Forecasts for Apple and Samsung shipment growth this year were sharply slashed by Counterpoint Research on Wednesday amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy.

The research outfit said it had revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% year-on-year from 4.2% previously, citing “renewed uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs.”

U.S. President Donald Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” on imports from countries around the world in April, but exempted smartphones and other electronics from those duties days later.

Still, with tariff uncertainty looming, Counterpoint Research slashed its growth forecast for the world’s two biggest smartphone players. Apple shipments are expected to grow 2.5% year-on-year in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 4%, according to Counterpoint Research. Samsung shipments are now anticipated to see no growth this year, compared with the 1.7% rise that was previously projected.

But it is not just tariffs behind these revised forecasts.

“All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia,” Counterpoint Research Associate Director Liz Lee said in a press release.

Apple’s downgraded shipment growth will be driven by the iPhone 16 series of devices, as well as by emerging market customers buying more expensive phones, Counterpoint said.

Shipments are not equivalent to sales and represent the number of devices that smartphones vendors send to retailers. They are one measure of the demand that smartphone vendors are expecting.

Apple in particular has come under scrutiny amid talk of U.S. tariffs on China, where the U.S. giant makes 90% of its iPhones. Apple has ramped up its shipments to the U.S. from India, where it has been steadily increasing production of its flagship product.

But this has also drawn the ire of Trump, who last month said that he doesn’t want Apple building iPhones in India, and that they should be manufacturing them in the U.S.

Counterpoint Research flagged Huawei as a bright spot in the sea of lowered forecasts, with the Chinese tech giant expected to notch a 11% year-on-year shipment growth in 2025.

“We are seeing an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei grab substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home,” Ethan Qi, associate director at Counterpoint Research, said in a press release.

Huawei has seen a rebound in smartphone sales in its home market of China since late 2023, where a breakthrough in semiconductors for its devices, helped revive its fortunes.

Tesla may be facing declining sales in the U.S. and Europe, but it reported a bright spot in Australia — where its electric vehicle sales rebounded to their highest level in nearly 12 months in May.

The American EV maker said Tuesday that its vehicle sales jumped to 3,897, primarily driven by record sales of its recently revamped Model Y compact sport utility vehicle. 

Australian sales of the Model Y soared 122.5% year over year, while sales of the company’s Model 3 dropped significantly. 

Total deliveries in Australia were up just 9.3% year over year but surged over 675% from April when the company sold only 500 EVs, according to data from the Australian Electric Vehicle Council. 

The EV Council is the exclusive source of Tesla and Polestar sales data in Australia after the brands exited the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) last year. 

Tesla’s April sales numbers for Australia had been the company’s worst performance of the year there. Despite the May rebound, the EV makers’ total sales in Australia remains down 48.2% year-to-date compared with the same period last year.

“Tesla’s strong sales growth in Australia this May is an encouraging sign, driven almost entirely by strong demand for the updated Model Y. But globally, Tesla is still facing headwinds,” Liz Lee, associate director at technology market research firm Counterpoint Research, told CNBC.

According to Counterpoint EV Sales Tracker, she added, Tesla’s sales were down 13% year on year in the first quarter. “Thus, while the latest Australian rebound is meaningful locally, it does not yet signal a broader global recovery.”

Tesla’s global sales have suffered in recent months in light of increased competition and reputational damage related to CEO Elon Musk’s political rhetoric and activities.

For example, prior to May, Tesla’s Australia sales struggled amid reports of vandalism and protests related to Musk’s work with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and support for far-right parties in Europe. 

Tesla reported on Tuesday that its sales in the U.S. were down 11% in May from last year. And European industry groups on Monday noted significantly lower sales for new Tesla vehicles in Spain, Portugal, Denmark and Sweden last month.

But there have been some bright spots. Tesla posted a surprise bounce back in Norway, where the Model Y helped it post 213% more vehicles in May from a year ago. Tesla also said it hit a record breaking 1,545 sales in Turkey last month. 

That data comes after Trump hosted a press conference last week, where he announced that Elon Musk would be officially departing from his role within the federal government and White House. 

Though Trump added that Musk will stay on as an advisor, in a research note following the announcement, Wedbush’s Dan Ives said he believed that Musk’s days in politics are essentially over after the brand damage suffered by Tesla. 

The Tesla bull said Musk’s pivot back to the EV maker “was the best possible news Tesla investors could have heard,” with the rollout of its robotaxi launch expected later this month. Musk has said that Tesla has already been testing driverless Model Ys. 

In April, China’s BYD outsold Tesla in Europe for the first time, according to JATO Dynamics. The automotive giant recently announced a slew of discounts, and other Chinese automakers are following suit. In March, it was revealed that Tesla fell behind BYD in total annual sales revenue.

And according to a report from JATO Dynamics, BYD sold more pure battery EVs in Europe than Tesla for the first time ever last month in what it called a “watershed moment.” 

In May, however, Tesla was able to regain a lead against BYD in vehicle sales in Australia, with 3,897 sales compared with BYD’s 3,225, based on available data.

Its worth noting that Tesla exclusively sells battery electric vehicles, while BYD also sells hybrid cars. Battery EVs run entirely on electricity, while hybrid vehicles combine an electric battery with an internal combustion engine. 

According to data that Australia’s FCAI sent to CNBC, sales of hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles — a type of hybrid that can be charged by being plugged into an external power source — rose by about 6% and 118%, respectively, year on year in May.

“Recent sales data indicate that consumers are increasingly turning to hybrid and plug-in hybrids as many Australians want to reduce their vehicle emissions,” said Tony Weber, chief executive of the FCAI.

He added that hybrids come without the range limitations associated with battery EVs, which is a particular concern in Australia.

Amid increasing global competition and threats from hybrid vehicles, Counterpoint’s Lee said, Tesla should continue to look to high-potential regions like India, Southeast Asia and parts of Latin America.

“These markets are ramping up EV infrastructure and incentives, and Tesla could benefit by moving early, especially if it localizes production and tailors offerings to local preferences,” she said.

Tesla announced on Tuesday that it is leasing a warehouse in Mumbai that is expected to be used for vehicle servicing as part of the company’s long-anticipated India expansion. 

Tesla was up about 0.5% in trading on Tuesday and is down about 15% year-to-date.

CrowdStrike shares fell 7% in extended trading on Tuesday after the security software maker issued a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast.

Here’s how the company did against LSEG consensus:

• Earnings per share: 73 cents, adjusted vs. 65 cents expected

• Revenue: $1.10 billion vs. $1.10 billion expected

Revenue increased by nearly 20% in the fiscal first quarter, which ended on April 30, according to a statement. The company registered a net loss of $110.2 million, or 44 cents per share, compared with net income of $42.8 million, or 17 cents per share, in the same quarter last year.

Costs rose in sales and marketing as well as in research and development and administration, partly because of a broad software outage last summer.

For the current quarter, CrowdStrike called for 82 cents to 84 cents in adjusted earnings per share on $1.14 billion to $1.15 million in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG were expecting 81 cents per share and $1.16 billion in revenue.

CrowdStrike bumped up its guidance for full-year earnings but maintained its expectation for revenue. The company now sees $3.44 to $3.56 in adjusted earnings per share, with $4.74 billion to $4.81 billion in revenue. The LSEG consensus was $3.43 per share and $4.77 billion in revenue. The earnings guidance provided in March was $3.33 to $3.45 in adjusted earnings per share.

Also on Tuesday, CrowdStrike said it had earmarked $1 billion for share buybacks.

“Today’s announced share repurchase reflects our confidence in CrowdStrike’s future and unwavering mission of stopping breaches,” CEO George Kurtz said in the statement.

As of Tuesday’s close, the stock was up 43% so far in 2025, while the S&P 500 index had gained less than 2%.

Executives will discuss the results on a conference call with analysts starting at 5 p.m. ET.

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