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The Bank of England’s chief economist has warned there is a risk of “unnecessary damage” being inflicted if interest rates increase too much.

Huw Pill told a conference in South Africa he was wary about the impact on “employment and growth” resulting from potential future hikes in the battle to bring down inflation.

It comes after the Bank upped interest rates for a 14th time in a row to 5.25% earlier this month and said it expected them to remain at high levels for longer than previously expected.

Mr Pill, who is a member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which sets the rates, told an event in Cape Town that it was vital to ensure a “lasting return” to the Bank’s inflation target of 2%.

The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation fell to 6.8% in the year to July, down from a peak of 11.1% last October.

But the Bank remains concerned that core inflation, which does not track items susceptible to sharp rises and falls, such as food and energy, remains “stubbornly high” at 6.9%.

Mr Pill said: “The key element is that we on the MPC need to see the job through and ensure a lasting and sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target.”

But he added the Bank had to be careful with interest rate rises, saying: “Now that policy is in restrictive territory, there is the possibility of doing too much and inflicting unnecessary damage on employment and growth.”

However, he went on to stress tackling inflation is still the key job at hand for now.

“At present, the emphasis is still on ensuring that we are – in the words of the MPC’s last statement – sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to ensure that we have that lasting return to target,” Mr Pill said.

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The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will fall to around 4.9% in the last three months of the year.

It has come under pressure to continue raising interest rates to drag inflation down.

But concerns have also been raised about the impact of hikes on mortgage rates, which have been blamed for a slowdown in the housing market, and on other aspects of the economy.

The Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank recently warned there was a “very real risk” the UK could fall into a recession while rates remain high.

Mr Pill faced criticism earlier this year when he said the public needed to “accept” that they were poorer. He later expressed regret over his comments.

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Post Office Capture scandal: Sir Alan Bates calls for those responsible for wrongful convictions to be ‘brought to account’

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Post Office Capture scandal: Sir Alan Bates calls for those responsible for wrongful convictions to be 'brought to account'

Sir Alan Bates has called for those responsible for the wrongful convictions of sub postmasters in the Capture IT scandal to be “brought to account”.

It comes after Sky News unearthed a report showing Post Office lawyers knew of faults in the software nearly three decades ago.

The documents, found in a garage by a retired computer expert, describe the Capture system as “an accident waiting to happen”.

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Post Office: The lost ‘Capture’ files

Sir Alan said the Sky News investigation showed “yet another failure of government oversight; another failure of the Post Office board to ensure [the] Post Office recruited senior people competent of bringing in IT systems” and management that was “out of touch with what was going on within its organisation”.

The unearthed Capture report was commissioned by the defence team for sub postmistress Patricia Owen and served on the Post Office in 1998 at her trial.

It described the software as “quite capable of producing absurd gibberish” and concluded “reasonable doubt” existed as to “whether any criminal offence” had taken place.

Ms Owen was found guilty of stealing from her branch and given a suspended prison sentence.

She died in 2003 and her family had always believed the computer expert, who was due to give evidence on the report, “never turned up”.

Pat Owen and husband David
Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/vs with case study. Family of Pat Owen from Kent who was convicted of 1998 from stealing from her post office branch. Now the Capture IT system is suspected of adding errors to the accounts. 
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
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Patricia Owen (right) was convicted in 1998 of stealing from her post office branch. She died in 2003


Adrian Montagu reached out after seeing a Sky News report earlier this year and said he was actually stood down by the defending barrister with “no reason given”.

The barrister said he had no recollection of the case.

Victims and their lawyers hope the newly found “damning” expert report, which may never have been seen by a jury, could help overturn Capture convictions.

Read more: Post Office scandal redress must not only be fair – it must be fast

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What is the Capture scandal?

‘These people have to be brought to account’

Sir Alan, the leading campaigner for victims of the Horizon Post Office scandal, said while “no programme is bug free, why [was the] Post Office allowed to transfer the financial risk from these bugs on to a third party ie the sub postmaster, and why did its lawyers continue with prosecutions seemingly knowing of these system bugs?”

He continued: “Whether it was incompetence or corporate malice, these people have to be brought to account for their actions, be it for Capture or Horizon.”

More than 100 victims have come forward

More than 100 victims, including those who were not convicted but who were affected by the faulty software, have so far come forward.

Capture was used in 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999, just before Horizon was introduced – which saw hundreds wrongfully convicted.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), the body responsible for investigating potential miscarriages of justice, is currently looking at a number of Capture convictions.

A CCRC spokesperson told Sky News: “We have received applications regarding 29 convictions which pre-date Horizon.
25 of these applications are being actively investigated by case review managers, and two more recent applications are in the preparatory stage and will be assigned to case review managers before the end of June.

“We have issued notices under s.17 of the Criminal Appeal Act 1995 to Post Office Ltd requiring them to produce all material relating to the applications received.

“To date, POL have provided some material in relation to 17 of the cases and confirmed that they hold no material in relation to another 5. The CCRC is awaiting a response from POL in relation to 6 cases.”

A spokesperson for the Department for Business and Trade said: “Postmasters negatively affected by Capture endured immeasurable suffering. We continue to listen to those who have been sharing their stories on the Capture system, and have taken their thoughts on board when designing the Capture Redress Scheme.”

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Government considering measure to slash industrial energy prices

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Government considering measure to slash industrial energy prices

Ministers are considering a commitment to cut soaring industrial energy prices for British companies to the same level enjoyed by competitors in France and Germany as part of its industrial strategy.

Sky News understands proposals to make energy prices more competitive are at the heart of final discussions between the Department for Business and Trade and the Treasury ahead of the publication of its industrial strategy on Monday.

Industrial electricity prices in the UK are the highest in the G7 and 46% above the median for the 32 member states of the International Energy Agency, which account for 75% of global demand.

Industrial electricity prices by country
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Industrial electricity prices by country

In 2023, British businesses paid £258 per megawatt-hour for electricity compared to £178 in France and £177 in Germany, according to IEA data. Matching those prices will require a reduction of around 27% at a cost of several billion pounds.

Money blog: Interest rate held – but Bank of England gave ‘small surprise’

Earlier this month, automotive giant Nissan said UK energy prices make its Sunderland plant its most expensive in the world.

Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds is understood to be sympathetic to business concerns, and chancellor Rachel Reeves told the CBI’s annual dinner the issue of energy prices “is a question we know we need to answer”.

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Extending relief

While around 350 companies in energy-intensive industries, including steel, ceramics and cement, enjoy some relief from prices through the energy supercharger scheme, which refunds 60% of network charges and is expected to rise to 90%, there is currently no support for manufacturers.

Sky News understands ministers are considering introducing a similar scheme to support the 200,000 manufacturing businesses in the UK.

Cutting network costs entirely could save more than 20% from electricity prices.

Explainer: Why are UK industrial electricity prices so high?

The mechanism for delivering support is expected to require consultation before being introduced to ensure only businesses for whom energy is a central cost would benefit. This could be based on the proportion of outgoings spent on energy bills.

It is not clear how the scheme would be funded, but the existing industrial supercharger is paid for by a levy on energy suppliers that is ultimately passed on to customers.

A central demand

Bringing down prices, particularly for electricity, has been the central demand of business and industry groups, with Make UK warning high prices are rendering businesses uncompetitive and risk “deindustrialising” the UK.

The primary driver of high electricity costs in the UK is wholesale gas, which both underpins the grid and sets the price in the market, even in periods when renewables provide the majority of supply.

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Why are costs so high?

Wholesale prices account for around 39% of bills, with operating costs and network charges – the cost of using and maintaining the grid – making up another 25%, and VAT 20%.

Business groups, including the manufacturers group Make UK, have called for a reduction in those additional charges, as well as the so-called policy costs that make up the final 16% of bills.

UK industrial electricity prices
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UK industrial electricity prices

These are made up of levies and charges introduced by successive governments to encourage and underwrite the construction of renewable sources of power.

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Make UK estimate that shifting policy costs into general taxation would cost around £3.8bn, but pay for itself over time in increased growth.

Government sources confirmed that energy prices are a central issue that the industrial strategy will address, but said no final policy decisions have been agreed.

The industrial strategy, which is delayed from its scheduled publication earlier this month, will set out the government’s plans to support eight sectors identified as having high-growth potential, including advanced manufacturing, life sciences, defence and creative industries.

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Why are UK industrial electricity prices so high – and what can be done about it?

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Why are UK industrial electricity prices so high - and what can be done about it?

Britain has the highest industrial electricity prices in the G7, a cost businesses say makes it impossible to compete internationally and risks “deindustrialising” the UK.

Electricity prices are driven by wholesale fuel prices, particularly natural gas, but include taxes and “policy costs” that business groups, including Make UK and the CBI, want the government to cut.

Sky News understands the issue is a “live discussion” within government as ministers finalise the government’s industrial strategy, due to be published next week.

Money blog: Interest rate held – but Bank of England gave ‘small surprise’

So what are the options, and why are prices so high in the first place?

How much does UK business pay for electricity?

Industrial electricity prices in 2023 were 46% higher than the average of the 32 members of the International Energy Agency, a group that includes EU and G7 nations that, between them, account for 75% of global demand.

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UK businesses paid an average of £258 per megawatt-hour, according to IEA data – higher than Italy (£218), France (£178) and Germany (£177), and more than four times the £65 paid on average in the USA.

While wholesale prices have been driven up in the last five years by external factors including post-pandemic demand and the Ukraine war, this is not a blip – UK prices have been consistently above the IEA average for decades.

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Britain’s big energy price problem

Why are prices so high?

The main determinant is exposure to wholesale gas markets. Gas underpins the UK grid, reliably filling the gaps renewables and nuclear sources cannot fill. Crucially, gas also sets the price in the electricity market even when it is not the primary source of energy.

The UK market uses a “marginal pricing system”, in which the price is set by the last, and thus most expensive, unit of power required to meet demand at any one time.

That means that while renewable sources, initially offered at a cheaper price, may provide the majority of power in a given period, the price for all sources is set by gas-fired power stations providing the balance of supply.

Industrial electricity bills are lower in markets that are less exposed to gas. In France, gas sets the price less than 10% of the time because its fleet of nuclear power stations underpin supply.

Industrial electricity prices by country
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Industrial electricity prices by country

What makes up electricity bills?

The biggest single element of electricity prices is wholesale gas costs, which make up 39% of the bill, according to industrial supplier SEFE.

The next largest element is “network costs”, charges imposed for using, maintaining and expanding the grid, which account for 23%. Operating costs are 2%, with VAT adding a further 20%.

The remaining 16% of electricity bills is made up of “policy costs”, levies and payments introduced over the last two decades to subsidise the construction of renewable power capacity, primarily wind power.

UK industrial electricity prices
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Cost breakdown of UK industrial electricity prices

Increasing renewable supply and storage to reduce exposure has been the long-term solution favoured by successive governments. Sir Keir Starmer‘s administration has a target of shifting to a “clean power” grid by 2030 and achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, a target Kemi Badenoch describes as “impossible”.

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Some energy-intensive industries (EII), such as chemicals, steel, and cement, already receive support, with a 60% relief on network charges and a reduction of around 10% from the British Industry Supercharger fund, which the government is considering increasing.

What does business want?

Business groups are calling for these policy costs to be lifted and shifted into general taxation, calculating that a 15% reduction in prices would give them a chance of competing more equitably.

Make UK say cutting policy costs would cut 15% from bills, and is also proposing a “contract for difference” for manufacturers’ electricity, a model borrowed from the renewables market.

Under the plan, the government would guarantee a “strike price” for electricity 10% lower than the wholesale price. When prices are higher, the taxpayer would refund business, and when they are lower, industry would pay back the difference.

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Make UK estimate the cost to the exchequer of £3.8bn. They believe it will be cost-neutral courtesy of increased growth. The alternative, they say, is an uncompetitive manufacturing sector doomed to decline.

“We need to see the government remove those costs in the industrial strategy,” says Make UK chief executive Stephen Phipson.

“We believe it will be cost-neutral because of the benefit to the economy of retaining manufacturing in this country. If we don’t see it happen, we will risk deindustrialising the United Kingdom.”

A government spokesperson said: “Through our sprint to clean power, we will get off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel markets – protecting business and household finances with clean, homegrown energy that we control.”

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