MLB Power Rankings: A red-hot AL team makes top-5 debut
Tomorrow marks the first day of September — meaning the race for October is only going to get more intense from here.
While a few teams are staring down the postseason as they sit atop their division with a comfortable lead, a number of squads have a lot left to play for in the final month of the regular season.
That includes three divisional rivals in the American League, who are not only neck-in-neck fighting for positioning in the playoffs but also in our standings, as one makes its debut in the top five for the first time this season. Who will come out on top?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 21 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 87-45
Previous ranking: 1
The best regular-season team in Braves history was the 1998 squad that finished 106-56 with a plus-245 run differential. The 2023 Braves will need to finish strong to get there, but they show no signs of slowing down. Entering Wednesday’s game, they were on pace for 106 wins and a plus-286 run differential. Six regulars are hitting around .300 in August as is part-timer Nicky Lopez. The four-game series at Dodger Stadium will be an interesting playoff preview, and they have seven games left against the Phillies, but the Braves certainly have a shot at 107 wins, even if they start resting some of the regulars a bit in September. — Schoenfield
Record: 83-49
Previous ranking: 2
The Dodgers are surging through August, winning 24 of their 28 games to increase their National League West lead to a whopping 14½ games. And their two MVP candidates, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, have predictably shouldered a lot of the weight, combining to hit over .400 and slugging around .700 this month. Betts in particular boasts a major league-best 1.309 OPS in August and is making a late surge to chase down the Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. and capture his second MVP Award. Betts is slashing .316/.410/.611 with 36 home runs and 10 stolen bases for the year. With one day left in August, his 7.5 FanGraphs wins above replacement easily top the NL, with Freeman (6.8) and Acuna (6.5) lagging slightly behind. All three will share the same field beginning today, with the Dodgers and Braves set for a four-game series from Dodger Stadium. — Gonzalez
Record: 83-50
Previous ranking: 3
For anyone waiting for the Orioles to regress on the basis of their run differential, it ain’t happening. Rather than Baltimore’s record moving towards its differential, it’s the opposite. On July 24, the Orioles had a 162-game win pace of an even 100, though their run differential suggested they were actually more like an 89-win team. The prevailing analytic wisdom is that run differential is more predictive of a team’s future record than actual record. Well, tell that to the O’s. After Baltimore clubbed the White Sox on Tuesday, their 162-game win pace was up to 102, while the differential was that of a 93-win club. There’s still a disparity, of course, but the bottom line is that the Orioles have an awful lot of wins in the bank, and they just keep getting better. — Doolittle
Record: 82-52
Previous ranking: 5
As the Rays’ offense keeps rolling, the performance of Isaac Paredes continues to stand out even among a lineup full of hot hitters. Paredes is one of the more unsung players in the game. Perhaps it’s because he plays in Tampa/St. Petersburg, or perhaps it’s because he’s a third baseman in an era unusually prolific in star third basemen. But it’s time for Paredes to get some due.
After homering and driving in four against Miami on Tuesday, Paredes was on pace to top both the 30-homer and 100-RBI thresholds this season. Only four Rays have ever done that: Carlos Pena (2007, 2008, 2009), Evan Longoria (2009), Aubrey Huff (2003) and brand new Hall of Famer Fred McGriff (1999). Paredes ranks sixth among primary third baseman by bWAR, ahead of luminaries such as Rafael Devers, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado. — Doolittle
Record: 76-57
Previous ranking: 7
With their victory on Sunday and a Rangers loss, the Mariners temporarily moved into sole possession of first place, the latest they’ve been in first place since 2001. Julio Rodriguez followed up with a four-hit game on Monday, making him the first player since 1900 with five four-hit games in a 10-game stretch. He hit .596 over those 10 games with five home runs and 16 RBIs. He missed Tuesday’s game with a pinched nerve in his foot, however, and the Mariners have him listed as day-to-day. They’ll need his red-hot bat in the lineup as the schedule now gets more difficult, starting with a 10-game road trip against the Mets, Reds and Rays. — Schoenfield
Record: 77-58
Previous ranking: 6
Michael Brantley is back. The Astros activated Brantley from the injured list on Tuesday and he made his season debut that night at Fenway Park, going 0-for-4. It was his first MLB action since June 26, 2022, and his return positions him to play a part in Houston’s title defense after he missed last year’s championship run. Brantley hit just one homer in 16 rehab games for Triple-A Sugar Land, but other than that, he hit very much like Michael Brantley. He posted a .298/.453/.447 slash line for the Space Cowboys, with 15 walks and one — one! — strikeout. The Astros, who are last in the majors in plate appearances by lefty hitters, can use a guy like that. Anyone could. — Doolittle
Record: 75-58
Previous ranking: 4
The Rangers lost eight in a row and then lost hold of first place in the American League West as the hard-charging Mariners overtook them. A series win over the Mets helped right the ship, though, as their pitching stabilized after a rough ride. Andrew Heaney threw a needed 5⅓ shutout innings on Tuesday, striking out seven while giving up five hits and a walk. The night before, it was Jon Gray tossing a quality start. In the last 10 days, Rangers’ starters posted a 5.22 ERA. Most of the season, that part of their team has been great. Their one blip cost them first place. — Rogers
Record: 74-59
Previous ranking: 9
A series win over the Giants, a sweep of the Cardinals and a series win over the Angels have allowed the Phillies to open up a little breathing room in the wild-card race. Aaron Nola had back-to-back seven-inning starts — allowing no runs and two runs, respectively — and Bryce Harper has found his home run groove, with eight in a 13-game stretch, including his 300th career home run on Wednesday, in which he hit .458/.574/1.063 with 17 RBIs and struck out just five times.. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber hit seven home runs in an 11-game stretch, hitting .275 with more walks than strikeouts and a 1.317 OPS. A locked-in Harper and Schwarber? Watch out. — Schoenfield
Record: 74-59
Previous ranking: 10
A nine-game win streak came to an end on Tuesday in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs, but Milwaukee firmly established itself as a possible playoff force during the run. It started after the team arrived in Texas for a series at 4 a.m. local time. The Brewers swept the Rangers that weekend before doing the same to the first-place Twins a couple days later, and then Milwaukee buried the Padres with a home sweep. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are doing their thing, but Freddy Peralta has also been excellent. He averaged over nine strikeouts in five August starts, all wins by the Brewers. The NL Central is theirs to lose in September. — Rogers
Record: 73-61
Previous ranking: 8
Even as the Blue Jays slip increasingly behind in the playoff race, Davis Schneider has established himself as a spectacled, mustachioed folk hero. Over his first 14 big league games, the Blue Jays’ 28th-round selection in 2017 went 19-for-45 with nine walks, six homers, 14 RBIs and a .426/.526/.894 slash line. Can he keep it up? Well, either Schneider is due for a major regression, or he’s the best hitter who ever lived. We’ll leave it up to what you want to believe. — Doolittle
Record: 71-62
Previous ranking: 12
Justin Steele continues to make his Cy Young case as he tossed another six shutout innings against the Brewers in a tight 1-0 win on Tuesday. His 2.69 ERA is second only to Blake Snell in the NL. The outing helped stabilize a Cubs rotation that’s now relying on two pitchers — lefty Jordan Wicks and righty Javier Assad — who have limited experience in the big leagues. Wicks made his MLB debut on Saturday against the Pirates, striking out nine while featuring a change-up — a rarity for left-handed pitchers. The Cubs could use more production out of righty Jameson Taillon down the stretch. He’s given up at least four runs in his last four starts, tying a career high set earlier this season. — Rogers
Record: 69-65
Previous ranking: 13
When the week began, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly had combined for a 3.32 ERA in 52 starts, making up one of the best one-two punches in the sport — not to mention one of the biggest reasons why the D-backs remained in contention. In back-to-back starts against the Dodgers on Monday and Tuesday, however, Gallen and Kelly combined to allow 13 runs on 21 hits and six walks in 10⅓ innings, taking the loss in both outings. The D-backs have taken some major steps forward this year, but the gap between them and the Dodgers is still really wide, especially in recent weeks. There’s no better evidence of that than watching their two best pitchers by far struggle mightily against them. — Gonzalez
Record: 69-65
Previous ranking: 14
The development of Royce Lewis was slowed by injuries, but through it all, his talent has shined through and continues to do so at the big league level. Lewis was the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, but a pair of ACL tears kept him on the Baseball America top 100 prospects list six straight years. His rise to the majors required a lot of patience and perseverance, but he is in Minnesota now, and he’s doing what you hope a first overall pick will do.
Lewis mashed grand slams in back-to-back games this week, becoming the first player in the history of the Senators/Twins to do so. He followed that up with a solo homer in the subsequent game. The sample size on his big league numbers remains small, but if you want to dream on him a little, consider this: Over his first 51 MLB games, he slashed .312/.354/.538 with 162-game paces of 35 homers and 108 RBIs, all while posting positive defensive metrics at third base. The wait certainly appears to have been worth it. — Doolittle
Record: 69-64
Previous ranking: 15
Alex Cobb came within one out of throwing a no-hitter against the electric Reds on Tuesday, ultimately giving up an RBI double to Spencer Steer before finishing with a 131-pitch complete game. Only three men reached base. It might not have been a historic start, but it was further indication of how crucial Cobb, 35, has been for this year’s Giants. His ERA is down to 3.57 in 141⅓ innings. He and Logan Webb have basically been the only mainstays in the rotation. But Kyle Harrison, their 22-year-old rookie, has allowed just two runs in 9⅔ innings in his first two starts, striking out 16 batters. He could change the dynamic down the stretch as the Giants look to secure a wild-card spot in a hyper-competitive field. — Gonzalez
Record: 69-65
Previous ranking: 11
After a three-game road series against the lowly Royals, the Red Sox will begin a brutal make-or-break part of their schedule on Sept. 4. Boston will play at Tampa Bay, at home against the Orioles and Yankees, and then on the road at Toronto and Texas. The contests against the offensively-potent Rays, Orioles and Rangers are of particular concern for the Red Sox’s ice cold run prevention, which has not warmed up over the last week. Since Aug. 16, the Red Sox rank as a bottom-five team in the majors in team ERA. On top of all that, Boston will finish the season without Jarren Duran, whose turf toe injury required surgery. It was a breakout season at the plate for Duran, who entered the 2023 campaign with a career OPS+ of 69 but leaped to a 120 mark this season. — Doolittle
Record: 69-66
Previous ranking: 16
A late-season West Coast trip hasn’t been kind to the Reds as they struggled on offense to begin the week. They were nearly no-hit by Cobb and the Giants on Tuesday, managing just one run in the ninth inning — their third straight game scoring two or less runs. Nick Martini has been a nice find for Cincinnati, though. He went 6-for-16 over a seven-day span ending on Tuesday that included two home runs and six RBIs. Martini has raked since coming up from Triple-A recently and has been a much-needed addition for an up-and-down offense. The Reds have fallen behind in the wild-card race, but once they get into September, their schedule lightens up. They’re down but not out. — Rogers
Record: 66-67
Previous ranking: 17
It’s beginning to slip away from the Marlins. They’re still in the wild-card chase, but now have three teams to jump over. And they just haven’t played good baseball since June, going 9-15 in July and 9-17 in August. In their latest 2-8 stretch, they scored just 17 runs while hitting .207/.254/.319. It didn’t help that they actually had leads in two of those games, but closer David Robertson lost them late. Robertson looked like a good trade deadline move, but he’s blown three of his six save chances, losing all three of those games and his role as closer. — Schoenfield
Record: 62-72
Previous ranking: 18
Is it time to give up any hope on these Padres? They’re surely making it tempting. The Padres were swept in a weekend series against the Brewers, and two days later they lost to the hapless Cardinals in extra innings. It moved the Padres to 0-11 in extra innings in 2023 — one loss away from tying the 1969 Montreal Expos, an expansion team that lost 110 games, for the worst record in extra-inning games in a single season. Worse: The Padres placed Yu Darvish on the IL with elbow inflammation on Sunday. Darvish wants to return before the end of the season, as does Joe Musgrove, who’s recovering from shoulder inflammation. But if the Padres can’t get into contention by mid-September, it won’t be worth the risk. — Gonzalez
Record: 65-68
Previous ranking: 21
The Yankees sent a clear message on Tuesday that they’re turning the page and looking to next season with their decisions to place center fielder Harrison Bader on waivers and release third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Bader could stick around if he goes unclaimed, but the focus in New York remains on going-forward evaluation. With Donaldson on the IL most of the year, the Yankees have leaned on veterans like D.J. LeMahieu and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at the hot corner. In recent games, however, Oswald Peraza had gotten the lion’s share of the time at the position, so we can expect that to continue with Donaldson now an ex-Yankee. It was less clear what the Bombers had in mind for center field, until they called up Jasson Dominguez — whose status as “phenom” has been up and down — on Thursday, with the intention of activating him prior to the team’s series against the Astros starting Friday. Dominguez, 20, played just eight games at Triple-A before being called up, going 12-for-27 with five walks and just two strikeouts. — Doolittle
Record: 64-70
Previous ranking: 20
The Noah Syndergaard experiment didn’t work out as the Guardians designated him for assignment after six starts and a 5.40 ERA. The Guardians did manage to go 3-3 in his starts, and in one of the losses he allowed just one run, so he’s hardly the reason the team has fallen behind the Twins after starting the month just one game out of first place. Indeed, they can look at their 5-8 record against the White Sox and 3-7 record against the Tigers as two teams they should have — or could have — done better against. They do have one last series against the Twins beginning Monday, and they’ll need to sweep that to have any chance at the division. — Schoenfield
Record: 62-72
Previous ranking: 23
The Nationals lost to the Blue Jays on Wednesday for their first series loss after previously winning six straight in August against the A’s, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees and Marlins. They are 26-18 in the second half, the same record as the Phillies and nearly as good as the Braves (27-16) and Astros (27-17). They’ve done that despite a 5.16 ERA that ranks in the bottom third in the majors since the All-Star break. The offense ranks in the bottom half of the majors in OPS in the second half, so I wouldn’t necessarily interpret this stretch as a sure sign that the Nationals are suddenly much improved. But they’re learning to win, and the organization will no doubt look to improve its roster depth in the offseason.
One key that has kept their season respectable: They’ve used just seven starters, tied for fewest in the majors. Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Trevor Williams have each made 26 starts, while Patrick Corbin made his 27th Wednesday. — Schoenfield
Record: 64-70
Previous ranking: 19
The Angels flooded the waiver wire with a handful of notable players on Tuesday, a list that included starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk, and relievers Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. The decision was made, at least in part, in an effort to get back under the luxury-tax threshold. But it also embodied their harsh reality.
By that point, the Angels had gone 7-17 since the Aug. 1 trade deadline — a time when they not only decided to keep Shohei Ohtani, but also shed prospects to acquire some of the aforementioned rentals. Ohtani has since been diagnosed with a torn UCL that will prevent him from pitching the rest of the year, Mike Trout is back on the IL, and nobody seems to have any idea if Anthony Rendon will play again this season. The Angels’ decisions a month ago — inspired as it might have been — might ultimately set this franchise back several years. — Gonzalez
Record: 61-73
Previous ranking: 22
Francisco Lindor has quietly reached 5.1 WAR, which ranks him 10th among all position players. With a strong finish, he has a chance to reach 100 runs and 100 RBIs in the same season for the first time in his career, after just missing last season (98 runs, 107 RBIs). Some of his value is in quantity — he’s missed just two games — but he’s played excellent defense (he could win a Gold Glove) and swiped 24 bases in 26 attempts. His 118 OPS+ is right at his career average of 117. Does it feel like he’s been one of the best players in the game? Not really, but other than his mediocre .251 average, he’s excelled at everything else. — Schoenfield
Record: 59-74
Previous ranking: 24
Reports came out this week that Casey Mize, who has missed the entire 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, faced live batters last weekend for the first time during his recovery process. It’s not out of the question that we could see Mize before the end of the season. He wouldn’t be stretched out, but, nevertheless, the Tigers could get a glimpse of their core 2024 rotation on the same MLB staff for the first time all season.
Two of those building blocks — Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal — continue to trend in the right direction. Manning, who tweaked his back in his last outing and had to have a scheduled start pushed back, has allowed just one earned run over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Skubal has a 3.93 ERA over 10 starts since returning to the big league rotation on July 4. He’s really been even better than that: Skubal’s 2.41 FIP since that date is the best in the majors, according to Fangraphs. — Doolittle
Record: 61-73
Previous ranking: 26
Mitch Keller has returned to pre-All Star break form as he pitched eight scoreless innings against the Cubs last Friday. Including his previous two starts, Keller has given up just three runs over 20 innings. Take away three earlier outings in the second half, where he gave up 22 runs, and Keller has been one of the better pitchers in the game. It gives the Pirates a pitcher to build around as they slowly attempt to come out of a long rebuilding cycle. The long awaited return of Oneil Cruz was unfortunately put on hold as his injury wasn’t fully healed. Pittsburgh missed him as the season wore on, coinciding with their fall in the standings. — Rogers
Record: 58-76
Previous ranking: 25
Playing out the string has not looked pretty for the Cardinals. The one thing to play for isn’t even going their way as Adam Wainwright is still stuck on 198 wins. He’s pitched better in two of his last three starts, but the offense has dried up with him on the mound — scoring a total of six runs in those outings. As a team, St. Louis had the worst week at the plate in MLB, hitting just .147 with a .470 OPS over a five-day span ending Tuesday. Nolan Arenado went 0-for-15 during that stretch while Nolan Gorman went 1-for-13. Ugly doesn’t begin to describe the Cardinals’ season. — Rogers
Record: 53-81
Previous ranking: 28
Despite Chicago’s struggles, Luis Robert Jr. has set career marks in doubles and home runs in his breakout year. He’s also been consistent, hitting at least five long balls in each month while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center. Robert isn’t fully formed as a hitter just yet — as evidenced by his 149-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio — but he’s chasing 3% less than last season, meaning he’s improving upon his big weakness. As the White Sox retool, they have a player to build around. It’s one bright spot in an otherwise terrible year for the organization. — Rogers
Record: 49-84
Previous ranking: 27
The worst run-differential in Rockies history took place in 1993, the team’s inaugural season, when they finished at minus-209. With more than a month of baseball ahead of them, the 2023 Rockies stand at minus-197. They’re also on pace for their first 100-loss season in franchise history. The Rockies have been a disaster since they last reached the postseason in 2018. And given that their farm system ranked 18th when ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel revealed his updated rankings in mid-August, it could be a while until they’re relevant again. — Gonzalez
Record: 41-94
Previous ranking: 29
The Royals may have pulled off a rare coup — for them — in picking up Cole Ragans in the Aroldis Chapman trade. The former first-round pick had struggled in a relief role with the Rangers with a 5.95 ERA, but the Royals moved him into their rotation after a brief hiatus in Triple-A. In seven starts, he has a 1.73 ERA with 56 strikeouts and just one home run in 41⅔ innings — including back-to-back scoreless outings with 20 strikeouts in his last two starts. Ragans has had two Tommy John surgeries and was throwing in the 92-93 mph range with the Rangers, but his velocity has suddenly ticked up to 96 mph and his cutter and slider have been dominant as well. His 53 strikeouts in August tied for the second most in a month in Royals history behind Dennis Leonard, who had 55 in June of 1977. — Schoenfield
Record: 39-95
Previous ranking: 30
The A’s, who will host the Angels over the weekend, haven’t notched a home sweep of at least three games all year. They had a prime opportunity to do so last Wednesday, against the similarly hapless Royals, but they were shut out in the finale. The A’s offense ranks dead last in the majors in OPS and has been shut out 14 times so far this year, tied with the Tigers, Mets and Royals for the major league lead. Zero sweeps at home, but they’ve been the victim of a home sweep on eight occasions. — Gonzalez
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
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