Adam Boulton: 75 MPs to step down as ‘change election’ looms. Who’s going to replace them?
The next general election is only 17 months away at most. It is already seen as a “change election” – meaning that, on the basis of opinion polls and recent political contests, the party in power is likely to switch.
Conventional wisdom is that the Conservatives will most likely be out after 14 years continuously in power.
That outcome is of course in the lap of the electorate and cannot be taken for granted.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘ULEZ is why we lost in Uxbridge’
But it is the basis on which individual MPs make calculations about their futures.
Before any seats change hands, we can already say that there will be at least 75 new faces in the 2024/25 parliament.
That’s because 75 current members have already announced that they are not standing – and more than 50 of them were elected as Conservatives. A further 14 Labour MPs are stepping down, with seven from the SNP.
The overall turnover of MPs will be much larger anyway if is a change election.
The pollster Frank Luntz recently warned Tory MPs that any of them with a majority less that 15,000 is “at risk”. There are around 180 in that category – half the current parliamentary party.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Next election ‘not a done deal’
Now is the time when the main parties are choosing the candidates to fight the coming election in the seats they hold, the seats they regard as winnable and the seats viewed as not worth wasting further resources on.
The types of candidate being chosen, especially in their safe or target seats, tells us a lot about what a party will be like in government or in opposition after the next election.
Since becoming Labour leader in 2019, Sir Keir Starmer has devoted more energy to exerting iron discipline on his party after the Jeremy Corbyn years than to developing radical new policies.
True to form, Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in choosing its prospective parliamentary candidate – more than halfway through – with more than 100 of an expected 200 of so new PPCs in place.
Of course, not all of them are first timers. Re-treads include the former Cabinet minister Douglas Alexander, who is hoping to win back East Lothian from the SNP, Anna Turley fighting to regain her Red Wall seat of Redcar and former Wolverhampton MP Emma Reynolds, who is now standing in Wycombe.
These three ex-MPs embody the middle-aged, middle-of-the-road cut of the Labour candidates being selected. Only about one in 20 of them are below the age of 30.
Newly elected MP Keir Mather with Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner
In spite of the recent by-election victory by the new Baby of the House, Labour’s Keir Mather, parliament is not proving welcoming for younger members. Those standing down include two young MPs who had been picked out as rising stars.
The SNP’s Mhairi Black calls Westminster “toxic”, Bishop Auckland Tory Deheena Davison finds it “unsociable”.
The Labour leadership are ruthlessly weeding out left-wing candidates.
Suspension from the party is the most brutal method. Jeremy Corbyn is no longer a member of Labour so he cannot stand as one of their candidates at the next election. His dwindling band of supporters in the Commons have been carefully biting their tongues to avoid joining him in the reject bin.
Before constituency parties get to vote on their candidate, a panel made up of trusted members of Labour’s National Executive (NEC) and local supporters draws up a “long list”.
As serving Mayor Jamie Driscoll found out to his cost in a similar process to select a candidate for the new mayor of the North East, this is how strong candidates not liked by the leadership can be excluded.
Read more:
Are MPs getting younger?
MPs who have said they are standing down
Mish Rahman, a current member of the NEC supported by Momentum, is a typical example of the sort of PPC that Sir Keir does not want. He was blocked in the highly win-backable seat of Wolverhampton West in spite of being backed by five trade unions. He commented he was not surprised since none of his fellow “Bernie Grant Leadership” alumni have been selected. That programme, in memory of the black far-left Tottenham MP, was set up to promote candidates of his ilk.
Labour’s stand out PPC selection this time round typifies the change of mood. Charlie Falconer had to be sent to the House of Lords to serve in the Blair government. He refused to take his children out of private school and no constituency would have him.
Now the product of that public school education, his son Hamish Falconer – a well-regarded diplomat in his own right – has been selected as Labour candidate in marginal Lincoln.
Sir Keir Starmer and his closest aides – including Morgan MacSweeney, Matthew Faulding, Carol Linforth, David Evans and Marianna McFadden – are right to be careful.
Their opponents will target candidates with “extremist” skeletons in their closet.
Nadine Dorries has not yet stood down as promised to trigger the by-election in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Dorries ‘can stay in the jungle’
The Daily Mail has already exposed Labour’s clean-cut candidate Alistair Strathern for taking part in a Greenpeace protest at the Home Office, dressed as a zombie.
A few places demand a high-profile and colourful candidate. The retiring Green MP Caroline Lucas has made Brighton Pavilion one of those constituencies. The Greens have already chosen Sian Berry, one of their other best-known politicians, to defend it for them.
The comedian Eddie Izzard, who has failed to be selected elsewhere numerous times, has local connections and is fighting hard for the Labour nomination.
The number of LGBT+ MPs now stands at a record 61 and is set to remain strong. Women and ethnic minorities are doing loess well.
Tory strategists at the centre wish they had the same grip on candidate selection as Labour, but they don’t. Just about the leadership’s only success has been blocking any candidacy by the former MEP and the serially disloyal Boris Johnson supporter David Campbell Bannerman.
Rishi Sunak and newly elected Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge
After the turmoil of five prime ministers there is no centre, respected by all, to exert control.
PPCs are chosen by constituency associations whose members are the people who voted for Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and did not vote for Rishi Sunak.
The Tory Party factions are fighting out their differences in selections, constituency by constituency.
Unlike Labour they are choosing candidates who appeal to themselves, with little regard to who might attract floating voters in the centre ground.
Tory activists have already picked out two PPCs who they expect will still be battling for the soul of the party in a decades time.
In the One Nation corner stands Rupert Harrison, the PPC for Bicester, an old Etonian and former close aide to chancellor George Osborne. He looks like what Barbie’s Ken would look like were he to be a middle-aged Tory candidate.
The Nativist Brexiteer Corner is occupied by the cerebral and sometimes bearded Nick Timothy, who has taken over in Matt Hancock’s old constituency in Suffolk.
Nick Timothy
Male, middle-aged, middle class, there is a similarity in the profile, if not the politics, of the candidates being chosen by the two main parties.
Both of them now place a premium on the candidate having a local connection.
It is much harder for bright politically ambitious young people to shop around for a seat – even though some of them in the past have proved of prime ministerial calibre – like Churchill or Blair or Johnson.
The ConservativeHome website reports that in 12 winnable target seats, eight of the PPCs were local councillors, two more had local connections and only two were women.
Those following the selections most closely, including the journalist Michael Crick on his @tomorrowsMPs X (formerly Twitter) page and the Professor of Politics Tim Bale, believe that insistence on the local factor is seriously diluting the quality of the people who are becoming MPs.
Whether or not we are heading into a change election, we know already that there will be lots of new faces. They won’t look much different to those they are replacing and it is a fond hope whether they will be any better.
UK
Transport Secretary Louise Haigh admits pleading guilty to offence in connection with misleading police in 2014
Transport Secretary Louise Haigh has admitted pleading guilty to an offence connected with misleading the police while a parliamentary candidate in 2014, Sky News can reveal.
Sky News understands Ms Haigh appeared at Camberwell Green Magistrates’ Court six months before the 2015 general election, after making a false report to officers that her mobile phone had been stolen.
Ms Haigh said she was “mugged while on a night out” in 2013. She then reported the incident to the police and gave officers a list of items she believed had been taken – including a work mobile phone.
In a statement to Sky News, the transport secretary said she discovered “some time later” that “the mobile in question had not been taken”.
She added: “In the interim, I had been issued with another work phone.”
The transport secretary said: “The original work device being switched on triggered police attention and I was asked to come in for questioning.
“My solicitor advised me not to comment during that interview and I regret following that advice.
“The police referred the matter to the CPS and I appeared before Southwark magistrates.”
Ms Haigh continued: “Under the advice of my solicitor I pleaded guilty – despite the fact this was a genuine mistake from which I did not make any gain.
“The magistrates accepted all of these arguments and gave me the lowest possible outcome (a discharge) available.”
It’s understood her conviction is now classified as ‘spent’.
However, three separate sources claimed she made the false report to benefit personally, with two of the sources alleging she wanted a more modern work handset that was being rolled out to her colleagues at the time.
The now cabinet minister had been working as a public policy manager at Aviva, but two sources said she lost her job at the insurance firm because of the incident.
Her government profile states she left this role in 2015 before becoming the MP for Sheffield Heeley at that year’s general election.
Sky News understands the incident was disclosed in full when Ms Haigh was appointed to the shadow cabinet.
In the statement given to Sky News, the transport secretary said: “I was a young woman and the experience was terrifying.”
Conservative Party Chairman Nigel Huddleston told Sky News the revelations are “extremely concerning”.
He added: “Keir Starmer has serious questions to answer regarding what he knew and when about the person he appointed as transport secretary admitting to having misled the police.”
Before entering politics, the transport secretary was a special constable in the Metropolitan Police – serving between 2009 and 2011 in the South London Borough of Lambeth, close to where she was convicted several years later.
Louise Haigh was a special constable from 2009-2011. Pic: www.louisehaigh.org.uk
She was appointed shadow policing minister by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 and frequently drew on her experience in the Met when challenging the Tory government on the rising demands on officers.
As transport secretary, Ms Haigh appoints members of the board that oversees the British Transport Police.
In 2019 she said that Boris Johnson had “deceived the police” and committed a “serious breach of trust” over claims he politicised serving officers during a speech in West Yorkshire.
Sir Keir Starmer promoted the Sheffield MP to shadow Northern Ireland secretary in 2020 before moving her to shadow transport secretary in 2021.
In this brief she has been an outspoken critic of the mass sacking of 800 workers by P&O Ferries in 2022.
In October, while transport secretary, she accused P&O of being a “rogue operator” and called for a boycott of its services.
The comments caused the firm’s Dubai-based owner to review a planned £1bn UK port investment – something that was re-confirmed after ministers held urgent talks with the company.
Louise Haigh has been the Member of Parliament for Sheffield Heeley since 2015
But she was publicly rebuked by Sir Keir who said her opinions were “not the view of the government”.
With connections to former Downing Street chief of staff Sue Gray, there has been speculation her cabinet role could be under threat in a future reshuffle.
Ms Gray’s son, Labour MP Liam Conlon, is Ms Haigh’s parliamentary private secretary and acts as her “eyes and ears” in parliament, while another of her former employees also worked for the former chief of staff before she was sacked after losing a power struggle within Number 10.
As transport secretary, Ms Haigh was one of a handful of cabinet ministers who complained to the Treasury about impending cuts in the budget.
She is considered to be one of the more left-wing members of the cabinet and has vowed to “rip up the roots of Thatcherism” with her plans for rail and bus reform.
In 2015, Ms Haigh was one of a number of Labour MPs to nominate Mr Corbyn for leader – a decision she later said she regretted.
UK
MasterChef’s Gregg Wallace steps down as Kirsty Wark among 13 who claim he made inappropriate sexual jokes
MasterChef host Gregg Wallace has stepped down over allegations he made a series of inappropriate sexual comments on a range of programmes over 17 years.
Broadcaster Kirsty Wark is among 13 people who have made claims, with Wallace being investigated by MasterChef’s production company Banijay UK.
In an interview with the BBC, the Newsnight presenter, who was a celebrity contestant on MasterChef in 2011, claimed Wallace used “sexualised language”.
“There were two occasions in particular where he used sexualised language in front of a number of people and it wasn’t as if it was anyone engaged with this,” Wark said.
“It was completely one-way traffic. I think people were uncomfortable and something that I really didn’t expect to happen.”
Sky News has contacted Wallace’s representative for comment.
Kirsty Wark. File pic: PA
‘Fully cooperating’
Banijay UK said the complaints were made to the BBC this week by “individuals in relation to historical allegations of misconduct while working with Gregg Wallace on one of our shows”.
The company said the 60-year-old, who has been a co-presenter and judge of the popular cooking show since 2005, was “committed to fully cooperating throughout the process”.
“Whilst these complainants have not raised the allegations directly with our show producers or parent company Banijay UK, we feel that it is appropriate to conduct an immediate, external review to fully and impartially investigate,” the company said.
“While this review is under way, Gregg Wallace will be stepping away from his role on MasterChef and is committed to fully co-operating throughout the process.
“Banijay UK’s duty of care to staff is always a priority and our expectations regarding behaviour are made clear to both cast and crew on all productions, with multiple ways of raising concerns, including anonymously, clearly promoted on set.
“Whilst these are historical allegations, incidences brought to our attention where these expectations are not met, are thoroughly investigated and addressed appropriately.”
A BBC spokesman said: “We take any issues that are raised with us seriously and we have robust processes in place to deal with them.
“We are always clear that any behaviour which falls below the standards expected by the BBC will not be tolerated.
“Where an individual is contracted directly by an external production company we share any complaints or concerns with that company and we will always support them when addressing them.”
Previous investigation
Last month, Wallace responded to reports that a previous BBC review had found he could continue working at the corporation following reports of an alleged incident in 2018 when he appeared on Impossible Celebrities.
Wallace said those claims had been investigated “promptly” at the time and said he had not said “anything sexual” while appearing on the game show more than half a decade ago.
In an Instagram post following an article in The Sun newspaper, he wrote: “The story that’s hitting the newspapers was investigated promptly when it happened six years ago by the BBC.
“And the outcome of that was that I hadn’t said anything sexual. I’ll need to repeat this again. I didn’t say anything sexual.”
Read more from Sky News:
Davina McCall feeling ‘stronger’ after brain tumour surgery
Robbie Williams says people from the 90s shouldn’t be shamed
Alongside MasterChef, Wallace presented Inside The Factory for BBC Two from 2015.
Wallace and Anne-Marie Sterpini in 2014. Pic: PA
Wallace has featured on various BBC shows over the years, including Saturday Kitchen, Eat Well For Less, Supermarket Secrets, Celebrity MasterChef and MasterChef: The Professionals, as well as being a Strictly Come Dancing contestant in 2014.
He was made an MBE for services to food and charity last year.
Recorded episodes of MasterChef: The Professionals featuring Wallace will be transmitted as planned, the PA news agency understands.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports8 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway