will be at least 75 new faces in the 2024/25 parliament.
That’s because 75 current members have already announced that they are not standing – and more than 50 of them were elected as Conservatives. A further 14 Labour MPs are stepping down, with seven from the SNP.
The overall turnover of MPs will be much larger anyway if is a change election.
The pollster Frank Luntz recently warned Tory MPs that any of them with a majority less that 15,000 is “at risk”. There are around 180 in that category – half the current parliamentary party.
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Next election ‘not a done deal’
Now is the time when the main parties are choosing the candidates to fight the coming election in the seats they hold, the seats they regard as winnable and the seats viewed as not worth wasting further resources on.
The types of candidate being chosen, especially in their safe or target seats, tells us a lot about what a party will be like in government or in opposition after the next election.
Since becoming Labour leader in 2019, Sir Keir Starmer has devoted more energy to exerting iron discipline on his party after the Jeremy Corbyn years than to developing radical new policies.
True to form, Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in choosing its prospective parliamentary candidate – more than halfway through – with more than 100 of an expected 200 of so new PPCs in place.
Of course, not all of them are first timers. Re-treads include the former Cabinet minister Douglas Alexander, who is hoping to win back East Lothian from the SNP, Anna Turley fighting to regain her Red Wall seat of Redcar and former Wolverhampton MP Emma Reynolds, who is now standing in Wycombe.
These three ex-MPs embody the middle-aged, middle-of-the-road cut of the Labour candidates being selected. Only about one in 20 of them are below the age of 30.
Newly elected MP Keir Mather with Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner
In spite of the recent by-election victory by the new Baby of the House, Labour’s Keir Mather, parliament is not proving welcoming for younger members. Those standing down include two young MPs who had been picked out as rising stars.
The SNP’s Mhairi Black calls Westminster “toxic”, Bishop Auckland Tory Deheena Davison finds it “unsociable”.
The Labour leadership are ruthlessly weeding out left-wing candidates.
Suspension from the party is the most brutal method. Jeremy Corbyn is no longer a member of Labour so he cannot stand as one of their candidates at the next election. His dwindling band of supporters in the Commons have been carefully biting their tongues to avoid joining him in the reject bin.
Before constituency parties get to vote on their candidate, a panel made up of trusted members of Labour’s National Executive (NEC) and local supporters draws up a “long list”.
As serving Mayor Jamie Driscoll found out to his cost in a similar process to select a candidate for the new mayor of the North East, this is how strong candidates not liked by the leadership can be excluded.
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MPs who have said they are standing down
Mish Rahman, a current member of the NEC supported by Momentum, is a typical example of the sort of PPC that Sir Keir does not want. He was blocked in the highly win-backable seat of Wolverhampton West in spite of being backed by five trade unions. He commented he was not surprised since none of his fellow “Bernie Grant Leadership” alumni have been selected. That programme, in memory of the black far-left Tottenham MP, was set up to promote candidates of his ilk.
Labour’s stand out PPC selection this time round typifies the change of mood. Charlie Falconer had to be sent to the House of Lords to serve in the Blair government. He refused to take his children out of private school and no constituency would have him.
Now the product of that public school education, his son Hamish Falconer – a well-regarded diplomat in his own right – has been selected as Labour candidate in marginal Lincoln.
Sir Keir Starmer and his closest aides – including Morgan MacSweeney, Matthew Faulding, Carol Linforth, David Evans and Marianna McFadden – are right to be careful.
Their opponents will target candidates with “extremist” skeletons in their closet.
Nadine Dorries has not yet stood down as promised to trigger the by-election in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency.
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Dorries ‘can stay in the jungle’
The Daily Mail has already exposed Labour’s clean-cut candidate Alistair Strathern for taking part in a Greenpeace protest at the Home Office, dressed as a zombie.
A few places demand a high-profile and colourful candidate. The retiring Green MP Caroline Lucas has made Brighton Pavilion one of those constituencies. The Greens have already chosen Sian Berry, one of their other best-known politicians, to defend it for them.
The comedian Eddie Izzard, who has failed to be selected elsewhere numerous times, has local connections and is fighting hard for the Labour nomination.
The number of LGBT+ MPs now stands at a record 61 and is set to remain strong. Women and ethnic minorities are doing loess well.
Tory strategists at the centre wish they had the same grip on candidate selection as Labour, but they don’t. Just about the leadership’s only success has been blocking any candidacy by the former MEP and the serially disloyal Boris Johnson supporter David Campbell Bannerman.
Rishi Sunak and newly elected Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge
After the turmoil of five prime ministers there is no centre, respected by all, to exert control.
PPCs are chosen by constituency associations whose members are the people who voted for Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and did not vote for Rishi Sunak.
The Tory Party factions are fighting out their differences in selections, constituency by constituency.
Unlike Labour they are choosing candidates who appeal to themselves, with little regard to who might attract floating voters in the centre ground.
Tory activists have already picked out two PPCs who they expect will still be battling for the soul of the party in a decades time.
In the One Nation corner stands Rupert Harrison, the PPC for Bicester, an old Etonian and former close aide to chancellor George Osborne. He looks like what Barbie’s Ken would look like were he to be a middle-aged Tory candidate.
The Nativist Brexiteer Corner is occupied by the cerebral and sometimes bearded Nick Timothy, who has taken over in Matt Hancock’s old constituency in Suffolk.
Nick Timothy
Male, middle-aged, middle class, there is a similarity in the profile, if not the politics, of the candidates being chosen by the two main parties.
Both of them now place a premium on the candidate having a local connection.
It is much harder for bright politically ambitious young people to shop around for a seat – even though some of them in the past have proved of prime ministerial calibre – like Churchill or Blair or Johnson.
The ConservativeHome website reports that in 12 winnable target seats, eight of the PPCs were local councillors, two more had local connections and only two were women.
Those following the selections most closely, including the journalist Michael Crick on his @tomorrowsMPs X (formerly Twitter) page and the Professor of Politics Tim Bale, believe that insistence on the local factor is seriously diluting the quality of the people who are becoming MPs.
Whether or not we are heading into a change election, we know already that there will be lots of new faces. They won’t look much different to those they are replacing and it is a fond hope whether they will be any better.
Pete Aitken says his daughter Hannah would still be alive if she hadn’t been sent to a series of “failing” mental health hospitals, which made her increasingly unwell.
Warning: This article contains references to suicide
Hannah Aitken was 22 when she took her own life two years ago. Her death has left her family in turmoil.
“I think about Hannah every hour of every day, more than once, every hour, every day,” her dad Pete said.
Throughout the family home are photos, candles and purple flowers, Hannah’s favourite colour. Her parents have planted a tree in the garden where her beloved trampoline once stood.
Pete Aitken, whose daughter Hannah died by suicide in 2023
Hannah had autism and ADHD and struggled with her mental health. In 2017, she was sent to Huntercombe Hospital-Stafford. It was in special measures when she arrived.
Pete says the unit made Hannah worse. “I don’t believe that they gave her any care or treatment there that helped her.”
Over a period of four years, Hannah was sent to six different mental health hospitals. The majority were publicly funded and privately run.
Three were rated by the care regulator, the CQC, either ‘inadequate or ‘requires improvement’. Two of the units were closed down while Hannah was a patient.
“That to me is an indication of how bad the system is, and how bad the care that she received was,” Pete said.
“All they could do was… like prison keep her safe, but not give her any quality of life. They took all that away from her.”
‘I don’t believe that they gave her any care’, Pete says
Over the years, Sky News has investigated failings within the mental health system, including the Huntercombe Group, which ran a number of hospitals.
Hannah emailed Sky News in 2023 following one of our reports to share her story.
She wrote: “I will never forget what I was put through… I put up with so much and it’s only now I realised it wasn’t right, for years I blamed myself.”
Hannah never fully recovered from her hospital admissions. In September 2023, she took a fatal dose of poison, which she had bought online.
Her family are now campaigning for a change in the law governing poisons.
Family photos of Hannah Aitken, who died in 2023
Her dad said: “One gram of this poison is lethal. We found out from Hannah’s inquest she ordered a kilogramme of 99.6% purity.
“There is a legitimate use for it, but we understand that the concentration for that is something like less than 1%.”
Hannah’s death once again raises questions about why the NHS outsources mental health services to failing private providers.
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An NHS England spokesperson said: “Our thoughts are with Hannah’s family at this incredibly difficult time.
“The NHS has repeatedly made clear that all services must provide safe, high-quality care, irrespective of whether they are NHS or independent sector-led, and we continue to work closely with the CQC to monitor, identify and take appropriate action where it is needed.”
Elli Investments Group, the owners of The Huntercombe Group until 2021, has said they regret that these hospitals, which were independently managed, failed to meet expectations
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK
UK
Prince William plans ‘ruthless approach’ towards Prince Andrew, as lawyer for Jeffrey Epstein’s victims predicts further leaks
Prince William is planning to take a “ruthless approach” towards Prince Andrew when he is king, according to reports, as a US lawyer predicts the scandal engulfing the royal “is not going away” and more stories will “leak out”.
The Sunday Times suggests William will ban his uncle from “all aspects of royal life” because of the ongoing risk to the Royal Family‘s reputation after a series of damaging revelations.
It comes amid reports that Andrew tried to get the Metropolitan Police to dig up dirt for a smear campaign against his sexual assault accuser Virginia Giuffre back in 2011.
Gloria Allred, who represents many of the victims of the late convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, believes he will not be “let off the hook”.
“This is not going away. Even though he’s no longer a duke, and Sarah Ferguson is no longer a duchess, it’s not going away,” the US lawyer told Sky News.
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Andrew relinquished his Duke of York title and remaining honours on Friday evening, after a series of fresh stories linked to the late Ms Giuffre, who was trafficked by Epstein. She died in April, aged 41, with her family saying said she “lost her life to suicide”.
She alleged she was forced to have sex with Andrew when she was 17, allegations he has always denied.
“The fact that Virginia is now deceased – may she rest in peace – doesn’t mean it’s over for Prince Andrew. It’s not over. More will come to leak out,” Ms Allred added.
Ms Giuffre’s posthumous memoirs, which are released on Tuesday, claim Andrew insisted she sign a one-year gag order – to prevent details of her allegations tarnishing the late Queen’s platinum jubilee.
And earlier this week, emails emerged showing that Andrew remained in contact with Epstein, several months after he said he had stopped contact.
The former duke paid to settle a civil sexual assault case with Ms Giuffre in 2022, despite insisting he had never met her.
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Windsor’s take on Prince Andrew
Reports of attempted smear campaign
It has now been reported that Andrew passed Ms Giuffre’s date of birth and social security number to his taxpayer-funded bodyguard in 2011, asking him to investigate.
He is said to have emailed the late Queen’s then-deputy press secretary and told him of his request to his protection officer, and also suggested Ms Giuffre had a criminal record, according to the Mail on Sunday.
Sky News has contacted the Met for comment. A spokesperson for the force told the PA news agency: “We are aware of media reporting and are looking into the claims made.”
The prince’s alleged attempt, on which the Met officer is not said to have acted, came in 2011, hours before the publication of the famous photograph of Andrew with his arm around Ms Giuffre in London, which he has claimed was doctored.
The Mail on Sunday said it obtained the email from disclosures held by the US congress.
“It would also seem she has a criminal record in the states,” Andrew said to the former press secretary, according to one email published by the newspaper. “I have given her DoB and social security number for investigation with XXX the on duty PPO.”
Ms Giuffre’s family responded, saying she did not have a criminal record, the newspaper said.
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William and Camilla’s influential roles
In her book, titled Nobody’s Girl: A Memoir Of Surviving Abuse And Fighting For Justice, she wrote, according to The Telegraph: “As devastating as this interview was for Prince Andrew, for my legal team it was like an injection of jet fuel.
“Its contents would not only help us build an ironclad case against the prince but also open the door to potentially subpoenaing his ex-wife, Sarah Ferguson, and their daughters, Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie.”
The Duke of York and the Prince of Wales at the Duchess of Kent’s funeral last month. Pic: PA
Andrew, who remains a prince and continues to live in the Crown Estate property Royal Lodge, said on Friday that the “continued accusations about me distract from the work of His Majesty and the Royal Family”.
He insisted he was putting his “family and country first” and would stop using “my title or the honours which have been conferred upon me”.
Ms Allred told Sky News she felt Andrew’s statement on Friday, describing the scandal as a “distraction”, was an “insult” to Epstein’s victims.
“What it’s saying [the statement] is it’s continued bad PR for the monarchy,” she said.
“All right, I’m happy about this small consequence that he has to pay… no longer a duke, but look, he’s living a privileged life while many victims are still suffering from the harm that was done by many people involved with Jeffrey Epstein.”
UK
Prince Andrew insisted on ‘gag order’ to stop allegations spoiling Queen’s Platinum Jubilee, memoir claims
Prince Andrew insisted his accuser, Virginia Giuffre, sign a one-year gag order – to prevent details of her allegations tarnishing the late Queen’s platinum jubilee, her memoirs have claimed.
Andrew relinquished his Duke of York title and remaining honours on Friday evening.
It came after discussions with King Charles, in consultation with the Prince of Wales, both of whom wanted to bring an end to the long-lasting scandal.
But, according to The Telegraph, Ms Giuffre’s book, which is due out on Tuesday, is focusing further attention on the sexual assault allegations and the prince’s friendship with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, which led to the royal’s downfall.
She tells how Andrew’s “disastrous” Newsnight interview with Emily Maitlis was like an “injection of jet fuel” for her legal team, and it raised the possibility of “subpoenaing” his ex-wife Sarah Ferguson, and daughters Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie and drawing them into the legal case.
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Prince Andrew’s ’embarrassed’ Royals ‘for years’
The Telegraph also reports Ms Giuffre’s claims that she got “more out of” Andrew than a reported £12m payout and $2m (around £1.4m) donation to her charity because she had “an acknowledgement that I and many other women had been victimised and a tacit pledge to never deny it again”.
The former duke paid to settle a civil sexual assault case with Ms Giuffre in 2022, despite insisting he had never met her.
Ms Giuffre alleged she was forced to have sex with the prince when she was 17, after being trafficked by Epstein. Andrew continues to vehemently deny her allegations.
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Prince Andrew: A timeline of events
Queen Elizabeth II was celebrating her platinum jubilee in 2022 – the first British monarch to reach the milestone – as the civil case against her son was gathering pace.
It was settled nine days after she reached the 70th anniversary of her accession.
According to the Telegraph, Ms Giuffre, who died in April, reveals in her book: “I agreed to a one-year gag order, which seemed important to the prince because it ensured that his mother’s platinum jubilee would not be tarnished any more than it already had been.”
Parades, processions, concerts and street parties were held across the UK in celebration of the Platinum Jubilee. Pic: PA
In January 2022, a US judge ruled the civil case against Andrew could go ahead, and the Queen went on to strip him of his honorary military roles, with the prince also giving up his HRH style.
‘Devastating’ interview
His 2019 Newsnight interview, which he hoped would clear his name, backfired when he said he “did not regret” his friendship with convicted paedophile Epstein, who trafficked Ms Giuffre.
Prince Andrew and Virginia Giuffre (then Roberts) in 2001 – a picture the prince claimed had been doctored. Pic: Shutterstock
Andrew also said he had “no recollection” of ever meeting Ms Giuffre and added he could not have had sex with her in March 2001 because he was at Pizza Express with his daughter Beatrice on the day in question.
Ms Giuffre, whose book is called Nobody’s Girl: A Memoir of Surviving Abuse and Fighting for Justice, wrote, according to The Telegraph: “As devastating as this interview was for Prince Andrew, for my legal team it was like an injection of jet fuel.
“Its contents would not only help us build an ironclad case against the prince but also open the door to potentially subpoenaing his ex-wife, Sarah Ferguson, and their daughters, Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie.”
‘Amazed he was stupid enough’
She also told how Andrew had “stonewalled” her legal team for months before settlement discussions began moving very quickly when his deposition was scheduled for March 2022.
Ms Giuffre also wrote she was “amazed” that a member of the royal family would be “stupid enough” to appear in public with the convicted paedophile, after a photo of the pair walking in New York emerged.
Andrew, who remains a prince and continues to live in the Crown Estate property Royal Lodge, said on Friday the “continued accusations about me distract from the work of His Majesty and the royal family”.
He insisted he was putting his “family and country first” and would stop using “my title or the honours which have been conferred upon me”.
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