Caleb Williams, Brock Bowers, Marvin Harrison Jr. lead college football’s top 100 players for 2023
Everyone wants to be known as the best at something. Anything. Being the best grill master at your house. Being the best among your friends at singing Taylor Swift karaoke at 2 a.m. Being the best player in all of college football. And when it comes to us who cover college football for a living, we want to be the best at determining who those best players are!
It was with that goal in mind that we here in the college sports corner of ESPN.com once again spent a large chunk of our summer discussing, debating, voting and, in this age of ever-evolving AI, even leaning on an algorithm to help us determine the best of the college football best. And as far as you know, none of us did that while standing over the grill singing Taylor Swift karaoke at 2 a.m.
So, as the season bears down on us like Washington’s Bralen Trice chasing Caleb Williams, you decide whether we are the best or the worst at separating the truly best from the merely great as you read our 2023 ESPN Preseason Top 100 College Football Player Rankings.
— Ryan McGee
Methodology: Voters were presented with a series of one-on-one votes. For example, “Who should be ranked higher for the 2023 season: Blake Corum or Caleb Williams?” Think of it as an Oklahoma drill of statistical reasoning. More than 10,000 votes later, these were the results.
Jump to: 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | 81-90 | 91-100
QB, USC, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 52 TDs (42 pass, 10 rush), 4,537 yards
2022 end-of-season ranking: 1
In his first year at USC and second year in college, Williams took the sport by storm. He threw for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy. He draws Patrick Mahomes comparisons and has more or less secured the No. 1 overall draft pick for next season barring some unforeseen circumstances. What can he do for an encore?
TE, Georgia, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 790 rec yards, 9 total TDs
2022 ranking: 14
Bowers has been a fixture at tight end since the day he arrived on Georgia’s campus. He catches everything thrown his way, blocks with the same efficiency and runs like a running back both after the catch and when he’s taking a handoff. He has scored 24 touchdowns in his first two seasons (20 receiving and four rushing).
WR, Ohio State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,263 yards, 14 TDs
2022 ranking: 9
Harrison was an unanimous All-American in 2022 — Ohio State’s first — and was named the Big Ten’s Wide Receiver of the Year. He caught 77 passes for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns. He went over the 100-yard receiving mark in seven games last season.
LB, LSU, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 8.5 sacks, 3 FF, 1 INT
2022 ranking: 54
Perkins — who can play linebacker or edge rusher — is an impact defender wherever he lines up. He was learning the ropes in the SEC a year ago as a true freshman but still led LSU in tackles for loss (13), sacks (7.5 sacks), quarterback hurries (14) and forced fumbles (three).
QB, North Carolina, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 38 TDs, 4,321 passing yards
2022 ranking: 18
A year ago, Maye entered fall camp unsure whether he would land UNC’s starting job. This year, he opens the season as one of the top contenders for the Heisman Trophy. In between, he threw for 4,321 yards, ran for 698 more, accounted for 45 touchdowns and led North Carolina to an ACC Coastal Division title.
QB, Washington, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 31 TDs, 4,641 yards
2022 ranking: 17
After transferring to Washington from Indiana to be reunited with coach Kalen DeBoer, the former Hoosiers offensive coordinator, Penix was a revelation in Seattle. He led FBS in passing yards per game (357), tossed 21 touchdown passes and turned down the opportunity to enter the NFL draft to return to UW.
RB, Michigan, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 18 TDs, 1,463 rush yards
2022 ranking: 10
Corum, a driving force for Michigan’s drive to a second straight Big Ten title and CFP berth, was a Doak Walker finalist, unanimous All-American and Big Ten Running Back of the Year in 2022 (1,463 rushing yards and 18 TDs). He had eight straight 100-yard rushing games from Sept. 24 through Nov. 19 last season.
QB, Florida State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 32 total TDs (24 pass, 7 rush, 1 rec)
2022 ranking: 29
Three years ago, Travis approached Florida State’s new coaching staff with an offer to swap positions to tailback or receiver. Mike Norvell & Co. declined. Their decision was wise. Last year, Travis blossomed into one of the most prolific QBs in the nation, accounting for more than 3,600 yards of offense, 32 touchdowns and a Total QBR of 85.8, seventh best nationally.
DL, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 9 sacks, 22 solo tackles
Preseason ranking: 56
In his first season playing at the FBS level, Verse — an Albany transfer — proved to be among the top pass-rushers in the country. Despite battling injuries most of the year, Verse finished with 9 sacks, 17 tackles for loss and 31 QB pressures. His pressure rate of 17.1% ranked fourth among FBS D-linemen.
DE/Edge, Georgia, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 31 QB pressures, 6.5 TFLs
2022 rankings: NR
Williams was one of the top freshman defenders in college football last season. He tied Jalen Carter with a team-leading 31 quarterback hurries and played especially well in the College Football Playoff for the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs. His six sacks tied for the national lead among true freshmen.
OL, Notre Dame, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1 sack allowed, 3 pressures allowed
2022 ranking: 19
He’s the latest in Notre Dame’s run of premier offensive linemen and projects as an NFL first-round draft pick in 2024 who could possibly go in the top 10. The 6-foot-8, 322-pound Alt earned first-team AP All-America honors in 2022 and enters his third season with 21 consecutive starts. Alt will protect the blind side of new quarterback Sam Hartman.
DB, Alabama, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 15 PBUs, first-team All-SEC honors
2022 ranking: 64
McKinstry has been a starter in Alabama’s secondary since the second game of his college career. He provides the kind of skill and experience that Nick Saban has had at cornerback on some of his more dominant defenses. McKinstry doubles as one of college football’s most dangerous punt returners.
WR, Ohio State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,151 yards, 10 TDs
2022 ranking: 32
Egbuka was a Paul Hornung finalist last season after hauling in 74 receptions for 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns. A second-team All-Big Ten pick, he finished third in the conference in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Along with Harrison, Egbuka will cause opposing defenses fits as the Buckeyes’ offense figures to keep humming along.
QB, Oregon, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 285.1 QBR, 3,593 yards, 29 TD passes
2022 ranking: 46
Nix’s change of scenery paid off as he moved from Auburn to Eugene and seemed to fit in the Ducks’ offense well. His 2022 campaign resulted in 3,593 yards, 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. While there was plenty of talk about him using last year as a launching pad to the NFL, Nix decided to run it back for one more year.
QB, LSU, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,798 total yards, 28 total TDs
2022 ranking: 97
Daniels blossomed into one of the nation’s best dual threats at quarterback last season. The 6-4, 210-pound senior was the only FBS player to pass for more than 2,900 yards (2,913) and rush for more than 800 yards (885) in leading the Tigers to the SEC championship game. His 11 rushing touchdowns were a career high after he played his first three seasons at Arizona State.
OL, Penn State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: didn’t allow 1 sack in 8 games started
2022 ranking: 98
Fashanu passed up potentially being a first-round NFL draft selection to return for another season. He was a big part of an offensive line that allowed Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to enjoy such early success last season. The Nittany Lions averaged 181.1 yards on the ground — fourth in the Big Ten.
RB, Michigan, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 991 rushing yards and 7 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Edwards had 991 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. He established a career-high 216 rushing yards in Michigan’s 45-23 victory at Ohio State last year. He rushed for over 100 yards five times last season.
RB, Arkansas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,443 yards, 10 TDs
2022 ranking: 84
Sanders, aka Rocket, was the main cog last season in an Arkansas running game that finished seventh nationally (236.5 yards per game). Not only does Sanders carve up defenses as a runner, he’s also an excellent receiver. He’s the only returning FBS player who rushed for more than 1,400 yards (1,443) and had more than 250 receiving yards (271).
OL, Michigan, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 0.5% pressure pct allowed; 4th in Big Ten
2022 rankings: NR
A member of Michigan’s offensive line that won a second straight Joe Moore Award (best offensive line in the country), Zinter was a consensus first-team All-Big Ten selection in 2022. The Wolverines rushed for 238.9 yards per game, fifth in the FBS.
WR, Washington, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 75 catches, 1,145 yards, 7 TDs
2022 rankings: NR
Odunze led the Pac-12 with 1,145 receiving yards and ranked second in receptions per game on his way to 75 on the season. His receiving total ranks No. 5 in school history, and he returns as part of one of the deepest receiving corps in the country.
LB, Clemson, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 2 INTs, 6.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL, 5 PBU, 4 QBH
2022 ranking: NR
Trotter is all business, head coach Dabo Swinney said, and business was good in 2022. He led the Tigers with 89 tackles (50 solo) to go with 6.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL, 5 PBUs and 4 QB hurries. Pro Football Focus graded Trotter as the ACC’s top-graded linebacker and the second best among all returning Power 5 LBs.
RB, Ole Miss, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 16 TDs, 1,567 yards
2022 ranking: 50
The only freshman running back to rush for more yards in the SEC than Judkins a year ago was Herschel Walker in 1980. Judkins is coming off a 1,567-yard season and had eight 100-yard games to go along with 16 rushing touchdowns. He’s a breakaway threat and also a tough, physical runner between the tackles.
QB, Utah, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 83.1 QBR, 3,034 yards, 26 TDs
2022 ranking: 53
Rising’s résumé is not as stellar from a statistical standpoint as those of some of his Pac-12 peers, but his achievements rule them all. After leading the Utes to a Pac-12 title in 2021, he made another leap last year, jumping over 3,000 passing yards and adding 26 touchdowns on his way to a second straight Pac-12 championship.
LB, Georgia, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: Led Georgia with 9 TFLs, 2nd with 4 sacks
2022 ranking: 76
When you’re a Butkus Award finalist during your first full season as a starter, you’re something special. Such was the case with Dumas-Johnson in his sophomore year, tallying 70 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and 26 quarterback hurries.
QB, Notre Dame, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 38 TDs, 3,701 yards
2022 ranking: 59
Arguably the biggest prize of the quarterback portal, Hartman set the ACC’s career touchdown passes record (110) and brings 12,967 career passing yards and 21 games of 300 yards or more from Wake Forest. He thrived in an RPO-based offense and must adjust to a more traditional system at Notre Dame, which will lean on his experience, production and accuracy.
RB, Clemson, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,182 yards, 15 TDs
2022 ranking: 40
How big was Shipley’s impact last season? He made the 2022 All-ACC team three times — as a tailback, all-purpose player and return man. Shipley ran for 1,182 yards, caught 38 balls for 242 more yards and had 324 yards in kickoff returns, scoring 15 times total. With new OC Garrett Riley calling plays in 2023, he could be in for even bigger things.
G, Kansas State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: Didn’t allow a sack
2022 ranking: NR
Beebe is one of the most talented offensive linemen in the nation. After getting first-team All-Big 12 honors at left tackle in 2021, he moved inside to left guard and was named the Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year by the league’s coaches, and he earned a second consecutive All-Big 12 first-team selection.
OLB, Alabama, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 4 sacks, 37 total tackles
2022 ranking: NR
Now that Will Anderson Jr. is off to the NFL, Turner steps in as the Crimson Tide’s top pass-rusher. He’s a menace to opposing offensive tackles with his speed and will be looking to recapture some of the same numbers he put up as a freshman, when he recorded 10 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks.
RB, Penn State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 1,061 yards, 12 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Singleton led the Penn State offense with 1,061 yards and 12 touchdowns. He ran for at least 100 yards in four games, paced by a 179-yard effort in a convincing 46-10 win over Ohio, and had five multi-touchdown games.
QB, Arkansas, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 2,648 yards, 24 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Injuries curtailed an otherwise solid junior season in which Jefferson passed for 2,648 yards and 24 touchdowns, and rushed for 640 yards and nine touchdowns. At 6-3 and 247 pounds, Jefferson can be one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country when healthy.
RB, Wisconsin, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,242 yards, 11 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Allen ran for 1,242 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as he came close to matching his numbers from his breakout freshman season in 2021. Those numbers placed him fourth in yards and fifth in touchdowns, respectively, in the conference. He had seven 100-yard rushing games in 2022, paced by 165 yards in a 52-21 loss at Ohio State on Sept. 24. He led the Badgers in rushing 10 times.
QB, UTSA, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 32 TDs, 4,059 yards
2022 ranking: 57
The left-hander has been the most significant player in UTSA’s rise to national prominence. Harris enters his seventh year in the program and holds more than 30 team records, including career passing yards (9,356), passing touchdowns (74) and total offense (11,178 yards). He’s 31-11 as UTSA’s starter and won Conference USA MVP honors in 2022.
RB, Ohio State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: In 8 games, ran for 571 yards and 6 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Henderson battled injuries after a stellar freshman season. He played in just eight games last year but rushed for over 100 yards in victories over Wisconsin (121 yards) and Michigan State (118 yards). He ran for 571 yards and six touchdowns this past fall after churning out 1,248 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2021.
LB, Clemson, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 5.5 sacks, 10.5 TFL, 8 PBU, 6 QBH, 2 FF
2022 ranking: NR
Dabo Swinney calls Carter one of the most dynamic players he’s coached — a guy who’s dominant at linebacker but could easily play safety, corner, edge rusher or even tailback, Swinney said. The numbers back up the claim. Carter finished 2022 with 73 tackles (10 for a loss), 5.5 sacks, 2 picks, 2 forced fumbles, 7 pass breakups and 25 QB pressures. No other FBS player has done all that in the same season in the past five years.
DL, Illinois, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 59 tackles (28 solo), 14 TFLs, 5.5 sacks
2022 ranking: NR
Newton’s 59 tackles (28 solo) placed him tied for third with safety Sydney Brown on Illinois’ defense last year. Newton’s 14 tackles for loss and 5½ sacks led the team, which had the country’s top scoring defense (12.3 PPG). He was an All-Big Ten first-team pick.
QB, Mississippi State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,974 yards, 35 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The most accomplished passer in the SEC, Rogers is already the only quarterback in SEC history with over 1,000 career completions. With 32 consecutive starts, he owns school career records for passing yards (10,689) and passing touchdowns (82).
WR, LSU, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 72 catches, 1,017 yards, 3 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The Tigers needed an alpha in the receiver room, and Nabers stepped into that role during the postseason with a combined 291 yards and two touchdowns against Georgia in the SEC championship game and Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Quarterback Jayden Daniels said of Nabers, “If it’s man coverage and I give him an opportunity to make a play, he’ll probably come down with the football.”
WR, Arizona, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 85 catches, 1,034 yards, 7 TDs
Preseason ranking: 80
The Arizona native has been the Wildcats’ model of consistency the past few seasons. In spite of whichever quarterback has been throwing to him, Cowing now has two seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He’s back this year for his senior season right as Arizona looks more competent than ever under Jedd Fisch and returning quarterback Jayden de Laura.
QB, Michigan, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 2,719 passing yards, 22 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
McCarthy was a Davey O’Brien semifinalist in 2022 with 2,719 passing yards and 22 passing TDs, helping pilot Michigan to a second straight College Football Playoff appearance. He added 306 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. He threw for a career-high 343 yards in the Wolverines’ loss to TCU in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.
DB, Georgia, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 2 INTs, 7 PBUs
2022 ranking: 39
Starks is one half of a talented safety combo at Georgia along with Javon Bullard. Last season as a freshman, Starks led all Georgia defenders with 847 snaps played and finished third on the team with 68 total tackles while starting in all 15 games. His speed and versatility make him a perfect fit in Kirby Smart’s system.
LB, Georgia, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 8 TFLs, 76 tackles
2022 ranking: NR
The tandem of Mondon and Jamon Dumas-Johnson gives the Bulldogs arguably the best inside linebacker corps in the country. Despite missing two games, Mondon led the team with 76 total stops last season, not to mention his 23 quarterback hurries.
C, Georgia, junior
Notable 2022 stats: Led all SEC centers with 944 snaps played
2022 ranking: NR
By all accounts, the 6-4, 310-pound senior should be in the NFL right now. He allowed only one sack the past two seasons, so he has already proven himself. But he put the draft on hold to come back for another season, which is good news for the Bulldogs and their quest for a three-peat.
OL, Boston College, senior
Notable 2021 stats: 0 sacks allowed in 314 pass rush snaps
2022 ranking: NR
A projected first-round pick, Mahogany missed all of last season with a knee injury but says he is much better than at any other point in his career. That is good news for a Boston College offensive line that struggled without him a year ago. With a healthy Mahogany back, expect him to continue to improve on his NFL draft stock and improve the overall BC line, too.
QB, Kansas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 2,014 yards, 18 TDs in 9 games
2022 ranking: NR
In nine games in 2022, Daniels completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,014 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. He also had 425 yards rushing and seven touchdowns. After being a Heisman candidate the first five weeks of the season, he suffered an injury against TCU that halted those aspirations. But expect him to be one of the best in the nation again in 2023.
CB, Penn State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 3 INTs, 30 tackles (23 solo), 18 PBUs
2022 ranking: NR
King’s three interceptions put him second on the team last year, behind safety Ji’Ayir Brown (four). He started nine games in 2022, recording 30 tackles (23 solo) and 18 PBUs. King’s 30 tackles were tied for eighth on the team. The Nittany Lions’ pass defense (212.8 YPG) ranked ninth in the Big Ten last season.
CB, Iowa, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 5 INTs,75 tackles (19 solo)
2022 ranking: NR
DeJean established a new program single-season record by taking three interceptions to the house. All told, he had a team-leading five interceptions on the year to go along with 75 tackles (19 solo), third on the Hawkeyes’ defense. He was the 2022 TransPerfect Music City Bowl MVP as Iowa posted a 21-0 shutout.
LB, Ohio State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 12 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT
2022 ranking: 71
Eichenberg led the Buckeyes’ defense with 120 tackles and 12 tackles for loss. His 77 solo tackles paced the Big Ten and ranked fifth nationally. He was a first-team All-Big Ten selection while also being named a Lott IMPACT finalist and Butkus Award semifinalist.
WR, Washington, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 79 catches, 1,098 yards, 9 receiving TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Like his fellow Huskies’ wideout Rome Odunze, McMillan was one of the great beneficiaries of the arrival of head coach Kalen DeBoer and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. As Washington’s offense turned into a juggernaut, McMillan had a breakout year that featured a 1,089-yard, nine-touchdown season for the rising senior.
LB, UCLA, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 10.5 sacks, 12.5 TFLs, 3 FF
2022 ranking: 86
After sitting out two seasons, Latu transferred to UCLA from Washington and made an immediate impact. He led the Bruins with 12.5 tackles for loss, including 10.5 sacks. He was named Pac-12 Player of the Week after a three-sack performance against Colorado and was a first-team All-Pac-12 selection.
RB, Ohio State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 825 rushing yards, 14 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
In 2022, Williams made the All-Big Ten third team after rushing for 825 yards and 14 touchdowns, and he led the Buckeyes in both of those categories. He ran for a career-high 189 yards and five touchdowns in Ohio State’s 49-10 victory over Rutgers, and he eclipsed the 100-yard mark four times last season.
LB, Oklahoma, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 125 tackles,10.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 2 INTs
2022 ranking:
A player who will be integral on Brent Venables’ second-year defense, Stutsman led the Big 12 last season with 125 total tackles with an average of 9.6 tackles per game. Stutsman also totaled 10.5 tackles for loss, which was good for second on the team, as well as three sacks and two interceptions.
WR, USC, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 66 catches, 1,1105 yards, 6 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
A first-team All-Pac-12 selection in 2022, Singer caught 66 passes for 1,105 yards and six touchdowns and was one of two 1,000-yard receivers for the Wildcats, along with Jacob Cowing.
QB, Coastal Carolina, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 2,700 yards, 24 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Since 2020, McCall ranks third among FBS quarterbacks in wins (28), sixth in passing touchdowns (77) and seventh in total QBR (82.9). He has thrown only eight interceptions on 788 pass attempts during the span. The three-time Sun Belt Player of the Year must adjust to a new offense under coach Tim Beck, but his efficiency stands out.
OL, Alabama, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1.2% pressure pct allowed, 2nd among SEC RTs
2022 ranking: NR
According to Pro Football Focus, Latham didn’t allow a single sack while pass-blocking last season. If he can pick up the pace as a run blocker — and there’s no reason to think he can’t with 29 knockdown blocks last season — he could play his way into being a top NFL draft pick in 2024.
CB, Michigan, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 3 INT, 3 PD, 25 solo tackles
2022 ranking: NR
Johnson finished second on the Wolverines with three interceptions. He had a career-high eight tackles in Michigan’s decisive 45-23 victory at Ohio State while picking off two passes in a 43-22 victory over Purdue as the program claimed a second straight Big Ten title. Johnson was part of a secondary that ended the year sixth in the Big Ten in passing defense (191.8 YPG).
LB, Michigan, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 101 tackles (42 solo)
2022 ranking: NR
Colson recorded 101 tackles (42 solo) to lead a Wolverines’ defense that finished third in the country in rushing defense (85.2 YPG) and fifth in the FBS in scoring defense (13.4 PPG). He had double-digit tackles in four games last year, paced by 15 in a 43-22 victory over Purdue in the Big Ten championship.
RB, Marshall, sophomore
Notable 2021 stats: 1,401 yards, 23 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
He tied for the FBS rushing touchdowns lead with 23 in 2021, to go along with 1,401 yards on 250 carries. A knee injury cost Ali the first 10 games last season, although he returned down the stretch and won Myrtle Beach Bowl MVP honors after a 92-yard effort. He projects as the centerpiece for Marshall’s offense under coach Charles Huff.
S, Miami, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 6 INT, 6 PBU, 59 tackles, 1 FF
2022 ranking: NR
Kinchens had a breakout season in 2022, winning All-ACC honors after starting all 12 games. He finished with a team-high six interceptions, and he also led the Hurricanes with 59 total tackles. He has a sense for where the ball will be at all times, and his presence in the secondary is one that forces opposing offenses to try and scheme around him.
WR, Texas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 60 catches for 760 yards, 9 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Worthy comes into the 2023 season with 21 career touchdown receptions, good for third all-time in Texas Football history. In 13 games last season, he had 60 receptions for 760 yards and nine touchdowns. He was named to the Biletnikoff Award watch list, and will certainly compete for the award if Quinn Ewers and Texas take the leap many expect.
QB, Oklahoma, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,168 yards, 25 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The Big 12’s Offensive Newcomer of the Year started 12 games in 2022, completing 62.7% of his passes for 3,168 yards with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He also had six rushing touchdowns, a career high. Per Oklahoma, his 95 touchdown passes are the second most in the country over the last four years despite missing 11 games due to injury.
WR, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 43 catches, 897 yards, 5 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
There is no question the 6-7 Wilson is an automatic matchup advantage for the Seminoles — he just needed more game reps and experience to put everything together. What he showed last season — 43 receptions for 897 yards and five touchdowns — is only a start. If his 202-yard performance against Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl is any indication, bigger things are in store for 2023.
DL, Washington, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 10 sacks, 39 tackles
2022 ranking: NR
Trice’s 10 sacks this past season were good enough to put him in the top 10 players in the country in the statistic. His season, which also included 39 tackles, looked to be good enough to vault him to the NFL, but Trice chose to come back to Seattle for another season. His prediction for his performance this upcoming season? Twenty sacks.
S, USC, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 5 INTs, 6 PBUs
2022 ranking: NR
Bullock earned some All-American recognition in 2022 during his breakout sophomore season with the Trojans, after which he was named second-team All-Pac-12. His five interceptions led the team and ranked No. 11 in the country.
LB, North Carolina, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 12 TFLs, 6 PBUs, 4 QBHs, 3 FF, 2 INTs
2022 ranking: NR
The North Carolina defense may have struggled last season, but Gray was the one consistent force the unit had across the board. In fact, he was so good and reliable, he rarely came off the field for the Tar Heels. Gray had 145 tackles — tops among all Power 5 players — a sack, 12 tackles for loss, two interceptions and three forced fumbles a year ago en route to All-ACC honors. He is back on the preseason All-ACC list with more to come.
CB, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 13 PBUs, 45.2% completions, 0 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Cypress was one of the most heralded transfers this past season, leaving Virginia for Florida State and immediately providing a boost to the Seminoles secondary. A preseason All-ACC choice, he led the country with an average of 1.6 pass breakups per game last year with the Cavaliers — ranking No. 1 in the ACC and ninth nationally with 14 total pass breakups.
DT, Clemson, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 5.5 sacks, 9.5 TFLs, 9 QBHs
2022 ranking: NR
When Davis is healthy, he is the best interior defensive lineman in the ACC. His decision to return to Clemson for one more year gives the Tigers defensive front a huge advantage. The three-time All-ACC selection had 9.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks and 15 quarterback pressures a year ago, but he has not played a complete season since 2019. That has still not stopped him from dominating.
WR, Texas A&M, senior
Notable 2021 stats: 509 yards, 6 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Arguably the biggest win of the offseason for the Aggies was getting Smith to return for his senior season. He’s as dynamic a playmaker as anyone in the SEC, whether he’s lining up at receiver, running back or returning kicks and punts. In four seasons, he’s amassed 2,804 yards from scrimmage.
RB, Penn State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 867 yards, 10 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Allen rushed for 867 yards and 10 touchdowns as a freshman last fall, playing in all 13 games and forming a productive 1-2 punch with Nicholas Singleton. Allen ran for a career-high 117 yards in a 55-10 victory at Rutgers on Nov. 19. His three touchdowns against Indiana helped lead the way to a 45-14 road victory on Nov. 5.
RB, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 990 rush yards, 9 rush TD, 114 rec. yards
2022 ranking: NR
Since Benson arrived at Florida State from Oregon, he has been nothing but productive — helping lead the Seminoles to a top 15 rushing offense a year ago. Benson started six games in 2022 and ran for 990 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 13 passes for 144 yards. Much more is expected this season, as Benson is a preseason All-ACC choice.
All purpose, Colorado, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 19 tackles, 8 PBUs, 2 INTs
2022 ranking: NR
The two-way threat came with coach Deion Sanders to Colorado from Jackson State and is expected to play much more on offense than he did as a freshman last year. He made a splash during recruiting when he signed with Jackson State as a five-star cornerback and will now test his game at a higher level.
OG, Alabama, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 150 snaps at both guard spots
2022 ranking: NR
With new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees onboard, Alabama will lean even more on its offensive line in 2023, and Booker is a big reason why. He has a chance to develop into one of the most dominant interior offensive linemen in the country with his blend of size, power and agility. The 6-5, 335-pound Booker will line up at right guard beside his old IMG Academy teammate JC Latham at right tackle, a combo Latham said would be “dangerous.”
S, TCU, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 12 PBUs, 3 INTs
2022 ranking: NR
The Louisiana-Monroe transfer was named first-team All-Big 12 alongside Thorpe Award winner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. He had 35 tackles on the season with 15 pass breakups and added three interceptions, including one he returned 57 yards for a touchdown against Iowa State. He enters his final season with 27 career pass breakups.
DL, Penn State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 26 tackles (19 solo), 10 TFLs, 5.5 sacks
2022 ranking: NR
Robinson earned the team’s defensive player of the week award three times. He recorded 26 tackles (19 solo) with 10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. His 5½ sacks were tied for seventh-most in the Big Ten while his 10 tackles for loss were 15th in the conference.
LB, TCU, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 9.5 TFLs
2022 ranking: NR
After transferring from Navy, the linebacker showed why Sonny Dykes wanted him in Fort Worth. He led TCU with 87 tackles, the most by a Horned Frog since Garret Wallow had 90 in 2020, according to the school. It earned him Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year honors, as well as second-team All-Big 12.
LB, Oklahoma State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 5 sacks, 12 QBH
2022 ranking: NR
A converted defensive end, Oliver led Oklahoma State in sacks in each of the past two seasons (11.5 and 5.5); led the team in quarterback hurries with 12 last season; led the Big 12 in sacks in 2021 and has earned second-team All-Big 12 honors in each of the past two seasons.
QB, Tennessee, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 971 yards, 10 TDs in 8 games
2022 ranking: NR
Milton served as Hendon Hooker’s backup the past two seasons and stepped in after Hooker was injured late last season. Milton, who has one of the strongest arms in college football, tied a career high with three touchdown passes and was named MVP in the Vols’ 31-14 Orange Bowl victory over Clemson to close the 2022 season. The 6-5, 245-pound redshirt senior started his career at Michigan before transferring to Tennessee. He threw 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions a year ago.
RB, Oregon, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,058 yards rushing, 5 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
After arriving from Minnesota via the transfer portal last year, Irving settled in nicely in the Ducks’ offense, averaging 6.8 yards per carry on his way to a 1,000-yard season and five touchdowns as well as 299 receiving yards. His performance was good enough to make him the likely top back for Dan Lanning’s team heading into this season.
RB, Kansas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,090 yards, 9 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The Big 12’s only returning 1,000-yard rusher, Neal amassed 1,090 yards and nine touchdowns as a sophomore. He became the first KU player ever to have 200 yards rushing and 100 receiving against Oklahoma State when he ran for 224 yards and a TD on 6.1 yards per carry and added 110 yards on six receptions.
DT, LSU, sophomore
Notable 2021 stats: 4 sacks, 13 solo tackles
2022 ranking: NR
The 6-6, 315-pound Smith returns as one of the interior anchors of LSU’s defensive line. He was primed for a big season a year ago, but he injured his knee in the first quarter of the opener against Florida State and missed the remainder of the season. Smith was a Freshman All-America selection in 2021 after recording five tackles for loss, including four sacks. Even as a freshman, he was the target of frequent double teams.
TE, Utah, senior
Notable 2021 stats: 611 receiving yards, 7 total TDs
2022 ranking: NR
A season-ending injury ended what was shaping up to an outstanding senior year in 2022 after just four games. Kuithe has been named second-team All-Pac-12 three times, has 148 career receptions and had 32 straight games with a catch.
LB, NC State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 12.5 TFLs, 45 sacks, 3 PBUs, 1 INT
2022 ranking: NR
When Wilson decided to return to the Wolfpack for one more season, he gave NC State a huge boost to a linebacker group that is replacing two long-time starters. His veteran presence alone will be a big advantage. Last season, Wilson had 83 tackles to rank third on the team and was pivotal in helping the Wolfpack rank among the best run defenses in the ACC.
LB, Penn State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 56 tackles, 6.5 sacks
2022 ranking: NR
Carter was second on the Nittany Lions in tackles with 56 last season while leading the way with his 6½ sacks. On the way toward earning second team All-Big Ten recognition, he became the eighth linebacker in school history to record at least 10 tackles for loss and six sacks in a season.
S, Texas, senior
Notable 2020 stats: 95 tackles, 2 FF, 3 INTs
2022 ranking: NR
An Arkansas transfer, Catalon suffered a season-ending injury in the opener against Cincinnati last year after making eight tackles in the game. In 2021, he started the first six games, making 46 tackles, before suffering another season-ending injury. He was a breakout star and a freshman All-American in 2020 with 99 tackles, three interceptions and four passes broken up.
QB, Western Kentucky, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 48 total TDs, 4,744 yards (most in FBS)
2022 ranking: NR
A success story for the portal era, Reed’s career includes a Division II national title (West Florida in 2019) and the FBS passing yards title last season (4,746 yards). Reed eclipsed 400 yards four times, including 497 in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. He enters his final season with 12,248 passing yards, 118 career touchdowns and, most importantly, 31 career wins.
DL, Ohio State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 28 tackles, 10.5 TFLs
2022 ranking: NR
Tuimoloau earned first-team All-Big Ten recognition in 2022 after recording 28 tackles with 10.5 tackles for loss. He dominated in Ohio State’s 44-31 victory at Penn State after compiling six tackles, three tackles for loss, two sacks, two interceptions, forcing one fumble and recovering another fumble.
WR, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 58 catches, 798 yards, 7 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Florida State coach Mike Norvell has been praised for his use of the transfer portal, and Coleman is another key addition who is expected to boost the wide receiver group. With Johnny Wilson (6-7), the 6-4 Coleman can also be expected to be a big-play receiver. Last year at Michigan State, Coleman had 58 catches for 798 yards and seven touchdowns — and he ranked fourth in the Big Ten with 15 catches of at least 20 yards.
QB, Kansas State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,633 yards, 15 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Howard had six starts over the second half of last season, including the Wildcats’ Big 12 Championship win over TCU. He recorded multiple touchdown passes in six straight games, the longest streak ever in a single season at Kansas State. The 6-5 senior comes into the 2023 season just about to enter the top 10 in school history in many statistical categories, if he’s not already in them.
LB, Texas, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 4 INTs, 119 tackles, 10 TFLs
2022 ranking: NR
Last season, Ford finished with a career-high 119 tackles, which was also the most for a Texas linebacker in almost 10 years. In addition, he had 10 tackles for loss and is sure to vie for the Big 12 defensive player of the year title after falling just short of it in 2022.
OL, Utah, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 894 snaps, 2nd-most among Pac-12 RTs
2022 ranking: NR
A three-time All-Pac-12 honoree, Laumea was a first-team selection in 2022 after making 14 starts, including 13 at right tackle. He anchored a line that helped the Utes rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rushing.
LT, Duke, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 2 sacks allowed on 465 pass rush snaps
2022 ranking: NR
There were plenty of reasons for Duke’s sudden turnaround from 3-9 in 2021 to 9-4 in 2022, but Barton may have been among the biggest. He anchored the left tackle spot on a vastly improved O-line, finishing the season as the top-graded tackle in the ACC by Pro Football Focus (and fifth overall), allowing just 10 pressures and two sacks all season.
WR, South Carolina, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 68 catches, 6 TDs, 928 yards
2022 ranking: NR
His nickname is “Juice,” and that’s what Wells provides for a South Carolina offense that played its best football at the end of last season. The 6-1, 208-pound senior returns for his second season with the Gamecocks after beginning his career at James Madison. Wells became the go-to guy for quarterback Spencer Rattler a year ago. He earned first-team All-SEC honors after leading the team in catches (68), receiving yards (928) and touchdown receptions (6).
QB, Duke, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,396 total yards, 33 total TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Perhaps the most unheralded quarterback in the ACC, those who have not paid attention for the last year should start paying attention now. Leonard won the starting quarterback job last year in preseason camp and has not looked back, throwing for 3,348 yards, 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions. But he can run, too. Leonard is one of three FBS quarterbacks returning in 2023 who gained 2,900 or more passing yards and 695 or more rushing yards last year, joining Jayden Daniels (LSU) and Drake Maye (UNC).
QB, South Carolina, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,026 yards, 18 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
It’s been a rollercoaster ride for Rattler, who was at one point a Heisman Trophy front-runner at Oklahoma. After losing his job to Caleb Williams, Rattler transferred to South Carolina and put it all together at the end of last season, including a school-record six touchdown passes in the 63-38 win over Tennessee. Rattler finished the season with 4,026 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’s 23-7 in 30 career starts at Oklahoma and South Carolina.
RB, Baylor, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 972 yards, 14 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year set a program record for rushing yards by a freshman (972), and his 14 rushing touchdowns were the fourth-most in team history. He ranked second nationally in rushing TDs and fifth in rushing yards as he became a freshman All-American.
RB, Oregon State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 982 rushing yards, 7 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
In and around Oregon State there was plenty of hype surrounding the arrival of Martinez, an incoming freshman from Lewisville, Texas. By season’s end, the Beavers’ offense couldn’t function without giving Martinez, who had six straight 100-yard games to finish the regular season, at least 15 carries per game. He finished with 982 yards and five touchdowns in his debut season.
DE, Boston College, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 8.5 sacks, 14.5 TFLs, 4 QBHs, 3 FFs
2022 ranking: NR
The BC edge rusher has a good case as the most underrated impact player in college football. He toiled largely in the shadows during an abysmal 3-9 season for the Eagles last year, but he was often unblockable for opposing lines, finishing with 8.5 sacks, 14.5 TFL and three forced fumbles.
WR, Syracuse, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 61 catches, 969 yards, 6 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Is he a tight end or a wide receiver? Stop asking, Dino Babers said. Gadsden is just a football player — one who’s nearly impossible to defend. At 6-5, 220 pounds, Gadsden makes for an imposing-yet-agile target, and last year he used his impressive size and skills to rack up 61 catches for 969 yards and six touchdowns for the Orange.
CB, Kansas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 3 INTs, 9 PBUs
2022 ranking: NR
Bryant was named All-Big 12 first team by the league’s coaches, finishing his sophomore year with 37 tackles, nine passes defensed and three interceptions in 10 starts. He sealed a Jayhawks win over West Virginia with an interception in overtime.
QB, Tulane, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,010 yards, 34 total TDs
2022 ranking: NR
After a frustrating 2021 season, Pratt and his Green Wave pulled off one of the most incredible turnarounds imaginable, surging to an AAC title and Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic win over USC. Pratt threw for 3,010 yards and 27 touchdowns. Efficient with his arm and legs, Pratt will now lead a title defense in a new-look AAC.
RB, Southern Miss, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,382 yards, 9 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The younger Gore has lived up to all expectations in Hattiesburg. In 2022 he generated 1,601 yards from scrimmage, averaging more than six yards per carry and 11 yards per catch. At times over the past two years, he’s even been Southern Miss’ best QB, albeit of the Wildcat variety. He does it all.
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David Hale
Twelve years into the College Football Playoff, the committee may have been tasked with its toughest decision yet.
On one hand, there’s Alabama, the bluest of blue bloods, a team that played the sixth-toughest schedule in the country, with seven wins over FPI top-40 opponents, and whose final loss — the one that put the Tide squarely on the bubble — came in the SEC championship game, while others like Miami and Notre Dame sat at home.
On the other hand, there’s Notre Dame, the most storied program in the sport’s history with a legion of fans from coast to coast. The Irish are playing exceptional football, winning 10 straight all by double digits, and their lone losses, way back in August and early September, came to two other top-tier teams by a combined four points.
Then on the metaphorical third hand is Miami, a team that began the season with fireworks, sagged in the middle, then responded to its No. 18 placement in the first set of rankings by reeling off four straight wins by an average of 27 points per game. Oh, and Miami holds a head-to-head win over Notre Dame, albeit one that came in the first week of the season and that the committee may or may not consider from week to week.
Spread around a few garnishes of Texas, Vanderbilt and BYU on the plate and add a dessert course of a Duke-JMU argument that could result in bumping a Power 4 conference from the playoff entirely and it’s a tough year to be a committee member.
There have been others, of course. In 2014, the committee punted on a tricky Baylor-TCU debate in favor of Ohio State, and the Buckeyes won it all. In 2017, amid a chaotic final week, the committee handed its final bid to Alabama, despite its absence from the SEC championship game, and the Tide went on to win a championship. In 2023, the committee snubbed an undefeated Florida State, because of an injury to QB Jordan Travis, and the Seminoles have gone on to lose 18 of their next 25 games.
The results after a controversial decision always seem to lead to the same conclusion: The committee got things right.
And yet, as the committee so often notes after each rankings release, the results alone don’t tell the whole story. In football, perhaps more than any other sport, the process matters. And the committee’s process, from the outset of that first playoff 12 years ago, has been a mess.
The ultimate verdict of Sunday’s final ranking showcased the disaster vividly.
Step away from the whole process, and the decision to rank Miami ahead of Notre Dame makes perfect sense. They have the same record. Miami won head-to-head. Most rational folks, aligned with neither side, would acknowledge the committee came to a sensible conclusion.
But look at the process and try to follow the committee’s rationale, and it’s like climbing the stairs in an M.C. Escher painting.
In the first ranking, Notre Dame was eight spots ahead of Miami. Both won out, both by big margins, and each week along the way, Notre Dame remained ahead of Miami. Last week, Alabama — fresh off a near disaster in the Iron Bowl — leapfrogged Notre Dame despite the Irish dominating Stanford 49-20. That was a head-scratcher, unless, of course, you believed the minor conspiracy that the committee was setting up a direct comparison between Miami and Notre Dame by having them ranked one right after the other.
And, what do you know, that’s what we got. After BYU lost its conference championship, the Cougars dropped in the rankings — something that didn’t happen to Alabama for a similar blowout defeat, it should be noted — and Notre Dame and Miami were separated by nothing other than the committee’s whims.
1:31
Saban hopes Notre Dame’s snub leads to CFP changes
Nick Saban gives his thoughts on the structure of the College Football Playoff in light of Notre Dame being left out.
So while both sat home on their couches on championship weekend, Miami somehow did enough to push its way into the playoff instead of Notre Dame.
Is it a reasonable conclusion? Yes!
Is it a ridiculous process that got us here? A thousand yeses!
Let’s consider how the committee evaluates teams for a moment. Which variables matter most? We’ve gone from Florida State’s battle against game control in 2014 to Notre Dame’s résumé boasting two quality losses in 2025.
Does head-to-head matter? For five weeks it might not, but in the last week it clearly did.
The committee is supposed to evaluate a school’s entire body of work, but does that mean a September loss can’t be overshadowed by clear and obvious growth throughout a season?
Do conference championships matter? Winning them is supposed to be a factor — though, ask 2023 Florida State about that — so shouldn’t a loss matter, too? A year ago, committee chair Warde Manuel said it might — including docking SMU two spots after a three-point loss to Clemson in the ACC conference championship game, even if it didn’t knock the Mustangs out of the playoff. But Alabama’s 21-point loss Saturday meant nothing.
Ranked wins are great, but of course the committee decides who earns the distinction of being ranked. The eye test is the best argument for one team, the data for another, and no one can be sure which metric matters more, because again, it depends. For a committee composed primarily of former coaches and active ADs, the human element — perceptions, expectations, projections, biases and misunderstandings — loom like a cloud over every mention of strength of record or game control.
Or boil it down to the most basic debate: Are we trying to find the best teams or the most deserving? And how do we even define those two things? From week to week, the answer is a shrug emoji and a Mad Libs of metrics and records pieced together like those magnetic words people put on their refrigerator.
All of this leads to arguments, which is likely a feature of the system, not a bug. Debate is part of the DNA of sports. But ironically, no one seems to contradict the committee more than the committee itself. The case for Team A so often sounds like the mirror image of the case against Team B. Alabama jumped Notre Dame in last week’s rankings after an ugly win over Auburn, but Miami’s dominant victory on the road against a ranked Pitt team made no difference. When Texas A&M needed a Houdini act to beat South Carolina, that wasn’t a knock on the Aggies, the committee chair said, but when Alabama narrowly escaped those same Gamecocks, it was a flaw in the Tide’s résumé. Ranked wins are great — but only if the team was ranked at the time, or maybe if it ends up ranked in the future. Also, the committee does the ranking so, whew.
And when those explanations get parsed by fans in the aftermath of perplexing decisions — Alabama’s “impressive” seven-point win over 5-7 Auburn allowing the Tide to leapfrog Notre Dame after a 29-point Irish win over 4-8 Stanford, for example — the outcome isn’t just disagreements and debate. It’s conspiratorial thinking. It’s a hollowing out of trust in the process. It’s a belief that the deck is stacked ahead of time. And that’s a disservice to the sport, the teams involved, and the committee itself. Good folks work hard and care about their role, but because their process is so immensely flawed, the presumption of nefarious motives isn’t just fodder for the message boards, but increasingly, mainstream thinking.
Imagine for a moment this wasn’t about college football. Imagine instead this was clinical trials for a new drug or a prized astrophysicist trying to explain an anomaly deep in outer space or, heck, assembling a bookshelf you bought from IKEA. Any such endeavor requires not just a result that seems to work, but a process that can be repeated, again and again, by a completely different set of people, before anyone gives it enough credence that a majority of people — even ones who don’t understand the process at all — believe in the work that was done and trust the results provided.
We don’t have to understand Einstein’s theory of relativity to believe in its basic principles. Relativity remains a theory, not a fact, but it is commonly accepted around the world by brilliant scientists and guys watching “Interstellar” at 3 a.m. on cable alike, because we can all appreciate a stringent process, rigorous testing, and an ability to withstand criticism from dissenting voices.
If we can do that for quantum physics, then surely we can do that for a college football playoff, right?
Instead, we’ll continue to argue. That’s OK. The arguments are part of the fun. But at the foundation of those arguments are real people — players, coaches, administrators, support staffs and even the fans. While no result will make everyone happy, the least this sport owes them is a process they can understand.
Way back on Nov. 4, Notre Dame was 6-2 with a three-point loss to Miami on its résumé. The committee believed the Irish were the No. 10 team in the country.
On that same date, Miami was 6-2 with a three-point win over Notre Dame on its résumé. The committee believed the Canes were the No. 18 team in the country.
This isn’t complicated math, but just for clarity’s sake: Five weeks ago, these two teams had the same record, Miami had a head-to-head win, and the committee believed Notre Dame was eight spots better. That would certainly seem to indicate a sincere and strong belief that, the Week 1 result be damned, the Irish were clearly the better team overall.
So, what has happened since then?
Notre Dame is 4-0 with a win over a ranked team and an average margin of 38 points per game. Miami is 4-0 with a win over a ranked team and an average margin of 27.5 points per game.
And yet, when the committee put its rankings together this time around, Miami is one spot ahead of Notre Dame.
There is every reason to be suspicious of the committee’s initial evaluation of these two teams. Perhaps those Nov. 4 rankings were a mistake. But the committee waited five weeks to correct that mistake, and during that span, the Irish absolutely demoralized everyone they played — including two teams that Miami also played, but Notre Dame won by more.
Nothing that has happened between the first rankings and the last suggests Notre Dame got worse relative to Miami, and yet a full nine spots in the rankings have shifted between the two.
If this was all about the committee playing the long game, using the opening scenes to set up a dramatic showdown between Miami and Notre Dame in the final act, then kudos for creating some exceptional TV.
As far as offering an honest weekly evaluation of college football teams, however, this was an absurd farce that served as a slap in the face to coach Marcus Freeman and his team and leaves us without the chance to see arguably the best player in the country, Jeremiyah Love, in the biggest games of the year.
Typically the difference between a No. 6 and a No. 7 ranking is negligible. Both get a home game in the first round, both have a good shot to advance.
This year, however, it’s a little different.
Thanks to the ACC’s pratfall of a season, two Group of 5 teams made the final field. That means both the No. 5 seed and the No. 6 seed get to play teams from outside the big-boy conferences, while the No. 7 seed lands a genuine contender on the docket in Round 1.
The loser of this lottery is Texas A&M, and that’s a pretty tough take to defend.
Let’s look at the résumés.
Team A: No. 10 in FPI, best win vs. FPI No. 3, loss to FPI No. 13, No. 3 strength of record, five wins vs. bowl-eligible teams, six wins vs. FPI top 40
Team B: No. 12 in FPI, best win vs. FPI No. 15, loss to SP+ No. 6, No 6 strength of record, four wins vs. bowl-eligible teams, four wins vs. FPI top 40
They’re close, but the edge in nearly every metric is with Team A. That’s Texas A&M.
Or how about this: Against five common opponents, A&M has a scoring edge of 2 points, including a far better win over LSU, their best common foe.
Is it splitting hairs? Of course, but that’s the committee’s job. And the results of that hair-splitting are the difference between Ole Miss getting a rematch with a Tulane team it beat by 35 in September or facing off against a red-hot Miami eager to prove it belonged in the field.
3. Greg Sankey
On Saturday, the SEC commissioner was asked to state his case for his league’s bubble teams. He offered an inclusive take.
“I view that there are seven of our teams at the conclusion of the 12-game season over 14 weeks that merit inclusion in the playoff,” Sankey said.
And yet, here we are, with just a measly five SEC teams in the field, including one getting a first-round bye and three hosting home games. It’s a slap in the face!
Truth is, Vanderbilt was quite good this year, with a strength of record ahead of both Notre Dame and Miami, and the world would simply be a better place with Diego Pavia in the playoff.
Truth is, if the goal of the playoff is to seed it with the best teams — the teams capable of beating other elite teams and making a run for a championship — then Texas had as good a case as anyone, with head-to-head wins over Oklahoma, Vandy and Texas A&M.
Heck, compare these two résumés:
Team A: Three losses, the worst loss to FPI No. 53 by eight and three wins vs. FPI top-15 teams
Team B: Three losses, the worst loss to FPI No. 74 by 14 and two wins vs. FPI top-15 teams
Team A also has a 17-point win over a team that beat Team B.
So, who would you take?
Don’t ask Sankey. His answer is both. But Team A is Texas and Team B is Alabama, and the Longhorns have looked markedly better over the past month of the season than the flailing Tide.
You have to hand it to Manny Diaz. The man can make a coherent argument for a lost cause.
“We played 10 Power 4 teams. Comparing us to James Madison, for example, who had a fantastic season — their strength of schedule is in the 100s. Ours is in the 50s. Seven wins in our conference. Seven Power 4 wins as opposed to zero Power 4 wins. The ACC champions. … I’m watching them play Troy at home [in the Sun Belt championship] and Troy had a backup quarterback in for most of the game, right? And it’s a three-point game until, really, the last few minutes of the game when they were able to pull away. They won the game and their conference, but you just can’t compare going through the Sun Belt this year — the Sun Belt has been a really good conference in years past, but most of their top teams are just having down years. They’re not challenged the way they would’ve been going through a normal Sun Belt schedule. Then you start comparing strength of schedule — if you simply go into wins and losses, you have to look at who you’re playing against. That’s the whole point of why you play a Power 4 schedule. There’s a reason these coaches are all leaving to take Power 4 jobs. There’s a recognition that’s where the best competition is.”
That was no small jab at JMU, whose coach, Bob Chesney, is leaving for a Power 4 job at UCLA.
It also probably gets Diaz removed from Sun Belt commissioner Keith Gill’s Christmas card list, which given that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips can’t be pleased with Duke torpedoing his conference’s reputation by winning the league with five losses, is going to leave a lot of extra space on Diaz’s mantle this holiday season.
Alabama lost a championship game by 21 points to a top-four team. It didn’t budge in the rankings.
BYU lost a championship game by 27 points to a top-four team. It dropped a spot.
Did it ultimately matter for the Cougars? No. They weren’t sniffing the playoff unless they beat Texas Tech. But on principle, they ought to be angry about the double standard.
Moreover, BYU was the most overlooked team all season — the one that had a good case, a comparable résumé, and virtually no one outside of Provo cheerleading for them.
Which, oddly enough, feels about the same as last year, when BYU had a perfectly good case alongside Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina, and no one seemed to bat an eye when they finished a distant 17th — behind Clemson, even — in the committee’s final ranking.
Also angry this week: Virginia Cavaliers (10-3, No. 19 and dropped two spots — more than any other conference championship game loser, despite playing the closest conference championship game), Tennessee Volunteers, LSU Tigers, Illinois Fighting Illini and Missouri Tigers (all 8-4, all unranked, and all with a better strength of record than the Arizona Wildcats or the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets), Lane Kiffin (astonished the committee didn’t value his departure more).
College football’s championship weekend delivered a mix of compelling drama and blowouts.
In Atlanta, Georgia dominated Alabama and won the SEC for a second year in a row. The Bulldogs held the Tide to 209 total yards and locked up a first-round bye. UGA, the No. 3 seed, will play the winner of the matchup of No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Tulane in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
It was a similar story in the Big 12 where Texas Tech broke open the game with BYU in the second half. The Red Raiders forced four turnovers in the 34-7 win. Texas Tech is the No. 4 seed and will face either No. 5 Oregon or No. 12 James Madison in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
The real drama was reserved for the Big Ten and ACC championships. Indiana won its first conference title since 1967 and took down No. 1 Ohio State. The Hoosiers will be the No. 1 seed while the Buckeyes fell just one spot to No. 2 The undefeated Hoosiers will have their first playoff game at the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential against the winner of the No. 8 Oklahoma-No. 9 Alabama matchup. Ohio State faces the winner of No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.
Duke‘s upset of Virginia in the ACC title game opened the door for two Group of 5 teams — Tulane (which won the American) and James Madison (Sun Belt winner).
After months of rankings, seedings and countless debates, we have a 12-team bracket that brings about plenty of enticing questions and intriguing possibilities.
Can Oregon, Indiana, Texas A&M or Texas Tech bring home its first national title? Can Ohio State repeat? Will a Group of 5 team get its first-ever CFP win?
Here are our full picks for the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Andrea Adelson
First round
Oregon 55, JMU 13
Bama 20, Oklahoma 17
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
Quarterfinals
Oregon 35, Texas Tech 30
Indiana 30, Alabama 20
Georgia 40, Ole Miss 24
Ohio State 24, Miami 21
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Georgia 24
Indiana 35, Oregon 31
National title game
Ohio State 21, Indiana 20
Kyle Bonagura
First round
Oregon 49, James Madison 24
Texas A&M 31, Miami 24
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 24
Alabama 31, Oklahoma 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 28, Oregon 27
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 24, Texas A&M 14
Indiana 35, Alabama 27
Semifinals
Ohio State 24, Georgia 17
Indiana 28, Texas Tech 24
National title game
Indiana 17, Ohio State 10
Bill Connelly
First round
Oregon 41, James Madison 24
Oklahoma 27, Alabama 17
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 20
Texas A&M 31, Miami 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 38, Oregon 34
Indiana 30, Oklahoma 7
Georgia 27, Ole Miss 23
Ohio State 24, Texas A&M 13
Semifinals
Texas Tech 27, Indiana 23
Georgia 17, Ohio State 16
National title game
Texas Tech 28, Georgia 20
David Hale
First round
Oregon 35, JMU 13
Ole Miss 48, Tulane 24
Alabama 17, Oklahoma 10
Miami 27, Texas A&M 21
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 24, Oregon 21
Indiana 20, Alabama 10
Georgia 30, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 34, Miami 24
Semifinals
Indiana 30, Texas Tech 28
Georgia 27, Ohio State 24
National title game
Georgia 24, Indiana 20
Eli Lederman
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 10
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 20
Alabama 21, Oklahoma 10
Texas A&M 38, Miami 31
Quarterfinals
Oregon 24, Texas Tech 17
Indiana 23, Alabama 10
Georgia 41, Ole Miss 30
Ohio State 30, Texas A&M 17
Semifinals
Indiana 20, Oregon 17
Georgia 27, Ohio State 20
National title game
Georgia 31, Indiana 17
Max Olson
First round
Oregon 34, James Madison 17
Alabama 13, Oklahoma 10
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 14
Texas A&M 27, Miami 24
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 27, Oregon 20
Indiana 24, Alabama 17
Georgia 41, Ole Miss 31
Ohio State 27, Texas A&M 17
Semifinals
Indiana 17, Texas Tech 16
Georgia 35, Ohio State 31
National title game
Georgia 31, Indiana 20
Adam Rittenberg
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 13
Ole Miss 34, Tulane 16
Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
Miami 31, Texas A&M 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20
Indiana 24, Alabama 16
Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Semifinals
Indiana 20, Texas Tech 17
Ohio State 19, Georgia 16
National title game
Ohio State 24, Indiana 20
Mark Schlabach
First round
Oregon 51, JMU 17
Alabama 17, Oklahoma 14
Ole Miss 42, Tulane 20
Miami 28, Texas A&M 20
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 35, Oregon 31
Indiana 31, Alabama 14
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 28
Ohio State 24, Miami 17
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Georgia 24
Indiana 42, Texas Tech 38
National title game
Indiana 24, Ohio State 20
Jake Trotter
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 10
Oklahoma 17, Alabama 16
Ole Miss 30, Tulane 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 23
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 25, Oregon 17
Indiana 24, Oklahoma 13
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 14
Ohio State 21, Miami 13
Semifinals
Indiana 19, Texas Tech 17
Ohio State 16, Georgia 14
National title game
Ohio State 21, Indiana 20
Paolo Uggetti
First round
Oklahoma 21, Alabama 17
Oregon 38, JMU 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 21
Quarterfinals
Indiana 34, Oklahoma 20
Oregon 24, Texas Tech 21
Georgia 21, Ole Miss 17
Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Semifinals
Indiana 23, Oregon 20
Georgia 24, Ohio State 17
National title game
Indiana 21, Georgia 17
Dave Wilson
First round
Oregon 44, James Madison 13
Texas A&M 27, Miami 17
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 24
Oklahoma 23, Alabama 17
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 24, Oregon 20
Georgia 44, Ole Miss 17
Ohio State 21, Texas A&M 20
Indiana 24, Oklahoma 10
Semifinals
Georgia 27, Ohio State 17
Indiana 24, Texas Tech 17
National title game
Georgia, 17, Indiana 14
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Bill Connelly
Championship Week came and went with one last burst of uncertainty. The politicking is mercifully over. The bracket is set for the second 12-team College Football Playoff, and it is an incredible mix of stalwarts and new blood.
Five teams from last year’s field return. Four of the five teams with the most CFP appearances — Alabama (ninth appearance), Ohio State (seventh), Georgia (fifth), Oklahoma (fifth) — are here, too.
But the No. 1 seed is an Indiana team that just won its first Big Ten title in 58 years and had, until earlier this year, lost more games than any other program in the history of college football. No. 4 seed Texas Tech has never finished in the top 10 and just won its first outright conference title since 1955 (when it was in the Border Conference). No. 6 seed Ole Miss has its best record in 63 years, and No. 7 Texas A&M has its best record in 34 years.
Miami, potentially looking at its first top-10 season in 22 years, eked out a bid. Tulane is here! The Green Wave are on their best run since the 1930s! James Madison is here, too! The Dukes were in FCS four years ago!
New blood, bluebloods, great offenses, great defenses. The stakes are set. Let’s talk about why each playoff team will — or won’t — win the national title.
All times Eastern.
Title odds, per SP+: 23.5% (No. 2 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Oklahoma-Alabama winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: No known weakness. Are you a “defense wins championships” person? Indiana ranks second in defensive SP+, third in points allowed per drive and sixth in success rate* allowed. The Hoosiers just held Ohio State to its lowest point total in 18 games. Do you like defensive disruption? They’re second in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and seventh in sack rate.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
Need to know that your title pick has a QB it can count on in big moments? Fernando Mendoza is third in Total QBR and is, if betting odds are to be believed (and they usually are), the Heisman favorite by a large margin. And in Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., he has maybe the most elite receiving duo in the country outside of Columbus. Does it help to know what a team can ground-and-pound when necessary, or stop its opponent from doing the same? IU’s offense ranks fourth in rushing success rate and 17th in yards per carry (not including sacks); its defense ranks fourth and 12th, respectively, in the same categories.
Third downs are important — what about those? Indiana is first nationally in third-down conversion rate (55.8%) and second on third-down conversion rate allowed (28.1%).
Have they come through away from home? Yeah, I’d say winning at Iowa City and Eugene probably qualifies.
There’s a reason why Indiana is the last unbeaten team standing. This team has aced every test it has been given in 2025.
Why they won’t: Random big-play issues. When you allow just 4.6 yards per play and 0.9 points per drive, you don’t have a serious issue with big plays. But a few teams did still have some success creating chunk plays.
Old Dominion scored on touchdown runs of 78 and 75 yards. Illinois hit on a 59-yard TD pass. Penn State had a 59-yard run and 43-yard pass. Kennesaw State had three completions of 30-plus yards. Hell, 98 of Ohio State’s 322 yards came on two completions (though one was a fruitless end-of-game Hail Mary), as did 93 of Maryland’s 293 yards. Even if it’s not a season-long issue, there are plenty of ultra-explosive offenses in this playoff field, and a couple of glitches could become extremely costly.
Title odds, per SP+: 28.6% (No. 1 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Texas A&M-Miami (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They’re Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the defending champions, they have at least two of the five or so best players in the sport (receiver Jeremiah Smith, safety Caleb Downs), their quarterback (Julian Sayin) has the highest Total QBR of any playoff QB, their offense ranks fourth in points per drive (despite having played four games against top-20 defenses, per SP+), and their defense ranks first in defensive SP+ and second in points per drive and yards per play.
They have all the components you could ask for, and despite Saturday night’s loss to Indiana, they enter this year’s CFP with better form and fewer question marks. And hell, after 11 straight comfortable wins, even the loss might be beneficial from the standpoints of focus and motivation. This is the shortest “why they will win it” section in this entire piece, but it’s also the most definitive. We know how good they are.
Why they won’t: Cautious programming. Against the best defense he has faced in his footballing life, Sayin completed 21 of 29 passes for 258 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Granted, those numbers were boosted by the late Hail Mary completion, but he mostly kept the ball out of harm’s way, and in nearly his first genuinely high-consequence drive all season, he drove the Buckeyes 70 yards inside the Indiana 5 in the third quarter and 81 yards inside the 10 in the fourth.
Sayin came up just short on a fourth-down QB sneak on the former drive, however, which evidently prompted Ryan Day to go shockingly conservative on the latter. On fourth-and-1 from the 9, Day elected to attempt a game-tying field goal, one that, even had Jayden Fielding made it, would have given the Hoosiers ample time to drive down for a field goal of their own. Fielding missed it. Ball don’t lie.
Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline have played it safe with Sayin for most of the season, easing him in, dialing up mostly quick passes and programming him to throw the ball away if he doesn’t see what he wants. When you have a star-studded receiving corps and an incredible defense backing you up, that makes sense. But you might need to dial the risk factor up in big moments, and it sure felt like Ohio State failed in that regard Saturday night. Will they put their faith in Sayin when it matters the most? Will he back up the faith if they do?
Title odds, per SP+: 9.8% (No. 4 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Ole Miss-Tulane winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They’re mean again. Georgia was maddening to watch early this season. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs almost seemed to come out without a game plan, playing things as vanilla as possible, taking some shots from the opponent — and frequently falling behind into the second half — before rallying. It worked, aside from a loss to Alabama, but it made for some underwhelming performances (and undue stress for fans).
Over the past four games, however, the defense has locked in, allowing a paltry 7.3 points per game, 4.3 yards per play and 2.6 yards per carry, not including sacks. The Dawgs have forced three-and-outs 41% of the time in this span (10th nationally), and they’ve allowed touchdowns on just 17% of red zone trips (second).
In Saturday’s SEC championship game, a 28-7 win over Alabama, the Dawgs painted their masterpiece. They allowed just 209 total yards (3.8 per play), including just 20 non-sack rushing yards. On Bama’s first eight possessions, the Tide punted seven times, turned the ball over once and finished just one drive in Georgia territory. They finally moved the ball late but never got closer than 14 points.
After some listless play early on, Georgia is defending as well as it has since the 2022 season, its last national title year.
Why they won’t: A lack of big plays. Despite having faced a schedule featuring five top-20 defenses (per SP+), Georgia’s overall offensive numbers have been solid. It is 14th in offensive SP+, 23rd in points per drive and 22nd in success rate. The run game probably hasn’t helped as much as Smart would prefer, but short, quick passing has bridged the efficiency gap, and the Dawgs have scored at least 28 points nine times. That’s more than enough with the way the defense is playing.
While efficiency levels have been solid, Georgia struggles to create chunk plays. The Dawgs rank 130th in yards per successful play; quarterback Gunner Stockton averages just 10.7 yards per completion, and that sinks to 9.5 per completion against top-20 defenses. He almost never puts the ball in harm’s way, but safety comes with a price, and UGA is not built to move the ball quickly and aggressively if (or when) the need arises.
Title odds, per SP+: 20.9% (No. 3 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Oregon-James Madison winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They have the best front six in the country. Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the nation. Fellow linebacker Ben Roberts (two interceptions and a pass breakup) was the Big 12 championship game’s MVP. David Bailey is second in the nation in sacks and third in TFLs. Romello Height is 16th in sacks. And despite losing Skyler Gill-Howard to a midseason injury, tackles Lee Hunter and Anthony Holmes Jr. have prevented any semblance of a drop-off in the middle.
The secondary is good, too, but the front six has been transcendent in Lubbock. The Red Raiders rank third nationally in success rate allowed (31.3%), third in yards allowed per play (4.0) and first in yards allowed per carry, not including sacks (3.3). They’ve allowed more than two offensive touchdowns just once all year (to Kansas State in a game they still won by 23), and they’ve allowed less than 4.0 yards per play eight times in 13 games. Over the previous 15 seasons, Tech’s average defensive SP+ ranking was 83.0; thanks to first-year coordinator Shiel Wood and a transformational transfer class, the Red Raiders enter their first CFP ranked fourth. And since a 26-22 loss to Arizona State — suffered without starting quarterback Behren Morton — the offense has averaged 40.8 points per game. This band of pirates is playing utterly merciless ball at the moment.
Why they won’t: Red zone offense. Tech’s offensive numbers have been good, especially considering Morton was in and out of the lineup in the first two months. The Red Raiders are 15th in points per drive, and they can lean heavily into whatever opponents can’t stop. Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams grind out 145 rushing yards per game (5.5 per carry), and four receivers — all 6-foot-2 or taller — have caught between 46 and 55 passes.
They’ve scored TDs on just 56% of red zone trips, however, which is 101st in the nation. Against three top-20 defenses (Utah, plus BYU twice), the Red Raiders turned 14 trips into just five TDs (36%). By settling for field goal attempts, they let BYU hang around into the second half of both their meetings despite total defensive domination, and the level of competition will only rise from here.
Title odds, per SP+: 6.8% (No. 5 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 12 James Madison (Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Big plays and three-and-outs. Oregon has gained at least 20 yards on 10.4% of its snaps this season, the most in the country. The Ducks have also allowed gains of at least 20 yards on 3.3% of their snaps, the least in the country. They have gone three-and-out just 15.3% of the time (fourth) while forcing three-and-outs 42% of the time (fifth). It is, to say the least, difficult to beat a team that is pummeling you in both the efficiency and explosiveness departments.
Flexibility is the name of the game for Dan Lanning’s Ducks in 2025. For the third straight season, with a third different starting quarterback, they have played beautifully efficient offense: They rank fifth nationally in offensive success rate (they were seventh in 2024 and first in 2023). They’re also in the overall SP+ top four for the third straight year. This year, however, the defense has caught up to the offense. They’re fifth in defensive SP+, their highest ranking since 1958, and while they’ve topped 34 points seven times, they’ve also won Big Ten rock fights with scores of 18-16 and 21-7. You need to have a lot of arrows in the proverbial quiver to work through the CFP, and while Oregon has been really good for a while, it feels like the Ducks have more arrows than ever.
Why they won’t: More disruption needed. As effective as the defense has been, the Ducks haven’t been great at forcing the issue. They rank 98th in stuff rate and 47th in sack rate. They force a lot of passing downs — which I define as second-and-8 or more and third- or fourth-and-5 or more — but they rank 47th in passing-down success rate allowed, and if you can work the ball into the red zone, you’re probably scoring seven points: Oregon’s 75.0% red zone TD rate allowed ranks 129th.
Against defenses without disruption, good offenses are consistent enough to thrive. Against the two top-15 offenses they’ve faced (Indiana and USC), the Ducks allowed 28.5 points per game and 5.1 yards per play — not terrible averages, but not dominant either.
Title odds, per SP+: 4.6% (No. 6 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 11 Tulane (Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Vengeance (and great passing). Now that the weeks of innuendo and will-he-or-won’t-he questions are over, Ole Miss will head into its first CFP without Lane Kiffin but with most of the rest of the coaching staff. And while the Rebels aren’t the title favorites by any means, they’re capable of beating any team they play, especially if Kiffin’s departure produces a useful chip-on-the-shoulder effect.
The Rebels’ defense regressed from last year’s level, but it defends the pass well and has allowed more than 26 points only twice. When you almost never score fewer than 26 points (also twice all year), that puts you in a pretty good place. Ole Miss hogs the ball and wears opponents down with a solid but unspectacular run game (74th in yards per carry, not including sacks), and when it’s time for Trinidad Chambliss to pass, he often does something great. Chambliss is fifth in Total QBR, the Rebs are sixth in passing success rate and eighth in yards per dropback, and 23.1% of their completions have gained at least 20 yards (fourth). He rarely faces pressure — often because of good downs and distances — and is able to keep his eyes downfield quite a bit. Kewan Lacy and the run game are persistent, but the pass is why the Rebels are here.
Why they won’t: Run defense. The pass defense may be sound, but Ole Miss has been gashed on the ground at times. Not including sacks, the Rebels allow 5.0 yards per carry (83rd). Five opponents produced at least a 47% rushing success rate against them, including the only team to beat them (Georgia) and three that nearly pulled upsets (Kentucky, Washington State and Arkansas). Tackles Will Echoles and Zxavian Harris can both create negative plays, and not every CFP team has a great run game, but enough do for this to become a serious problem.
(One other thing to track, whether it’s a fatal flaw or not: How does new coach Pete Golding handle fourth-down decision-making? Kiffin has been famously aggressive on fourth downs through the years, and Ole Miss has scored 79 points after fourth-down conversions this season while allowing only three points after turnovers on downs. That’s some serious profit, and it could cost the Rebels if Golding chooses to be more conservative.)
Title odds, per SP+: 2.2% (No. 7 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 10 Miami (Dec. 20, noon, ABC)
Why they will win it all: Leverage. On offense, A&M brilliantly applies both horizontal and vertical leverage in the passing game, using speedsters KC Concepcion and Mario Craver to stretch defenses wide and deep threat Ashton Bethel-Roman and tight ends Theo Melin Öhrström and Nate Boerkircher to stretch them vertically. Once defenses are properly stressed, run lanes begin to open up for running back Rueben Owens II. At his best, quarterback Marcel Reed fires the ball quickly to all these different weapons and provides a solid run threat as well. The Aggies have topped 40 points seven times.
On defense, A&M leverages opponents into passing downs and tees off. Led by Cashius Howell (11.5 sacks), the Aggies rank first nationally in sack rate, and they are nearly impossible to beat on third downs: 73% of opponents’ third downs have required at least 7 yards (first), and A&M has allowed conversions on only 22% (also first). They also force three-and-outs 41% of the time (seventh). Attack, attack, attack.
Why they won’t: They may have peaked early. Following their 38-17 win at Missouri in Week 11, the Aggies proceeded to underachieve against SP+ projections by 20.9 points per game in their final three. Part of that average comes from showing mercy to an outmanned Samford, but they needed a huge second-half comeback to beat 4-8 South Carolina, and they got knocked out in the second half at Texas.
The Aggies’ run game isn’t contributing as much, and Reed is facing more pressure (35.6% pressure rate over the past three games), taking more sacks and throwing more interceptions — two each against South Carolina and Texas. And while their third-down conversion rate was 43.1% over their first nine games, it was 24.0% against the Gamecocks and Longhorns.
Defensively, glitches that have been problematic all season have become downright worrisome:
South Carolina had gains of 80 and 50 yards, and Texas had gains of 54, 48, 35 and 30. A&M now ranks 135th (out of 136) in yards allowed per successful play (14.4) and 127th in rushing yards allowed after contact (3.3). Defensive aggression risks big-play breakdowns, and things didn’t trend well in November. Maybe some rest will help?
Title odds, per SP+: 1.0% (No. 9 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 9 Alabama (Dec. 19, 8 p.m., ABC)
Why they will win it all: The coolest defense in the country. What if you could combine Texas A&M’s aggression with solid big-play prevention? You can! OU does just about every week. The Sooners rank second in success rate allowed (first against the run), third in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), third in sack rate and fourth in three-and-out rate, but they’re also allowing a much more palatable 12.7 yards per successful play (99th, but far ahead of A&M), and they’ve allowed 17 or fewer points eight times.
Linemen Taylor Wein and Gracen Halton have combined for 24 tackles for loss and 22 run stops, and their best lineman, R Mason Thomas, could be close to healthy by the time the playoff rolls around. Meanwhile, the secondary more than carries its weight: Corners Courtland Guillory and Eli Bowen have allowed just a 38% completion rate in coverage with two interceptions, 12 breakups and just two touchdowns allowed.
OU’s offense isn’t very good (we’ll get to that), but the Sooners know themselves as well as anyone in this field. The defense does most of the heavy lifting, and when the offense is given an opportunity, it takes advantage: The Sooners score TDs on 72% of red zone trips (16th). They’ve won in Knoxville and Tuscaloosa, and their reward for that is a first-ever playoff home game. Sooners fans cheered on the move to the SEC because they wanted bigger home games, and here comes the biggest one imaginable. And against an Alabama team the Sooners know they can beat.
Why they won’t: The Sooners can’t score. This seems pretty important. Even with excellent red zone execution, the Sooners rank 87th in success rate (111th rushing), 89th in points per drive and 95th in yards per play. Dreadful stuff.
Quarterback John Mateer‘s numbers were obviously impacted by his early-season hand injury (and how quickly he attempted to come back from it), but downfield passing has been an issue all season. He has completed 30% of passes 20 or more yards downfield, 104th among QBR-eligible QBs. The run game has been dreadful: The Sooners have averaged 3.3 yards per carry over the past three games. Playing well in the red zone is important, but they probably won’t create enough red zone chances to make a major run.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.7% (No. 10 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 8 Oklahoma (Dec. 19, 8 p.m., ABC)
Why they will win it all: They’re battle tested. In retrospect, we know Alabama basically clinched its playoff spot in October; in consecutive weeks, the Crimson Tide beat Georgia (24-21), Vanderbilt (30-14), Missouri (27-24) and Tennessee (37-20). They were great early against Georgia, in the middle against Mizzou and late against Vandy, and it looked like all the pieces had come together against the Vols. Ty Simpson was my Heisman points race leader into November, and even with a recent downturn, he has still produced great season stats: 3,268 passing yards, 64% completion rate, 26-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio. Their legs looked a little weary down the stretch, but we know they’re capable of producing form that can beat anyone.
Well, the offense looked weary down the stretch. The defense keeps improving. Against four top-15 offenses (per SP+), the Tide allowed just 20.8 points per game, and they gave up fewer yards per play with each contest — 6.7 against Georgia the first time, then 6.2 against Vandy, then 5.3 against Tennessee, then 4.4 against Georgia the second time. Edge rusher Yhonzae Pierre (11.5 TFLs, six sacks) is one of the SEC’s best playmakers, and safety Bray Hubbard (four interceptions, six breakups) punishes mistakes in the back. The offense won’t have to produce a ton for the Tide to win some playoff games.
Why they won’t: They last looked like a playoff team in Week 8. That’s kind of an issue, isn’t it? Thanks primarily to a fading offense, the Tide have underachieved against SP+ projections in four of their past six games, falling from sixth (after the Vandy game) to 13th in SP+ in the process. The run game has never kicked in — RB Jam Miller hasn’t been able to stay healthy (and hasn’t been great even when he’s available) — and carrying the weight of the offense seemed to wear Simpson down: His Total QBR was 82.7 through seven games, 74.5 over the next four and 54.0 over the past two.
Simpson averaged a ghastly 3.7 yards per dropback against Auburn and Georgia, and both his timing in the pocket and his timing with receivers has been terribly off. Maybe a week off will help, but we haven’t seen Bama’s best for a while — and we certainly didn’t see it the last time the Tide played OU.
Title odds, per SP+: 1.7% (No. 8 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 7 Texas A&M (Dec. 20, noon, ABC)
Why they will win it all: Football is an efficiency game. If you’re winning more plays than your opponent, you can win any game you play, and few win more plays than Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes. They’re 10th in success rate (49.6%) and eighth in success rate allowed (34.5%); Indiana and Ohio State are the only other teams to rank in the top 10 in both categories.
Miami found balance this season. The Hurricanes were first in offensive SP+ in 2024 thanks to Cam Ward and the rest, but the Hurricanes were a dismal 52nd on defense, allowing 37.3 points per game in three losses and even giving up 30-plus in four wins. The offense predictably regressed after Ward’s departure, but Carson Beck, Malachi Toney & Co. are still 16th in offensive SP+, and the defense has carried a far heavier load thanks to a brilliant new coordinator (Corey Hetherman), a junior-year breakthrough from star lineman Rueben Bain Jr. and a number of transfer hits — linebacker Mohamed Toure is a dynamo in the middle, and a number of new DBs (safeties Jakobe Thomas and Zechariah Poyser, corners Keionte Scott and Xavier Lucas) have been stellar.
The Canes have so many more paths to victory now: The offense has scored 34 or more seven times, and the defense has allowed 12 or fewer seven times.
Why they won’t: Individual games are decided by big plays and turnovers (and close-and-late situations). In two losses, the Hurricanes had as many turnovers (six) as 20-yard gains. Beck threw six picks while averaging just 10.7 yards per completion. Turnover risk without any reward will doom you, efficiency or no efficiency.
Cristobal also has so much to prove in close games. Miami is 2-2 in one-score finishes this year, and a close win — in Week 1 against Notre Dame — got the Hurricanes into the playoff field. But Cristobal’s old, overly conservative tendencies backfired in both losses. Down three late against Louisville, the Canes played for a field goal instead of a touchdown; tied with 25 seconds (and a timeout) left against SMU, they kneeled the ball out and played for overtime. They lost both times. Winning four playoff games, including one in the first round against A&M (4-0 in one-score games), will require nailing late-game circumstances, and I wish we had more evidence that Miami is capable of that.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.02% (No. 12 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 6 Ole Miss (Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Turnovers and TFLs. Tulane broke through with 12 wins and a Cotton Bowl victory in 2022, and the Green Wave have remained a Group of 5 contender ever since. After enjoying double-digit wins in just one season from 1935 to 2021, they’ve done it three times in the past four seasons.
Second-year coach Jon Sumrall didn’t like his team very much this October: After a tighter-than-necessary win over East Carolina, he told ESPN’s Harry Lyles, “We’re a really sloppy football team that finds ways to win games, and I’m going to lose my mind because we’re so immature.” They would get blown out by UTSA a couple of games later.
Since the start of November, however, the defense has surged. The Green Wave rank sixth in turnover rate (4.0%) and 18th in TFLs per game (7.0) in that span, and they’re allowing just 4.0 yards per carry, not including sacks (22nd). They force loads of passing downs and pounce on whatever mistakes the opposing quarterback makes, while Jake Retzlaff and the offense do lots of whatever the defense can’t stop. They forced five turnovers in Friday’s American championship game against North Texas, returning one for a touchdown, and against a UNT defense that is poor against the run, they simply rushed their way to a 34-21 win.
Why they won’t: You probably need to be elite at something. Tulane looks more like a power conference team than almost any in the Group of 5, and it beat both Northwestern and Duke in nonconference play. Sumrall teams will always problem-solve beautifully, even if they have to move to Plan B or Plan C. There’s a reason Sumrall has won three conference titles in four years as a head coach, and there’s a reason Florida hired him. But the Green Wave don’t have any elite traits this season, and when you have nothing you know you can lean on, sometimes not even Plan C will uncover an answer.
Tulane’s two losses this season were blowouts. Ole Miss (forgivable) and UTSA (less so) outscored them by a combined 93-36 and outgained them by a combined 355 yards. They can win a tight game against just about anyone, but if/when they lose in the CFP, it might not be close. And scaring Ole Miss in a first-round rematch will require a far better performance, especially from Retzlaff.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.2% (No. 11 favorite)
First-round opponent: No. 5 Oregon (Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: What, like it’s hard? JMU walked through the FBS door four years ago and immediately started acting like it owns the place. The Dukes are 40-10 in the FBS, and four of those losses came in 2024, as they were transitioning from Curt Cignetti to Bob Chesney. Once Chesney got his footing, so did the Dukes. They’re back in the SP+ top 25 for the second time in three seasons, and their only loss was at Louisville in September. They allowed the Cardinals just 264 total yards, and the game was tied in the fourth quarter until it turned on a fumble.
The Dukes look the part. JMU’s offense is top-30 in most key categories; it can play with high efficiency at times, and when it doesn’t, it bails itself out with big plays like Wayne Knight‘s 73-yard touchdown run Friday night in the Sun Belt championship game.
0:36
Wayne Knight bursts through for a 73-yard JMU TD
Wayne Knight breaks a few tackles on his way to a 73-yard rushing touchdown for James Madison.
The defense is simply dynamite. The Dukes rank first in success rate allowed (29%) and fourth in yards allowed per play (4.1). Colin Hitschler’s defense attacks nonstop, knowing that even if it gives up a big play or two, the flood of three-and-outs and turnovers will balance that out. Redshirt freshman Sahir West leads the team with 14 TFLs — he had 5.5 TFLs and three sacks against Troy on Friday — but eight different Dukes have at least five TFLs, and their trio of cornerbacks in Justin Eaglin, Elijah Culp and DJ Barksdale (slot) compares well to any in the CFP.
Why they won’t: You probably can’t rely on big plays in the CFP. Knight has nine rushes of at least 30 yards (more than 91 FBS teams) and quarterback Alonza Barnett III has added seven rushes of 20-plus yards while completing 17 passes of 30-plus. Chunk plays are fabulous bailouts, but it’s a lot harder to generate those against elite defenses. Against the two SP+ top-30 defenses the Dukes faced (Louisville and Washington State), they averaged just 19 points at 4.5 yards per play. Winning a CFP game (or games) will require dynamite defensive play, and while JMU could deliver that, there is minimal margin for error there. Can they hold Oregon to, say, 24 or fewer points?
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