SEC’s first deadlines to approve 7 Bitcoin ETFs coming over the next week
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission is facing its first deadlines to decide on seven spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund applications, with the latest being Sept. 4 amid its defeat to Grayscale Investments in a U.S. federal appeals court.
Investment firm Bitwise will learn if its ETF will win the SEC’s approval on Sept. 1 while BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco and Wisdomtree will all be awaiting the SEC’s decision for their funds by Sept. 2, according to several SEC filings.
Meanwhile, Valkyrie is set to hear back from the SEC on Sept. 4.
The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled on Aug. 29 that the SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF was “arbitrary and capricious” — but this doesn’t mean the SEC must approve Grayscale’s application or others in the future, says Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
In an Aug. 29 Bloomberg interview, Seyffart explained that Grayscale’s win “definitely” increases the odds of a successful outcome for the next wave of applicants.
He isn’t sure when that day may come, though, as the SEC can delay its decisions and has two more proposed deadlines for each fund before being forced to make a final decision on the 240th-day post-filing.
For the awaiting applicants, the final deadlines for the SEC are all in mid-March next year.
99.99999% of the world doesn’t know that the SEC has to decide on 7 BTC ETFs within the next 3 days:
-blackrock
-bitwise
-vaneck
-wisdomtree
-invesco
-fidelity
-valkyriethe suits at our doorstep
— odin free (@odin_free) August 29, 2023
What are the SEC’s options post-Grayscale decision?
After the Aug. 29 ruling in favor of Grayscale, the regulator has 90 days to file an appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court or apply for an en banc review — where a full circuit court can overturn a ruling made by a three-judge panel.
However, the SEC hasn’t made clear what its next move will be.
If the SEC doesn’t appeal the court will need to specify how its ruling is executed which could include instructing the SEC to approve Grayscale’s application, or at the very least revisit it.
Related: BTC price jumps to 2-week highs on Grayscale vs. SEC Bitcoin ETF win
Either way, Seyffart only saw two viable options for the regulator.
The first is for it to concede defeat and approve Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC to a Bitcoin spot ETF.
Alternatively, the SEC would need to revoke the listing of Bitcoin futures ETFs entirely or deny Grayscale’s application based on a new argument, said Seyffart.
The second potential avenue is to deny on reasons not used before/yet… which i have been saying for months could have to do with Custody or settlement of #Bitcoin which is not something that futures ETFs have to worry about. SEC has made a lot of noise around custodians
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 29, 2023
However, fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas considered the odds of the SEC revoking the Bitcoin futures ETFs as “highly unlikely” because of the SEC’s reported openness to Ethereum futures ETFs.
Lol, this guy turned the last paragraph of Judge Rao’s legal smackdown today into an MGMT-esque sythe banger. Really captures the mood rn, well done.. https://t.co/BBJZR5O6To
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 29, 2023
Magazine: Hall of Flame: Wolf Of All Streets worries about a world where Bitcoin hits $1M
Tanim Rasul, chief operating officer at Canadian crypto exchange NDAX, said Canada “got it wrong” categorizing stablecoins as securities in 2022, and the country needs to realize that every other regulatory regime is looking at stablecoins as payment instruments.
Rasul made the remarks during a panel on May 13 at the Blockchain Futurist Conference in Toronto, pointing to Europe’s crypto regulatory framework as a model for Canada to consider:
“I’m sure the regulators are wondering if this was the right choice to approach stablecoins as a security. […] I would just say, look at MiCA, look at the way they’re approaching stablecoins. It’s a payment instrument. It should be regulated as such.”
The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) classified stablecoins as “securities and/or derivatives” in December 2022, following “recent events in the crypto market,” such as the dramatic collapse of crypto exchange FTX just a month before.
Related: What Canada’s new Liberal PM Mark Carney means for crypto
The agency elaborated on stablecoin rules in February and October of 2023, placing such tokens under the umbrella of “value-referenced crypto assets.”
Canada’s stance on digital assets led many top crypto companies, including Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Paxos, to scale back operations in the local market. Crypto exchange Gemini also announced exit plans in September 2024.
The regulatory setback, however, hasn’t stopped Canada’s digital asset market from flourishing. According to Grand View Research, the local crypto industry posted revenue of $224 million in 2024, higher than in previous years. It is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18.6% until 2030, when it is forecast to reach $617.5 million in annual revenue.
Related: Bitstamp’s departure from Canada is ‘timing issue,’ says CEO
Stablecoins have emerged as key crypto use case
Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged to a fiat currency, have emerged as a key use case for digital assets. According to DefiLlama, the current market capitalization for all stablecoins is at $242.8 billion as of May 14, up 51.9% in the past 12 months.
Nation-states and economic blocs are increasingly working on stablecoin regulations to tackle the rising usage across the world. While the most used stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, there is demand for stablecoins pegged to other fiat currencies.
Magazine: Legal Panel: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight
Summer Mersinger, one of four commissioners currently serving at the US financial regulatory body Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will become the next CEO of the digital asset advocacy group the Blockchain Association (BA).
In a May 14 notice, the Blockchain Association said its current CEO, Kristin Smith, would step down for Mersinger on May 16, allowing an interim head of the group to work until the CFTC commissioner assumes the role on June 2. Though her term at the CFTC was expected to last until April 2028, the BA said Mersinger is set to leave the agency on May 30.
The departure of Mersinger, who has served in one of the CFTC’s Republican seats since 2022, opens the way for US President Donald Trump to nominate another member to the financial regulator. Rules require that no more than three commissioners belong to the same political party.
Like the Securities and Exchange Commission, the CFTC is one of the significant US financial regulators whose policies impact digital assets. Lawmakers in Congress are currently working to pass a market structure bill to clarify the roles each agency could take in overseeing and regulating crypto.
Related: KuCoin’s settlement with CFTC in flux after Trump policy shift
New leadership at the Blockchain Association had been expected since Smith announced her departure on April 1 to become the next president of the Solana Policy Institute. A spokesperson for the Blockchain Association had not responded to Cointelegraph’s request for comment at the time of publication.
Some of the biggest crypto firms in the US, including Coinbase, Ripple Labs and Chainlink Labs, are members of the Association. The organization “support[s] a future-forward, pro-innovation national policy and regulatory framework for the crypto economy,” according to its website.
Changing the leadership at a major US financial regulator
A nominee of former US President Joe Biden, Mersinger has called for standardized crypto-related policies and said the CFTC was the “ideal regulator for the cryptocurrency spot market.” Some expected she would lead the regulator following the election of Trump and the departure of then-CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, but Commissioner Caroline Pham took on the role in an acting capacity in January.
Trump chose former commissioner Brian Quintenz to chair the CFTC in February, but his nomination has not moved through the Senate for a vote in roughly three months. Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero reportedly said she plans to leave the agency once Quintenz is confirmed, potentially giving Trump the chance to nominate three new commissioners to fill the five-seat panel.
Any CFTC commissioner picked by the president needs a majority vote in the Senate to be confirmed for a five-year term or to fill in for a resigning member.
Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight
Bitcoin’s fluctuating correlation with US equities is raising questions about its role as a global safe-haven asset during periods of financial stress.
Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US stock market when analyzing the short-term, seven-day trailing correlation, according to new research from blockchain data provider RedStone Oracles, shared exclusively with Cointelegraph.
However, RedStone said that the 30-day indicator signals a “variable correlation” between Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 index, with the correlation coefficient ranging from -0.2 to 0.4.
This fluctuating correlation suggests that Bitcoin “doesn’t consistently function as a true hedge for equities” due to its lack of a strong negative correlation below -0.3, which is needed for “reliable counter movement during market stress,” the report said.
Related: $1B Bitcoin exits Coinbase in a day as analysts warn of supply shock
The research suggests that while Bitcoin may not be a dependable hedge against stock market declines, it offers value as a portfolio diversifier.
This fluctuating dynamic signals that Bitcoin often moves independently from other assets, potentially offering additional returns while other assets are struggling. Still, Bitcoin has yet to mirror the safe-haven dynamics of gold and government bonds, RedStone suggests.
Related: Nasdaq-listed GDC plans to buy Bitcoin and TRUMP memecoin for $300M
Bitcoin needs to “mature” before decoupling from stock market
While Bitcoin is poised to grow into a safe-haven asset in the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency still needs to “mature” as a global asset, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer at RedStone.
“Bitcoin still needs to mature before decoupling from stock markets,” Kazmierczak told Cointelegraph, adding:
“Increased institutional adoption will absolutely help — we’re already seeing this effect with corporate treasury investments reducing Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility and with BlackRock repetitively praising BTC as an asset in a portfolio.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin will see growing recognition as a portfolio diversifier, with an annualized return of over 230% for the past five years, which “significantly outperformed” both stocks and traditional safe-haven assets, Kazmierczak said, adding that “even a small 1–5% Bitcoin allocation can meaningfully enhance a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s declining volatility supports BTC’s growing maturity as a global financial asset. Bitcoin’s weekly volatility hit a 563-day low on April 30, a development that may signal more stable price action.
Bitcoin’s price volatility fell below the realized volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, signaling that investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term investment vehicle, Cointelegraph reported on May 13.
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