How much is MLB’s ultimate unicorn worth? The Shohei Ohtani True Value Calculator
Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.
This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.
Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
— nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.
Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.
Calculating His Base Value
No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.
To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.
The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.
Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.
Avg. Annual Value
$76m
Over the last 3 years
= 1 win = $8m
Risk & Potential for injury
Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.
Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.
Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.
In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.
The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.
Projecting Future Worth
So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.
projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years
Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.
Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.
Aging Adjustment
-$122.3m
Potential loss of value
Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.
Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?
Free Agent Comparisons
Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.
calculating the low end
By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.
By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.
Most similar free agents
$303.5m
calculating the high end
However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.
If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.
Priciest Peers
$624m
These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.
Where Could He Go?
There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.
So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.
Los Angeles Angels
2023 Payroll: $221m
Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Payroll: $236m
San Francisco Giants
2023 Payroll: $196m
Seattle Mariners
2023 Payroll: $153m
New York Mets
2023 Payroll: $346m
Chicago Cubs
2023 Payroll: $189m
Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.
Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.
San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.
Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?
New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.
Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.
With less than two months left before college football is back in full swing, we’re taking a look at players who could be considered sleepers — under-the-radar players who could make a big impact — on each team in our post-spring top 25.
From true freshmen who could make a name for themselves to players coming back from injury to transfers looking to make an immediate impact, there are plenty of players to watch for this fall.
Our reporters break down the potential sleepers they’re keeping tabs on.
Sleeper: C Nick Dawkins
Offensive linemen naturally get overlooked, and Dawkins is no exception, but he once again will occupy a vital role as Penn State chases its first Big Ten title since 2016 and its first national title since 1986. Dawkins is at the heart of an offensive line that has stabilized and excelled in recent years. He earned honorable mention All-Big Ten honors last fall, when he served as a captain, started all 16 games and allowed only two sacks. The 6-foot-4, 297-pound senior has drawn excellent reviews from the staff and will lead a line protecting quarterback Drew Allar and creating space for running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. — Adam Rittenberg
Sleeper: WR Tyler Brown
One of the reasons Clemson is expected to compete for a national championship this season is the return of its stellar receiver group, which made vast improvements a year ago to help the Tigers offense rediscover its footing. Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore have received the bulk of the headlines nationally, but don’t forget about Brown, a freshman All-American in 2023 who was forced to take a redshirt last season with an ankle injury. Coach Dabo Swinney spoke highly about Brown during spring practice and is expecting him to have a big role in the offense. Adding depth to a position that had been a weak spot until last season is crucial. — Andrea Adelson
Sleeper: TE Jack Endries
Endries had a breakout season at Cal last year, catching 56 passes for 623 yards and two touchdowns, making him less of an off-the-radar prospect. But the former Golden Bears tight end signed with Texas in April and slides into a talented Longhorns offense. With star recruits Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore returning at receiver, 1,000-yard rusher Quintrevion Wisner back at running back with Cedric Baxter and Christian Clark returning from injuries alongside him, Arch Manning will have weapons. But Manning singled out Endries, a former walk-on, as someone who could emerge as a household name by season’s end as he solidifies a position of need after Gunnar Helm, who caught 60 passes for 786 yards and seven TDs last year, developed into a fourth-round pick of the Tennessee Titans and Amari Niblack transferred to Texas A&M. — Dave Wilson
Sleeper: RB Bo Walker
Walker wasn’t the most heralded prospect in Georgia’s most recent recruiting class, but he turned some heads in spring practice with his physical style and speed. Walker ran for more than 2,000 yards as a high school junior before spending his senior year at a smaller private school. Nate Frazier and Illinois transfer Josh McCray will probably be the top two backs entering preseason camp, but Walker has a chance to earn playing time. Would you expect anything less from a tailback named both Bo and Walker in the SEC? — Mark Schlabach
Sleeper: WR Carnell Tate
Tate was overshadowed by first-round pick Emeka Egbuka and true freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith last season. But Tate still played a key role for the Buckeyes, starting every game for the national champions. In the playoff semifinals against Texas, he made the Longhorns pay for their coverages taking away Smith by hauling in a game-high seven passes for 87 yards. With Egbuka gone to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tate is set to play an ever bigger role for the Buckeyes as a junior. He could easily surpass the 52 receptions and 733 receiving yards he had last season, and he should be a valuable wingman to Smith in yet another talented Ohio State receiving corps. — Jake Trotter
Sleeper: WR Barion Brown
If you’re familiar with Brown from his high school days, you may not consider him a sleeper. But the Kentucky transfer could finally reach his full potential in Baton Rouge. After a standout freshman season in Lexington, he never made the big statistical leaps many expected. But with Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback and other talent at receiver (Aaron Anderson, Oklahoma transfer Nic Anderson) and tight end (Trey’Dez Green, Oklahoma transfer Bauer Sharp), perhaps Brown can break out in 2025. — Harry Lyles Jr.
Sleeper: DL Bryce Young
With Rylie Mills and Howard Cross III leaving for the NFL, the Fighting Irish are looking for another player who can rush the quarterback. The answer might be sophomore Bryce Young, who certainly looks the part at 6 feet, 7 inches and 273 pounds. Last season, he played in all 16 games and had 23 tackles with a team-high three blocked kicks. Young has the right potential too. His father, Bryant Young, was an All-American at Notre Dame and a Pro Football Hall of Famer after a standout career with the 49ers. His mother, Kristin, ran track and field for the Fighting Irish. — Schlabach
Sleeper: WR Malik Benson
It’s difficult to call a four-star wide receiver a sleeper, but given the kind of season Florida State had last year, Benson was not exactly the talk of the sport after putting up 25 catches for 311 yards and one touchdown. Now in Eugene, Benson has the tools to be exactly the kind of wideout that flourishes in Will Stein’s offense. With a new quarterback in Dante Moore taking the reins and Evan Stewart dealing with a serious injury, I wouldn’t be surprised if Benson becomes Moore’s top target this coming season. — Paolo Uggetti
Sleeper: S Bray Hubbard
Now in his third season in the program, Hubbard is poised to be an All-SEC caliber player and will team with a healthy Keon Sabb to give Alabama one of the best safety duos in the SEC. Hubbard, who chose Alabama out of high school over Mississippi State, Navy and Tulane, started the final six games a year ago after Sabb suffered a season-ending injury against Tennessee and made a name for himself with three interceptions. Look for Hubbard in 2025 to be one of the top names on Alabama’s defense. — Chris Low
Sleeper: RB LJ Martin
After rushing for 518 and 718 yards in the past two seasons, Martin has steadily become a key player for BYU, but he hasn’t quite broken out nationally. He already figured to see his role grow as a junior in 2025, but with quarterback Jake Retzlaff set to transfer, Martin could be relied on more heavily — especially early in the season as the QB situation gets settled. Martin had a pair of 100-yard rushing games last season and finished with a strong performance in the bowl win against Colorado, with 88 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns. — Kyle Bonagura
Sleeper: S Miles Scott
Miles Scott isn’t even the most decorated Scott in the Illinois secondary — Xavier (no relation) earned first-team All-Big Ten honors in 2024 — but contributes to a unit that could be among the Big Ten’s best this fall. Miles had two interceptions last season and finished fifth on the team with 55 tackles (33 solo). The team captain also forced and recovered a fumble last fall. Scott has played in all 38 games during his Illinois career, starting the past 25, beginning his career as a walk-on wide receiver before moving to safety. He joins his roommate Xavier Scott, leading tackler Matthew Bailey, cornerback Torrie Cox Jr. and others in one of the nation’s most experienced secondaries. — Rittenberg
Sleeper: CB Nyland Green
The Arizona State defense returns eight starters, including both cornerbacks (Keith Abney II and Javan Robinson) — the Sun Devils are blessed with continuity on that side of the ball that most top-25 teams don’t have. But that makes cornerback Nyland Green one heck of a luxury add: The Purdue transfer, who started his career as a blue-chipper at Georgia, was an all-or-nothing playmaker with an overwhelmed Boilermakers defense last year, but in more select roles, with better experience and talent around him, he could turn into a major difference-maker for the defending Big 12 champs. — Bill Connelly
Sleeper: Edge Bryan Thomas
Much of the attention within the Gamecocks’ pass-rush depth will be centered on sophomore phenom Dylan Stewart and Charlotte transfer Demon Clowney, cousin of former two-time All American Jadeveon Clowney. But as South Carolina works to replace the production of 2024 SEC sack leader Kyle Kennard, fourth-year edge Thomas will have an important role to play as well. The 6-foot-2, 247-pounder logged career highs in sacks (4.5) and total tackles (23) a year ago, and he’s poised to step into a starting role opposite Stewart this fall following Kennard’s jump to the NFL. If the Gamecocks are going to feature one of the nation’s fiercest pass rushes again in 2025, Thomas will have to be a big part of it. — Eli Lederman
Sleeper: DL Elijah O’Neal
O’Neal turned in a productive 2024 season, finishing with four sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss in what was expected to be his final season in Tempe. However, as a former junior college transfer, O’Neal benefited from the ruling that granted juco transfers an extra year of eligibility and will return for his final season with a chance to develop into a more well-rounded pass rusher. He started six games last year, and with the strong possibility of an expanded role, it wouldn’t be a surprise if O’Neal chases double-digit TFLs or sacks. — Bonagura
Sleeper: RB Derrick McFall
Aside from SMU’s game against FCS Houston Baptist, McFall got just eight carries as a true freshman in 2024, but he flashed a skill set that could make him an apt replacement for Brashard Smith in the Mustangs’ backfield. A four-star recruit, McFall is quick, elusive and versatile — a lot like his predecessor at SMU. At 5-11, 183 pounds, he’s still looking to fill out his frame a bit, but his explosiveness and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield figure to be serious weapons. More importantly, with Smith on to the NFL and LJ Johnson‘s transfer, McFall is the clear favorite to fill a major hole on SMU’s offense. — David Hale
Sleeper: DL Romello Height
A transfer from Georgia Tech, Height is not necessarily an unknown. But for as bad as the Texas Tech defense was last season (only Tulsa allowed more passing yards, and the Red Raiders allowed 35 points or more eight times), Height could play a massive role in Lubbock if he’s able to help fix what was a painful watch for Texas Tech fans at times in 2024. The more high-profile transfer on this defensive line unquestionably is David Bailey, who comes in from Stanford, but Height could very well become a name that Red Raiders fans will become familiar with given his potential. — Lyles Jr.
Sleeper: RB Roman Hemby
Stepping into a Hoosiers backfield without a settled returning starter, Maryland transfer Hemby has the opportunity to emerge as Indiana’s leader on the ground in 2025. Hemby hasn’t matched the 989-yard, 10-touchdown production he delivered in 2022 in either of his past two seasons, but the 6-foot, 208-pound rusher has averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry in each of his past three seasons and can be a threat in the passing game as well. Indiana spread its carries nearly evenly between top rushers Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton a year ago, and will likely do the same again with upperclassmen Kaelon Black and Lee Beebe Jr. also vying for carries. But Hemby has the potential to break through in a big way in 2025. — Lederman
Sleeper: Edge Tobi Osunsanmi
Kansas State returns four starters from last year’s defensive front six, but the Wildcats will need someone to replace the lost production of sacks leader Brendan Mott (13.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks). Enter Tobi Osunsanmi. The converted linebacker played a backup role last season, averaging about 22 snaps per game, but he actually averaged more havoc plays (TFLs, forced fumbles, passes defended) per snap than Mott — a 3.0% rate to Mott’s 2.5%. Between Osunsanmi and sophomore Chiddi Obiazor (2.5% havoc rate at 23 snaps per game), K-State has a couple of exciting options on the edge up front. — Connelly
Sleeper: LB Myles Graham
We saw what Graham was capable of as a freshman for the Gators with 30 tackles. He also had three tackles for loss, one sack, an interception and a forced fumble. With a line that should only be stronger in front of him, along with playing next to Grayson Howard, Graham has the potential to take another step in 2025. The great Florida teams of the 21st century have all had good linebacker play, and it feels like Graham could play that part for this team as it looks to rise again. — Lyles Jr.
Sleeper: CB Zeke Berry
From Mike Sainristil to Will Johnson, Michigan’s dominant defenses in recent years have featured a big-time cornerback. Berry is primed to become the next one, on the heels of a breakout junior season. After starting the year at nickelback, Berry slid to the outside following an injury to Johnson and thrived. Berry finished the year with 37 tackles and a team-high 11 pass breakups. He also forced a fumble to go along with his two interceptions. If Berry can take another step forward as the leader of the Michigan secondary, he quietly figures to be one of the top corners in the Big Ten — if not the country. — Trotter
Sleeper: S Zechariah Poyser
You may have heard of Poyser, one of the top available players in the transfer portal this past season. But he should still be considered a sleeper because of the impact he is projected to have in his first year with the Hurricanes. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound safety played his first two seasons at Jacksonville State, earning Freshman All-America honors as a redshirt freshman this past season with 75 tackles and three interceptions. His addition gives the Hurricanes an instant upgrade at safety, where they struggled at times last season. Miami made other additions at defensive back in the portal, but safety was the most glaring area of need and it appears to be filled. — Adelson
Sleeper: S D’Angelo Hutchinson
The Cardinals struggled against the pass last season, and they’ll enter 2025 with a markedly different secondary that comes with its own share of questions. But one carryover from 2024 could help provide some answers. Hutchinson, a 6-foot-3 senior, saw action in all 13 games last season and came on strong down the stretch, including a standout performance in a win over Clemson in which he racked up nine tackles, two pass breakups and a blocked kick. Hutchinson brings length and speed to the back end, and head coach Jeff Brohm said he thinks the veteran could be in line for a breakout campaign. — Hale
Sleeper: CB Tyreek Chappell
Chappell returns after missing almost all of last season with an lower leg injury suffered in a non-contact setting in practice, making just three tackles. The Aggies’ secondary play was particularly frustrating to Mike Elko as last year wore on, and the return of Chappell, a former starter who was a three-star recruit and the team’s top defensive newcomer in 2021, is a key to the Aggies’ hopes of bolstering that unit. With the return of Will Lee III and the addition of Georgia transfer Julian Humphrey, Chappell, who had 88 tackles in his first two seasons, but just 24 in the past two, might be overlooked by fans. But inside the program, Chappell is expected to have a big year at the nickel spot. — Wilson
Sleeper: WR Cayden Lee
It’s odd to classify Lee as a sleeper following his breakout sophomore campaign in 2024, but hype around the third-year pass catcher has been buried this offseason amidst the Rebels’ additions of five transfer receivers, headlined by De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III. Lee finished second among Ole Miss receivers a year ago with 57 receptions, which he converted into 874 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. As the Rebels enter a new era at quarterback in 2025 with first-year starter Austin Simmons, Lee has the potential to become a critical, go-to target, particularly if he can find the end zone more. — Lederman
Sleeper: WR Zion Kearney
The Sooners were besieged with injuries at the receiver position last season, and some of their more talented pass catchers hit the transfer portal, including Nic Anderson. With new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and his Air Raid offense coming to Norman, that means Oklahoma will utilize even more receivers. Kearney, a true sophomore, has a chance to make a big jump after playing as a backup in 11 games as a freshman. He has the size (6-1, 207 pounds) and speed (4.28 40-yard dash in high school) to be a staple in the Sooners’ passing game, especially with John Mateer stepping in at quarterback. — Low
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Kristen Shilton
The Vancouver Canucks have come to terms with forward Brock Boeser on a new seven-year contract, carrying a $7.25 million AAV.
Canucks GM Patrik Allvin announced the deal on Tuesday during the first hour of NHL free agency. Boeser, 28, was an unrestricted free agent on a previously expiring contract.
Drafted by Vancouver 23rd overall in the 2015 NHL draft, Boeser has collected 204 goals and 434 points in 554 games with the Canucks to date. A top-six scoring threat, Boeser has elite playmaking skills and the potential to produce big numbers offensively. He had his best year offensively in 2023-24, producing 40 goals and 73 points in 81 games.
Boeser didn’t hit those marks again last season — settling for 25 goals and 50 points in 75 games — but was still second amongst teammates in output. He also plays a prominent role on Vancouver’s power play and when he can generate opportunities at 5-on-5, he is a true difference-maker up front for the Canucks.
The extension is a happy ending for Vancouver and Boeser. When the regular season ended, Boeser admitted “it’s tough to say” whether he’d be back with the Canucks. Boeser reportedly turned down a previous five-year extension offer with the club and Allvin subsequently looked into deals for him at the March trade deadline, with no takers. Boeser looked — and sounded — poised to explore his options on the open market.
Ultimately, Boeser decided to stay put by committing the best years of his career to the Canucks.
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