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House prices fell by 5.3% in the year to August – a bigger-than-expected drop, according to Nationwide.

This means the typical home is now worth £14,600 less than 12 months ago – with an average property price of £259,153.

Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, says the softening is “not surprising” – with interest rate hikes by the Bank of England sending mortgage payments higher.

Activity in the housing market is currently running well below pre-pandemic levels – with mortgage approvals about 20% below the 2019 average in recent months.

But Mr Gardner struck an upbeat note after Nationwide’s latest House Price Index was released – and said “a relatively soft landing is still achievable.”

He added: “In particular, unemployment is expected to remain low (below 5%) and the vast majority of existing borrowers should be able to weather the impact of higher borrowing costs, given the high proportion on fixed rates, and where affordability testing should ensure that those needing to refinance can afford the higher payments.”

And while activity may remain subdued in the near term, Mr Gardner believes a mix of income growth and lower house prices could improve affordability if mortgage rates cool.

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Andrew Wishart, senior property economist at Capital Economics, believes this “marks the start of a significant further drop in house prices”.

He believes that, by mid-2024, house prices will be 10.5% below their August 2022 peak – with mortgage rates set to remain between 5.5% and 6% for the next 12 months.

Analysis: For many, house prices can’t fall far enough


Paul Kelso - Health correspondent

Paul Kelso

Business correspondent

@pkelso

The UK housing market has long lost touch with reality – but the recent modest fall in prices, confirmed by the Nationwide house price index figures for August, does follow the logic of economic trends.

After 14 consecutive Bank of England increases pushed the base rate to 5.25% and many mortgages beyond 6%, it would have been a surprise had the housing market not been affected.

While prices have been falling the volume of completions has stalled too, reflecting perhaps that many potential movers are waiting to see where rates will peak before they take the plunge.

For those looking to sell or buy from an existing home the impact will be largely theoretical, with the cost of remortgaging and the swingeing impact of stamp duty far more consequential in decision making.

A drop of more than 5% will be most welcome to first-time buyers, but the benefit will likely be wiped out by the increased cost of the mortgage required to get on the ladder in the first place.

For millions, prices cannot fall far enough to make that first step realistic, the hike in borrowing costs compounding an affordability crisis that has seen the average house price balloon to eight times the average wage in two decades.

According to Nationwide, there was a 25% drop in first-time buyers in the first half of 2023 when compared with 2019.

“A first-time buyer earning the average wage and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would now see their monthly mortgage payment absorb over 40% of their take-home pay (with a mortgage rate of 6%) – well above the long run average of 29%,” Mr Gardner added.

There has also been a shift in the types of properties being purchased – with a big decline in demand for detached houses as buyers look for smaller, less expensive places.

Additional housing bills are piling more misery on families at a time when the main measure of inflation is easing back from the highs of last winter, when unprecedented energy costs hit Western economies.

The evolving cost of living crisis has squeezed affordability and demand at estate agents – and the Bank wants a wider economic slowdown to help cool the pace of price rises.

Data released by the Bank earlier this week showed that mortgage approvals had dropped by almost 10% last month.

Separate figures from property website Zoopla suggested that the UK was on track for about one million house and flat sales by the end of this year – the lowest level since 2012.

Average rates for two and five-year fixed residential mortgages remain above 6%.

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Renters now in the majority in UK

Higher funding costs for lenders are down to expectations the Bank of England still has some way to go in its battle against inflation.

Financial markets currently expect the Bank’s rate to peak just shy of 6% early next year – from its current level of 5.25%.

Nationwide, like other mortgage lenders in the shifting rate environment, revealed on Thursday that it was reducing some fixed and tracker products by up to 0.15 percentage points from today.

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Budget 2025: Ex-Bank of England rate setter Andy Haldane criticises ‘repeated mistakes’

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Budget 2025: Ex-Bank of England rate setter Andy Haldane criticises 'repeated mistakes'

A former Bank of England chief economist has told Sky News that “repeated mistakes” by the government have been “sucking all life” from the economy ahead of the budget.

Andy Haldane said the country had to find a new way of treating the build-up to the annual fiscal event, as budget rumour and speculation – initiated in part by ministers and via leaks – had fed acts of self-harm for the past two years.

“It’s been a bad hand played, in truth, pretty poorly,” he said of the chancellor’s stewardship during his appearance on Mornings with Ridge and Frost.

“So mistakes have been made and repeated mistakes. And the worst of that, I would say, is it’s repeated mistakes.”

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The build up to this budget, and Rachel Reeves‘s first speech last October, have each been dominated by talk of crisis for the public finances.

Mr Haldane told Sophy Ridge: “The black hole narrative that you and I discussed a year ago, sucking all life or energy and light from the economy, has been a mistake repeated this time as well.

“So not enough has been done to give growth a chance to create that stability. It’s only 16 months since Keir Starmer said I want to tread more lightly on our lives. That has singularly not happened. That speculation is proof positive of that.”

Mr Haldane, who served on the Bank’s rate-setting committee for seven years, was speaking after official figures last week showed a bigger than expected climb in the UK’s unemployment rate to 5% – a level not seen since the COVID pandemic.

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Why is the economy flatlining?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also reported weaker than forecast economic growth during the third quarter of the year, slowing to 0.1%.

He argued there was a clear link between the data and the looming budget, which takes place next week.

“If you speak to businesses, speak to consumers, their fearfulness about where the axe will fall is causing them, not unreasonably, to save rather than spend, to not put their balance sheet to work and that has taken the legs from beneath growth in the economy,” he said.

Asked if that was the government’s fault or inevitable, he replied: “The process has become far too elongated and far too leaky, to be honest.

“You know, we have this pretty much daily speculation about the next tax rise… we need to re-engineer that process to either make it watertight, like the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions or a genuinely open consultation.

“Right now, we have this halfway house of leaks and speculation which serves absolutely no one. Least of all the economy.”

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Minister on income tax U-turn

Read more:
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Is Starmer ‘in office but not in power’?
Budget income tax U-turn. What happened?

He made his remarks after the events of last Friday that saw the chancellor apparently rule out a Labour manifesto-breaking hike to income tax.

That was despite Ms Reeves using a speech earlier this month to prepare the ground for such a move – to the horror of many Labour MPs.

Treasury sources insisted the U-turn could be explained by better than expected economic forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

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Inside the town where 6 out of 7 children grow up in poverty – and live in fear of homelessness

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Inside the town where 6 out of 7 children grow up in poverty - and live in fear of homelessness

The cobbled streets of Newport in Middlesbrough survive from the Victorian era.

The staggering levels of child poverty here also feel like they belong in a different time.

Six out of every seven children in Newport are classified as living in poverty.

Six out of every seven children in Newport are classified as living in poverty
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Six out of every seven children in Newport are classified as living in poverty

The measure is defined by the Child Poverty Action Group as a household with an income less than 60% of the national average.

More than half of children across the whole of the constituency of Middlesbrough and Thornaby East are growing up in poverty.

As a long-awaited new strategy on child poverty is expected from the government, much of the focus on tackling the problem has been placed on lifting the two-child cap on benefits for families.

Researchers say there is direct link between areas with the highest rates of child poverty and those with the highest proportion of children affected by that two-child cap.

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The two-child benefit cap means Gemma Grafton and Lee Stevenson receive no additional universal credit for three-month-old Ivie
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The two-child benefit cap means Gemma Grafton and Lee Stevenson receive no additional universal credit for three-month-old Ivie

Mother-of-three Gemma Grafton said: “Maybe if families do have more than two children, give them that little bit of extra help because it would make a difference.”

Three months ago, she and partner Lee welcomed baby Ivie into the world. With two daughters already, the cap means they receive no additional universal credit.

“You don’t seem to have enough money some months to cover the basics,” said Lee.

“Having to tell the kids to take it easy, that’s not nice, when they’re just wanting to help themselves to get what they want and we’ve got to say ‘Try and calm down on what you’re eating’ because we haven’t got the money to go and get shopping in,” added Gemma.

Katrina Morley, of Dormanstown Primary Academy, says lack of sleep affects concentration
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Katrina Morley, of Dormanstown Primary Academy, says lack of sleep affects concentration

Tracey Godfrey-Harrison says parents 'are crying that they're failing'
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Tracey Godfrey-Harrison says parents ‘are crying that they’re failing’

The couple had to resort to paying half of the rent one month, something they say is stressful and puts their home at risk.

Those who work in the area of child poverty say they are engaged in a battle with child exploitation gangs who will happily step in and offer children a lucrative life of crime.

“Parents are crying that they’re failing because they can’t provide for their children,” said Tracey Godfrey-Harrison, project manager at the Middlesbrough Food Bank.

“In today’s society, it’s disgraceful that anyone should have to cry because they don’t have enough.”

In the shadow of a former steelworks, Dormanstown Primary Academy serves pupils in a community hit hard by the economic collapse that followed.

The school works with charities and businesses to increase opportunities for pupils now and in the future.

Katrina Morley, the academy’s chief executive, said: “A child who hasn’t been able to sleep properly can’t concentrate. They’re tired. We know that the brain doesn’t work in the same way. A child who is hungry can’t access the whole of life.

“When you face hardship, it affects not just your physiology but your emotional sense, your brain development, your sense of worth. They don’t get today back and their tomorrow is our tomorrow.”

Dormanstown Primary Academy serves pupils in a community hit hard by the closure of a steel plant
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Dormanstown Primary Academy serves pupils in a community hit hard by the closure of a steel plant

Barney's Baby Bank founder Debbie Smith says local people 'are struggling with food'
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Barney’s Baby Bank founder Debbie Smith says local people ‘are struggling with food’


The school’s year six pupils see the value of things like the on-site farm shop for families in need.

They are open about their own worries, too.

Bonnie, 10, said: “I think that’s very important because it ensures all the people in our community have options if they’re struggling.

“It can be life-changing for families in poverty or who have a disadvantage in life because they don’t have enough money and they’re really struggling to get their necessities.”

Mark, also 10, said: “I worry about if we have nowhere to live and if we haven’t got enough money to pay for our home. But at least we have our family.”

They also see the homelessness in the area as the impact of poverty. “I think it actually happens more often than most people think,” said Leo, “because near the town, there’s people on the streets and they have nowhere to go.”

The school is one of many calling for the lifting of the two-child cap.

The need for life’s essentials has prompted more than 50 families to register for help at Barney’s Baby Bank in the last 11 months. Nappies, wipes, clothing, shoes, toys, are a lifeline for those who call in.

Founder Debbie Smith said local people “are struggling with food. They’re obviously struggling to clothe their babies as well. It’s low wages, high unemployment, job insecurity and that two-child benefit cap”.

“Middlesbrough does feel ignored,” she added.

A government spokesperson said: “Every child, no matter their background, deserves the best start in life. That’s why our Child Poverty Taskforce will publish an ambitious strategy to tackle the structural and root causes of child poverty.

“We are investing £500m in children’s development through the rollout of Best Start Family Hubs, extending free school meals and ensuring the poorest don’t go hungry in the holidays through a new £1bn crisis support package.”

Read more on Sky News:
Progress ‘being made’ on poverty
Warning over ‘great poverty distraction’

But what is the message to those making the decisions from the North East?

“Come and do my job for a week and see the need and the desperation the people are in,” said Ms Godfrey-Harrison. “There needs to be more done for people in Middlesbrough.”

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Interpath-owner to kick off £900m sale of Claire’s administrator

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Interpath-owner to kick off £900m sale of Claire's administrator

The restructuring firm drafted in to advise Sir Jim Ratcliffe on a radical cost-cutting programme at Manchester United Football Club will this week be put up for sale with a £900m price tag.

Sky News has learnt that advisers to HIG Europe, the majority shareholder in Interpath Advisory, will on Monday begin circulating information about the business to potential buyers.

City insiders said on Sunday that HIG had received a large volume of inbound enquiries from prospective suitors since it emerged that it was in the process of appointing bankers at Moelis to handle an auction.

Blackstone, Bridgepoint, Onex, PAI Partners and Permira are among the buyout firms expected to show an interest in buying Interpath, according to banking sources.

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Interpath was spun out of KPMG UK in 2021 in a deal triggered by the changing regulatory climate in the audit profession.

Growing concerns over conflicts of interest between accountancy giants’ audit and consulting arms had been exacerbated by the collapse of companies such as BHS and Carillion, prompting a number of disposals by ‘big four’ firms.

Interpath has advised on a string of prominent restructuring and cost-saving mandates for clients, including acting as administrator to the UK and Ireland subsidiaries of Claire’s, the accessories retailer which collapsed during the summer.

Sources said that Interpath had doubled its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation since HIG Europe acquired the business four-and-a-half years ago.

It is also said to be on track to record a 20% increase in annual revenues in the current financial year.

A sale of Interpath is expected to be agreed during the first quarter of 2026.

HIG declined to comment.

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