Zoopla says number of UK property sales on track to fall to lowest level in a decade
The number of house and flat sales in the UK this year is set to be the lowest in a decade, according to new figures from a leading property website.
Zoopla’s monthly house price index, which tracks the number of homes sold subject to contract, found levels were down a fifth so far compared to 2022.
It forecast that sales will be the lowest since 2012 by the end of the year, although it still expected around one million completions to be made in 2023.
It is the equivalent of every household in the country moving once every 23 years – far below the average of eight years, Zoopla said.
The firm said it “highlights the deep impact of recent economic changes on the housing market”.
It comes following a raft of figures from other property firms and lenders in recent months which also suggest a slump in the housing market.
They include the Nationwide Building Society, which said prices experienced the sharpest fall in 14 years in July.
However, the rising cost of borrowing is thought to have cancelled out any benefit, even though some lenders are now cutting mortgage rates.
Zoopla said the expected 21% decline in property sales by the end of 2023 was largely due to a fall in buyers with mortgages.
“We expect the number of mortgaged sales to drop 28% on last year. On the other hand, cash sales will fall just 1% compared to 2022,” the company said.
The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times in a row as it battles to bring down inflation and has warned they are likely to remain high for some time.
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Zoopla executive director Richard Donnell said: “The housing market continues to feel the impact of higher mortgage rates and cost of living pressures.
“It’s resulting in weaker demand from buyers, fewer sales and very low house price growth.”
But Mr Donnell said he expected the number of sales to “recover well” in the coming two to three years due to “more flexible working, demographic trends from an ageing population, the strong labour market and high immigration”.
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Renters now in the majority in UK
He added Zoopla expected mortgage rates to fall below 5% later this year, but warned it would be a “drawn-out process”.
“Any falls to mortgage rates are unlikely to impact the market and improve affordability further until at least the first half of 2024.
“This is why we’re less optimistic about house price growth, which looks set to stay within the +2% to -2% range for the foreseeable future,” Mr Donnell added.
The Zoopla report also found that UK house prices have risen 0.1% in the last year, which is also the slowest rate since 2012.
The annual change in the cost of buying a home in August ranged from a rise of 1.7% in Scotland to -1% in London, the firm said.
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “As wages rise relative to property prices, we know that once mortgage rates go low enough, we should see affordability to start to work its magic on the market again.
“The problem is that predicting exactly how low rates need to go, and when they’ll get there is a tricky business.”
Matt Thompson, head of sales at London-based estate agent Chestertons, said buyers had been more cautious and in some cases were delaying purchases.
He added: “However, there still are buyers who have already locked in a mortgage rate with their lender and are keen to secure a property before the rate expires.”
The suspended surgeon at Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge has been named as paediatric consultant Kuldeep Stohr.
Eight hundred patients operated on by Ms Stohr are having their cases urgently re-examined, after an external review found nine children whose care fell below expected standards.
The initial review was ordered after concerns were raised by her colleagues.
Sky News has seen a copy of the interim report which details several issues relating to complex hip surgeries performed by the surgeon.
One of the parents whose child was identified in the review showed us a recent letter from the hospital which reported “problems with both judgement and technique” in her child’s surgery.
Ms Stohr, who has been suspended since the end of January, said in a statement: “I always strive to provide the highest standards of care to all my patients.
“I am co-operating fully with the trust investigation and it would not be appropriate to comment further at this time.”
Tammy Harrison: ‘It was hell’
Left in agonising pain
Tammy Harrison, 12, has cerebral palsy and had surgeries carried out by Ms Stohr. Her operations didn’t work, leaving her in agonising pain.
She said: “My first one was just like trauma. I couldn’t get out of bed for eight weeks. I was either stuck in bed or stuck on the sofa. It was hell.”
Her mum, Lynn, told Sky News: “There is nothing that can put Tammy back to where she was now and that’s the sad thing.
“If I could just click my fingers and have the child back that I had I would do it with a blink of an eye.”
Ms Stohr operated on Lynn Harrison’s daughter
So far, there’s been no confirmation of any wrongdoing in Tammy’s care.
But her family have a meeting at the hospital this week to find out more.
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The trust has asked a panel of specialist clinicians to review all the planned operations carried out by Ms Stohr at Addenbrooke’s. One hundred emergency trauma cases will also be looked at.
Addenbrooke’s is a major regional trauma centre and treats serious emergency patients from all over the region.
One clinician at the hospital told Sky News that the review of so many patients was “creating a lot of extra work”, which was “slowing things down” for other patients awaiting treatment.
Addenbrooke’s Hospital. File pic: PA
At least one extra locum consultant has been helping the team, as they work through the caseload.
Trust apologises
Sky News has been told Cambridge University Hospitals Trust had wanted to identify Ms Stohr before but had been threatened with a legal injunction.
The trust has apologised unreservedly to families and patients. But what’s troubling many is the fact concerns were raised about Ms Stohr a decade ago.
Chief executive of Cambridge University Hospitals Trust, Roland Sinker, has set up another review to examine whether opportunities were missed, and action could have been taken sooner.
The Department of Health described the ongoing situation as “incredibly concerning.”
Sir Keir Starmer promised “bold changes” as he announced he will relax rules around electric vehicles after carmakers were hit by Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The prime minister said “global trade is being transformed” after the US president‘s 25% levy on imported cars, and 10% tariff on other products, came into force.
Jaguar Land Rover has said the firm will “pause” shipments to the US as it looks to “address the new trading terms”.
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Labour made a manifesto pledge to restore a 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars after it had been rolled back to 2035 by Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government.
Starmer promises to ‘back British business’. Pic: Reuters
Sir Keir will officially confirm the ban in an announcement on Monday but regulations around manufacturing targets on electric cars and vans will be altered, to help firms in the transition.
Luxury supercar firms such as Aston Martin and McLaren will still be allowed to keep producing petrol cars beyond the 2030 date, because they only manufacture a small number of vehicles per year.
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‘Nothing off the table’ over tariffs
Petrol and diesel vans will also be allowed to be sold until 2035, along with hybrids and plug-in hybrid cars.
The government is also going to make it easier for manufacturers who do not comply with the government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which sets sales targets, to avoid fines, and the levies will be reduced.
Sir Keir said: “I am determined to back British brilliance.
“Now more than ever UK businesses and working people need a government that steps up, not stands aside.
“That means action, not words.”
Officials have said support for the car industry will continue to be kept under review as the full impact of the tariffs announced last week becomes clear.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said the industry deserves “clarity” in the economic context.
She said: “Our ambitious package of strengthening reforms will protect and create jobs, making the UK a global automotive leader in the switch to EVs, all the while meeting our core manifesto commitment to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030.”
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Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said the government had “recognised the intense pressure manufacturers are under”, while Colin Walker, a transport analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said the ZEV mandate is a “global success story” in driving a surge in sales of electric vehicles.
It comes as KPMG warned US tariffs on UK exports could see GDP growth fall to 0.8% in 2025 and 2026.
The accountancy firm said higher tariffs on specific categories, such as cars, aluminium and steel, would more than offset the exemption on pharmaceutical exports, leaving the effective tariffs imposed on UK exports at around 12%.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “Given the economic impact that tariffs would cause, there is a strong incentive to seek a negotiated settlement that diminishes the need for tariffs. The UK automotive manufacturing sector is particularly exposed given the complex supply chains of some producers.”
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