White-collar jobs will be among the first to be impacted by artificial intelligence, IBM chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna told CNBC in an exclusive interview aired on Tuesday.
He told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” generative AI and large language models have the potential to “make every enterprise process more productive.”
“That means you can get the same work done with fewer people. That’s just the nature of productivity. I actually believe that the first set of roles that will get impacted are — what I call — back office, white-collar work,” said Krishna.
He added that there is “a disinflation in the demographics” leading to a decline in the size of the working age population. “So you need to get productivity, otherwise quality of life is going to fall. And AI, I think, is the only answer we got.”
A boom in demand for AI-powered chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT has led to a flurry of companies trying to launch their own large-language models.
IBM was an early mover in AI, investing in and developing its own platform well before the ChatGPT hype. From 2004 to 2011, IBM worked on a supercomputer called Watson. That strategy dovetailed with a move away from computer hardware, especially after it sold its personal computer division to Lenovo in 2005.
It’s absolutely not displacing — it’s augmenting. The more labor we got, especially if it’s not human based at all, we can create more GDP. We should all feel better about it.
Arvind Krishna
IBM chairman and CEO
In May, IBM announced WatsonX, an AI building tool that allows clients to build, train and deploy machine learning models. It came about 15 months after IBM sold its data and analytics unit Watson Health following years of unprofitability.
That same month, Bloomberg reported that IBM plan to pause hiring for roles it thinks could be replaced with AI. That’s about 7,800 jobs in departments such as human resources that could be done with AI and automation, Krishna said at that time. In January, CNBC confirmed IBM was planning to cut around 3,900 jobs.
IBM and its wholly owned subsidiaries employ 288,300 employees across more than 175 countries, the firm said in its 2022 annual report.
“So what I said was, we are not going to backfill those [white-collar] roles for the next five years. But you get digital labor or AI bots, augmenting and working alongside their fellow humans doing that work. So that is where the 7,800 [number] came from,” Krishna told CNBC’s Martin Soong.
“It’s absolutely not displacing — it’s augmenting. The more labor we got, especially if it’s not human based at all, we can create more GDP. We should all feel better about it,” said Krishna.
Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong made a similar comment in June, saying although AI could disrupt the labor market, it won’t kill jobs completely. He added that technology could even make humans more productive and create more jobs.
AI potential
With large-language models, you use a lot of data, but no labeling. So very few people to produce a map model.
Arvind Krishna
IBM chairman and CEO
During the firm’s second-quarter earnings call in July, Krishna often mentioned the significance of AI in IT operations, improved automation, customer service, augmenting HR and more. During the quarter, data and artificial intelligence products were the fastest growing part of IBM’s software business, its largest division.
Krishna mentioned how Watson beat humans on “Jeopardy!” in 2011 and said it was an example of “hundreds of thousands of people and a lot of trained PhDs” being deployed to “create one model to do one thing.”
“With large-language models, you use a lot of data, but no labeling. So very few people to produce a map model. And now every weekend, you can create a new instance for a new task. That means your cost of a model for a task has come down by almost 100 times,” said Krishna.
“That is amazing. And that is what gives us confidence that this is the moment to go commercialize and modify.”
Co-founder and Chief Science Officer at Hugging Face, Thomas Wolf, speaks at the opening ceremony of the Web Summit, in Lisbon, Portugal, November 11, 2024.
Pedro Nunes | Reuters
Current artificial intelligence models from labs like OpenAI are unlikely to lead to major scientific breakthroughs, a tech co-founder said, pouring cold water on some of the hype around the technology and claims by major figures in the field.
The comments by Thomas Wolf, co-founder of $4.5 billion AI startup Hugging Face, are in stake contrast to those by major names in AI including OpenAI boss Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.
When Wolf talks about scientific breakthroughs, he means novel ideas like those at a Nobel Prize level. Examples including Nicolaus Copernicus who theorized the sun was at the center of the universe and other planets move round it.
Wolf explained a couple of issues with chatbots right now. The first is that these products like ChatGPT and others often agree or align with the person prompting it. Think back to if you’ve asked a chatbot a prompt and it will tell you how interesting or great that question is.
The second is that the models underpinning these chatbots are designed to “predict the most likely next token” or “word” in a sentence.
However, he noted two key traits of scientists. The first is that scientists who make major breakthroughs are often contrarian and question what others are saying.
“The scientist is not trying to predict the most likely next word. He’s trying to predict this very novel thing that’s actually surprisingly unlikely, but actually is true,” Wolf said.
The Hugging Face co-founder has been thinking about this topic for the last few months. His interest was sparked after he read an essay penned by Anthropic’s Amodei, who posited that “AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”
That got Wolf thinking about the state of AI and how this won’t be possible, in his view, with the current crop of models.
Wolf said that these chatbots and tools will likely be used as a sort of “co-pilot for a scientist” where they are used for research to help the human generate new ideas.
To some extent, this has been happening already. Google DeepMind’s AlphaFold product has helped to analyze protein structures which the company has promised could aid scientists in discovering new drugs.
But there are some new startups that are hoping to take AI one step further into being able to make scientific breakthroughs, including Lila Sciences and FutureHouse.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited at Hsinchu Science Park.
Annabelle Chih | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Taiwan will not accept Washington’s proposal to locally manufacture half the chips it currently supplies to the U.S., the island’s top trade negotiator said.
Speaking to reporters, Cheng Li-chiun, also the country’s vice premier, said on Wednesday that the proposal for a “50-50” split in semiconductor production was not even discussed, as she returned from trade talks in the U.S., according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency.
Cheng said the talks were focused on lowering tariff rates, securing exemptions from tariff stacking — additional duties — and reducing levies on Taiwanese exports. Taiwan currently faces a “reciprocal” tariff rate of 20%.
Washington has held discussions with Taipei about the “50-50” split in semiconductor production, which would cut American reliance on Taiwan, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last weekend in an interview to NewsNation, adding that currently 95% of the U.S. demand was met via chips produced within Taiwan.
“My objective, and this administration’s objective, is to get chip manufacturing significantly onshored — we need to make our own chips,” Lutnick said. “The idea that I pitched [Taiwan] was, let’s get to 50-50. We’re producing half, and you’re producing half.”
U.S. President Donald Trump had also taken aim at the island’s dominance in chips earlier this year, accusing it of “stealing” the U.S.’ chip business.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comments.
Lutnick’s proposal has been condemned by Taiwan’s politicians, with Eric Chu, chairman of the island’s principal opposition party Kuomintang, calling it “an act of exploitation and plunder,” according to the Central News Agency report.
“No one can sell out Taiwan or TSMC, and no one can undermine Taiwan’s silicon shield,” Chu said, referring to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s leader in advanced chip manufacturing.
Taiwan’s critical position in global chips production is believed to have assured the island nation’s defense against direct military action from China, often referred to as the “Silicon Shield” theory.
In his NewsNation interview, Lutnick downplayed the “Silicon Shield,” arguing that Taiwan would be safer with more balanced chip production between Washington and Taipei. Beijing views the democratically governed island of Taiwan as its own territory and has vowed to reclaim it by force if necessary, while Taipei rejects those claims.
Taiwan People’s Party Chairman Huang Kuo-chang reportedly called Lutnick’s proposal an attempt to “hollow out the foundations of Taiwan’s technology sector.”
Headquarters of Samsung in Mountain View, California, on October 28, 2018.
Smith Collection/gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images
Shares of South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix surged Thursday, a day after the two companies partnered with artificial-intelligence major OpenAI as part of the U.S. firm’s Stargate initiative.
Samsung shares hit their highest since January 2021, rising over 4%, while SK Hynix stock surged more than 9% — highest since 2000.
OpenAI said in a statement that this partnership will “focus on increasing the supply of advanced memory chips essential for next-generation AI and expanding data center capacity in Korea.”
The ChatGPT-maker said the two South Korean firms plan to scale up production of advanced memory chips, which are critical to power its AI models.
The announcement came as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman met with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Seoul, and the top leaders at Samsung and SK Hynix.
OpenAI has also signed a series of agreements to explore developing next-generation AI data centers in South Korea, including with the Korean Ministry of Science and ICT, telecommunications operator SK Telecom, as well as with Samsung subsidiaries.
Earlier this month, SK Hynix announced that it was ready to mass-produce its next-generation high-bandwidth memory chips, cementing its leading position in the AI value chain. HBM is a type of memory that is used in chipsets for artificial-intelligence computing, including in chips from global AI giant Nvidia — a major client of SK Hynix.
HBM4 chips are expected to be the main AI memory chip needed for Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin architecture — a more powerful AI chip for global data centers.
SK Hynix has been a main chip supplier to Nvidia, while rival Samsung has reportedly been working to get its HBM4 chips certified by Nvidia.
Samsung has traditionally been the market leader in memory, but its position has been threatened by SK Hynix that has taken a lead in the HBM space. A report from Counterpoint Research in July found that SK Hynix had caught up with Samsung’s memory revenues in the second quarter, with both now vying for the top position in the global memory market.
Samsung’s second-quarter earnings missed expectations, as profits from its chip business declined almost 94% year on year, although its Chief Financial Officer Soon-cheol Park said that the company expects a rebound in the second half of the year.