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Comparing the UK economy with its pre-pandemic size has become an almost totemic way of highlighting its sluggish performance post-COVID.

It has certainly been a gift for Opposition politicians and in particular when – in September last year – the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produced evidence that the UK was the only economy in the G7 group that remained smaller than it was in February 2020.

However, today brought news that the UK economy actually fared better in the post-COVID period than previously thought.

The ONS unveiled a series of revisions for past GDP growth – affecting both 2020 and 2021.

It said that the UK economy contracted by 10.4% in the main pandemic year of 2020 – less worse than the 11% contraction previously reported.

And it said UK GDP grew by 8.7% in 2021 – considerably better than the previously reported growth of 7.6%.

Put together, it means that at the end of 2021 – rather than being 1.2% smaller than it was going into the pandemic as previously reported – the UK economy was actually 0.6% bigger.

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Some will say that this is all just rear-view mirror stuff and does not really matter.

But it does.

Even in its most recent estimates for quarterly growth, the ONS was suggesting that, during the three months to the end of June, the UK economy remained 0.2% smaller than it was during the final three months of 2019, the last full quarter before the pandemic struck.

Carry these revisions across to the latest data though, and it means that, rather than being at the bottom of the G7, the UK’s economic recovery post-pandemic was well ahead of Germany and not far behind those achieved by France and Italy.

The Treasury was also quick to point out that, as of the end of 2021, the UK’s recovery trailed only those of the US and Canada in the G7.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “The fact that the UK recovered from the pandemic much faster than thought shows that once again those determined to talk down the British economy have been proved wrong.

“There are many battles still to win, most of all against inflation so we can ease cost of living pressures on families. But if we stick to the plan we can look forward to healthy growth which according to the IMF will be faster than Germany, France, and Italy in the long term.”

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Economy more ‘resilient’ than expected

The ONS explained the rather dramatic upward revision thus: “These revisions are mainly because we have richer data from our annual surveys and administrative data, we are now able to measure costs incurred by businesses [intermediate consumption] directly and we can adjust for prices [deflation] at a far more detailed level.”

Part of the revision can be explained by the fact that the ONS now has a more detailed understanding of how much people were being paid in the 2021-22 financial year following the availability of more up-to-date information from HM Revenue & Customs. More up-to-date information on household spending during 2021, for example on telecoms services, has also been incorporated into the assessment of GDP.

Put together, these led to some pretty dramatic upgrades in parts of the services sector, which makes up four-fifths of UK GDP. The ONS now thinks the services sector as a whole grew by 10.9% in 2021, way ahead of the previous estimate of 7%, which is a pretty extraordinary upward revision.

The biggest contributors to that, according to the ONS, was from the wholesale and retail trade, and repairs to cars and motorcycles in particular.

Another contributor was accommodation and food services, which is now reckoned to have grown by 31.3% in 2021, up from the previous estimate of 30.9%.

Clearly the rush among Britons to eat out and stay in hotels after lockdowns ended was even bigger than previously thought.

Other sectors where activity was stronger than previously assumed were professional scientific and technical activities and healthcare services.

The commercial property sector, previously thought to have contracted during the year in question, is also now reckoned to have enjoyed growth.

These revisions are really important in terms of how we view the UK’s economic performance.

As Simon French, the chief economist and head of research at the investment bank Panmure Gordon was quick to note, the entire UK economic narrative, post-pandemic, has just been revised away. All those headlines about the UK economy not being back at pre-COVID levels, or bottom of the G7, are now obsolete.

He added: “But as a macro guy who has had to talk to international investors [about] why gilts and UK equities do or do not deserve [to trade at] a discount, this has cast huge doubt on recent investor conclusions.

“I may be biased but this deserves to lead every UK economic and business story today – to provide symmetry to the coverage that the sluggish post-pandemic recovery that has shaped investor/business/household sentiment.”

That is a key point.

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Inflation: ‘We’re getting poorer’

There has been much hand-wringing in recent months about why international investors are shunning UK assets and why some UK companies have sought to switch their main stock market listing from London to New York.

Much of that negativity will have been informed by headlines about the UK’s lacklustre growth post-pandemic.

There is a word of caution, though. One is that the national statisticians of other countries are embarking on similar revisions to their GDP statistics using something called the “SUTS” – supply and use tables – framework. This approach is reckoned to provide a more accurate assessment of how a particular industry or sector has performed and, by extension, the economy as a whole. The statistics offices of the UK and the US are, at present, the only ones to have done this.

As the ONS pointed out today: “This means that the UK has one of the most up-to-date sets of estimates for this period of considerable economic change. Other countries follow different revision policies and practices, which can result in their estimates being revised at a later date.

“It is important this is considered when comparing the UK with other countries and our international comparison position is likely to change once other countries fully confront their datasets over time.”

And there is a broader point to make, too, which is that it is debatable whether GDP is that meaningful a measure, these days, of how the economy is doing and how all of us, as individuals, are living their lives.

As Savvas Savouri, economist at the hedge fund manager Toscafund and one of the Square Mile’s smartest economists, has told clients in the recent past: “GDP is a nonsensical measure of the modern UK economy… it fails to do justice to the ever-growing service-side of the UK economy.

“After all, measuring the production of textiles is very much easier to do than capturing the volume and value of coding for gaming, e-commerce and e-finance, architectural design, writing of legal contracts, insurance underwriting, academia to students from overseas and so forth.”

The ONS would doubtless argue, in response, that this is why it is seeking to finesse its methodology.

And, for now, it is helping paint a more encouraging picture of the UK economy.

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Virgin Media fined £24m for disconnecting vulnerable customers

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Virgin Media fined £24m for disconnecting vulnerable customers

Virgin Media has been fined £23.8m after it disconnected vulnerable customers during a phone line migration.

Regulator, Ofcom, ruled the telecoms company had placed thousands of people “at direct risk of harm”.

The watchdog said users of Telecare – an emergency alarm and monitoring service – were disconnected if they failed to engage with a process, in late 2023, which switched old analogue lines to a digital alternative.

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Ofcom said that Virgin Media had disclosed its own failures under consumer protection rules and its full cooperation was taken into account when determining the size of the penalty.

Ian Strawhorne, Ofcom’s director of enforcement, said: “It’s unacceptable that vulnerable customers were put at direct risk of harm and left without appropriate support by Virgin Media, during what should have been a safe and straightforward upgrade to their landline services.

“Today’s fine makes clear to companies that, if they fail to protect their vulnerable customers, they can expect to face similar enforcement action.”

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Ofcom found that Virgin Media failed properly to identify and record the status of telecare customers, resulting in significant gaps in the screening process.

“This meant that those affected did not receive the appropriate level of tailored support through the migration process”, it said.

It also criticised Virgin Media’s approach to disconnecting Telecare customers who did not engage in the migration process, “despite being aware of the risks posed”.

The watchdog said it had put thousands of vulnerable customers “at a direct risk of harm and prevented their devices from connecting to alarm monitoring centres while the disconnection was in place”.

The money from the fine goes to the Treasury.

A Virgin Media spokesperson said: “As traditional analogue landlines become less reliable and difficult to maintain, it’s essential we move our customers to digital services.

“While historically the majority of migrations were completed without issue, we recognise that we didn’t get everything right and have since addressed the migration issues identified by Ofcom.

“Our customers’ safety is always our top priority and, following an end-to-end review which began in 2023, we have already introduced a comprehensive package of improvements and enhanced support for vulnerable customers including improved communications, additional in-home support and extensive post-migration checks, as well as working with the industry and Government on a joint national awareness campaign.

“We’ve been working closely with Ofcom, telecare providers and local authorities to identify customers requiring additional support and are confident that the processes, policies and procedures we now have in place allow us to safely move customers to digital landlines.”

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Sir Keir Starmer to defend budget amid claims Rachel Reeves ‘lied’ about public finances

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Sir Keir Starmer to defend budget amid claims Rachel Reeves 'lied' about public finances

Sir Keir Starmer will deliver a speech today defending the decisions the government made in the budget, following criticisms of sweeping tax rises and accusations the chancellor lied to the country about the state of public finances.

The prime minister is expected to set out how the budget, which saw £26bn of tax rises imposed across the economy, “moves forward the government’s programme of national renewal”, and set “the right economic course” for Britain, Downing Street says.

He will also confirm that ministers will try again to reform the “broken” welfare system, after Labour MPs forced the government to U-turn on its plans to narrow the eligibility for Personal Independence Payments (PIP) earlier this year.

Sir Keir Starmer will give a speech later defending last week's budget. Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer will give a speech later defending last week’s budget. Pic: Reuters

‘Of course I didn’t’ lie about public finances, says Reeves

“We have to confront the reality that our welfare state is trapping people, not just in poverty, but out of work – young people especially. And that is a poverty of ambition,” Sir Keir will say.

“And so while we will invest in apprenticeships and make sure every young person without a job has a guaranteed offer of training or work, we must also reform the welfare state itself – that is what renewal demands.”

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Sky’s Ed Conway looks at the aftermath of the budget and explains who the winners and losers are

The prime minister will add: “This is not about propping up a broken status quo. Nor is it because we want to look somehow politically ‘tough’. The Tories played that game and the welfare bill went up by £88bn. They left children too poor to eat and young people too ill to work. A total failure.”

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Instead, he will argue it is about “potential”, saying: “If you are ignored that early in your career, if you’re not given the support you need to overcome your mental health issues, or if you are simply written off because you’re neurodivergent or disabled, then it can trap you in a cycle of worklessness and dependency for decades, which costs the country money, is bad for our productivity, but most importantly of all – costs the country opportunity and potential.

“And any Labour Party worthy of the name cannot ignore that. That is why we have asked Alan Milburn on the whole issue of young people, inactivity and work. We need to remove the incentives which hold back the potential of our young people.”

The announcement will come after the Conservative opposition described the budget as one for “benefits street”, following the chancellor’s decision to lift the two-child benefit cap from April, at a cost of £3bn.

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Prime Minister defends the budget

‘Government must go further and faster on growth’

The prime minister is also expected to launch a staunch defence of the budget overall, saying it will bear down on the cost of living through measures like money off energy bills and frozen rail fares; increase economic stability; and protect investment in public services and infrastructure that will drive economic growth.

He will argue that “economic growth is beating the forecasts”, but that the government must go “further and faster” to encourage it.

He will also reiterate his vow to scrap regulation across the economy, which he will argue is not only pro-business, but also a way to deal with the cost of living.

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How will your personal finances change following the budget announced by the chancellor?

“Rooting out excessive costs in every corner of the economy is an essential step to lower the cost of living for good, as well as promoting more dynamic markets for business,” the prime minister will say.

He will confirm reforms to the building of nuclear power plants, after the government’s nuclear regulatory taskforce found that “pointless gold-plating, unnecessary red-tape and well-intentioned, but fundamentally misguided environmental regulation had made Britain the most expensive place to build nuclear power”.

“We urgently need to correct this,” the prime minister will say.

Business secretary Peter Kyle will be tasked with applying the same deregulatory approach to major infrastructure schemes and to accelerate the implementation of Labour’s industrial strategy.

In response, Tory shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “It is frankly laughable to hear the prime minister say Rachel Reeves’s Benefits Street budget has put the country on the right course and that he wants to fix the welfare system.

“His chancellor has just hiked taxes by £26bn to pay for a welfare splurge, penalising people who work hard and making them pay for those who don’t work at all. And she misrepresented why she was doing it, claiming there was a fiscal black hole to fill that she knew didn’t exist.

“Labour’s leadership have repeatedly shown they lack the backbone to tackle welfare and instead are just acting to placate their left-wing backbenchers.”

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Rachel Reeves tells Sky News she did not lie about the state of the public finances

Chancellor accused of ‘lying’

Sir Mel is referring to the chancellor’s speech on 4 November in which she laid the ground for tax rises due to the decision by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to review and downgrade productivity over recent years, at a cost of £16bn, which led to a black hole in the public finances.

But the OBR revealed on Friday that it had told the Treasury days earlier that there was actually a budget surplus of £4.2bn, leading to outrage and claims that she misled the country about the state of the public finances.

Rachel Reeves was asked directly by Sky’s Trevor Phillips if she lied, and she replied: “Of course I didn’t.”

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Why did Reeves make the situation sound ‘so bleak’?

She said: “I said in that speech that I wanted to achieve three things in the budget – tackling the cost of living, which is why I took £150 off of energy bills and froze prescription charges and rail fares.

“I wanted to continue to cut NHS waiting lists, which is why I protected NHS spending. And I wanted to bring the debt and the borrowing down, which is one of the reasons why I increased the headroom.

“£4bn of headroom would not have been enough, and it would not give the Bank of England space to continue to cut interest rates.”

Ms Reeves also said: “In the context of a downgrade in our productivity, which cost £16bn, I needed to increase taxes, and I was honest and frank about that in the speech that I gave at the beginning of November.”

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Badenoch says Rachel Reeves should resign

But Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said: “I think the chancellor has been doing a terrible job. She’s made a mess of the economy, and […] she has told lies. This is a woman who, in my view, should be resigning.”

Report due on OBR breach

The tumultuous run-up to the 26 November budget culminated in the OBR accidentally publishing its assessment of the chancellor’s measures 45 minutes before the speech began, in what was an unprecedented breach of budget security.

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The chair of the OBR, Richard Hughes, apologised for the “error”, and announced an investigation into how it happened.

The chancellor has said that she retains confidence in him, despite the “serious breach of protocol”, and confirmed to Trevor that the investigation report will be delivered to her on Monday, although it is not clear when it will be published.

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Modella continues high street shopping spree with Wynsors deal

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Modella continues high street shopping spree with Wynsors deal

The investment firm which has become this year’s most prolific buyer of high street chains in Britain is targeting a takeover of a privately owned footwear retailer.

Sky News has learnt that Modella Capital is in advanced talks to buy Wynsors World of Shoes, which trades from approximately 50 standalone shops across the north of the country.

Retail industry sources said that Modella was now the likeliest buyer of Wynsors, with a deal potentially being struck before the end of the year.

Wynsors has been exploring a sale for the last two months, and hired the accountancy firm RSM to explore interest from prospective bidders.

The chain also trades from about 40 concession sites, and employs roughly 440 people.

It has a particular focus on the children’s school shoes segment of the footwear market.

Like many retailers, it is understood to have seen its recent performance adversely affected by the labour cost pressures heralded by last year’s Budget.

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If the deal is completed, it would add Wynsors to a stable of brands which includes TG Jones, the new name for WH Smith’s high street chain; Hobbycraft; and The Original Factory Shop.

Modella was also one of the bidders for Poundland, which was sold during the summer to Gordon Brothers, another specialist retail investor.

A spokesman for Modella declined to comment, while RSM has been contacted for comment, and Wynsors could not be reached for comment.

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