Adam Boulton: MPs are heading back to Westminster – but are they all keeping an eye on a looming election?
MPs are returning to Westminster on Monday for the rapidly accelerating downhill run to the next general election.
Thanks to Boris Johnson’s success in repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act there is no precise guidance as to when that date with political destiny will be.
The next general election could even take place the year after next.
If this parliament runs right up to the constitutional buffers, the Commons would be dissolved on 17 December 2024, with the general election taking place no later than 28 January 2025.
Would the Conservatives be wise to campaign for last-gasp re-election through Christmas and the traditional January blues?
Probably not.
The general assumption is that the prime minister will have to screw up his courage and ask the King to call the general election during 2024.
The nation faces months of torrid electioneering until then.
A Sunak win would go against the pattern of history
British politics since 2016 have been dominated by turmoil within the Conservative Party.
It is difficult to boast of any significant achievements by UK plc in that time.
Broken Britain and the Cost Of Living Crisis dominate the public conversation.
Opinion polls are consistently against the Conservatives.
In any case, Sir Anthony Seldon, chronicler of prime ministers, points out for Rishi Sunak to win “would be a unique historic achievement – no party since modern electoral politics were born in 1832 has won a fifth general election in a row”.
Yet that is what the prime minister is attempting.
An immediate Kamikaze early election to get it all over now is not on his agenda.
Sunak wants to celebrate his first anniversary as prime minister on 25 October.
He has just tinkered with a cabinet reshuffle and is planning to host an international conference on Artificial Intelligence as well as a King’s Speech on 7 November.
He spelt out his priorities for the new term before the summer recess in a speech to Tory MPs in the 1922 Committee: “When we come back in September we have a choice to make… do we come together and throw everything at winning the next election or not?
“I’ve made my choice, I’m all in with you to win.”
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Anger over Shapps appointment
By-elections will loom over conference season
Coming together will not be easy in the next few months, not least because MPs will not be legislating together very much.
They will be back at Westminster for barely a fortnight before going into recess until 16 October for an unusually prolonged party conference season.
Further recesses are likely before the King’s speech and for the autumn half-term.
A first order of business next week will be moving the writs – setting the dates – for the two pending by-elections in the seats vacated by Nadine Dorries in Mid-Bedfordshire and by the SNP’s Margaret Ferrier in Rutherglen & West Hamilton.
The results are bound to overshadow the conference season.
The Liberal Democrats meet in Bournemouth in the last week of September, followed in the first half of October by the Conservatives in Manchester, then Labour in Liverpool, and finally the SNP in Aberdeen.
No party can relax about these by-elections.
Expectations are highest for Labour.
Sir Keir Starmer‘s chances of leading a majority government will be boosted if Labour shows it can take back seats from the Scottish nationalists.
Capturing Mid Beds would be a record-breaking result, and act as smashing confirmation of Labour’s standing in the polls and its recent by-election victory in Selby & Ainsty.
Or not.
A split in votes between Labour, Liberal Democrat and independent candidates, could allow the Conservatives to hold on.
This would be a boost for Sunak whatever the underlying realities of the electoral arithmetic.
Tony Blair’s path to Labour’s victory in 1997 was famously likened to “a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor”.
Starmer is currently attempting a similar feat.
Sunak’s hope is that some scandal, party row, or misjudgement makes his opponent drop the vase.
But Starmer is stolid and cautious and Labour looks as united as the feuding Tories look disunited.
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Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge
Tories are at loggerheads but will throw everything at it
Sunak hopes to use the legislative agenda to “throw everything” at winning the general election.
That means looking for wedge issues – which could cast the opposition in a bad light.
Unfortunately for him, as was shown in the aftermath of the surprise hanging on of Johnson’s former seat in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the Conservatives are at loggerheads over what those policies should be.
In the clear-up session this month Tories are tussling in both the Lords and Commons over the Online Harms Bill, the Energy Bill and the proposed changes on housing and river pollution added to the Levelling-Up Bill by Michael Gove.
Conservative factions are also lining up to take each other on at the Conference – #CPC23 to its organisers.
Centrist “One Nation” Tories are rallying in advance while the Conservative Democratic Organisation is holding a black-tie dinner on the opening night in Manchester graced by right-wing luminaries including Priti Patel, Lord Frost and David Campbell Bannerman.
Nadine Dorries and Theresa May will be there too for the launch of their books, attacking the direction of the party from different sides.
Liz Truss, last year’s prime minister, is expected.
Johnson’s attendance plans are not known.
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Sunak will try to dispel divisions in his party with what he puts into his first King’s speech.
The programme for government is likely to be aspirational for the next government rather than offering immediate remedies for the state of the nation, along the lines of the government’s small boats, NHS and crime weeks during the summer break.
The reshuffle appointment of Sunak-loyalist Claire Coutinho as Energy Security Secretary will confirm fears of Conservatives such as Zac Goldsmith that the prime minister will deploy green policy scepticism as a wedge against Labour.
First-term MP Coutinho has no track record on the environment.
PM’s priorities offer a clue to election timing
The prime minister’s five pledges remain his priorities.
The most likely to succeed is halving inflation, or coming close to it.
Little more than warm words are expected in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement.
By the Budget in March, some Tories think there may be a “soft spot” of economic optimism, allowing Hunt to tee up a spring election.
Most of those calling for this early vote belong to a “things can only get worse” tendency who fear a recession and still more mortgage pain later in 2024.
As they approach the end of their term, incumbent prime ministers often use local elections as a weathervane before calling a general election.
As things stand, Sunak has little to look forward to in next year’s set of elections in predominantly Labour-leaning metropolitan boroughs, featuring 10 high-profile mayoral contests, including in London and Greater Manchester.
A general election at the same time, on 2 May 2024, could soften the blow.
Read more from Adam Boulton
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Alternatively, if Sunak hesitates and the Conservatives do well against expectations, a June general election could follow.
Sunak’s deputy chief of staff has told his team to enjoy next month’s party conference because it could be the last before the election.
Conventional wisdom at Westminster is that this time next year the general election campaign will be under way – with a vote in October wiping out next year’s costly conference season.
In the most recently reported figures, Labour raised more money from donors than the Conservatives.
There has not been an autumn general election in the UK for 50 years.
Sometimes conventional wisdom can be wrong about the dates and the outcomes of elections.
For example, it cannot take account of external factors.
By next September it should be clearer which way the Ukraine war is heading and whether the United States is poised to re-elect Donald Trump.
We can be certain, however, that British politicians and voters are already caught up in a bitterly contentious long campaign to election day and beyond.
Homelessness charities have warned that ministers are “falling short of what is desperately needed to end Britain’s homelessness crisis”.
It comes as the government published its new plan to tackle rough sleeping in Britain, which pledges £3.5bn of funding to crackdown on the issue.
But charities have said Labour’s National Plan to End Homelessness “falls short” and contains “important gaps”, meaning the party will not be able to achieve their stated goal of halving the number of homeless people by 2029/30.
Crisis, an organisation that supports the homeless, also argues that only £100m of the funding announced in the strategy is new.
Meanwhile, Labour MP Paula Barker, who co-chairs the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for ending homelessness, has told Sky News that the strategy has a “depressing lack of meat on the bone”, looks like it has been “rushed out”, and has left her “disappointed”.
It comes as Shelter warns that 382,618 people in England – including a record 175,025 children – will be homeless this Christmas, equivalent to one in every 153 people.
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Working but homeless: Daniel’s story
What does the government’s plan to reduce rough sleeping involve?
The government has made three key pledges in its new plan, unveiled on Wednesday evening.
It says that it is aiming to halve the number of long-term rough sleepers by the end of the parliament, reduce the time families spend living in bed and breakfasts (B&Bs), and prevent more people from becoming homeless in the first place.
To achieve this, the party has set out numerous new measures, schemes and extra funding.
A new £124m supported housing scheme is also being established, and the government hopes that it will help get 2,500 people in England off the streets.
Housing Secretary Steve Reed said homelessness is “one of the most profound challenges we face”, and suggested that the strategy will build “a future where homelessness is rare, brief, and not repeated”.
How has the plan been received?
Ms Barker told Sky News she welcomes “the scale of investment”, but is “disappointed by what I have seen”.
The Labour MP explained: “From what I have seen so far, it leaves more questions than it answers – where are the clear measures around prevention? Where is the accommodation for people sleeping rough coming from – has it already been built? What about specialised provision for those fleeing domestic abuse?
“We needed this strategy to be bold.”
MP Paula Barker is ‘disappointed’ by what she has seen
Meanwhile, organisations working to support those on the streets have welcomed the plan for its focus on the issue, but warn it leaves it “almost impossible” for many families to avoid homelessness.
Matt Downie, the chief executive of Crisis, said: “Housing benefit remains frozen until at least 2030; there is no coherent approach for supporting refugees and stopping them becoming homeless; and we hear no assurances that the new homes government has pledged to build will be allocated to households experiencing homelessness at the scale required.
“There is a long way to go. Ministers are taking steps in the right direction, but falling short of what’s desperately needed to end Britain’s homelessness crisis.”
An exhibit organised to highlight the contrast between the Christmas period and an estimated 23,500 young people who will homeless. Pic: PA
Sarah Elliott, head of Shelter, also warned the proposals do not go far enough, saying: “Until a lot more of these social homes are built, one of the only ways to escape homelessness is if you can afford to pay a private rent.
“We know from our frontline services this is almost impossible to do when housing benefit remains frozen, and that is where the homelessness strategy falls short.”
Centrepoint, a charity that supports young people facing homelessness, said that the strategy is “an important step”, and could be “transformative”. But it added that “gaps in the government’s approach remain”, and said increases in funding “don’t face up to the scale of homelessness”.
The Conservatives have said that the strategy means Labour “has completely failed on homelessness”.
Paul Holmes, shadow housing minister, said the number of households and children in temporary accommodation has risen to “record levels”, and pointed to the government’s “abysmal record on house-building” and tackling immigration.
Australia’s securities regulator has finalized exemptions that will make it easier for businesses to distribute stablecoins and wrapped tokens.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) on Tuesday announced the new measures, aimed at fostering innovation and growth in the digital assets and payment sectors.
It stated that it was “granting class relief” for intermediaries engaging in the secondary distribution of certain stablecoins and wrapped tokens.
This means that companies no longer need separate, and often expensive, licenses to act as intermediaries in these markets, and they can now use “omnibus accounts” with proper record-keeping.
The new exemptions extend the earlier stablecoin relief by removing the requirement for intermediaries to hold separate Australian Financial Services (AFS) licenses when providing services related to stablecoins or wrapped tokens.
Leveling the playing field for stablecoin issuers
The regulator stated that these omnibus structures were widely used in the industry, offering efficiencies in speed and transaction costs, and helping some entities manage risk and cybersecurity.
“ASIC’s announcement helps level the playing field for stablecoin innovation in Australia,” said Drew Bradford, CEO of Australian stablecoin issuer Macropod.
“By giving both new and established players a clearer, more flexible framework, particularly around reserve and asset-management requirements, it removes friction and gives the sector confidence to build,” he continued.
Related: Australia risks ‘missed opportunity’ by shirking tokenization: top regulator
The old licensing requirements were costly and created compliance headaches, particularly for an industry awaiting broader digital asset reforms.
“This kind of measured clarity is essential for scaling real-world use cases, payments, treasury management, cross-border flows, and onchain settlement,” added Bradford.
“It signals that Australia intends to be competitive globally, while still maintaining the regulatory guardrails that institutions and consumers expect.”
Angela Ang, head of policy and strategic partnerships at TRM Labs, also welcomed the development, stating, “Things are looking up for Australia, and we look forward to digital assets regulation crystallizing further in the coming year — bringing greater clarity to the sector and driving growth and innovation.”
Global stablecoin growth surges
Total stablecoin market capitalization is at a record high of just over $300 billion, according to RWA.xyz.
It has grown by 48% since the beginning of this year, and Tether remains the dominant issuer with a 63% market share.
Magazine: XRP’s ‘now or never’ moment, Kalshi taps Solana: Hodler’s Digest
A group of Republicans has called foul after the US House passed a massive defense spending bill on Wednesday that omitted a ban on central bank digital currencies despite promises it would be included.
“Conservatives were promised — explicitly — that strong anti-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) language would be included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). That promise was broken,” GOP Representative Keith Self wrote to X on Wednesday.
The House voted 312-112 to pass the NDAA on Wednesday, sending the $900 billion annual military funding bill to the Senate in a bid to have it passed before the end of the year.
Self had filed an amendment on Tuesday to include a CBDC ban, which had been removed from the bill, but it failed to advance and did not see a vote on the House floor.
Self said a group of Republicans was “assured that anti-CBDC language would be included. Instead, we have been forced into a take-it-or-leave-it bill that breaks that promise. Without that language, I’m inclined to leave it.”
The more than 3,000-page bill is considered must-pass legislation and typically sees non-defense-related amendments that could otherwise be stalled or heavily revised if passed as standalone bills.
In July, House Republican leaders cut a deal with a group of party hardliners to put a CBDC ban in the defense spending bill after the group refused to move forward with three crypto bills unless a CBDC ban was guaranteed.
The bills had been held up in a record-long nine-hour procedural vote and included the stablecoin-regulating GENIUS Act, which President Donald Trump had pressured the GOP to quickly pass.
Related: Does GENIUS turn stablecoin issuers into stealth buyers of US debt?
GOP Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene slammed Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday for not keeping his promise of a CBDC ban, adding she supports crypto but “will never support giving the government the ability to turn off your ability to have full control of your money and to buy and sell.”
An early House version of the bill shared in August had included a CBDC ban, before it was subjected to amendments via multiple markups and committees.
The language of the provision banned the Federal Reserve from testing, studying, developing or issuing any digital currency or asset. It would have also stopped the central bank from offering financial products or services directly to individuals.
In July, the House passed a bill banning CBDCs, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, with a slim vote of 219-210, which has stalled in the Senate.
Self said he would “fight on in the next must-pass bill to ensure a CBDC never sees the light of day. Financial freedom isn’t negotiable.”
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