A boost in household spending power has been revealed as basic wage growth in July outstripped the rate of inflation for the first time in more than 18 months, according to official figures.
The latest employment data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that wages, excluding the effects of bonuses, were up 7.8% compared to the same month a year ago.
While that figure, a 22-year high, was static on the previous month, it was ahead of the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation for July which had eased sharply to 6.8%, reflecting a sharp fall in the energy price cap.
It means, on paper at least, that salaries are now outpacing the rate of price growth in the economy but it will not feel that way for millions of families whose budgets have hit breaking point during the energy-driven cost of living crisis to date.
Wider figures suggest growing weakness
The ONS report also showed that the UK’s unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%.
It said the increase was largely driven by people unemployed for up to 12 months.
There was a rise too in the economic inactivity rate – up by 0.1 percentage points to 21.1% between May and July.
This increase was dominated by students, the ONS said.
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It added that those inactive due to long-term sickness increased to another record high.
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August: Biggest rise in wages on record
ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, said of the data: “Earnings in cash terms continue to increase, at a record rate outside the pandemic-affected period.
“Coupled with lower inflation, this means people’s real pay is no longer falling.
“Unemployment continues to increase in the latest three months. Correspondingly, employment is down, driven by falls among men and the self-employed.”
He added: “Working days lost to strikes jumped in July, especially in education, with the health sector also still heavily affected. However, the overall number is still below what it was a few months ago.
“Job vacancies have fallen below the million mark for the first time since the summer of 2021, when the reopening of the economy created huge demand for workers. However, they still remain significantly above pre-COVID levels.”
ONS figures could influence rate rise
The ONS data is closely watched at the Bank of England as its policymakers prepare to decide whether a further interest rate hike is needed to cool demand in the economy and help bring the rate of inflation down.
It has consistently raised fears that high wage growth fuels inflation because, in theory, people have more money in their pockets to spend.
Financial markets currently expect a quarter-point interest rate hike to be announced next Thursday.
That would take the rate to 5.5%. It had stood at 0.1% before the Bank’s rate hike cycle began in December 2021 after inflation had started to shoot up due to the economy reopening following COVID restrictions.
BP has signalled an accelerated effort to bring down costs ahead, refusing to rule out further job losses as artificial intelligence (AI) technology helps drive efficiencies.
The company, which revealed in January that it was to axe almost 8,000 workers and contractors globally as part of a cost-cutting plan, said alongside its second quarter results that it was to review its portfolio of businesses and examine its cost base again.
BP is under pressure to grow profitability and investor value through a shareholder-driven refocus on oil and gas revenues.
Just 24 hours earlier, the company revealed progress through its largest oil and gas discovery, off Brazil’s east coast, this century.
BP said it was exploring the creation of production facilities at the site.
It has made nine other exploration discoveries this year.
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BP’s share price has lagged those of rivals for many years – a trend that investors have blamed on the now-abandoned shift to renewable energy that began under former boss Bernard Looney.
Image: BP boss Murray Auchincloss is facing shareholder pressure to grow profitability
His replacement, Murray Auchincloss, has reportedly come under shareholder pressure to slash costs further, with the Financial Times reporting on Monday that activist investor Elliott was leading that charge based on concerns over high contractor numbers.
Mr Auchincloss said on Tuesday that AI was playing a leading role in bolstering efficiency across the business.
In an interview with Sky’s US partner CNBC, he said: “We need to keep driving safely to be the very best in the sector we can be, and that’s why we’re focused on another review to try to drive us towards best in class… inside the sector, and technology plays a huge part in that.
“Just technology is moving so fast, we see tremendous opportunity in that space. So it’s good for all seasons to drive cost discipline and capital discipline into the business. And that’s what we’re focused on.”
When contacted by Sky News, a BP spokesperson suggested the company had no plans for further job losses this year and could not speculate beyond that ahead of the conclusions of the new cost review.
BP reported a second quarter underlying replacement cost profit of $2.4bn, down 14% on the same period last year but well ahead of analyst forecasts of $1.8bn. Much of the reduction was down to lower comparable oil and gas prices.
It moved to reward investors with a 4% dividend increase and maintained the pace of its share buyback programme at $750m for the quarter.
BP said it was making progress in driving shareholder value through both its operational return to oil and gas investment and cost reductions, which stood at $1.7bn over the six months.
Shares, up 3% over the year to date ahead of Tuesday’s open, were trading 2% higher in early dealing.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of the company’s figures: “Production increases, strong results from trading activities, favourable tax rates, and better volumes and margins downstream all played their part.
“It’s also upping the ante when it comes to exploration and development, culminating in this week’s announcement of an oil find at the offshore Brazilian prospect Bumerangue.
“Its drilling rig intersected a staggering 500m of hydrocarbons. Taking into account the acreage of the block, it’s given BP the confidence to declare the largest discovery in 25 years.”
British Land, the FTSE 100 commercial property company, has hired lawyers to scrutinise rescue deals for the high street retailers Poundland and River Island.
Sky News has learnt that Hogan Lovells, the City law firm, has been instructed by British Land to seek further information on restructuring plans that the two chains say are necessary for their survival.
British Land owns 20 Poundland stores, 13 of which would see rents compromised under its restructuring plan, while it is River Island’s landlord at 22 shops – seven of which would be affected.
Retail industry sources said that British Land had already struck deals to re-let some of the affected Poundland sites.
The company, which has a market capitalisation of ? and is one of Britain’s biggest commercial landlords, is understood to have abstained on the River Island restructuring plan vote.
The appointment of Hogan Lovells does not amount to a decision to formally challenge the restructurings, but that remains an option in both cases, according to industry sources.
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Hogan Lovells has been engaged on a string of previous challenges to retailers’ rescue deals on the basis that they unfairly compromised property-owners.
About 20,000 jobs would potentially be put at risk if Poundland and River Island were to collapse altogether.
Both face sanctions hearings in court this month which will determine whether their rescue deals can go ahead.
Even if the proposals are rubber-stamped, about 100 stores in aggregate across the two chains will be permanently closed.
The FCA determined that Mr Woodford and the fund “made unreasonable and inappropriate investment decisions” between July 2018 and June 2019.
The fund’s sale of liquid assets and acquisition of illiquid ones meant WEI was unable to meet rules in place at the time, whereby investors should have been able to access their funds within four days.
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“WIM and Mr Woodford did not react appropriately as the fund’s value declined, its liquidity worsened and more investors withdrew their money,” the FCA said.
“The FCA has concluded that Mr Woodford held a defective and unreasonably narrow understanding of his responsibilities.”
Steve Smart, its joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight, added: “Being a leader in financial services comes with responsibilities as well as profile. Mr Woodford simply doesn’t accept he had any role in managing the liquidity of the fund.
“The very minimum investors should expect is those managing their money make sensible decisions and take their senior role seriously.
“Neither Neil Woodford nor Woodford Investment Management did so, putting at risk the money people had entrusted them with.”
Both Mr Woodford and WIM have referred the case to the Upper Tribunal for appeal.
He was yet to comment.
Mr Woodford was once considered the star stock picker of his generation.
He launched his own investment business after building up a reputation for delivering stellar returns while at Invesco Perpetual.
At its height in 2017, the Woodford Equity Income Fund had a value of over £10bn, but by the time of its suspension in June 2019, this had sunk to as low as £3.7bn.
While a redress scheme enabled investors to get some cash back, around 300,000 people lost money through the fund’s collapse.