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Inflation is forcing Americans to spend $709 more per month on everyday goods and services than they did just two years ago, according to the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“The high inflation of the past 2+ years has done lots of economic damage,” Mark Zandi tweeted on Friday following the release of the Consumer Price Index — a closely-watched measure of inflation that tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services.

The CPI rose moderately, to 3.2% in July versus a year earlier.

“Due to the high inflation, the typical household spent $202 more in a July than they did a year ago to buy the same goods and services. And they spent $709 more than they did 2 years ago,” Zandi added.

Zandi — who also co-founded Moody’s global economic analysis service, Economy.com — said he sees relief ahead, predicting that inflation is “set to moderate further” as the Federal Reserve approaches its 2% inflation goal.

“Vehicle prices will decline more, so too will electricity prices, and the growth in the cost of housing will slow further. The biggest worry is the jump in oil prices, which bears close watching,” he added in the thread posted to X, formerly known as Twitter.

To be sure, the high inflation of the past 2+ years has done lots of economic damage. Due to the high inflation, the typical household spent $202 more in a July than they did a year ago to buy the same goods and services. And they spent $709 more than they did 2 years ago.

Though gas prices hit an eight-month high late last month, energy unexpectedly rose a mere 0.1%, the latest CPI report showed.

However, over the past month, US West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures climbed nearly 10%, to $82.83 and $86.39, respectively.

Zandi concluded his analysis with: “The deeper I dig into last weeks inflation statistics, the more confident I am that inflation will be back to the Feds inflation target by this time next year. And this without more interest rate hikes, a recession, or even much of an increase in unemployment.”

Fed officials have said that they’re also no longer forecasting a recession, though the sentiment opposes that of ratings agency Fitch, which owngraded the US top-tier sovereign credit from AAA to AA+, citing the possibility that the economy will slip into a mild recession later this year.

Consumers, however, have continued to feel reprieve from the central bank’s aggressive tightening regime, with core CPI which excludes volatile food and energy prices only rising 0.2% from a month ago, matching the 0.2% increase in June.

“The trend lines look good,” Zandi said, noting that “the July CPI report was great,” especially when compared to June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1% to hit a four-decade high.

Rising housing costs were by far the largest contributor to Julys uptick in prices, accounting for 90% of the advance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, though Zandi didn’t seem too concerned.

When The Post reached out to Moody’s for comment, the financial services firm pointed to commentary from another economist at the company, Bernard Yaros, who said that “the US consumer price index was fully in line with our and consensus expectations in July.”

“Moodys Analytics believes that the Federal Reserve is done with interest-rate hikes for the current tightening cycle, and the July CPI helps cement our near-term view on monetary policy,” he added.

The CPI report fueled questions about whether the Fed will continue to hike interest rates later this year after the Fed decided on a 25-basis-point rate hike in July, taking them to a 22-year high.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the advance was a unanimous decision, raising the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. 

Economists were divided on the pending rate hikes following the release of the CPI report.

Greg Wilensky, head of US fixed income at Janus Henderson Investors, added: If economic conditions continue as expected, we believe we have seen the last hike for this cycle. This makes us more constructive on adding interest-rate risk, particularly at the front of curve.

Meanwhile, Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio Aleman believes stubbornly-high shelter costs are slated to put pressure on headline inflation going forward.

No doubt the Fed will also look at the Labor Departments hiring report for July as it considers whether its done enough to snuff out inflation.

Last month, US employers added 187,000 jobs, the lowest number since COVID peaked in 2020, though unemployment remained little changed month-over-month, at 3.5%.

The labor market has showed surprising resiliency over the last couple of months, adding 209,000 jobs in June and a robust 339,000 jobs in May.

The US is currently enjoying a 30-month streak of monthly job gains.

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Has altseason finished? XRP ETF applications flood in, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 2 – 8

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Has altseason finished? XRP ETF applications flood in, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 2 – 8

Is altcoin season potential still alive or running out of steam? XRP ETF filings flood in, and more: Hodler’s Digest

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Business

‘Ghost broking’: Reports of scammers selling fake car insurance rise by 30% over five years

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'Ghost broking': Reports of scammers selling fake car insurance rise by 30% over five years

Reports of “ghost broking”, scammers selling fake car insurance, have risen by 30% over the last five years, exclusive data obtained by Sky News reveals.

Ghost brokers sell false policies to drivers, manipulate information given to genuine insurance companies, or take out insurance and cancel it straight away. This leaves people without valid car insurance, which is illegal.

Wayne Simpson lost over £500 to a ghost broker.

He was looking for cheap car insurance and saw an advertisement on social media for a deal which was half the price of other companies.

He bought the policy, and it was only when he tried to make a claim after a crash that he discovered the truth: “We called up Aviva and they told me there wasn’t a policy taken out in my name and that the number we had given them was not a number they would use.

“That’s when the dust settles, and you realise it’s been a scam.”

Wayne Simpson
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Wayne Simpson

Aviva was not at fault. Victims are lured in by genuine-looking websites and are sent professional-looking invoices.

Mr Simpson received insurance documents that looked so real, they even fooled the police officer at the accident.

“She said, ‘Your car’s not popping up as insured’. Straight away I went to my glove box, pulled the insurance documents, showed her the documents and she read through it and said, ‘That’s totally fine’,” he said.

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Police say young drivers are most likely to be targeted by ghost brokers, partly because they are often looking to reduce their insurance costs.

According to the RAC, almost half of young drivers said insurance costs were a top concern.

Exclusive data obtained by Sky News from Action Fraud reveals “ghost broking” reports have risen by 30% since 2019.

Detective Superintendent Tom Hill
Image:
Detective Superintendent Tom Hill

Detective Superintendent Tom Hill, head of the City of London Police’s Insurance Fraud Enforcement Department, said social media is behind this increase: “There are limited barriers to entry for social media accounts to be set up so people can take out car insurance and spread the word quite widely.

“Do your research and make sure you’re dealing with a genuine broker or genuine insurance company. If the conversation has been moved on to WhatsApp, for example, alarm bells should be ringing”.

In 2024, victims of ghost broking lost an average of £2,206.

Victims lose money to the scam and then have to pay additional costs to repair their cars after an accident. They could also face criminal charges, a fine or licence points if found to be driving without a valid licence.

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World

Hostage told Hamas crowd he hoped to see wife and daughters after release – suggesting he didn’t know they were killed on 7 October

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Hostage told Hamas crowd he hoped to see wife and daughters after release – suggesting he didn't know they were killed on 7 October

A released Israeli hostage told a Hamas crowd he hoped to see his wife and daughters after his release – suggesting he did not know they had been killed on 7 October.

Eli Sharabi, Ohad Ben Ami and Or Levy were the latest hostages freed this morning in front of a crowd of heavily armed fighters.

Both Mr Ami, 56, and Mr Sharabi, 52, were taken from Kibbutz Be’eri during the 7 October attack. Mr Levy, 34, was abducted from the Nova music festival.

It was not known if Mr Sharabi was aware his wife and children had been killed by Hamas over a year ago. His Bristol-born wife Lianne Sharabi, along with their children 16-year-old Noiya and 13-year-old Yahel, were killed while Mr Sharabi and his brother Yossi were taken hostage.

Yossi was later killed while in captivity.

Mr Sharabi was paraded on a podium by armed Hamas personnel and interviewed before his release earlier today.

In one of his answers, which was clearly given under duress, he said he was hoping to see his wife and daughters very soon, according to translations provided by our US partner NBC News.

Eli Sharabi appeared 'skinny' and 'gaunt', his relative said. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Eli Sharabi. Pic: Reuters

Mr Sharabi also told the crowd he was aware of his brother’s death and said he was “very angry” with the Israeli government.

All three hostages made similar critical comments about Israel while on stage with the armed men.

The comments came as Stephen Brisley, Mr Sharabi’s brother-in-law, told Sky News presenter Anna Jones this morning that he wasn’t sure if he had found out about his family’s fate.

Israeli hostages are released by Hamas. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Israeli hostages were paraded on stage before being released by Hamas. Pic: Reuters

“All the way through this, we’ve wondered whether what’s kept him going is the prospect of being reunited with Lianne and the girls,” he said.

He described his brother-in-law as looking “skinny” and “gaunt”.

“You could see how skinny he is, how pale he is. You wonder how much daylight he’s seen – very gaunt face,” he said.

“I think what struck me the most is that Eli has a very happy face, he smiles with his whole face and smiles with his eyes and it was the lack of light in his eyes that I think is one of the most distressing parts of it.”

The hostages were reunited with family. Pic: IDF
Image:
The hostages were reunited with family. Pic: IDF

Israeli captive, Ohad Ben Ami waves as he is escorted by Hamas fighters. Pic: AP
Image:
Israeli captive, Ohad Ben Ami waves as he is escorted by Hamas fighters. Pic: AP

Photos after his release showed Mr Sharabi reuniting with his wider family.

Gaza ceasefire latest: Live updates as Hamas releases three Israeli hostages

Israeli captive Or Levy after his release. Pic: AP
Image:
Israeli captive Or Levy after his release. Pic: AP

Mr Brisley added: “You don’t know what the last 491 days have done to him, but it’s clearly had an incredible impact on him, and it was written all over his face.”

Armed and masked Hamas fighters. Pic: AP
Image:
Masked and armed Hamas fighters during the handover. Pic: AP

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “We will not accept the shocking scenes that we saw today.”

(L-R) Eli Sharabi, Ohad Ben Ami, and Or Levy. Pics: Bring Them Home Now
Image:
Eli Sharabi, Ohad Ben Ami, and Or Levy (L-R). Pics: Bring Them Home Now

Read more:
What’s in the ceasefire deal?
The Israel-Hamas war in numbers

In return for the captives’ release, 183 Palestinian prisoners were released – some of which were convicted of being involved in attacks that killed dozens of people.

A bus carrying several dozen Palestinian prisoners from Israel’s Ofer prison arrived in the occupied West Bank, where their families and friends were waiting.

A Palestinian prisoner is checked by medical personnel after being released from Israeli prison as a result of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Pic: AP
Image:
A Palestinian prisoner is checked by medical personnel after being released from an Israeli prison as a result of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Pic: AP

Sky News Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall said some of the prisoners also looked to be in a “very bad condition”.

And in a statement later on Saturday, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he was “dismayed to see his (Mr Sharabi’s) frail condition and the circumstances of his release”.

He added: “Having met his relatives I appreciate the deep pain they have endured and my thoughts are with them.

“We must continue to see all the hostages freed – these people were ripped away from their lives in the most brutal circumstances and held in appalling conditions.

The ceasefire must hold and all efforts need to focus on full implementation of the remaining phases. This includes the return of further hostages, the continued increase of aid into Gaza and securing lasting peace in the Middle East.”

Some 18 Israeli hostages and more than 550 Palestinian prisoners have been freed since the ceasefire began on 19 January.

Under the deal, 33 Israeli hostages are to be released in an initial stage in exchange for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Negotiations on a second phase of the deal began this week. It is aimed at returning the remaining hostages and agreeing to a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in preparation to end the war.

It is feared US President Donald Trump’s proposal to move the Palestinian population out of Gaza so the US could take over could complicate the second and more difficult phase of the ceasefire.

Hamas’s cross-border attack into Israel saw around 1,200 Israelis killed and around 250 people taken hostage.

Since then Israel’s war in Gaza has killed more than 47,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

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