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Bitcoin’s fluctuating correlation with US equities is raising questions about its role as a global safe-haven asset during periods of financial stress.
Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US stock market when analyzing the short-term, seven-day trailing correlation, according to new research from blockchain data provider RedStone Oracles, shared exclusively with Cointelegraph.
However, RedStone said that the 30-day indicator signals a “variable correlation” between Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 index, with the correlation coefficient ranging from -0.2 to 0.4.
This fluctuating correlation suggests that Bitcoin “doesn’t consistently function as a true hedge for equities” due to its lack of a strong negative correlation below -0.3, which is needed for “reliable counter movement during market stress,” the report said.
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The research suggests that while Bitcoin may not be a dependable hedge against stock market declines, it offers value as a portfolio diversifier.
This fluctuating dynamic signals that Bitcoin often moves independently from other assets, potentially offering additional returns while other assets are struggling. Still, Bitcoin has yet to mirror the safe-haven dynamics of gold and government bonds, RedStone suggests.
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Bitcoin needs to “mature” before decoupling from stock market
While Bitcoin is poised to grow into a safe-haven asset in the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency still needs to “mature” as a global asset, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer at RedStone.
“Bitcoin still needs to mature before decoupling from stock markets,” Kazmierczak told Cointelegraph, adding:
“Increased institutional adoption will absolutely help — we’re already seeing this effect with corporate treasury investments reducing Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility and with BlackRock repetitively praising BTC as an asset in a portfolio.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin will see growing recognition as a portfolio diversifier, with an annualized return of over 230% for the past five years, which “significantly outperformed” both stocks and traditional safe-haven assets, Kazmierczak said, adding that “even a small 1–5% Bitcoin allocation can meaningfully enhance a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s declining volatility supports BTC’s growing maturity as a global financial asset. Bitcoin’s weekly volatility hit a 563-day low on April 30, a development that may signal more stable price action.
Bitcoin’s price volatility fell below the realized volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, signaling that investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term investment vehicle, Cointelegraph reported on May 13.
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Former Reform MP Rupert Lowe will not be charged after facing allegations of making threats, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.
Malcolm McHaffie, head of the Crown Prosecution Service’s Special Crime Division, said after considering a number of witness statements they have concluded that there is “insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction”.
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He added: “The Crown Prosecution Service’s function is not to decide whether a person is guilty of a criminal offence, but to make fair, independent, and objective assessments about whether it is appropriate to present charges for a criminal court to consider.
“Based on the careful consideration of this evidence, we have decided that our legal test for a criminal prosecution has not been met.”
Mr Lowe was suspended by Reform UK and reported to police following allegations that the MP threatened violence towards party chairman Zia Yusuf.
He always denied wrongdoing and claimed he was the victim of a witch hunt after speaking out against party leader Nigel Farage in the media.
In a lengthy statement following the CPS’s decision, the Great Yarmouth MP said he was referred to the police in “a sinister attempt to weaponise the criminal justice system against me – putting not just my political future, but my liberty at risk”.
He said this was “all because I dared to raise constructive criticisms of Nigel Farage, stood firm on deporting illegal migrants, and pushed for Reform to be run democratically – not as a vehicle to stroke one man’s ego”.
Reform responded “with a brutal smear campaign”, he said, claiming figures in the party briefed journalists he had dementia.
Nigel Farage. File pic: PA
Farage ‘a coward and a viper’
Mr Lowe said: “I am ashamed to have shared a parliamentary platform with them. Ashamed to have trusted them. Ashamed to have called them friends. Farage is no leader – he is a coward and a viper. I feel deeply embarrassed that I ever thought he was the man to lead.
“It’s my view that the police process was weaponised to silence a party colleague who raised reasonable concerns.
“If Farage were ever to control the vast power of the British state, I believe he would not hesitate to do to his adversaries what they have tried to do to me. With real power, I fear he would wield that immense responsibility to crush dissent – as he has done time and again over the years.
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Reform UK row explained
“Smearing my innocent staff in a pathetic attempt to attack me was disgusting, alongside briefings to journalists from senior Reform figures suggesting I had dementia – the lowest, vilest tactics I have seen in my 67 years. They are not fit to lead. They are not fit to be MPs.”
Mr Lowe went onto say that “for the good of our country, Nigel Farage must never be prime minister”.
In a hint at his political future he added: “When the time soon comes, we will work together to advance a political movement that is credible, professional, decent, democratic and honest. There will, very soon, be an alternative to the rotten leadership of Reform.
“You’ll be hearing a lot more from me, very soon.”
Sky News has contacted Reform UK for comment.
The row poses danger for a party that has its sights on entering government at the next election after a meteoric rise in the polls.
It broke out in March after Mr Lowe gave an interview to the Daily Mail in which he said it was “too early to know” if Mr Farage will become prime minister and warned Reform remains a “protest party led by the Messiah” under the Clacton MP.
Soon after, Reform UK announced it had referred him to police and suspended him, alleging he made “verbal threats” against chairman Zia Yousaf.
The party also claimed it had received complaints from two female employees about bullying in his constituency offices, which he also denied.
Mr Lowe was one of the five Reform MPs elected to parliament in July and now sits as an independent.
He previously sat as the chairman of Southampton Football Club before entering politics.
During Mr Farage’s online falling out with Elon Musk in January, in which the world’s richest man said Reform needed a new leader, Mr Lowe drew praise from Mr Musk.
Former US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler may not have been as hostile to crypto behind closed doors as he appeared to be in public, according to former US Representative Patrick McHenry.
In a May 13 appearance on the Crypto in America podcast, McHenry revealed that during private meetings with Gensler, the former regulator expressed a far more nuanced view of digital assets.
“Did he come across, or was he as anti-crypto in private as he did in public?” McHenry was asked. His response: “No… Nope.”
McHenry noted that Gensler “saw the value of digital assets” and acknowledged the potential of blockchain technology during his time at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Gerald Gallagher, general counsel at Sei Labs, also noted that Gensler played a role in developing the concept of the airdrop during his academic work, calling it a largely forgotten chapter in his background.
However, once Gensler became SEC chair, McHenry said, his stance shifted dramatically. “I had this weird, mistaken, stupid belief that he wouldn’t be that bad as SEC chair,” McHenry admitted. “And I mean, just the level of dismay.”
Related: SEC chair suggests ‘huge benefits’ in agency’s third crypto roundtable
Gensler’s crypto stance was “confusing”
McHenry said discussions with Gensler on crypto regulation were often confusing.
McHenry said conversations with Gensler about legal frameworks and content structures often started off as reasonable, but quickly became contradictory. He described how Gensler would initially agree with certain points, only to later reject the same facts he had acknowledged moments earlier.
According to McHenry, Gensler’s public opposition may have been shaped more by “Senate politics and confirmation politics than anything else.”
After departing the SEC on Jan. 20, Gensler returned to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to teach fintech and AI.
Under Gensler’s tenure, which started in 2021, the SEC took an aggressive regulatory stance toward crypto, bringing upward of 100 regulatory actions against industry companies.
The regulatory hostility caused Gensler and his team much scrutiny and backlash from industry leaders.
In December 2024, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced that the crypto exchange would sever ties with law firms employing former SEC officials involved in what he said was an effort to “unlawfully kill” the crypto industry.
In January 2025, Gemini said it wouldn’t hire any MIT graduates unless the university dropped Gensler from his teaching role.
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