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Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring counteroffensive is now in its 10th week, with limited evidence of any significant breakthrough of the formidable Russian defences.

President Zelenskyy remains laser-focused on his objective of liberating all Ukrainian territory, but if Ukraine’s military fails to gain momentum in the coming weeks, what next?

In September last year, Ukrainian forces mounted a surprise counteroffensive in northeast Ukraine and liberated 4,600 square miles (12,000 sq km) of territory in a matter of days.

President Zelenskyy argued that he could repeat that initiative on a larger scale with Western support – all he needed was the weapons to do the job.

The West responded by providing an extensive list of advanced military capability, including battle tanks, missiles systems and ammunition.

Read more: Ukraine war latest

However, this all took time to supply and to conduct the requisite training – time that Russia exploited to build extensive layered defensive systems.

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Ukraine started its spring offensive in early June, but despite some ferocious fighting the Russian fortifications still appear largely intact.

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Ukraine: How is the counteroffensive going?

Although casualty figures are always hard to verify, it is evident that this latest phase of the battle has proven highly attritional, and Ukraine’s offensive would expect to suffer significantly higher casualties, up to three times as many, as its enemy.

Ammunition and weapons are being consumed at a huge rate, and there is no simple way (for either side) to replenish stocks swiftly.

And, notwithstanding the various press releases highlighting drone attacks on Moscow, Black Sea Fleet vessels, ammunition dumps and small communities liberated, these are a sideshow to the main event.

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Ukraine uses drones to strike Russians

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The metrics of success for Ukraine are not shells fired, tanks destroyed, or enemy casualties achieved – these are simply the price of conflict, not the objective.

For President Zelenskyy the metric of success is simple – it is territory liberated.

Crucially, if Ukraine was able to push Russian forces back to the Crimean Peninsula, Zelenskyy has stated that this might create an opportunity for negotiation.

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Crimea: What happened on the bridge?

But, despite months of rising casualties, progress is slow – very slow.

Reports suggest that Ukraine has started to deploy its main reserve to assist the frontline fight – yet this reserve was intended to exploit any breakthrough to achieve momentum.

Behind the scenes, Western leaders are starting to review options.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg’s chief of staff suggested in a recent interview that Ukraine might need to cede territory to find a lasting peace.

Ukrainian service members of the 128th Separate Territorial Defence Brigade rest during military exercises at a training ground, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine August 16, 2023. REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi
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Ukrainian soldiers rest during military exercises in the Dnipro region

Although he later apologised, this comment likely reflected a growing concern among Western leaders that by continuing to support Ukraine they become complicit in perpetuating this brutal – yet static – conflict.

Ukraine’s determination to fight on is understandable – it is, after all, their war – but there is a developing discussion among Western leaders about the future, and what next?

The formal view appears to be that the West stands ready to support President Zelenskyy “whatever it takes”.

But weapons stockpiles are diminishing, and there are limited reserves left to continue supporting Ukraine, especially given conflicting domestic priorities.

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In hindsight, Ukraine probably could not have secured a better level of military, financial and economic support for this counteroffensive.

If that does not suffice, what will?

Notwithstanding the public show of NATO and Western unity in support of Ukraine, behind the scenes there is growing concern about how to draw this conflict to an end.

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Fierce fighting for Ukrainian village

If Ukraine’s military demonstrates that it has the potential to achieve Zelenskyy’s ambition of liberating occupied-Ukraine, it will likely galvanise Western commitment for the longer-term.

However, if Ukraine fails to gain momentum and continues to suffer huge casualties, its allies might feel obliged to explore options.

Such discussions will not be easy – Ukrainians alone understand the sacrifices, hardships and devastation that the Russian invasion has caused.

But, what price peace?

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Former Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene claims Epstein files ‘sent him over the edge’

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Former Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene claims Epstein files 'sent him over the edge'

It is an earthquake for the MAGA ecosystem.

Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene were a formidable alliance on the Republican Party’s hard-right flank.

For years, the congresswoman for Georgia embodied the combative, conspiracy-tinged politics that define Trump’s presidency.

She called him “the father of the America First movement,” campaigned to be his running mate, and was quick to defend him.

“David Cameron can kiss my ass,” she told Sky News when asked about the former UK Prime Minister’s concerns about US fading support for Ukraine.

Door-stepped by my colleague Martha Kelner, she said: “We don’t give a crap about your country or your reporting.

“The Trump administration is doing a great job and I stand by their statements,” she added.

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“I’m thankful to President Trump that he is leading us out of wars.”

Watch Sky’s Martha Kelner’s encounter with Taylor Greene from earlier this year…

But in recent months, she had expressed concerns about Trump’s involvement in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere.

It escalated when she stood with victims of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein to demand justice and joined Democrats in demanding a vote on the release of all files.

Just days ago, President Trump told reporters Taylor Greene had “lost her way”, but something triggered a war of words late on Friday.

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‘Shame on everyone that protected Epstein’

The president had taken questions on Air Force One, with two reporters citing Taylor Green’s demand that the files be released.

Moments later, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was withdrawing his endorsement of the congresswoman.

He branded her a “ranting lunatic”, “wacky Marjorie”, and said all she ever does is “COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN.”

Her reply came very quickly, in a post claiming she had sent the president text messages about Jeffrey Epstein.

“Apparently this is what sent him over the edge. The Epstein Files,” she posted.

Read more on Jeffrey Epstein:
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She accused him of “coming after” her to “scare all the other Republicans” before next week’s vote to release the Epstein files.

“It’s astonishing how hard he’s fighting to stop the Epstein files from coming out that he actually goes to this level,” she added.

For years, they were joined at the hip – Trump the movement’s figurehead, Taylor Greene its megaphone – but it has now descended into open hostility.

Epstein, the story that won’t go away, has just cost Trump one of his most loyal allies, and rocked the internal dynamics of his political movement.

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At least nine killed and 32 injured in Indian Kashmir police station explosion

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At least nine killed and 32 injured in Indian Kashmir police station explosion

At least nine people have been killed and 32 injured after a cache of confiscated explosives detonated inside a police station in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The accidental blast occurred late on Friday in the Nowgam area of Srinagar, as forensic and police personnel were evaluating the explosive material, according to police director-general Nalin Prabhat.

Most of the dead were officers and forensic staff, police said, adding that several of the injured remained in a critical condition.

The massive explosion tore through the police station, setting the building and several vehicles on fire.

“The intensity of the blast was such that some body parts were recovered from nearby houses, around 100-200m away from the police station,” a police source said.

A series of smaller successive blasts slowed rescue operations.

A police official lays flowers on a coffin at a ceremony for the victims. Pic: Reuters
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A police official lays flowers on a coffin at a ceremony for the victims. Pic: Reuters

The police station blast comes just days after a deadly car explosion in New Delhi on Monday, which killed at least eight people near the city’s historic Red Fort.

The car explosion occurred hours after police in Kashmir said they had dismantled a suspected militant cell operating from the region, arresting at least seven people, including two doctors from Indian cities.

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Police also seized a large quantity of bomb-making material in Faridabad, near New Delhi.

Indian security forces have conducted multiple raids across Kashmir during their investigation, questioning hundreds and detaining dozens.

Relatives protest following the blast. Pic: Reuters
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Relatives protest following the blast. Pic: Reuters

Authorities said DNA testing identified the car’s driver as a Kashmiri doctor, and government forces demolished his family home in Pulwama district on Thursday night.

In the past, security forces have demolished the homes of individuals they allege were linked to militants opposing Indian rule in Kashmir as a form of punishment.

India and Pakistan both claim all of Kashmir, though each controls only part of the territory.

Militants in the Indian-administered region have been fighting against New Delhi since 1989, with India labeling it Pakistan-backed terrorism.

Pakistan denies the claim, saying that many Kashmiris view it as a legitimate struggle for independence.

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Donald Trump withdraws support for Marjorie Taylor Greene after she calls for Epstein files to be released

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Donald Trump withdraws support for Marjorie Taylor Greene after she calls for Epstein files to be released

Donald Trump has withdrawn support for Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene – which she claims is over her support for releasing files about Jeffrey Epstein.

In comments made on Truth Social, Mr Trump said he would support any challenger who wants to take Ms Greene’s seat in Georgia.

It comes after weeks of the MAGA ally breaking ranks from the president – and according to a post on X after his withdrawal, she believes it’s over a possible vote on releasing all of the Epstein files.

Read more: Marjorie Taylor Greene – the MAGA ally known for embracing conspiracies and insulting journalists

After the US government shutdown ended, a petition to vote on the full release of the files about disgraced pedophile financier Epstein received enough signatures – including Ms Greene’s – to bring it to a vote in the House of Representatives.

While such a vote does not yet have a date, Mr Trump has called the files a “hoax” and accused the Democrats of using them “to try and deflect from their disastrous SHUTDOWN”.

Earlier this week, thousands of documents from Epstein were released, which reference Mr Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Peter Mandelson, among others.

Read more: What do Epstein documents say about Trump, Andrew and Mandelson?

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The new Epstein files: The key takeaways

Trump attacks ‘Wacky’ Majorie

In his post on Truth Social overnight, Mr Trump said: “all I see “Wacky” Marjorie do is COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN!

“It seemed to all begin when I sent her a Poll stating that she should not run for Senator, or Governor, she was at 12%, and didn’t have a chance (unless, of course, she had my Endorsement – which she wasn’t about to get!).”

The president went on to claim “she has told many people that she is upset that I don’t return her phone calls anymore”, before adding: “I can’t take a ranting Lunatic’s call every day.

“I understand that wonderful, Conservative people are thinking about primarying Marjorie in her District of Georgia, that they too are fed up with her and her antics and, if the right person runs, they will have my Complete and Unyielding Support.”

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Will new Epstein emails hurt Trump?

Greene: Trump’s fight to stop files ‘astonishing’

Around an hour later, Ms Greene responded on X to say “President Trump just attacked me and lied about me”, and shared text messages to him and a White House aide about releasing information on the deceased pedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

“Of course he’s coming after me hard to make an example to scare all the other Republicans before next weeks vote to release the Epstein files,” she added on social media.

“It’s astonishing really how hard he’s fighting to stop the Epstein files from coming out that he actually goes to this level.”

Read more: Why this is dangerous terrain for Trump

Marjorie Taylor Greene was an ardent supporter of MAGA and became a Republican Congresswoman in 2021. File pic: AP
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Marjorie Taylor Greene was an ardent supporter of MAGA and became a Republican Congresswoman in 2021. File pic: AP

She then said “most Americans wish he would fight this hard to help the forgotten men and women of America… that’s what I voted for”.

“I have supported President Trump with too much of my precious time, too much of my own money, and fought harder for him even when almost all other Republicans turned their back and denounced him,” she added.

“But I don’t worship or serve Donald Trump… I remain the same today as I’ve always been and I will continue to pray this administration will be successful because the American people desperately deserve what they voted for.”

Watch Sky’s Martha Kelner’s encounter with Greene from earlier this year…

Earlier this week, Mr Trump accused the MAGA loyalist of “catering to the other side” after she criticised his focus on foreign policy, which she described as “America Last”.

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Trump rebukes MAGA ally over foreign policy

Epstein took his own life in prison in 2019 while awaiting a trial for sex trafficking charges and was accused of running a “vast network” of underage girls for sex. He pleaded not guilty.

Following a conviction for soliciting prostitution from a minor in 2008, he was registered as a sex offender.

It comes after Democrats on the House Oversight Committee published several emails, which they said “raises questions about Trump and Epstein’s relationship, Trump’s knowledge of Epstein’s crimes”, and the president’s relationship to Epstein’s victims.

Mr Trump has consistently denied knowledge of Epstein’s crimes and called claims linking him to the financier a “hoax”.

Read more on Jeffrey Epstein:
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What Epstein’s right-hand woman said about Trump and Andrew

The White House also said the “selectively leaked emails” were an attempt to “create a fake narrative to smear President Trump”.

Republicans retaliated by releasing more than 20,000 pages from Epstein’s files and accusing Democrats of “cherry-picking” their documents.

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