The UK actually fared much better after COVID than first thought – here’s why it matters
Comparing the UK economy with its pre-pandemic size has become an almost totemic way of highlighting its sluggish performance post-COVID.
It has certainly been a gift for Opposition politicians and in particular when – in September last year – the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produced evidence that the UK was the only economy in the G7 group that remained smaller than it was in February 2020.
However, today brought news that the UK economy actually fared better in the post-COVID period than previously thought.
The ONS unveiled a series of revisions for past GDP growth – affecting both 2020 and 2021.
It said that the UK economy contracted by 10.4% in the main pandemic year of 2020 – less worse than the 11% contraction previously reported.
And it said UK GDP grew by 8.7% in 2021 – considerably better than the previously reported growth of 7.6%.
Put together, it means that at the end of 2021 – rather than being 1.2% smaller than it was going into the pandemic as previously reported – the UK economy was actually 0.6% bigger.
Some will say that this is all just rear-view mirror stuff and does not really matter.
But it does.
Even in its most recent estimates for quarterly growth, the ONS was suggesting that, during the three months to the end of June, the UK economy remained 0.2% smaller than it was during the final three months of 2019, the last full quarter before the pandemic struck.
Carry these revisions across to the latest data though, and it means that, rather than being at the bottom of the G7, the UK’s economic recovery post-pandemic was well ahead of Germany and not far behind those achieved by France and Italy.
The Treasury was also quick to point out that, as of the end of 2021, the UK’s recovery trailed only those of the US and Canada in the G7.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “The fact that the UK recovered from the pandemic much faster than thought shows that once again those determined to talk down the British economy have been proved wrong.
“There are many battles still to win, most of all against inflation so we can ease cost of living pressures on families. But if we stick to the plan we can look forward to healthy growth which according to the IMF will be faster than Germany, France, and Italy in the long term.”
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Economy more ‘resilient’ than expected
The ONS explained the rather dramatic upward revision thus: “These revisions are mainly because we have richer data from our annual surveys and administrative data, we are now able to measure costs incurred by businesses [intermediate consumption] directly and we can adjust for prices [deflation] at a far more detailed level.”
Part of the revision can be explained by the fact that the ONS now has a more detailed understanding of how much people were being paid in the 2021-22 financial year following the availability of more up-to-date information from HM Revenue & Customs. More up-to-date information on household spending during 2021, for example on telecoms services, has also been incorporated into the assessment of GDP.
Put together, these led to some pretty dramatic upgrades in parts of the services sector, which makes up four-fifths of UK GDP. The ONS now thinks the services sector as a whole grew by 10.9% in 2021, way ahead of the previous estimate of 7%, which is a pretty extraordinary upward revision.
The biggest contributors to that, according to the ONS, was from the wholesale and retail trade, and repairs to cars and motorcycles in particular.
Another contributor was accommodation and food services, which is now reckoned to have grown by 31.3% in 2021, up from the previous estimate of 30.9%.
Clearly the rush among Britons to eat out and stay in hotels after lockdowns ended was even bigger than previously thought.
Other sectors where activity was stronger than previously assumed were professional scientific and technical activities and healthcare services.
The commercial property sector, previously thought to have contracted during the year in question, is also now reckoned to have enjoyed growth.
These revisions are really important in terms of how we view the UK’s economic performance.
As Simon French, the chief economist and head of research at the investment bank Panmure Gordon was quick to note, the entire UK economic narrative, post-pandemic, has just been revised away. All those headlines about the UK economy not being back at pre-COVID levels, or bottom of the G7, are now obsolete.
He added: “But as a macro guy who has had to talk to international investors [about] why gilts and UK equities do or do not deserve [to trade at] a discount, this has cast huge doubt on recent investor conclusions.
“I may be biased but this deserves to lead every UK economic and business story today – to provide symmetry to the coverage that the sluggish post-pandemic recovery that has shaped investor/business/household sentiment.”
That is a key point.
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There has been much hand-wringing in recent months about why international investors are shunning UK assets and why some UK companies have sought to switch their main stock market listing from London to New York.
Much of that negativity will have been informed by headlines about the UK’s lacklustre growth post-pandemic.
There is a word of caution, though. One is that the national statisticians of other countries are embarking on similar revisions to their GDP statistics using something called the “SUTS” – supply and use tables – framework. This approach is reckoned to provide a more accurate assessment of how a particular industry or sector has performed and, by extension, the economy as a whole. The statistics offices of the UK and the US are, at present, the only ones to have done this.
As the ONS pointed out today: “This means that the UK has one of the most up-to-date sets of estimates for this period of considerable economic change. Other countries follow different revision policies and practices, which can result in their estimates being revised at a later date.
“It is important this is considered when comparing the UK with other countries and our international comparison position is likely to change once other countries fully confront their datasets over time.”
And there is a broader point to make, too, which is that it is debatable whether GDP is that meaningful a measure, these days, of how the economy is doing and how all of us, as individuals, are living their lives.
As Savvas Savouri, economist at the hedge fund manager Toscafund and one of the Square Mile’s smartest economists, has told clients in the recent past: “GDP is a nonsensical measure of the modern UK economy… it fails to do justice to the ever-growing service-side of the UK economy.
“After all, measuring the production of textiles is very much easier to do than capturing the volume and value of coding for gaming, e-commerce and e-finance, architectural design, writing of legal contracts, insurance underwriting, academia to students from overseas and so forth.”
The ONS would doubtless argue, in response, that this is why it is seeking to finesse its methodology.
And, for now, it is helping paint a more encouraging picture of the UK economy.
A household energy supplier has failed, weeks after it attracted attention from regulators.
Rebel Energy, which has around 80,000 domestic customers and 10,000 others, had been the subject of a provisional order last month related to compliance with rules around renewable energy obligations.
The company’s website said it was “ceasing to trade” but gave no reason.
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Industry watchdog Ofgem said on Tuesday that those affected by Rebel’s demise did not need to take any action and would be “protected”.
Customers, Ofgem said, would soon be appointed a new provider under its supplier of last resort (SoLR) mechanism.
This was deployed widely in 2021 when dozens of energy suppliers collapsed while failing to get to grips with a spike in wholesale energy costs.
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The last supplier to go under was in July 2022.
Ofgem said new rules governing supplier business practices since then had bolstered resilience.
These include minimum capital requirements and the ringfencing of customer credit balances.
The exit from the market by Bedford-based Rebel was announced on the same day that the energy price cap rose again to take account of soaring wholesale costs between December and January.
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Tim Jarvis, director general for markets at Ofgem, said: “Rebel Energy customers do not need to worry, and I want to reassure them that they will not see any disruption to their energy supply, and any credit they may have on their accounts remains protected under Ofgem’s rules.
“We are working quickly to appoint new suppliers for all impacted customers. We’d advise customers not to try to switch supplier in the meantime, and a new supplier will be in touch in the coming weeks with further information.
“We have worked hard to improve the financial resilience of suppliers in recent years, implementing a series of rules to make sure they can weather unexpected shocks. But like any competitive market, some companies will still fail from time to time, and our priority is making sure consumers are protected if that happens.”
Harrods is urging lawyers acting for the largest group of survivors of abuse perpetrated by its former owner to reconsider plans to swallow a significant chunk of claimants’ compensation payouts in fees.
Sky News has learnt that KP Law, which is acting for hundreds of potential clients under the banner Justice for Harrods, is proposing to take up to 25% of compensation awards in exchange for handling their cases.
In many cases, that is likely to mean survivors foregoing sums worth of tens of thousands of pounds to KP Law, which says it is working for hundreds of people who suffered abuse committed by Mohamed al Fayed.
Mohamed al Fayed. File pic: PA
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Under a redress scheme outlined by the London-based department store on Monday, which confirmed earlier reports by Sky News, claimants will be eligible for general damages awards of up to £200,000, depending upon whether they agree to a psychiatric assessment arranged by Harrods.
In addition, other payments could take the maximum award to an individual under the scheme to £385,000.
A document published online names several law firms which have agreed to represent Mr al Fayed’s victims without absorbing any of their compensation payments.
KP Law is not among those firms.
Theoretically, if Justice for Harrods members are awarded compensation in excess of the sums proposed by the company, KP Law could stand to earn many millions of pounds from its share of the payouts.
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‘Many more’ likely abused by Fayed
A Harrods spokesperson told Sky News on Tuesday: “The purpose of the Harrods Redress Scheme is to offer financial and psychological support to those who choose to enter the scheme, rather than as a route to criminal justice.
“With a survivor-first approach, it has been designed by personal injury experts with the input of several legal firms currently representing survivors.
“Although Harrods tabled the scheme, control of the claim is in the hands of the survivors who can determine at any point to continue, challenge, opt out or seek alternative routes such as mediation or litigation.
“Our hope is that everyone receives 100% of the compensation awarded to them but we understand there is one exception among these law firms currently representing survivors who is proposing to take up to 25% of survivors’ compensation.
“We hope they will reconsider given we have already committed to paying reasonable legal costs.”
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Further claims against al Fayed
Responding to the publication of the scheme on Monday, KP Law criticised it as inadequate, saying it “does not go far enough to deliver the justice and accountability demanded by our clients”.
“This is not solely a question of compensation but about justice and exposing the systematic abuse and the many people who helped to operate it for the benefit of Mohamed al Fayed and others.”
Seeking to rebut the questions raised by Harrods about its fee structure, KP Law told Sky News: “KP Law is committed to supporting our clients through the litigation process to obtain justice first and foremost as well as recovering the maximum possible damages for them.
“This will cover all potential outcomes for the case.
“Despite the Harrods scheme seeking to narrow the potential issues, we believe that there are numerous potential defendants in a number of jurisdictions that are liable for what our clients went through, and we are committed to securing justice for our client group.
“KP Law is confident that it will recover more for its clients than what could be achieved through the redress scheme established by Harrods, which in our view is inadequate and does not go far enough to compensate victims of Mr al Fayed.”
The verbal battle between Harrods and KP Law underlines the fact that the battle for compensation and wider justice for survivors of Mr al Fayed remains far from complete.
The billionaire, who died in 2023, is thought to have sexually abused hundreds of women during a 25-year reign of terror at Harrods.
He also owned Fulham Football Club and Paris’s Ritz Hotel.
Harrods is now owned by a Qatari sovereign wealth fund controlled by the Gulf state’s ruling family.
The redress scheme commissioned by the department store is being coordinated by MPL Legal, an Essex-based law firm.
Last October, lawyers acting for victims of Mr al Fayed said they had received more than 420 enquiries about potential claims, although it is unclear how many more have come forward in the six months since.
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