Ukraine might have thwarted Russian ambitions to subjugate the whole of the country, but it faces a Herculean task if it is to expel Russian forces from occupied territories completely.
It cannot afford to be trapped in an attritional battle that it would struggle to win; instead, it has exploited drone technology to provide an asymmetric advantage.
Drones are low cost, widely available, and effective, but are relatively slow and thus easy to shoot down.
So why have they proven so effective for Ukraine?
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4:45
Ukraine’s drone attack explained
A drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) without any human pilot, crew, or passengers on board, and they are often remotely controlled; however, with the advent of AI, they are increasingly autonomous.
Drones rose to prominence in the post-9/11 era when long-endurance surveillance was required.
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Since then, rapid advances in satellite technology have driven down both the cost and weight of sensors, with obvious military benefits.
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0:18
Ukraine drone intact after chase
Ukraine’s battlefield intelligence is evolving at speed
Since the Second World War, battlefield surveillance has been a vital way to identify – and then target – enemy forces.
Balloons hoisted spotters high above the frontlines to help mortar crews zero in on their prey, to devastating effect.
Over a century later, tactical nano-drones are providing Ukraine with the same battlefield intelligence, with the added benefit of providing highly accurate target locations and indeed even laser guidance for precision munitions.
Despite Russian efforts to thwart Ukrainian drones, Ukrainian operators use their “downtime” to disassemble their drones, add extra capability, and update the software.
Their dedication means that, by dawn, they have an updated and even more deadly drone to field against the Russians.
This rate of innovation is unprecedented and is not emulated by the predictable and archaic Russian military.
Image: A woman cries on the coffin of Ukrainian helicopter navigator, Ivan Yaroviy, in Poltava. Pic: AP
Image: Ukrainian soldiers burying flight engineer Yuriy Anisimov in Poltava. Pic: AP
But, drones fly slowly, have very limited self-protection and are therefore vulnerable.
And, since their size and range limit payload, drones have traditionally been more of an irritant than decisive military weapons.
Although Ukraine cannot use Western-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory, Ukraine has leveraged online crowdfunding to help procure a wide range of commercially available drones.
When modified, these have proven very effective at degrading Russian logistics resupply lines, fuel depots and ammunition dumps, overwhelming defences with simultaneous attacks.
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A profound psychological impact for Ukraine’s underdogs
Strategically, Ukraine has also managed to use a blend of missiles and drones to attack targets deep inside Russian territory.
Whereas Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities have simply hardened Ukrainian resolve to defeat the Russian invader, Ukrainian attacks on Moscow have had a profound psychological impact on Muscovites – by undermining Vladimir Putin’s claim that he was forced to invade Ukraine to protect Russians – which he is failing to do.
Russia has robust air defence systems, but these are designed to combat limited numbers of ballistic missile attacks, not waves of drones.
Air defence missiles are ferociously expensive and missiles are of limited supply – a Patriot missile costs $4m which is over 1,000x more expensive than most of the drones – so in drone wars, quantity has a quality all of its own.
Russia’s conventional and predictable approach to warfare has enabled Ukraine to exploit technology and innovation to target the Black Sea Fleet, strategic Russian fighter and bomber bases far behind the frontlines and airports (including Moscow).
Image: A satellite image shows the air base in Pskov. Pic: AP
Individually, these targets are not tactically significant, but collectively they have exposed Russian vulnerability and helped Ukraine counter Russia’s conventional military advantage.
Drones might not win the war, but they have provided a rare asymmetric advantage to the Ukraine underdogs.
However, it is not only Russia that is heavily reliant on legacy equipment and doctrine, and the West must adapt to innovate and exploit technology apace, to combat future asymmetric threats such as rogue states or terrorism.
Drone wars have moved from the realms of fiction into reality, with profound implications for global security.
Ukraine’s representatives are preparing for renewed peace talks in the US, while dramatic footage has shown Russian tankers being hit by naval drones.
President Zelenskyy said a delegation headed by national security chief Rustem Umerov was on its way to “swiftly and substantively work out the steps needed to end the war”.
They are due to be greeted by US secretary of state Marco Rubio, Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and the US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, a senior US official told Reuters news agency.
Image: National security chief Rustem Umerov is leading the delegation. Pic: Reuters
After the US-Ukraine talks, an American delegation is expected to travel to Moscow to meet President Putin.
It comes after Mr Trump released a 28-point proposal last week that would hand swathes of land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military.
It was widely seen as heavily favouring Russia and led Mr Zelenskyy to swiftly engage with American negotiators.
President Trump said on Tuesday his plan had been “fine-tuned”.
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1:05
Ukraine peace plan in 60 seconds
In his evening address on Saturday, the Ukrainian leader said: “The American side is demonstrating a constructive approach, and in the coming days it is feasible to flesh out the steps to determine how to bring the war to a dignified end.”
Mr Zelenskyy’s team in the US is without his former chief of staff and lead negotiator, Andrii Yermak, as he quit on Friday after officials raided his home amid a corruption scandal.
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2:59
What do we know about Ukraine’s corruption scandal?
Tankers hit by ‘Sea Baby’ drones
Ukrainian drones were shown hitting two of Russia‘s so-called “shadow fleet” oil tankers in the Black Sea in footage released on Saturday.
Friday’s attack was carried out by the country’s security service and its navy, an official told Reuters. They said both ships “sustained critical damage” that took them out of service.
A security source told Associated Press that domestically-made “Sea Baby” drones were used.
The tankers were under sanctions and heading to a Russian port to load up with oil destined for foreign markets, the official said.
They have been identified as the Kairos and Virat.
Image: The blasts hit tankers off Turkey’s Black Sea coast. Pic: Turkish Directorate General for Maritime Affairs/Reuters
The 274m-long Kairos suffered an explosion and caught fire en route from Egypt to Russia on Friday, Turkey’s transport ministry said. The crew was evacuated.
The Virat was reportedly struck about 35 nautical miles offshore.
It was attacked by unmanned vessels and sustained minor damage to its starboard side, the Turkish ministry said.
Russia deploys a fleet of often ageing, uninsured and unmarked tankers to circumvent sanctions on its oil exports, which continue to help pay for the Ukraine war.
Another Ukrainian attack halted operations at an oil terminal near the Russian port of Novorossiysk on Saturday.
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1:30
Russian drone and missile attack hits Kyiv
Andriy Kovalenko, from Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, said special forces were responsible.
“Naval drones managed to destroy one of the three oil tanker berths of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in the Novorossiysk area,” he wrote on Telegram.
Six killed in aerial attacks on Ukraine
Russia carried out another onslaught on the Ukrainian capital overnight into Saturday, firing 36 cruise and ballistic missiles and launching around 600 drones.
Officials said three people were killed in and around Kyiv, two in the Dnipropetrovsk region and one in a midday attack in Kherson region in the south.
Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 29 others were injured in Kyiv, largely due to falling debris from intercepted drones hitting buildings.
The attacks also hit Ukrainian energy facilities and left hundreds of thousands without power in the capital. Supplies have since been restored.
Targeting such infrastructure has become a familiar tactic from Russia over the winter, in what Ukraine officials say is the “weaponising” of the cold.
Grief was not lonely today in Hong Kong. Three days after the worst fire in the history of modern Hong Kong, it feels as though it has barely sunk in.
The weekend at least lent them time to pay tribute, and gave them some space to reflect.
People came in droves to lay flowers, so many a queuing system was needed.
Image: People queue with flowers near the site to mourn the victims of the deadly fire. Pic: AP
Official books of condolences were also set up in multiple parts of the city.
It was the first day large teams of investigators were able to enter the site. Dozens of them in hazmat suits were bused in, their work the grimmest of tasks.
Every so often you could see a flashlight peep through the window of an upper blackened window, a reminder that the fire services are still undertaking dangerous work.
But the reach of the authorities is ramping up here.
Image: Firefighters walk through the burned buildings after the deadly fire. Pic: AP
Yesterday a grass roots aid distribution centre was the vibrant heart of the response.
They received notice at 4am that they needed to pack up and move on. By 10.30am, the mountains of donations were gone, residents watched on, bewildered.
The task apparently will be handed over to professional NGOs.
“I think the government’s biggest concern is due to some past incidents,” one organiser tells us. “They may liken this to previous events. The essence looks similar.”
Image: Pic: AP
She’s careful with her words, but she’s clearly hinting at major pro-democracy protests that were crushed by authorities in 2019.
Any sort of mass gathering is now seen as a risk, the system is still very nervous.
And they might well be because people here are angry.
What, they ask, did the government know? What did it choose to ignore?
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3:14
How Hong Kong’s government failed to act on fire fears
Indeed, Sky News has learnt that residents raised their fears over fire safety connected to extensive renovations on Wang Fuk Court as early as September 2024.
They flagged the suspected flammability of green nets being used to cover the building.
An email response from the Labour Department was sent a few months later to Jason Poon, a civil engineer-turned-activist, who was working with residents. It insists that “the mesh’s flame retardant properties meet safety standards”.
But many clearly didn’t believe it. Posts spanning many months on a residents’ Facebook group continued to voice their fears.
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Hong Kong fire survivors supported by community
When a much smaller fire broke out in the city last month, one resident posted: “All the materials outside are flammable, I feel really worried.”
“I feel that same way” another replied. “The government has no sense of concern.”
For Poon, who dedicates much of his time to fighting lax safety standards in Hong Kong’s construction industry, the whole experience has been devastating.
“They knew all the maintenance was using corner-cutting materials, but they didn’t do anything,” he says.
“This is a man-made disaster.”
We put these allegations to Hong Kong’s Labour Department but they have not yet responded to our request for comment.
Grief may still be the prominent force here, but anger is not that far behind.
More than 300 people have died and dozens are missing following floods and landslides in Indonesia, which has also been hit by an earthquake.
Monsoon rains over the past week caused rivers to burst their banks in North Sumatra province.
The deluge tore through mountainside villages, swept away people and submerged thousands of houses and buildings, the National Disaster Management Agency said.
As rescue workers continued their efforts on Saturday, the head of the country’s disaster mitigation agency said the number of dead had risen to at least 303 people. Authorities fear the figure will increase.
Image: Flooded buildings in Medan, North Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Binsar Bakkara
Other Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have also been affected by torrential rain in the last week, with authorities working to rescue stranded citizens, restore power and communications and coordinate recovery efforts.
On Friday, the Thai government said 145 people had been killed by flooding across eight southern provinces, while two deaths have also been confirmed in Malaysia. Sri Lanka, in South Asia, has also seen 46 deaths following a cyclone, authorities said.
Image: Medan, North Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Binsar Bakkara
The extreme weather was driven by tropical cyclone Senyar, which formed in the Strait of Malacca, Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency said.
Rescuers in Indonesia have been struggling to reach some areas cut off by damaged roads, and where communications lines have come down.
Relief aircraft have been delivering aid and supplies to the hard-hit district of Central Tapanuli in North Sumatra and other provinces in the region.
Image: Tanah Datar, West Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Ali Nayaka
The agency said West Sumatra’s Agam district had also been affected.
Pictures of the rescue efforts show workers trudging through waist-deep mud and areas filled with tree trunks and debris, searching for any victims potentially trapped.
In Aceh province, flooded roads meant authorities struggled to get tractors and other heavy equipment to hilly hamlets which were hit by mud and rocks in the deluge.
Image: Malalak, West Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Nazar Chaniago
Hundreds of police officers, soldiers and residents dug through the debris with their bare hands and spades as heavy rain hindered their efforts.
Meanwhile, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake hit Sumatra island near Aceh province on Thursday, the country’s geophysics agency said.
Heavy seasonal rain from about October to March often causes flooding and landslides in Indonesia– an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands including Sumatra – where millions of people live in mountainous areas or near fertile floodplains.
Last week, almost 1,000 people from three villages on Java were forced to flee to shelters after the eruption of Mount Semeru, the island’s highest volcano.