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Home Office plans to clamp down on illegal migration risk creating a “perma-backlog” of asylum seekers that could end up costing the taxpayer over £6bn a year, a think tank has said.

Researchers at the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) argue that measures in the Illegal Migration Act – which aims to detain and remove people who arrive in the UK illegally – could see thousands of asylum seekers stuck in “limbo” and in need of accommodation.

A key plank of the Act is the Rwanda scheme, where those who arrive illegally will be deported to the east African nation in what the government hopes will act as a deterrent to those coming to the UK in small boats.

However, the policy is currently held up in the courts and no flight to Rwanda has yet taken off.

Now, the IPPR claims that – even if the Supreme Court deems the £120m deal lawful – deportations are likely to be on such a small scale that arrivals will still outpace the number of people who are removed.

With an inability to work or claim asylum legally, those left in limbo will be reliant on costly government support and housing, the think tank warned, while there is also the risk of an expanding undocumented population that is vulnerable to destitution.

It said that even if 500 people are removed per month, annual housing costs of those in limbo could exceed £5bn at current prices within five years.

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If only 50 people are removed each month, then housing costs would increase to more than £6bn.

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Asylum seekers ‘not valued’ as humans

Marley Morris, IPPR’s associate director for migration, trade and communities, said: “There is only a very narrow window for government success on asylum, based on its current plan to forge ahead with the Rwanda deal and the Illegal Migration Act. Even with the Act fully implemented, under most plausible scenarios arrivals will still outpace removals.

“This will mean a growing population of people permanently in limbo, putting huge pressure on Home Office accommodation and support systems – plus a risk of thousands of people who vanish from the official system and are at risk of exploitation and destitution.

“Any incoming government would be likely to face a dire and increasingly costly challenge which it would need to address urgently from the outset – there will be no option to ignore or sideline the crisis it inherits.”

The IPPR analysis come after the government suffered a series of setbacks with regards to its plans to tackle illegal migration.

Rishi Sunak pledged to clear the legacy backlog by the end of 2023 and also made “stopping the boats” one of his five promises to the public ahead of the next election.

But earlier this month, Home Office figures showed that more than 100,000 people had now crossed the Channel in in small boats since records began five years ago.

Almost 18,000 migrants have arrived in the UK after crossing the English Channel so far this year.

In order to cope with the increasing number of arrivals, the government has sought to move asylum seekers out of hotels – which are costing the taxpayer £6m a day – and into alternative sites, including disused military bases and barges.

But the barge plan has not been without controversy after the asylum seekers moved onto the Bibby Stockholm in Dorset had to be removed after Legionella bacteria was discovered on the premises.

The asylum backlog also reached a record high of 172,758 at the end of March.

Shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock said: “This report confirms what Labour has been saying all along. The prime minister’s new law is a con which will not solve the chaos in the immigration system the Tories have created.

“Instead, it will make it worse, keeping more people locked in limbo waiting for years for asylum decisions and the taxpayer left footing an almighty bill.”

He said a Labour government would go after criminal gangs to tackle small boat crossings, negotiate a returns deal with the European Union and clear the asylum backlog.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “The Illegal Migration Act will help to clear the asylum backlog by allowing us to detain and swiftly remove those who arrive here illegally. While we operationalise the measures in the Act, we continue to remove those with no right to be here through existing powers.

“We are also on track to clear the ‘legacy’ backlog of asylum cases. It has been reduced by a nearly a third since the start of December and we have doubled the number of asylum decision makers in post over the past two years.”

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House Republicans to probe Gary Gensler’s deleted texts

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House Republicans to probe Gary Gensler’s deleted texts

House Republicans to probe Gary Gensler’s deleted texts

A group of House Republicans said they’re engaging with the SEC’s Office of Inspector General to find out more about former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s deleted text messages.

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SEC staff open to advisers using trust companies as crypto custodians

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SEC staff open to advisers using trust companies as crypto custodians

SEC staff open to advisers using trust companies as crypto custodians

The SEC’s Division of Investment Management said it wouldn’t recommend that the agency take action against advisers who use a state trust company as a crypto custodian.

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Sir Keir Starmer says he will take ‘no more lectures’ from Nigel Farage – and warns of ‘fight for the soul of our country’

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Sir Keir Starmer says he will take 'no more lectures' from Nigel Farage - and warns of 'fight for the soul of our country'

Sir Keir Starmer has said he will take “no more lectures” from Nigel Farage, as he warned that the next four years will be “a fight for the soul of our country” against Reform UK.

In a speech setting out his vision of “national renewal” for Britain, the prime minister hit out at “snake oil merchants on the right, on the left”, and questioned whether Mr Farage and his party “genuinely love our country”.

Sir Keir also asked for “patience” as he implements the “change” he has promised, which comes after a challenging first 14 months in power, with Reform UK continuing to top the opinion polls, and dissent within his own party in the form of a series of interviews by Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham criticising the direction of the government.

In an hour-long speech at the Labour Party conference, the prime minister declared that the UK is at “a fork in the road”, saying: “We can choose decency, or we can choose division; renewal or decline; a country proud of its values, in control of its future, or one that succumbs against the grain of our history to the politics of grievance. It is a test, a fight for the soul of our country.”

Sir Keir argued the “path of renewal” he wants to set the country on is “long”, and “requires decisions that are not cost-free or easy, decisions that will not always be comfortable for our party”. But the reward, he said, is “a new country, a fairer country, a land of dignity and respect”.

Analysis: Speech a success for PM – but biggest issue in UK politics ignored

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How did the PM perform at conference?

He hit out at politicians who “tell you there’s a quick fix, a miracle cure, tax cuts that magically pay for themselves, a wealth tax that somehow solves every problem”.

“We can all see these snake oil merchants on the right, on the left, but be in no doubt, none of them have any interest in national renewal because decline is good for their business,” the prime minister said.

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‘That’s not pride, that’s racism’

Starmer calls on party to ‘fight Reform’

In a lengthy attack directly on Reform UK, Sir Keir said: “Think about it, when was the last time that you heard Nigel Farage say anything positive about Britain’s future? He can’t. He doesn’t like Britain, doesn’t believe in Britain, wants you to doubt it just as much as he does. So he resorts to grievance.”

He continued: “The question I ask seriously of Nigel Farage and Reform is, do they love our country? Do they want to serve our country? All of it – our beautiful, tolerant, diverse country, every region, nation and city? Or do they just want to stir the pot of division?”

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YouGov: Farage set to be next PM

He issued a rallying cry to the Labour Party to “fight Reform with everything that this movement has”.

He went on: “If you are a patriot, whether you vote Labour or not, if you want to stand against grievance and renew Britain, then this is your fight too. Because even in a world this dangerous, I do think the politics of grievance is the biggest threat we face because it attacks who we are.”

The prime minister added that he will “fight with every breath I have, fight for working people, fight for the tolerant, decent, respectful Britain that I know”.

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Cabinet reacts to Starmer speech

Starmer is ‘unfit to be PM’

In response, Mr Farage said in a video message online: “I used to think the prime minister was a decent man, somebody that I could talk to and chat to. We might disagree on worldview, but I thought he was a profoundly decent human being.

“I am completely shocked at his behaviour. I hope when he wakes up tomorrow morning, he feels ashamed of what he has done.

“This is a desperate last throw of the dice for the prime minister, who’s in deep trouble. A prime minister who can’t even command the support of half of his own party. But I’m sorry to say, I now believe he is unfit to be the prime minister of our country.”

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Farage hits back at Starmer

The Conservative Party barely got a mention in the hour-long speech, underscoring where Sir Keir believes the battle lines will be drawn at the next general election, expected in 2029.

But speaking to broadcasters afterwards, party leader Kemi Badenoch said: “I just thought it was really extraordinary that Keir Starmer could not explain how he was going to improve the economy.”

She described the fight between Sir Keir and Mr Farage as “two boys squabbling in the playground”, and said she wants to focus on how “the people in government can make life better”.

Read more:
Farage on course to be next PM, mega poll projects
Almost two in three Labour members back Burnham over Starmer
Streeting says Labour ‘need Angela Rayner back’

PM sets out the ‘purpose’ of his government

As he declared Reform UK “the enemy of national renewal”, Sir Keir set out his vision of the future of the country, saying: “At the end of this hard road, there will be a new country, a fairer country, a land of dignity and respect. Everyone seen. Everyone valued.

“Wealth creation in every single community. Working people in control of their public services. The mindless bureaucracy that chokes enterprise removed, so we can build and keep building. Clean British energy powering our homes. Technology harnessed to drive us forward. Our flags flying proudly as we celebrate difference and oppose racism.”

He acknowledged that the public is “losing faith”, and people are feeling “ground down”, saying: “Politics has made them question Britain. And could you blame them? They’ve been nothing but patient.”

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Was that a campaign speech?

The prime minister said Britain is not “broken” – something he has previously argued himself – but said that his solution to the problems Britain faces is an economy working “from the grassroots”, secure borders and controlled migration, and public and private investment in everything from education to infrastructure.

“Every decision” the government has made in the past 14 months has been about “changing the way we create wealth, reforming public services, giving people more control over our future”, he argued.

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The prime minister announced “NHS Online”, which will allow patients to access prescriptions, book scans and tests, receive clinical advice, and manage appointments through the NHS app.

And he also announced he is scrapping the Blair-era target of 50% of all young people going to university, in favour of two-thirds going to either universities or “gold-standard apprenticeships”.

Concluding his speech, the prime minister said: “People say that a nation like ours can’t be a community – that it is too diverse, too divided. I reject that. That goes against everything I stand for, everything I’ve served, everything I understand about this great country that I love.

“So no matter how many times people tell me it can’t be done, I believe Britain can come together, that we can pursue a shared destination, that we can unite around the common good. That is my ambition.

“The purpose of this government – end decline, reform our public services, grow our economy from the grassroots and with resolve, with respect, with a flag in our hands, we will renew this country until we can say with total conviction that Britain is built for all.”

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