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The political thinking behind Sunak’s five pledges


Sam Coates

Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

Rishi Sunak announced his five pledges in January 2023 in order to show a decisive change of approach from the chaos of the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss premierships.

The pledges, overseen by campaign chief Isaac Levido, were designed to show the Conservatives could take action.

Tory strategists worried that changing prime minister twice in a year harms public trust and would mean people no longer believe Tory promises.

They drew up a list of pledges they hoped could be delivered before the election, allowing them then to have more credibility when making further promises in the manifesto.

It was never likely to prove that easy. At the time they were announced – 4 January 2023 – they were seen as a challenge but not excessively ambitious. The last nine months have changed that.

Now Sunak’s struggles on every front are a defining part of his premiership, and today Sky News’s pledge tracker shines a light on just how hard getting this done remains.

Some of the problems, however, rest with the way the pledges were drawn up. Three of the pledges – on inflation, GDP growth and ensuring falling national debt – were on the economy.

In fact, the high inflation environment means that these three have pulled policy in different directions. For instance, more public spending could help boost GDP, but that would jeopardise the effort to bring down the debt.

Bringing down inflation has meant the Bank of England raising interest rates – yet this automatically hurts growth.

Another of the pledges, to ensure the NHS waiting lists are falling, did not anticipate the impact of the public sector strikes hitting the health service – the clearest sign that the government misread the situation nine months ago.

All of this despite the best efforts of Downing Street to give themselves every bit of wiggle room to ensure maximum flexibility. Look at the tricks they deployed: there was no deadline given for the pledges other than inflation, which would halve “this year”. Most are not expected to be met in 2023.

Sunak has refused to put a figure on what exactly halving inflation looks like, meaning he has a slightly wider margin for error just above 5% than many realised.

The pledge on getting national debt falling is not what it sounds – the amount of government borrowing will not go down in absolute terms, only as a proportion of GDP – something the Spectator regularly takes aim at.

And the government has promised to “stop small boats” but made clear that does not mean there will be zero small boats crossing the channel, without defining how low a number they are targeting.

Even with these fudges, however, the pledges are proving hard, which is why today’s tracker is vital.

“They’re not the limit of my ambitions for our country. They’re the foundation,” Sunak said on the day he launched them.

Could the fact he is struggling to be delivered delay the moment the public pay attention to his promises for the future?

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Millionaire former Tory donor defects to Reform

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Millionaire former Tory donor defects to Reform

Millionaire Tory donor Malcolm Offord has defected to Reform UK, saying he would be campaigning “tirelessly” to “remove this rotten SNP government”.

Nigel Farage announced the former Conservative life peer’s defection during a rally in the Scottish town of Falkirk, where regular anti-immigration protests have taken place outside the Cladhan Hotel – which is being used to house asylum seekers.

Mr Farage, Reform UK’s leader, said he was “delighted” to welcome Greenock-born Lord Offord to Reform, describing his defection as “a brave and historic act”.

He added: “He will take Reform UK Scotland to a new level.”

During a speech, Lord Offord, who previously donated nearly £150,000 to the Tories, said he would be quitting the Conservative Party and giving up his place in the House of Lords as he prepares to campaign for a seat in Holyrood in May.

The 61-year-old said he wanted to restore Scotland to a “prosperous, happy, healthy country”.

“Scotland needs Reform and Reform is coming to Scotland,” he told the rally.

Read more:
Nigel Farage dismisses school racism claims as ‘banter in a playground’
Farage allegations are deeply shocking – but will they deter voters?

“Today I can announce that I am resigning from the Conservative Party. Today I am joining Reform UK and today I announce my intention to stand for Reform in the Holyrood election in May next year.

“And that means that from today, for the next five months, day and night, I shall be campaigning with all of you tirelessly for two objectives.

“The first objective is to remove this rotten SNP government after 18 years, and the second is to present a positive vision for Scotland inside the UK, to restore Scotland to being a prosperous, proud, healthy and happy country.”

The latest defection comes as Mr Farage finds himself at the centre of allegations of racism dating back to his time in school.

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Claims made against Nigel Farage

Sky News reported on Saturday that a former schoolfriend of Mr Farage claimed he sang antisemitic songs to Jewish schoolmates – and had a “big issue with anyone called Patel”.

Jean-Pierre Lihou, 61, was initially friends with the Reform UK leader when he arrived at Dulwich College in the 1970s, at the time when Mr Farage is accused of saying antisemitic and other racist remarks by more than a dozen pupils.

Mr Farage has said he “never directly racially abused anybody” at Dulwich and said there is a “strong political element” to the allegations coming out 49 years later.

Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has called the ex-classmates “liars”.

A Reform UK spokesman accused Sky News of “scraping the barrel” and being “desperate to stop us winning the next election”.

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‘European SEC’ proposal sparks licensing concerns, institutional ambitions

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‘European SEC’ proposal sparks licensing concerns, institutional ambitions

The European Commission’s proposal to expand the powers of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is raising concerns about the centralization of the bloc’s licensing regime, despite signaling deeper institutional ambitions for its capital markets structure.

On Thursday, the Commission published a package proposing to “direct supervisory competences” for key pieces of market infrastructure, including crypto-asset service providers (CASPs), trading venues and central counterparties to ESMA, Cointelegraph reported.

Concerningly, the ESMA’s jurisdiction would extend to both the supervision and licensing of all European crypto and financial technology (fintech) firms, potentially leading to slower licensing regimes and hindering startup development, according to Faustine Fleuret, head of public affairs at decentralized lending protocol Morpho.

“I am even more concerned that the proposal makes ESMA responsible for both the authorisation and the supervision of CASPs, not only the supervision,” she told Cointelegraph.

The proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament and the Council, which are currently under negotiation. 

If adopted, ESMA’s role in overseeing EU capital markets would more closely resemble the centralized framework of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, a concept first proposed by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in 2023.

Related: Bank of America backs 1%–4% crypto allocation, opens door to Bitcoin ETFs

EU plan to centralize licensing under ESMA creates crypto and fintech slowdown concerns

The proposal to “centralize” this oversight under a single regulatory body seeks to address the differences in national supervisory practices and uneven licensing regimes, but risks slowing down overall crypto industry development, Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at Brickken asset tokenization platform, told Cointelegraph.

“Without adequate resources, this mandate may become unmanageable, leading to delays or overly cautious assessments that could disproportionately affect smaller or innovative firms.”

“Ultimately, the effectiveness of this reform will depend less on its legal form and more on its institutional execution,” including ESMA’s operational capacity, independence and cooperation “channels” with member states, she said.

Related: Grayscale Chainlink ETF draws $41M on debut, but not ‘blockbuster’

Global stock market value by country. Source: Visual Capitalist

The broader package aims to boost wealth creation for EU citizens by making the bloc’s capital markets more competitive with those of the US.

The US stock market is worth approximately $62 trillion, or 48% of the global equity market, while the EU stock market’s cumulative value sits around $11 trillion, representing 9% of the global share, according to data from Visual Capitalist.

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