Germany is the ‘sick man of Europe’ — and it’s causing a shift to the right, top economist says
Germany is once again the “sick man of Europe,” according to Hans-Werner Sinn, president emeritus at the Ifo institute, and the challenges that poses, particularly in terms of the country’s energy strategy, could serve to benefit increasingly popular right-wing parties.
The “sick man of Europe” moniker has resurfaced in recent weeks as manufacturing output continues to stutter in the region’s largest economy and the country grapples with high energy prices. The label was originally used to describe the German economy in 1998 as it navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy.
“It is not a short-term phenomenon,” Sinn told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy on Friday.
It “has to do with the automobile industry, which is the heart of the German industry and many things hinge on that,” he said. Cars were Germany’s main export product last year, accounting for 15.6% of the value of goods sold abroad, federal statistics office data shows.
Germany reported a foreign trade deficit for the first time in decades in May 2022, totaling 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion). The country had briefly shifted from a trade surplus to importing more than it exports.
Germany has since returned to a trade surplus, which came to 18.7 billion euros in June 2023, according to the federal statistics office, but exports remain sluggish.
Plunge in business sentiment
Sinn said investor doubts about the feasibility of Germany’s sustainability goals also play into the description of the country as the “sick man of Europe.”
One target currently in the sights of the German government is becoming carbon neutral by 2045. These plans came into sharp focus as Europe looked to detach itself from Russian gas supplies following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and prices shot up.
Some described Germany’s ambitions to move away from Russian gas as “wildly optimistic,” particularly in light of the country’s climate targets.
Rain falls over the finance district and the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.
Thomas Lohnes | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum, Sinn said a reliance on renewable technologies such as wind and solar would cause a “volatility problem,” which could pose issues for businesses.
“You need to fill [those gaps] with conventional energy so it’s very difficult to have this double structure which we will have to sustain in the future. On the one hand the green volatile energy and on the other hand the conventional energy to fill the gaps,” he said.
“This is double cost. This is high energy cost and this is not good for industry. It is a difficult course.”
Germany could lose 2% to 3% of its current industrial capacity as companies move operations to countries where gas and electricity are cheaper, such as the U.S. or Saudi Arabia, according to a research note released in August by Berenberg.
Uncertainty about energy prices has likely contributed to a “plunge” in business sentiment, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, wrote in the note. He added that “the current policy uncertainty and the dismay about half-baked government plans are not structural factors that look set to hold back the German economy for long.”
There is a backlash clearly … The population is now moving to the right.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President emeritus at the Ifo institute
But there are growing signs of public disenchantment in the shift to a more sustainable Europe, with a so-called “greenlash” emerging as people feel the cost impacts.
Sinn suggested there would be political ramifications as a result of the focus on sustainability.
“There is a backlash clearly … The population is now moving to the right,” Sinn said, referring to the popularity of the right-leaning Alternative for Germany party, which won a district council election for the first time in June.
“I am not moving to evaluate anything here, but … the policies which were, for ideological reasons, completely overdrawn … Pragmatism is a little bit missing in current policy,” he added.
Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Despite its small size, Volvo’s cheapest EV continued its dominant run last month in Europe. The Volvo EX30 was Europe’s second-best-selling EV, behind only the Tesla Model Y, as sales continued surging.
Volvo EX30 sales continue surging in Europe in August
According to new data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), EV registration in the EU fell by 43.9% in August as the two biggest markets, Germany (-68.8%) and France (-33.1%), saw significant declines.
Despite this, Volvo was one of the bright spots, as overall vehicle sales climbed 36%. With 19,605 vehicles sold last month, Volvo topped Tesla and Fiat to become the fourteenth largest automaker in the EU, UK, and EFTA countries, according to Dataforce.
Volvo’s growth was largely thanks to the new EX30, which added 6,377 in sales to its total. The growth was enough to become Europe’s second best-selling EV, behind only Tesla’s Model Y.
The accomplishment is significant, given Volvo handed over the first EX30 models last December.
Volvo’s global sales rose 3% in August, with 52,944 cars sold. The EX30 was its fourth top-selling vehicle, with 8,346 units sold, behind the XC60 (14,723) and XC40/EX40, which had 10,668 combined sales.
Starting at around 36,000 euros ($40,000), the EX30 is one of Europe’s most affordable EVs. Although due to hit the market later than expected, the EX30 is scheduled to launch in the US next year, starting at $34,950.
The delay comes as the US announced a new 100% tariff on EVs imported from China, where the EX30 is currently built.
Volvo is fast-tracking production at its Ghent, Belgium plant to export EX30 models to the US, enabling it to bypass the additional tariffs.
Electrek’s Take
Will the Volvo EX30 have the same impact in the US? Starting at under $35,000, the small electric SUV will not only be one of the cheapest EVs in the US but also one of the most affordable vehicles (gas-powered or EV) on the market.
According to the latest data from Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the US was $47,870 in August.
Volvo is also launching its flagship electric seven-seater, the EX90 (check out our review of the luxury 7-seat kid-hauler).
Although Volvo’s sales in the US and Canada were down 0.2% through the first eight months, Volvo expects new EVs in key segments to quickly recharge sales.
Source: Automotive News
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Chicago-based NanoGraf will build a $175 million factory to produce 2,500 tons of silicon anode material to support up to 1.5 million EVs per year.
NanoGraf’s new factory
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded $60 million to the silicon anode battery company to help build its factory under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
NanoGraf’s project is one of 25 selected across 14 states to receive a portion of the over $3 billion in grants that the DOE announced today. These grants aim to strengthen domestic production of advanced batteries and battery materials in the US.
NanoGraf will use the grant, in addition to its own capital, to retrofit an existing factory in Flint, Michigan. It will be one of the world’s largest silicon anode facilities, significantly boosting US efforts to onshore the battery supply chain. The company says its advanced silicon anode battery material enables stronger, lighter, and longer-lasting lithium-ion batteries.
The Flint factory is NanoGraf’s third battery material factory and increases the company’s total manufacturing footprint to over 414,000 square feet. NanoGraf currently produces silicon anode material for the US military out of two Chicago-based manufacturing facilities, including a new R&D facility at 455 N Ashland Avenue and its headquarters at 400 N Noble Street.
The project will create approximately 200 construction jobs through a project labor agreement with the North American Building Trades Union. Up to 150 new permanent jobs will be created for operations, and around 80% are expected to come directly from the local community.
NanoGraf has signed a neutrality agreement with the United Steelworkers and says it’s committed to partnering with them should a majority of employees wish to unionize.
Electrek’s Take
In November 2022, Connor Hund, chief operating officer at NanoGraf, and I discussed a $10 million Department of Defense contract that the company had secured.
Hund told me that the company’s 18-month contract with the DoD allowed it to scale up domestic production in a careful and deliberate way so that it could lay the groundwork for the next stage of supplying domestically produced batteries to the EV market by 2024.
NanoGraf doesn’t say when it intends to open the Flint factory, but it’s certainly moving toward the next-stage goal that it set in a timely fashion. A huge domestically made lithium-ion battery factory is a welcome thing.
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On the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we interview Alpitronic CEO Mike Doucleff, we discuss a Tesla Semi update, GM going NACS, and more.
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