The UK actually fared much better after COVID than first thought – here’s why it matters

Published

2 years ago

September 1, 2023

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Comparing the UK economy with its pre-pandemic size has become an almost totemic way of highlighting its sluggish performance post-COVID.

It has certainly been a gift for Opposition politicians and in particular when – in September last year – the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produced evidence that the UK was the only economy in the G7 group that remained smaller than it was in February 2020.

However, today brought news that the UK economy actually fared better in the post-COVID period than previously thought.

The ONS unveiled a series of revisions for past GDP growth – affecting both 2020 and 2021.

It said that the UK economy contracted by 10.4% in the main pandemic year of 2020 – less worse than the 11% contraction previously reported.

And it said UK GDP grew by 8.7% in 2021 – considerably better than the previously reported growth of 7.6%.

Put together, it means that at the end of 2021 – rather than being 1.2% smaller than it was going into the pandemic as previously reported – the UK economy was actually 0.6% bigger.

Some will say that this is all just rear-view mirror stuff and does not really matter.

But it does.

Even in its most recent estimates for quarterly growth, the ONS was suggesting that, during the three months to the end of June, the UK economy remained 0.2% smaller than it was during the final three months of 2019, the last full quarter before the pandemic struck.

Carry these revisions across to the latest data though, and it means that, rather than being at the bottom of the G7, the UK’s economic recovery post-pandemic was well ahead of Germany and not far behind those achieved by France and Italy.

The Treasury was also quick to point out that, as of the end of 2021, the UK’s recovery trailed only those of the US and Canada in the G7.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “The fact that the UK recovered from the pandemic much faster than thought shows that once again those determined to talk down the British economy have been proved wrong.

“There are many battles still to win, most of all against inflation so we can ease cost of living pressures on families. But if we stick to the plan we can look forward to healthy growth which according to the IMF will be faster than Germany, France, and Italy in the long term.”

The ONS explained the rather dramatic upward revision thus: “These revisions are mainly because we have richer data from our annual surveys and administrative data, we are now able to measure costs incurred by businesses [intermediate consumption] directly and we can adjust for prices [deflation] at a far more detailed level.”

Part of the revision can be explained by the fact that the ONS now has a more detailed understanding of how much people were being paid in the 2021-22 financial year following the availability of more up-to-date information from HM Revenue & Customs. More up-to-date information on household spending during 2021, for example on telecoms services, has also been incorporated into the assessment of GDP.

Put together, these led to some pretty dramatic upgrades in parts of the services sector, which makes up four-fifths of UK GDP. The ONS now thinks the services sector as a whole grew by 10.9% in 2021, way ahead of the previous estimate of 7%, which is a pretty extraordinary upward revision.

The biggest contributors to that, according to the ONS, was from the wholesale and retail trade, and repairs to cars and motorcycles in particular.

Another contributor was accommodation and food services, which is now reckoned to have grown by 31.3% in 2021, up from the previous estimate of 30.9%.

Clearly the rush among Britons to eat out and stay in hotels after lockdowns ended was even bigger than previously thought.

Other sectors where activity was stronger than previously assumed were professional scientific and technical activities and healthcare services.

The commercial property sector, previously thought to have contracted during the year in question, is also now reckoned to have enjoyed growth.

These revisions are really important in terms of how we view the UK’s economic performance.

As Simon French, the chief economist and head of research at the investment bank Panmure Gordon was quick to note, the entire UK economic narrative, post-pandemic, has just been revised away. All those headlines about the UK economy not being back at pre-COVID levels, or bottom of the G7, are now obsolete.

He added: “But as a macro guy who has had to talk to international investors [about] why gilts and UK equities do or do not deserve [to trade at] a discount, this has cast huge doubt on recent investor conclusions.

“I may be biased but this deserves to lead every UK economic and business story today – to provide symmetry to the coverage that the sluggish post-pandemic recovery that has shaped investor/business/household sentiment.”

That is a key point.

There has been much hand-wringing in recent months about why international investors are shunning UK assets and why some UK companies have sought to switch their main stock market listing from London to New York.

Much of that negativity will have been informed by headlines about the UK’s lacklustre growth post-pandemic.

There is a word of caution, though. One is that the national statisticians of other countries are embarking on similar revisions to their GDP statistics using something called the “SUTS” – supply and use tables – framework. This approach is reckoned to provide a more accurate assessment of how a particular industry or sector has performed and, by extension, the economy as a whole. The statistics offices of the UK and the US are, at present, the only ones to have done this.

As the ONS pointed out today: “This means that the UK has one of the most up-to-date sets of estimates for this period of considerable economic change. Other countries follow different revision policies and practices, which can result in their estimates being revised at a later date.

“It is important this is considered when comparing the UK with other countries and our international comparison position is likely to change once other countries fully confront their datasets over time.”

And there is a broader point to make, too, which is that it is debatable whether GDP is that meaningful a measure, these days, of how the economy is doing and how all of us, as individuals, are living their lives.

As Savvas Savouri, economist at the hedge fund manager Toscafund and one of the Square Mile’s smartest economists, has told clients in the recent past: “GDP is a nonsensical measure of the modern UK economy… it fails to do justice to the ever-growing service-side of the UK economy.

“After all, measuring the production of textiles is very much easier to do than capturing the volume and value of coding for gaming, e-commerce and e-finance, architectural design, writing of legal contracts, insurance underwriting, academia to students from overseas and so forth.”

The ONS would doubtless argue, in response, that this is why it is seeking to finesse its methodology.

And, for now, it is helping paint a more encouraging picture of the UK economy.

Business

AstraZeneca exit is a frightening prospect for the City and the government

Published

12 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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AstraZeneca exit is a frightening prospect for the City and the government

It’s a threat that will send a shiver down the spine of Downing Street and shake the City of London to its core.

Even the notion that AstraZeneca (AZ) – the UK’s most valuable listed company – is thinking of upping sticks and switching its stock market listing to America is a frightening prospect on many levels.

After all, if your biggest firm departs for Wall Street, what message does it send to an already bruised London stock market that has struggled to find its way since the UK’s vote to leave the European Union?

Money latest: Cash in your pocket set to change

The timing of the report in The Times that Pascal Soriot, the pharmaceutical company’s long-standing chief executive, is considering his own Brexit for the company, will not be lost on anyone.

The Treasury is under severe strain and the Starmer government, apparently focused on compromise given its welfare reform U-turns, bruised.

Ministers have been scrambling to get the support of business back, after a budget tax raid that has added to the cost of employing people in the UK, by launching a series of strategies to demonstrate a growth-led focus.

Mr Soriot’s reported shift is the culmination of years of frustration over UK tax rates and support for business – though it could also remove a focus on his own remuneration as the highest-paid director of a UK-listed firm.

AZ has its own gripes with Labour.

In January, the company cancelled a planned £450m investment in a vaccine factory on Merseyside, accusing the government of reneging on the previous Conservative administration’s offer of financial aid.

At the same time, it has been rebuilding its presence in the United States.

That speaks to not only a home market snub but also the election of a US president intent on protecting, as he sees it, America-based companies and jobs.

Donald Trump is threatening 25% tariffs on all pharma imports.

AZ has already promised a $3.5bn (£2.6bn) investment in US manufacturing by the end of 2026.

It has also rejoined the leading US drug lobby group, bolstering its voice in Washington DC.

There are sound reasons for bolstering its US footprint; more than 40% of AZ’s revenues are made in the world’s largest economy. Greater US production would also shield it from any duties imposed by Mr Trump and any MAGA successor.

Since Brexit, complaints among UK stock market constituents have been of low valuations compared to peers (with a weak pound also leaving them vulnerable to takeovers), weaker access to capital and poor appetite for new listings.

Wise, the money transfer firm, became the latest UK name to say that it intends to move its primary listing to the US just last month.

If followed through, it would tread in the footsteps of Flutter Entertainment and the building equipment suppler CRH – just two big names to have already left.

London was snubbed for a listing by its former chip-designing resident ARM back in 2023.

An initial public offering by Shein, the controversial fast fashion firm, had offered the prospect of the biggest flotation for the UK in many years but that was blocked by the Chinese authorities.

Efforts to bolster the City’s appeal, such as through the Financial Conduct Authority’s overhaul of listing rules and the creation of pension megafunds to aid access to capital, have also been boosted in recent months by investors in US companies taking a second look at comparatively low valuations in Europe.

Market analysts have charted a cash spread away from the US as a hedge against an erratic White House.

The Times report suggested that Mr Soriot’s plans were likely to face some opposition from members of the board, in addition to the UK government.

AstraZeneca has not commented on the story. Crucially, it did not deny it.

But a government spokesperson said: “Through our forthcoming Life Sciences Sector Plan, we are launching a 10-year mission to harness the life sciences sector to drive long-term economic growth and build a stronger, prevention-focused NHS.

“We have already started delivering on key actions, from investing up to £600m in the Health Data Research Service alongside Wellcome, through to committing over £650m in Genomics England and up to £354m in Our Future Health.

“This is clear evidence of our commitment and confidence in life sciences as a driver of both economic growth and better health outcomes.”

Governments don’t comment on stories such as these, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the departure of your biggest firm by market value is not the message a government laser-focused on growth can afford to allow.

Business

‘Catastrophic failure’ led to Heathrow power outage – with chances missed to prevent it

Published

15 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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'Catastrophic failure' led to Heathrow power outage - with chances missed to prevent it

A power outage that shut Heathrow Airport earlier this year, causing travel chaos for more than 270,000 passengers, was caused by a “catastrophic failure” of equipment in a nearby substation, according to a new report.

Experts say the fire at the North Hyde Substation, which supplies electricity to Heathrow, started following the failure of a high-voltage electrical insulator known as a bushing, before spreading.

The failure was “most likely” caused by moisture entering the equipment, according to the report.

National Grid, which owns the substation, missed two opportunities to prevent the failure, experts found, the first in 2018 when a higher-than-expected level of moisture was found in oil samples.

Such a reading meant “an imminent fault and that the bushing should be replaced”, according to guidance by the National Grid Electricity Transmission.

However, the report by National Energy System Operator (NESO) said the appropriate responses to such a serious issue were “not actioned”, including in 2022 when basic maintenance was postponed.

“The issue therefore went unaddressed,” the report added.

The design and configuration of the airport’s internal power network meant the loss of just one of its three supply points would “result in the loss of power to operationally critical systems, leading to a suspension of operations for a significant period”, the report added.

Heathrow – which is Europe’s biggest airport – closed for around 16 hours on 21 March following the fire, before reopening at about 6pm.

Around 1,300 flights were cancelled and more than 270,000 air passenger journeys were disrupted.

Tens of millions of pounds were lost, thousands of passengers were stranded, and questions were raised about the resilience of the UK’s infrastructure.

More than 71,000 domestic and commercial customers lost power as a result of the fire and the resulting power outage, the report said.

NESO chief executive, Fintan Slye, said there “wasn’t the control within their [National Grid’s] asset management systems that identified that this [elevated moisture levels] got missed.

“They identified a fault, [but] for some reason the transformer didn’t immediately get pulled out of service and get repaired.

“There was no control within the system that looked back and said ‘oh, hang on a second, you forgot to do this thing over here’.”

Sky’s science and technology editor, Tom Clarke, pointed to the age of the substation’s equipment, saying “some of these things are getting really very old now, coming to the end of their natural lives, and this is an illustration of what can happen if they are not really well maintained”.

The report also highlights a lack of joined-up thinking, he said, as “grid operators don’t know who’s critical national infrastructure on the network, and they don’t have priority”.

Responding to the report’s findings, a Heathrow spokesperson said: “A combination of outdated regulation, inadequate safety mechanisms, and National Grid’s failure to maintain its infrastructure led to this catastrophic power outage.

“We expect National Grid to be carefully considering what steps they can take to ensure this isn’t repeated.

“Our own Review, led by former Cabinet Minister Ruth Kelly, identified key areas for improvement and work is already underway to implement all 28 recommendations.”

In May, Ms Kelly’s investigation revealed that the airport’s chief executive couldn’t be contacted as the crisis unfolded because his phone was on silent.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who commissioned the NESO report, called it “deeply concerning”, because “known risks were not addressed by the National Grid Electricity Transmission”.

Mr Miliband said energy regulator Ofgem, which opened an investigation on Wednesday after the report was published, is investigating “possible licence breaches relating to the development and maintenance of its electricity system at North Hyde.

“There are wider lessons to be learned from this incident. My department, working across government, will urgently consider the findings and recommendations set out by NESO and publish a response to the report in due course.”

National Grid said in a statement it has “a comprehensive asset inspection and maintenance programme in place” and said it has “taken further action since the fire”.

This includes “an end-to-end review” of its oil sampling process and results, further enhancement of fire risk assessments at all operational sites, and “re-testing the resilience of substations that serve strategic infrastructure”.

A spokesperson said: “We fully support the recommendations in the report and are committed to working with NESO and others to implement them. We will also cooperate closely with Ofgem’s investigation.

“There are important lessons to be learnt about cross sector resilience and the need for increased coordination, and we look forward to working with government, regulators and industry partners to take these recommendations forward.”

The Metropolitan Police previously confirmed on 25 March that officers had “found no evidence to suggest that the incident was suspicious in nature”.

Business

UK content creators demand formal recognition from the government

Published

21 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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UK content creators demand formal recognition from the government

The UK’s YouTubers, TikTok creators and Instagram influencers have been surveyed on mass for the first time ever, and are demanding formal recognition from the government.

The creator economy in the UK is thought to employ around 45,000 people and contribute over £2bn to the country in one year alone, according to the new research by YouTube and Public First.

But, despite all that value, its workers say they feel underappreciated by the authorities.

“If you look at the viewership, our channel is not too different from a big media company,” said Max Klymenko, a content creator with more than 10 million subscribers and half a billion monthly views on average.

“If you look at the relevancy, especially among young audiences, I will say that we are more relevant. That said, we don’t really get the same treatment,” he told Sky News.

Fifty-six per cent of the more than 10,000 creators surveyed said they do not think UK creators have a “voice in shaping government policies” that affect them.

Only 7% think they get enough support to access finance, while just 17% think there is enough training and skills development here in the UK.

Nearly half think their value is not recognised by the broader creative industry.

The creative industries minister, Sir Chris Bryant, said the government “firmly recognises the integral role that creators play” in the UK’s creative industries and the fact that they help “to drive billions into the economy” and support more than 45,000 jobs.

“We understand more can be done to help creators reach their full potential, which is why we are backing them through our new Creative Industries Sector Plan,” he said.

“The UK has got a fantastic history of supporting the creative industries,” said Ben Woods, a creator economy analyst, Midia Research who was not involved in the report.

“Whether you look at the film side, lots of blockbuster films are being shot here, or television, which is making waves on the global stage.

“But perhaps the government needs to broaden that lens a little bit to look at just what’s going on within the creator economy as well, because it is highly valuable, it’s where younger audiences are spending a lot of their time and [the UK is] really good at it.”

According to YouTube, formal recognition would mean creators are factored into official economic impact data reporting, are represented on government creative bodies, and receive creator-specific guidance from HMRC on taxes and finances.

For some, financial guidance and clarity would be invaluable; the ‘creator’ job title seems to cause problems when applying for mortgages or bank loans.

“It’s really difficult as a freelancer to get things like mortgages and bank accounts and credit and those types of things,” said podcaster David Brown, who owns a recording studio for creators.

“A lot of people make very good money doing it,” he told Sky News.

“They’re very well supported. They have a lot of cash flow, and they are successful at doing that job. It’s just the way society and banking and everything is set up. It makes it really difficult.”

The creative industries minister said he is committed to appointing a creative freelance champion and increasing support from the British Business Bank in order to “help creators thrive and drive even more growth in the sector”.

The government has already pledged to boost the UK’s creative industries, launching a plan to make the UK the number one destination for creative investment and promising an extra £14bn to the sector by 2035.

These influencers want to make sure they are recognised as part of that.