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The political thinking behind Sunak’s five pledges


Sam Coates

Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

Rishi Sunak announced his five pledges in January 2023 in order to show a decisive change of approach from the chaos of the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss premierships.

The pledges, overseen by campaign chief Isaac Levido, were designed to show the Conservatives could take action.

Tory strategists worried that changing prime minister twice in a year harms public trust and would mean people no longer believe Tory promises.

They drew up a list of pledges they hoped could be delivered before the election, allowing them then to have more credibility when making further promises in the manifesto.

It was never likely to prove that easy. At the time they were announced – 4 January 2023 – they were seen as a challenge but not excessively ambitious. The last nine months have changed that.

Now Sunak’s struggles on every front are a defining part of his premiership, and today Sky News’s pledge tracker shines a light on just how hard getting this done remains.

Some of the problems, however, rest with the way the pledges were drawn up. Three of the pledges – on inflation, GDP growth and ensuring falling national debt – were on the economy.

In fact, the high inflation environment means that these three have pulled policy in different directions. For instance, more public spending could help boost GDP, but that would jeopardise the effort to bring down the debt.

Bringing down inflation has meant the Bank of England raising interest rates – yet this automatically hurts growth.

Another of the pledges, to ensure the NHS waiting lists are falling, did not anticipate the impact of the public sector strikes hitting the health service – the clearest sign that the government misread the situation nine months ago.

All of this despite the best efforts of Downing Street to give themselves every bit of wiggle room to ensure maximum flexibility. Look at the tricks they deployed: there was no deadline given for the pledges other than inflation, which would halve “this year”. Most are not expected to be met in 2023.

Sunak has refused to put a figure on what exactly halving inflation looks like, meaning he has a slightly wider margin for error just above 5% than many realised.

The pledge on getting national debt falling is not what it sounds – the amount of government borrowing will not go down in absolute terms, only as a proportion of GDP – something the Spectator regularly takes aim at.

And the government has promised to “stop small boats” but made clear that does not mean there will be zero small boats crossing the channel, without defining how low a number they are targeting.

Even with these fudges, however, the pledges are proving hard, which is why today’s tracker is vital.

“They’re not the limit of my ambitions for our country. They’re the foundation,” Sunak said on the day he launched them.

Could the fact he is struggling to be delivered delay the moment the public pay attention to his promises for the future?

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First Chinese CNH stablecoin debuts as global race heats up

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First Chinese CNH stablecoin debuts as global race heats up

First Chinese CNH stablecoin debuts as global race heats up

Governments around the world are exploring and launching stablecoins to remain competitive against dollar-pegged digital fiat tokens.

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Sir Ed Davey brands Elon Musk a criminal and calls for his arrest for ‘allowing online harm to children’

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Sir Ed Davey brands Elon Musk a criminal and calls for his arrest for 'allowing online harm to children'

Sir Ed Davey has branded Elon Musk a criminal and called for him to be prosecuted for “allowing online harm to children” on his social media platform X.

The Lib Dem leader told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips the billionaire owner of X, formerly Twitter, is “inciting violence” and his social media platform is actively failing to protect children.

Sir Ed, speaking from the Lib Dem conference in Bournemouth, said Mr Musk could be prosecuted under the Online Safety Act, under which social media companies have a legal duty to protect children from harmful content and their directors are liable for criminal prosecution for breaching it.

Elon Musk. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Elon Musk. Pic: Reuters

Asked if he is calling Mr Musk a criminal, Sir Ed did not miss a beat as he said: “Yes.

“Not just because of the awful things he’s done in inciting violence, and, for example, he says a civil war in our country is inevitable, that our democratically elected government should be overthrown.

“They were bad enough. But on his platform, they’re examples of adverse, pushing people on self-harm, on grooming, even selling videos showing paedophile acts, of child sex abuse acts and I think he should be held to account for them, him personally and his business.

“Ofcom now has the powers under the Online Safety Act.”

More on Elon Musk

He said if Mr Musk comes to the UK, he should be arrested.

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Sir Ed Davey enters conference with marching band

Mr Musk was accused of inciting violence during a march organised by Tommy Robinson in London last week.

He told the protest via video link: “This is a message to the reasonable centre, the people who ordinarily wouldn’t get involved in politics, who just want to live their lives. They don’t want that, they’re quiet, they just go about their business.

“My message is to them: if this continues, that violence is going to come to you, you will have no choice. You’re in a fundamental situation here.

“Whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you. You either fight back or you die, that’s the truth, I think.”

Sir Ed Davey said Elon Musk should be arrested
Image:
Sir Ed Davey said Elon Musk should be arrested

Sir Ed said it is “shocking” that Mr Musk removed some of X’s child safety teams when he took over Twitter in 2022 and accused him of just being “interested in his bank account”.

“I’m interested in the safety of our children, and it is quite wrong that his business puts on these adverts,” said the Lib Dem leader.

“It’s disgusting and I hope everybody will agree with me and the Liberal Democrats that we should take really strong action against him.”

After Mr Musk acquired Twitter, many of its child safety staff were laid off or resigned, and the platform’s trust and safety council was disbanded.

Child protection experts have accused Mr Musk of leading a “race to the bottom on safety”.

Elon Musk with Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Pic: AP
Image:
Elon Musk with Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Pic: AP

Ofcom, the UK’s independent media regulator, which has the power to prosecute directors of social media platforms under the Online Safety Act, has launched an investigation into X’s handling of child sexual abuse content.

This is not the first time Sir Ed has hit out at the world’s richest man, as he called for the US ambassador to be summoned in February “to ask why an incoming US official is suggesting the UK government should be overthrown”.

Mr Musk reacted by calling Sir Ed a “snivelling cretin”.

Sir Ed is expected to reiterate his call for Mr Musk’s arrest at his conference speech on Tuesday.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

He will accuse Mr Musk of being motivated by “his own ego, power and wealth, rather than the rights and freedoms of the British people”.

The Lib Dems will also table a parliamentary motion summoning Mr Musk to the House of Commons “to be reprimanded for his actions”.

Sky News has approached X and Elon Musk for comment, but as of publication has received no response.

X maintains it has “zero tolerance for child sexual abuse material” and claims tackling those who exploit children is a “top priority”.

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Sir Keir Starmer set to announce formal recognition of Palestine as a state

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Starmer to announce formal recognition of Palestine as a state

The UK will formally recognise Palestine as a state, it is understood.

Sir Keir Starmer is expected to make the announcement today after he said in July that the government would make the move unless Israel met certain conditions.

The prime minister had called on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to take substantive steps to end the “appalling situation in Gaza“, agree to a ceasefire, commit to a long-term sustainable peace, allow the UN to restart the supply of aid, and not annex the West Bank.

The Israeli foreign ministry furiously rejected his statement, with Mr Netanyahu claiming that “Starmer rewards Hamas‘s monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims”.

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Could recognition of Palestine change the West Bank?

Ilay David, brother of Hamas hostage Evyatar David, who was seen emaciated in a video last month, said giving recognition was “like saying to Hamas: ‘It is OK, you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields.’

“This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now.”

There has been no ceasefire, and the situation in Gaza has deteriorated, with a declaration of a famine in Gaza City and the expansion of Israeli military operations.

Israel has launched a major ground offensive to seize all of Gaza City and destroy Hamas in an operation which has prompted widespread condemnation, with UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper calling it “utterly reckless and appalling”.

More on Gaza

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What changed in UK’s Gaza policy?

Earlier this month, a UN commission of inquiry concluded that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. Israel said the claim was “distorted and false”.

The UK will join 147 of the 193 members of the UN who recognise Palestine ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York on Monday.

Other nations, including France, Australia and Canada, have said they plan to take the same step at the UN gathering as part of a broad international effort to put pressure on Israel.

And the Muslim Council of Britain welcomed the prime minister’s move, but urged that recognition must also come with “tangible action”.

During a joint news conference with the prime minister at Chequers on Thursday, Donald Trump said he disagreed with recognition, and US politicians have urged the UK and other allies to reverse their stance.

Sir Keir Starmer is expected to formally announce the move on Sunday. Pic: PA
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer is expected to formally announce the move on Sunday. Pic: PA

Sky News understands that Israel is considering options in response to the UK’s decision, but the strength of that reaction is still under consideration.

Read more:
Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be ‘courageous step’
What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
Gaza could be ‘real estate bonanza’, Israeli minister says

Family members of some of the 48 hostages still in captivity, after Hamas and other militant groups stormed into Israel on 7 October 2023, have written an open letter to Sir Keir, condemning the move.

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Israel ramps up attacks on Gaza City

“Hamas has already celebrated the UK’s decision as a victory and reneged on a ceasefire deal,” they said.

“We write to you with a simple plea – do not take this step until our loved ones are home and in our arms.”

Meanwhile shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel accused the prime minister of “capitulating” to his backbenchers to shore up his leadership.

“With the terrorist organisation Hamas still holding hostages in barbaric conditions and glorifying acts of terror, Starmer is sending a dangerous message, where violence and extremism are tolerated and rewarded,” she said.

The UK government is understood to be looking at further sanctions on Hamas, and has demanded the group release all hostages, agree to an immediate ceasefire, accept it will have no role in governing Gaza, and commit to disarmament.

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