The GOP Primary Is a Field of Broken Dreams

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2 years ago

August 18, 2023

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People near me at the Iowa State Fair were frantic. Do you see him yet? they panted. Do you think hell come out into the crowd to talk? When the presence of Secret Service officers made it clear that former President Donald Trump would appear at the Steer N Stein restaurant on the Grand Concourse, fairgoers formed a line whose end was out of sight.

Not all of them could squeeze into the restaurant, so they filled the street outside, one giant blob of eager, sweating Iowans. When the former president finally appeared, the scrum was so dense that they could barely make out his silhouette through the restaurants open side. You know, the other candidates came here, and they had like six people, Trumps giddy voice said through the speakers above us. The audience responded with hoots and cheers.

David Axelrod: The indictment is stunning. Will Trump supporters care?

One of the few rules of American politics to have withstood the weirdness of these past tumultuous years is that anyone who wants to be president of the United States must endure both the many splendors and the equally many ritual humiliations of the Iowa State Fair. It is an essential audition, at least for the GOP. (The Democratic Party has recently shuffled the order of its primary season, demoting the Iowa caucus from its first-in-the-nation status.)

If a Republican candidate, drenched in sweat and stuffed with fried butter, can pique the interest of Iowas choosy voters, then that candidate has a real shot in the caucuses and, perhaps, the White House. Sometimes, a long-shot outsider can work the crowds and gain an unexpected edge, as Rick Santorum did in 2012, and Ted Cruz did in 2016.

So the fair is a place to charm and be charmed. Early on in the weekend, it seemed to be working its magic.

Hes really very engaging, Shirley Burgess, from Des Moines, said of Mike Pence. I thought he delivers a much clearer message in person than what Im getting from him on TV. The former vice president had just wrapped one of several Fair-Side Chats hosted by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds. This was a new feature at the fair, at which the governor asks the candidates such hard-hitting questions as Whats your favorite walkout song?

The night before, Pence had been heckled by a man who asked how he was doing after Tucker Carlson ruined your career. Another said, Im glad they didnt hang you!

But on Friday morning, Pence drew a respectful crowd for his conversation with Reynolds at J.R.s Southpork Ranch. Attendees asked him polite questions, and half a dozen people personally thanked him for his integrity when Trump was trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Pence had company, however. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy also attracted crowds at the Pork Ranch and at the Des Moines Registers Soapbox venue. Most of the undecided Iowans who attended told me that theyd supported Trump in 2016 and in 2020. These voters appreciated his service, they said, but after eight years of idiotic rants on social media, baseless but relentless assertions of election fraud, and a string of criminal indictments, they were hankering for some new energy. You know, a leader without so much baggage, they told me; someone more classy.

Everything out of his mouth is like, Shut up, Donald, Charles Dunlap, a two-time Trump voter from Johnston, Iowa, told me. He was eager to hear from Ramaswamy and Haley, people he believed would institute similar policies to Trumpsjust without the drama.

But the intimate enchantment of the fairthe promise of thoughtful, measured considerationdissipated around 1 p.m. Saturday, when the former president arrived. What very quickly became clear was that the Trump-exhausted, change-minded Iowans Id met that morning were in the minority. Most folks? They still love Trump.

The former president skipped possible speaking slots at the Soapbox and with Reynolds (because of his strange beef with the governor), but showed up to mingle with his people. They packed into every fair establishment where the president might conceivably speak. Because his event wasnt on any official schedule, everyone was kept guessing. Parts of the fairground came to a standstill. People who just wanted to slurp lemonade and admire the prize-winning steers were annoyed. Why did we have to come on the day that all the politicians are here? a man pushing a stroller through the throng asked his wife. (Almost every Iowan, for the record, has at one point uttered the phrase.)

Given his commanding lead in the GOP primary polling, its not so shocking that Trumps presence would create such fervor. But seeing it, feeling it, was different. By contrast, the crowds that had gathered for the other Republican candidates didnt seem impressive at all. Suddenly, the entire GOP primary contest felt painfully futile, pathetic even. Why are they even doing this? For the also-ransbasically, the rest of the field alreadywas suffering the abuses of the campaign trail worth even the best-case scenario of being anointed Trumps running mate?

On Saturday, while Pence stood in the sun flipping pork burgers, people in the crowd whispered about him. Look at him sweat, someone behind me said. Hes a dweeb, and so is DeSantis, a young man from Cedar Rapids named Jacob, who declined to give his last name, told me. You just want to take their lunch money. Its instinct. Ramaswamy, whose big personality has charmed many Republicans, apparently felt the need to put on a non-dweeb showing after his interview with the governor, and rapped confidently to the Eminem song Lose Yourself. A sea of silver-haired onlookers, who found themselves trapped near the front of the stage, were obliged to awkwardly bob along.

DeSantis, more than anyone else, suffered at the fair. While he spoke with Reynolds, a plane flew in circles overhead, carrying a long sign that read Be likable, Ron! DeSantis pretended not to notice it. When the Florida governor took his turn in the Pork Tent, Trump supporters gathered behind his photo op, wearing green-and-yellow trucker hats handed out by the Trump campaign. They chanted and yelled insults as DeSantis and his wife flipped burgers.

And when Trump finally arrived on Saturday afternoon, he brought with him a posse of Florida lawmakers who had endorsed him over DeSantis. (Representative Matt Gaetz warmed up the crowd by saying that hed grilled burgers well done at the Pork Tent, but the most done you can be is Ron DeSantis.) Will the humiliation pay off in the end? DeSantiss campaign has to hope so. At least in Iowa, the Florida governor is running somewhat closer to Trump than he is nationally.

Earlier in the day, Id interviewed Matt Wells, a DeSantis supporter and a county chair from Washington, Iowa, who had been following the candidate around the fair all morning. Trumps people dont really know what theyre doing; its all an emotional thing, he told me. Wells worked for Ted Cruzs campaign in 2016. Theyd had a strong ground game then, as DeSantis does now, he said. Trump, Wells added, doesnt have any ground game here.

Helen Lewis: The humiliation of Ron DeSantis

Cruz may have won Iowa, but he quite memorably did not go on to win the 2016 election. I was about to bring up this fact when someone near us gasped. A dozen fingers pointed toward the sky, and people began to scream with excitement. There, in the bright-blue ocean above us, was a plane with TRUMP emblazoned on its side heading for the nearby airport. Someone whispered, Did I tell you that I shook his hand twice? The clamor grew louder.

Trump would be here soon. The man, the myth, had landed.

Entertainment

Why emergency Eurovision vote on Israel might not stop a broadcast boycott

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2 mins ago

October 1, 2025

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Why emergency Eurovision vote on Israel might not stop a broadcast boycott

Eurovision is supposed to be a celebration of the unifying power of music. But for the past two years, it has attracted protests and fan boycotts over its inclusion of Israel amid the country’s continued military action in Gaza.

Ahead of 2026’s contest, while nobody has even sung a note yet, a number of countries have been getting vocal.

“If Israel is there, we won’t be there,” says Natalija Gorscak, the president of broadcaster RTV Slovenia.

As the world waits to see what happens with the negotiations over Donald Trump‘s Gaza peace plan, within the cultural world, there’s no let up in the increasing isolation of Israel.

Slovenia and broadcasters from Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Iceland have all issued statements saying if Israel’s allowed to enter, they’ll consider boycotting the contest next year.

Jolted into action by the controversy, officials from the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) – which runs the contest – have announced plans for an emergency vote.

In a letter to members, EBU president Delphine Ernotte-Cunci said “given that the union has never faced a divisive situation like this before”, the board agreed it “merited a broader democratic basis for a decision”.

Described by the EBU as “an extraordinary meeting of [its] general assembly to be held online”, early next month member countries will be asked to vote on whether Israel should or shouldn’t participate.

Eurovision expert Dr Paul Jordan said: “Ultimately this has been a really challenging issue for the EBU. This is a really complex picture that is building up… and they’ve not been consistent.

“The situation is made even more complicated by the fact the organisers themselves haven’t sometimes followed their own rules about political entries and about political messaging, and they’ve allowed certain countries to, in a sense, get away with breaking the rules or deeming them to have not broken the rules sufficiently to allow participation.

“As far as I’m aware, the Israeli broadcaster has not broken any rules. However, you could argue their inclusion could indeed bring the contest into disrepute, which would be against the organisers’ rules.”

‘We should focus on music’

In 2023, Israel was represented by Noa Kirel, her country’s equivalent to Britney Spears. She came third with her song Unicorn.

“It was one of the highlights in my career, it was an incredible experience for me,” she said.

While she acknowledges “it’s very different from two years ago when I represented Israel”, she hopes her country won’t be excluded next month.

“It’s not about politics, it’s never been like that, and we should keep it that way, to focus on music.”

She believes it would be unfair to punish the Israeli people for the actions of their government: “Voters understand that politics has no connection to this competition.

“Hopefully people will understand and respect that, see the good side… and not the bad side.”

‘European policy needs more balls’

Regardless of the outcome of next month’s vote, Ireland, Iceland, and Slovenia have all confirmed to Sky News that their plans to boycott will stand as long as Israel’s still at war.

Ms Gorscak said: “We can lie to ourselves and say ‘no, it’s not political’ but, you know, you can’t avoid politics.”

She believes it’s fundamentally wrong for bigger countries to be sitting on the fence.

“We are all somehow prisoner of German guilt towards Israel,” she claimed. “European policy, it needs more balls. In certain moments somebody needs to decide, somebody needs to say ‘this is enough’.”

A spokesperson for German broadcaster SWR has said it “supports the consultation process that has been initiated” and that the goal is “to reach a well-founded and sustainable agreement that aligns with the values of the EBU”.

Whether Spain abides by the outcome of next month’s vote might have the biggest impact.

If it makes good on its threat to boycott – as one of the big five backers of Eurovision – financially it’ll hurt.

Ms Gorscak explained: “Slovenia is a small country, and while our participation fee is peanuts, if there are more countries who are not participating it is seen in the budget.”

Israel’s public broadcaster, KAN, has said its “potential disqualification… could have wide-ranging implications for the competition and the values for which the EBU stands”.

Dr Jordan said up until now we’ve mostly seen “virtue signalling” when it comes to Eurovision artists speaking out who’ve ultimately opted to perform regardless of their objections to Israel’s inclusion on the night.

However, should entire nations boycott in 2026, he said the impact will be felt way beyond the contest’s final.

“There are two semi-finals, because of the number of participating countries, and if there isn’t a need for two semi-finals that will impact upon the logistics of the event and even the funding,” he explained.

Pop bangers and power ballads aside, the criticism of the EBU has become deafeningly loud. The world waiting and watching for political decisions – and cultural ones too.

Entertainment

Hunter S Thompson’s death to be reviewed after widow’s request, Colorado officials say

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2 mins ago

October 1, 2025

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Hunter S Thompson's death to be reviewed after widow's request, Colorado officials say

The death of journalist and author Hunter S Thompson will be reviewed by Colorado officials at the request of his widow, the state’s bureau of investigation has announced.

Thompson, best known for his 1971 novel Fear And Loathing In Las Vegas, died aged 67 on 20 February 2005.

The original investigation concluded the death was from an allegedly self-inflicted gunshot wound and was suicide.

In a statement on Tuesday, the Colorado Bureau of Investigation (CBI) said Anita Thompson had requested a case review into her husband’s death, and that it is being carried out to provide an independent perspective on the investigation.

While Sheriff Michael Buglione said there is no new evidence suggesting foul play, “we understand the profound impact Hunter S Thompson had on this community and beyond”.

He added: “By bringing in an outside agency for a fresh look, we hope to provide a definitive and transparent review that may offer peace of mind to his family and the public.”

The CBI added its review would take “an unspecified amount of time”.

Born in 1937, Thompson was regarded as a pioneer in the 1960s New Journalism movement, and wrote the 1967 book Hell’s Angels about the notorious motorcycle gang after spending more than a year living and riding with them.

Famous for his first-person narratives, Thompson’s works inspired a style of reporting called Gonzo journalism – a subjective and more personal style of news writing.

Fear And Loathing In Las Vegas was adapted into a film, starring Johnny Depp – a friend of Thompson’s – and Benicio Del Toro, in 1998.

Sky News has contacted The Gonzo Foundation, a non-profit group founded by Ms Thompson to promote literature, journalism and political activism, for comment.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK

Sports

Ranking all 68 Power 4 QBs: A surprise No. 1, where’s Arch Manning and more

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2 mins ago

October 1, 2025

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Ranking all 68 Power 4 QBs: A surprise No. 1, where's Arch Manning and more

Bill ConnellyOct 1, 2025, 06:52 AM ET
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Preseason All-American Cade Klubnik’s team is 1-3 and he’s 94th in Total QBR. Preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning is 71st. Sam Leavitt, Nico Iamaleava and Drew Allar, all playoff quarterbacks in 2024, are 61st, 76th and 88th, respectively. On the flip side, Notre Dame redshirt freshman C.J. Carr and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, a Division II transfer, are in the top five in Total QBR.

We knew this could be an odd college football season for quarterback play, with so many top teams fielding new starters and only a few known entities — including Klubnik and Allar, who have not earned that label — starting out near the top of the polls. But this has all been even stranger than we could have imagined.

With a month gone in the 2025 season, let’s take stock. We’ve seen plenty of stellar quarterback play, but a lot of it has come from unexpected sources. So let’s rank every power conference team’s quarterback (or quarterback situation) as we head into October.

(Note: References to rushing yards in stat lines below do not include sack yardage.)

Total QBR: 93.4 | Pass Yds: 1,587 | Rush Yds: 80 | Total TDs: 15

He was let down by his defense against Illinois on Saturday, but Maiava is comfortably No. 1 in Total QBR through September, and among QBR-qualified quarterbacks, he’s one of only two to rank in the top 20 in both completion rate (70.5%) and yards per completion (16.2). Illinois was comfortably his worst game of the season, and he still threw for 364 yards with a Total QBR of 85.5.

Total QBR: 88.4 | Pass Yds: 1,211 | Rush Yds: 306 | Total TDs: 15

We still don’t know if Vandy has the raw explosiveness (or defense) to survive a brutal upcoming run of opponents — next four games: at Alabama, LSU, Missouri, at Texas — but we do know that Pavia’s efficiency has gone from good to ruthless in 2025. Fewer negative plays, fewer (but more effective) scrambles and a 75% completion rate. Ridiculously good.

Total QBR: 87.6 | Pass Yds: 1,033 | Rush Yds: 269 | Total TDs: 7

Austin Simmons started the season pretty well as Ole Miss’ starter, but when he injured his ankle, Chambliss stepped in and Wally Pipp’d him. He’s creating more explosive plays with far fewer negative plays and more of a run threat. Last December, he torched Valdosta State to lead Ferris State to the Division II national title. This December, he might lead Ole Miss onto the field for its first SEC championship game.

Total QBR: 82.1 | Pass Yds: 1,208 | Rush Yds: 132 | Total TDs: 18

Indiana ranks first nationally in success rate*, and Mendoza ranks first among QBs. He survived an always tricky trip to Iowa City this past weekend, too, throwing for 233 yards and two touchdowns (albeit with an interception and two sacks). Kurtis Rourke was a huge part of Indiana’s surprise success last season, and thanks to Mendoza the Hoosiers are doing as well or even better this year.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)

Total QBR: 83.0 | Pass Yds: 1,210 | Rush Yds: 131 | Total TDs: 14

After an easy start to his first season as Oregon’s starter, Moore faced the biggest test of his career on a White Out evening at Penn State last Saturday. He threw for a wonderfully controlled 248 yards and three touchdowns with no sacks or interceptions and three rushing first downs. There are more tests to come, but that’s how you become the Heisman betting favorite virtually overnight.

Total QBR: 87.6 | Pass Yds: 1,043 | Rush Yds: 238 | Total TDs: 14

Cincinnati is basically one poor pass away from being one of the biggest stories of the early season. Sorsby’s underthrown interception cost the Bearcats a potential win over Nebraska in Week 1. He has otherwise piloted what might be the most well-rounded offense this side of USC and Indiana.

Saturday’s track meet win at Kansas inserted Sorsby and Cincy into the Big 12 race.

7. CJ Carr, Notre Dame

Total QBR: 88.4 | Pass Yds: 1,091 | Rush Yds: 60 | Total TDs: 10

Trinidad Chambliss against Arkansas two weeks ago: 21-of-29 passing for 353 yards with a touchdown. Carr against Arkansas on Saturday: 22-of-30 for 354 yards with four touchdowns. Arkansas’ defense may have completely quit Saturday, but the Fighting Irish made it happen. Carr doesn’t offer much of a run threat, but his Total QBR rating has improved each game this season.

Total QBR: 84.2 | Pass Yds: 1,138 | Rush Yds: 86 | Total TDs: 13

In his first road start of 2025, against Florida State, Simpson was stressed and inaccurate. In his second road start, he beat Georgia, throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for another score (and two other first downs). Projected over 13 games, he’s on pace for 3,700 passing yards, 42 combined touchdowns and, at the moment, zero interceptions. First impressions are rarely accurate.

Total QBR: 87.0 | Pass Yds: 951 | Rush Yds: 283 | Total TDs: 8

The less fair way to look at Williams’ performance this season: He has faced one good defense (Ohio State) and bombed the test, averaging 4.2 yards per dropback with as many sacks (six) as points scored. The fairer way: Ohio State’s defense is going to do that to just about anyone, and he has torched everyone else. He’s still top 10 in Total QBR, after all, and that’s opponent-adjusted.

Total QBR: 77.6 | Pass Yds: 1,262 | Rush Yds: 250 | Total TDs: 17

Kansas hasn’t solved its close-game woes this season, but considering the Jayhawks topped 30 points in both losses, it’s hard to blame Daniels and the offense for that. Daniels threw for 668 yards with 109 non-sack rushing yards and seven combined touchdowns in those losses, and he and the KU offense will continue to give the Jayhawks a chance in the close games still to come.

Total QBR: 82.2 | Pass Yds: 987 | Rush Yds: 17 | Total TDs: 10

It’s almost impossible to grade Sayin on the same scale as everyone else. He leads the nation with a 79% completion rate, he has taken only two sacks and he’s third in success rate. He’s keeping the trains on time beautifully. But he’s also throwing mostly short passes to extremely talented receivers, and his defense has yet to allow double-digit points in a game.

Total QBR: 75.5 | Pass Yds: 1,215 | Rush Yds: 211 | Total TDs: 11

Obviously this one’s a bit tricky, as Mateer is out for an undetermined amount of time after hand surgery. But since he’s expected back at some point this season, we’ll put him on this list.

Mateer is also tricky to evaluate because Oklahoma’s offense has been mediocre this season (61st in points per drive, 56th in yards per play), but anything good has probably been because of him. He’s carrying a heavy load for an otherwise poor run game, and he’s distributing the ball nicely among four pass catchers. I didn’t think he should be the Heisman favorite for his play, but he’s playing well with a high degree of difficulty.

Total QBR: 85.7 | Pass Yds: 1,279 | Rush Yds: 183 | Total TDs: 14

Over the past three seasons, Virginia’s leading passers have averaged 2,098 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions per season. Projected over 13 games, Morris is on pace for 3,325 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 picks. Throw in quality red zone rushing, and this is easily the best QB play the Cavaliers have seen since Brennan Armstrong’s peak in 2021.

Total QBR: 87.6 | Pass Yds: 1,398 | Rush Yds: 483 | Total TDs: 14

Like Jalon Daniels, you can’t really blame Green for his awful defense. All he has done is put himself on a pace for a season with 3,300 passing yards and 1,100 rushing yards (projected over 12 games). He still plays with fire — he has thrown five interceptions, and he has tempted fate with a few more INT-worthy throws — but he’s sixth in Total QBR because he makes more big plays than almost anyone.

Total QBR: 84.8 | Pass Yds: 1,183 | Rush Yds: 106 | Total TDs: 13

Sacks have become a problem for the veteran (he has taken 17 of them in five games), but he has hinted at a new level of upside in 2025 as well. In Saturday’s big rebound win over USC, Altmyer completed 20 of 26 passes for 328 yards and two scores and had a rushing TD as well. He’s completing a career-high 71% of his passes for a career-best 13.1 yards per completion.

Total QBR: 78.3 | Pass Yds: 848 | Rush Yds: 223 | Total TDs: 8

He’s never going to be the most consistent passer in the world, but almost no other QB combines Castellanos’ big-play passing threat with dangerous scrambling.

Virginia showed what can happen if you manage to hem Castellanos in and force him to pass instead of scrambling, but FSU still scored 35 points in regulation, and he still combined 254 passing yards with 78 rushing yards.

Total QBR: 72.2 | Pass Yds: 1,459 | Rush Yds: 76 | Total TDs: 15

After a nearly flawless start, Aguilar’s game has sprung some leaks of late — he has thrown five interceptions in his past three games and took a pair of sacks against Mississippi State. Still, he has brought the explosiveness back to the Tennessee offense, averaging 14.3 yards per completion while taking only three sacks all season. Not bad for a guy on his third school (and third offense) in 12 months.

Total QBR: 81.9 | Pass Yds: 972 | Rush Yds: 38 | Total TDs: 8

It’s hard to figure out Beck and Miami’s offense at the moment. The Hurricanes are up to third in the AP poll, and he’s the No. 4 Heisman betting favorite with a 73% completion rate (ninth among qualified QBs). But he’s 68th nationally in yards per completion (11.9) and 95th in interception rate (2.7%), and he provides no run threat whatsoever. The defense has been more responsible than the offense for Miami’s 4-0 start.

Total QBR: 77.6 | Pass Yds: 1,203 | Rush Yds: 184 | Total TDs: 12

Opponents have begun to figure Pribula out a bit, and he has seen his interception rate rise while his sack rate remains high. But the good still drastically outweighs the bad: He’s third nationally in completion rate (76%), and among power conference QBs, his third-down success rate (59%) ranks behind only Maiava’s 61%. He left Penn State because he was stuck behind Drew Allar, but he has drastically outplayed Allar thus far in 2025.

Total QBR: 88.2 | Pass Yds: 851 | Rush Yds: 158 | Total TDs: 8

At this point, Stockton is the personification of the Georgia program as a whole: clearly talented, pretty good at everything and not necessarily elite at anything. He has thrown 39% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (sixth most), and he’s averaging just 5.9 air yards per attempt (seventh lowest). That’s keeping the Dawgs on schedule, but explosiveness is proving to be an issue.

Total QBR: 77.9 | Pass Yds: 1,713 | Rush Yds: 58 | Total TDs: 18

Keep the pass rushers off Robertson, and you’ll win games. Baylor is 0-2 when his pressure rate is above 27% (and his sack rate is above 3%), and the Bears are 3-0 and averaging 45 points per game otherwise. And no matter what, he’s a hell of a volume passer: Projected over 13 games, he’s on pace for nearly 4,500 yards and 44 TDs, and he leads the nation in both categories.

Total QBR: 77.0 | Pass Yds: 1,573 | Rush Yds: 23 | Total TDs: 13

The high-profile Tulane transfer has rebounded from error-prone losses to Illinois and Tulane. In his first two ACC games, Mensah threw for 537 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions and an 88.9 Total QBR, and Duke scored 83 points. If that’s a sign of things to come, the Blue Devils’ investment could end up paying off, and they could become sleeper ACC title game contenders.

Total QBR: 78.5 | Pass Yds: 1,242 | Rush Yds: 53 | Total TDs: 12

The negative plays were too much for Hoover and TCU to overcome at Arizona State last Friday — his 242 passing yards (and rushing touchdown) put the Horned Frogs in position for an upset, but two interceptions and a back-breaking late sack-and-strip (the last of six sacks) were too much to overcome. Still, Hoover’s high-volume explosiveness could keep the Frogs in the Big 12 race.

Total QBR: 77.6 | Pass Yds: 1,103 | Rush Yds: 97 | Total TDs: 12

ISU’s run game isn’t nearly as effective as it was supposed to be, but the Cyclones are 5-0 all the same, both because the defense is again solid and because Becht is nicely efficient. He ranks 24th in success rate — 11th on third or fourth down — and 26th in yards per dropback. The big plays are picking up too: He’s averaging 18.1 yards per completion over the past two games.

Total QBR: 77.2 | Pass Yds: 1,137 | Rush Yds: 29 | Total TDs: 11

Raiola’s 76% completion rate ranks fourth nationally, and his 11-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio is pretty sexy, but he somehow takes forever to throw (2.89 seconds on average, 108th) extremely short passes (6.2 air yards per attempt, 123rd) and takes a lot of sacks in the process (28.6% sacks to pressures, 119th). Still, the Cornhuskers rank 16th in points per drive and ninth in success rate so he’s doing something right.

Total QBR: 66.6 | Pass Yds: 1,076 | Rush Yds: 162 | Total TDs: 10

Reed is an explosive playmaker (14.7 yards per completion, 6.0 yards per non-sack carry) who, unlike lots of other playmakers, avoids sacks. He’s excellent against zone coverage too (14th in QBR vs. zone). But his overall efficiency is hit-or-miss (52nd in success rate), and he hasn’t solved man coverage (123rd in QBR vs. man). He’s good, but his profile is a mixed bag right now.

Total QBR: 66.0 | Pass Yds: 886 | Rush Yds: 210 | Total TDs: 5

He’s getting no help from a dreadful run game, and sacks remain a devastating issue — South Carolina ranks 126th in pressure rate allowed (which is potentially on the O-line) and 119th in sacks per pressure (which is on Sellers). But he’s still a playmaker: He averages 15.3 yards per completion (ninth) — with only one interception — and 9.2 yards per scramble. Both flaws and upside remain obvious.

Total QBR: 64.5 | Pass Yds: 1,065 | Rush Yds: 37 | Total TDs: 11

Injuries have piled up for Morton through the years, and he has already had to leave a couple of games this season with minor injuries as well. But when he’s out there, he’s super explosive: He’s seventh nationally in yards per completion (15.4) and sixth in yards per dropback (sixth). And backup Will Hammond has proved pretty stellar when he has had to enter the game.

Total QBR: 75.5 | Pass Yds: 758 | Rush Yds: 398 | Total TDs: 10

King attempts more designed runs than anyone on this list, and every time he takes a hit, he gets up looking like he has taken more career hits than Adrian Peterson. His toughness is unquestionable, but his actual passing rankings — 71st in yards per dropback, 48th in success rate — are awfully mediocre this year. He has a good backup in Aaron Philo, but the Tech offense has one note when King is in the game.

Total QBR: 72.5 | Pass Yds: 1,399 | Rush Yds: 86 | Total TDs: 11

Rutgers is averaging over 30 points and 400 yards per game for the first time since 2007 — the Scarlet Knights just hit 28 points in back-to-back games against top-25 defenses — and despite some pretty big sack issues, Kaliakmanis’ passing has been the primary reason for that. Unfortunately, the defense hasn’t held up its end of the bargain.

Total QBR: 64.1 | Pass Yds: 1,039 | Rush Yds: 352 | Total TDs: 13

After an offseason of pretty large hype, Leavitt stumbled out of the gate in 2025. But he has picked up steam since.

First two games: 42.0 Total QBR, 57% completion rate, 5.7 yards per dropback, 3 INT

Last three games: 73.6 Total QBR, 67% completion rate, 7.0 yards per dropback, 0 INT

He hasn’t been a top-30 quarterback over five games, but the guy we’ve seen in recent weeks sure is.

Total QBR: 78.4 | Pass Yds: 1,323 | Rush Yds: 125 | Total TDs: 12

Bailey has pulled an anti-Leavitt. Things started well, but the mistakes are adding up in a hurry.

First three games: 85.2 Total QBR, 7.7 yards per dropback, 1.1% INT rate, 2.2% sack rate

Last two games: 66.7 Total QBR, 7.0 yards per dropback, 4.1% INT rate, 8.8% sack rate

Perhaps not surprisingly, Bailey’s Wolfpack started 3-0 but have now lost two straight.

Total QBR: 78.8 | Pass Yds: 868 | Rush Yds: 225 | Total TDs: 11

We’re definitely seeing a lot of examples of a specific prototype in this section — lots of time to throw, lots of sacks, high completion rate on mostly short passes, a healthy number of (non-sack) rushing yards — and Chiles is a particular example. He’s hinted at huge explosiveness (17.7 yards per completion vs. USC), but the State defense is poor enough that he has to be great for the Spartans to do well.

Total QBR: 72.1 | Pass Yds: 1,027 | Rush Yds: 273 | Total TDs: 13

Dampier is mobile and heavy on designed runs, but he bucks the stereotype by taking almost no sacks. You can stay on schedule well with Dampier as your QB — as Utah is learning — but you won’t see many big pass plays, and if an opponent like, say, Texas Tech is knocking you off schedule frequently, disaster could follow. (Especially since nagging injuries are often a thing for a guy who gets hit that much.)

Total QBR: 55.7 | Pass Yds: 1,126 | Rush Yds: 111 | Total TDs: 10

Kevin Jennings charged into the starting lineup in place of a slow-starting Preston Stone last year and thrived, winning nine straight starts and eventually leading SMU to the CFP. Then, something broke.

First nine starts (2024): 9-0 record, 77.9 Total QBR, 9.2 yards per dropback, 2.5% INT rate, 3.6% sack rate

Last five starts (2024-25): 1-4 record, 59.0 Total QBR, 6.5 yards per dropback, 4.4% INT rate, 5.7% sack rate

He made some solid plays in losses to Baylor and TCU this September, but he’s still making too many mistakes to account for a sketchy defense.

Total QBR: 72.7 | Pass Yds: 1,029 | Rush Yds: 23 | Total TDs: 7

Moss pretty much had to be in the middle of this list because he couldn’t have a more average statistical profile if you created it in a lab: He’s 59th in completion rate (65.6%), 67th in yards per completion (12.0), 70th in yards per dropback (7.0), 76th in sack rate (5.8%) and 79th in INT rate (2.3%). You could do better, and you could do worse.

Total QBR: 76.4 | Pass Yds: 1,159 | Rush Yds: 50 | Total TDs: 8

The preseason Heisman contender dealt with a torso injury before the season and sure looks like he’s still dealing with it, but he has to throw all the time because LSU’s run game stinks. So he’s throwing quick passes (115th in air yards per attempt) but not completing a huge percentage (43rd in completion rate), and the ones he’s completing aren’t going anywhere (112th in yards per completion). LSU’s defense is finally excellent, but Nussmeier and the offense aren’t living up to their end of the bargain.

Total QBR: 77.3 | Pass Yds: 733 | Rush Yds: 185 | Total TDs: 5

Underwood is mature, and he has a huge arm and strong fight-or-flight instincts — he’s 38th in sack rate (3.8%) and seventh in yards per scramble (12.4). He’s also still learning the whole quarterbacking thing. He fires 99 mph fastballs when they aren’t necessary, and he has experienced bouts of inaccuracy (120th in completion rate). Improvement over Michigan’s 2024 QBs? Absolutely. Altogether good? Not quite yet.

Total QBR: 67.6 | Pass Yds: 697 | Rush Yds: 183 | Total TDs: 10

BYU has an excellent running back (LJ Martin) and an effective defense. The Cougars have the key components to survive starting a true freshman and trying not to ask too much of him. He’s completing 68% of his (mostly short) passes, using his legs a decent amount and avoiding negative plays. As long as he’s not being asked to make huge plays on third-and-long, he can keep managing the game.

Total QBR: 76.6 | Pass Yds: 684 | Rush Yds: 260 | Total TDs: 9

After briefly losing his job early in the season, Salter, the Liberty transfer, is back in the lineup, and he’s 21st in success rate with only one interception. But he’s facing constant pressure, scrambling and throwing outside the pocket a lot. It worked against Wyoming, not so much against BYU, and with games against TCU, Iowa State and Utah on deck, any hopes of a decent season will require some immediate stability.

Total QBR: 57.2 | Pass Yds: 888 | Rush Yds: 132 | Total TDs: 14

It almost looks like paralysis by analysis for Manning. He has been raised as a perfect quarterback specimen and knows every passing angle, and he seems to freeze up while considering what to do sometimes. He averages 3.1 seconds to throw (seventh most in the country), and he’s 100th in interception rate (2.8%) and 96th in completion rate (61.3%). Texas’ defense will buy him development time, and things could click at any moment, but they haven’t yet.

Total QBR: 66.8 | Pass Yds: 958 | Rush Yds: 5 | Total TDs: 8

Lindsey enjoyed a nice performance against Rutgers, throwing for 324 yards and three touchdowns in a win. He’s 15th nationally in success rate (52.8%) despite rarely throwing at or behind the line, though he’s averaging only 10.6 yards per completion against power-conference opponents. There’s absolutely no run threat here, but safe passing combined with strong defense should produce at least seven or eight wins.

Total QBR: 70.0 | Pass Yds: 846 | Rush Yds: 311 | Total TDs: 10

The returns, they are diminishing quickly.

Arnold has completed at least 65% of his passes in three of five games (with zero interceptions on the year). But he has taken at least four sacks three times, and he has taken 14 in the past two games. His protection is poor, and holding on to the ball too long is getting him hit constantly without any threat of big plays (9.7 yards per completion). This is an increasing disaster.

Total QBR: 55.6 | Pass Yds: 1,036 | Rush Yds: 131 | Total TDs: 8

After transferring to North Carolina and then returning, Browne has had three pretty good games (with a Total QBR of 71 or higher) and one dreadful one (three picks and five sacks against USC). He is getting little help from his run game and almost none from his defense, but he’s averaging 13.5 yards per completion, and he’s on pace for 3,100 yards and 18 touchdowns. Massive improvement for Purdue.

Total QBR: 54.3 | Pass Yds: 1,064 | Rush Yds: 117 | Total TDs: 9

Shapen scrambles a lot and takes too many sacks, but he does have occasional success as a big-play hunter. That has resulted in an upset of Arizona State — and a pick-six and a fumble-six in a narrow loss to Tennessee. We can probably expect similar volatility the rest of the year. (We can also probably expect MSU’s first bowl in three seasons.)

Total QBR: 58.3 | Pass Yds: 839 | Rush Yds: 175 | Total TDs: 10

Regarded as the top pocket passer in the 2022 recruiting class, Weigman has come to rely on his mobility. He has run for 13 first downs and four touchdowns, but he also has taken hits on 44% of his dropbacks (120th nationally). Regardless, it has added an extra dimension to pretty average passing (106th in success rate, 63rd in yards per dropback), and has helped keep Houston unbeaten into October.

Total QBR: 59.7 | Pass Yds: 1,019 | Rush Yds: 168 | Total TDs: 10

Where’s the sense of adventure? Johnson’s instincts seem to be tangled up as he attempts to convert great athletic skills into NFL-caliber QB play. He has spent most of 2025 taking few chances with his arm (one interception but only 10.7 yards per completion) and trying to avoid making plays with his legs (seven scrambles, albeit for 106 yards). He finally used his legs last week against UCF, however, and produced his best game of the year. Maybe that’s a sign of improvement to come?

Total QBR: 53.2 | Pass Yds: 1,038 | Rush Yds: 26 | Total TDs: 10

Maryland has given Washington training wheels. The true freshman has started from day one, and he dropped back to pass at least 35 times against his first three FBS opponents. Granted, a lot of those were quick sideline passes, and he’s completing only 51% of his passes at least 5 yards downfield. But he has thrown just one pick and taken one sack, and avoiding disaster has helped to keep the Terps unbeaten.

Total QBR: 48.5 | Pass Yds: 1,242 | Rush Yds: 62 | Total TDs: 9

Like Washington, Sagapolutele has gone straight to the deep end. The true freshman has thrown 178 passes, eighth most in FBS, and has alternated between flashes of excellence and, against San Diego State, absolute disaster (17-for-38 with two picks). If you grade on a curve, however, this is going about as well as the blue-chipper could have expected, and he should top 3,000 yards with about 20 touchdowns.

Total QBR: 50.0 | Pass Yds: 1,050 | Rush Yds: 133 | Total TDs: 12

Last season, Holstein was pretty good for about five games, then faded rapidly. This season, it took only two games. After torching overwhelmed Duquesne and Central Michigan defenses, he took six sacks with an interception against West Virginia, then threw two costly picks and got benched in the fourth quarter last week against Louisville. At his best, he’s a bold playmaker. But there are too many picks and sacks.

Total QBR: 63.0 | Pass Yds: 965 | Rush Yds: 133 | Total TDs: 11

Arizona has shown some life after a 2024 collapse, but it mostly has come from the defense and run game. In three games against FBS opponents, Fifita averaged a ghastly 4.9 yards per dropback with six sacks, and in the Wildcats’ loss to Iowa State last week he threw two interceptions and averaged just 7.9 yards per completion. When Arizona has to throw, the ball doesn’t really go anywhere.

Total QBR: 54.8 | Pass Yds: 1,188 | Rush Yds: 24 | Total TDs: 10

The Alabama transfer averaged 8.7 yards per dropback in his first start against an FBS opponent, then averaged 6.8 in his second and 4.9 in his third. Teams blitz him a little more each week, and his interception rate is going up at the same time that his average yards per completion is going down. He beat out incumbent Grayson James upon his arrival from Tuscaloosa, but the shine has worn off quickly.

53. Three injured QBs, UCF

Total QBR: 58.4 | Pass Yds: 938 | Rush Yds: 288 | Total TDs: 9

Cam Fancher injured his back just nine passes into the season. Tayven Jackson led UCF to three wins but hurt his shoulder and struggled against Kansas State. When Jacurri Brown also hurt his shoulder, Jackson came back in but accomplished little. Fancher should be ready this week if Jackson is too limited, and Jackson was pretty good in the blowout of North Carolina. But this is a fluid situation.

Total QBR: 45.1 | Pass Yds: 996 | Rush Yds: 94 | Total TDs: 7

It’s just shocking how poor Clemson’s passing game has been this year. Klubnik ranks 93rd in yards per dropback, 102nd in success rate and 96th in interception rate. He’s facing blitzes constantly behind a banged-up offensive line (the run game has been wholly mediocre), and he’s firing short and mostly ineffective passes. He posted a 78.7 Total QBR in 2024, but he hasn’t topped 60.0 in a 2025 game yet. This has been an utterly disastrous September.

Total QBR: 48.4 | Pass Yds: 763 | Rush Yds: 86 | Total TDs: 6

In one drive against Oregon, with Penn State down 14, Allar completed three passes for 56 yards and a beautiful touchdown lob. The rest of the game, he went 11-for-22 for 81 yards and a game-clinching pick. His big-game production is a known issue, but he hasn’t really produced against anyone, throwing few deep balls and averaging 10.8 yards per completion. This has not yet become the breakthrough year Allar hoped for.

Total QBR: 53.7 | Pass Yds: 1,105 | Rush Yds: 257 | Total TDs: 12

One of the more proven QBs in the ACC heading into 2025, Drones has averaged just 4.8 yards per dropback in four games against FBS opponents, with three interceptions and two fumbles. He remains a solid scrambler, but he’s facing constant pressure and has only once completed more than 59% of his passes. Tech has won two straight after an 0-3 start, but Drones hasn’t been particularly responsible for that.

Total QBR: 46.9 | Pass Yds: 636 | Rush Yds: 200 | Total TDs: 10

I had high hopes for the South Dakota State transfer, and he certainly has improved since a dismal start.

First two games: 25.7 Total QBR, 53.8% completion rate, 2.8 yards per dropback

Last three games: 64.5 Total QBR, 70.1% completion rate, 6.5 yards per dropback

Still, Iowa scored just 15 points against Indiana on Saturday and missed a shot at an upset. He’s getting up to speed, but the remaining schedule has lots of good defenses on it.

Total QBR: 54.6 | Pass Yds: 788 | Rush Yds: 252 | Total TDs: 5

Iamaleava was an unfinished product at Tennessee in 2024 — took too long to throw, too many sacks, too few big plays — but he has seen everything fall apart with a bad supporting cast at UCLA. He ranks 119th in yards per completion (9.7), 83rd in INT rate (2.4%) and 91st in sack rate (6.8%), and UCLA seems to start every game down 21-0. Per SP+, the Bruins now have a 61% chance of finishing 0-12. Ouch.

Total QBR: 35.7 | Pass Yds: 1,167 | Rush Yds: 20 | Total TDs: 5

Credit where it’s due: Like Gronowski, Gulbranson has recovered from an abysmal start.

First two games: 11.7 Total QBR, 51.6% completion rate, 4.8% INT rate, 3.2 yards per dropback

Last three games: 56.6 Total QBR, 66.0% completion rate, 0.0% INT rate, 8.0 yards per dropback

He led three late scoring drives to save Stanford against San José State last weekend, and honestly, 2-3 is better than I thought the Cardinal would be right now. But unless Gulbranson has another gear, a fifth straight 3-9 finish is likely.

Total QBR: 39.8 | Pass Yds: 916 | Rush Yds: 226 | Total TDs: 5

The well-traveled Ashford is what he is at this point: a low-efficiency (111th in completion rate, 120th in success rate), high-explosiveness (25th in yards per completion) passer with solid legs (29th in non-sack rushing yards). Ashford and Wake Forest started strong against both NC State and Georgia Tech, but he went a combined 13-for-31 in the second half, and the Demon Deacons lost both games.

Total QBR: 46.9 | Pass Yds: 690 | Rush Yds: 68 | Total TDs: 5

Lagway battled back from offseason injuries, but he has been a shadow of his freshman self. He’s making no big plays (8.3 yards per completion), his already-high interception and sack rates have gone up — he’s 127th in the former and 92nd in the latter — and his 1-3 Gators are projected favorites in just one more game. Barring an immediate course correction, this looks like a massive lost season.

Total QBR: 36.2 | Pass Yds: 753 | Rush Yds: 138 | Total TDs: 6

Edwards won the starting job and got hurt almost immediately. O’Neil has thrown mostly short passes ineffectively, combining 10.7 yards per completion (100th) with a dreadful 5.9% interception rate (131st). Edwards should return soon, but is he good enough to totally save an offense without a run game or deep threats (and zero remaining games as a projected favorite)? Probably not.

Total QBR: 21.6 | Pass Yds: 328 | Rush Yds: 20 | Total TDs: 2

Steve Angeli suffered a season-ending injury in Syracuse’s upset of Clemson, and against a disappointing Duke defense on Saturday, Collins struggled. Granted, his receivers lost two fumbles, but he also fumbled and threw an interception while averaging 5.6 yards per dropback in a 38-3 loss. He avoids pressure nicely, and there are a few more iffy defenses on the schedule, but this could be a learning process.

64. Two or three square pegs for round holes, West Virginia

Total QBR: 35.7 | Pass Yds: 770 | Rush Yds: 270 | Total TDs: 4

Nicco Marchiol can throw a little. Jaylen Henderson can run. Neither seems to be able to fulfill all the requirements in a Rich Rodriguez offense, however. After Marchiol oversaw a blowout loss to Kansas, Henderson oversaw a blowout loss to Utah. It’s possible a third option, Khalil Wilkins, starts against BYU this week after decent work during garbage time last week. Regardless, no answers have emerged thus far.

Total QBR: 37.6 | Pass Yds: 649 | Rush Yds: 122 | Total TDs: 1

Thrust into the lineup when Hauss Hejny suffered a foot injury early in Week 1, Flores threw two pick-sixes against Oregon and engineered a total of 15 points in his first two starts. He improved against Baylor, but he still averaged only 5.8 yards per dropback with a 45.3 Total QBR. Hejny should return soon, but per SP+, OSU (1-3) is a projected underdog of at least 12 points in every remaining game.

66. Gio Lopez, North Carolina

Total QBR: 16.3 | Pass Yds: 430 | Rush Yds: 105 | Total TDs: 4

After an exciting season at South Alabama (Total QBR: 72.3), Lopez has bombed in his first year in Freddie Kitchens’ offense. He has yet to produce a Total QBR higher than 35.0 in any game, and he averaged just 4.4 yards per dropback in two blowout losses, both of which he left injured. It might be best for both UNC and Lopez if Max Johnson were named the starter moving forward.

Total QBR: 22.1 | Pass Yds: 656 | Rush Yds: 15 | Total TDs: 4

Stone lost his job to Kevin Jennings at SMU last season and transferred, hoping to save both his college career and Northwestern’s offense. Four games in, he ranks 130th nationally in Total QBR, 100th in completion rate (60.6%), 103rd in yards per completion (10.4), 130th in interception rate (5.8%) and 98th in sack rate. That might actually represent improvement for the Wildcats, but yuck.

Total QBR: 25.4 | Pass Yds: 636 | Rush Yds: 89 | Total TDs: 3

Boley threw for 240 yards against Eastern Michigan, with seven completions over 20 yards. Against three defenses ranked higher than 135th in SP+, however, he and Calzada have gone a combined 36-for-75 for 396 yards with two interceptions and nine sacks. And 53 of those yards came on a single dump-off pass. The QB position offered almost nothing for UK last season, and it’s offering even less in 2025.