Demand for oil, gas and coal will peak by 2030, but that’s not fast enough to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees, says IEA chief
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), poses for a photograph during an interview with AFP at the Africa Climate Summit 2023 at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) in Nairobi on September 4, 2023.
Simon Maina | Afp | Getty Images
Demand for fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal will hit an all-time high before 2030, according to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.
That’s notable progress for the global fight against climate change, but it’s not fast enough to keep global warming within the internationally supported target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, Birol said.
“Despite recurring talk of peak oil and peak coal over the years, both fuels are hitting all-time highs, making it easier to push back against any assertions that they could soon be on the wane. But according to new projections from the International Energy Agency, this age of seemingly relentless growth is set to come to an end this decade, bringing with it significant implications for the global energy sector and the fight against climate change,” Birol wrote in an op-ed published in the Financial Times.
The IEA is a global intergovernmental energy agency founded in 1974 after the oil crisis in 1973, and which now includes in its energy charter clean energy and the global energy transition.
Birol’s assessment is based off of the IEA’s forthcoming report, the World Energy Outlook, which is due out in October and which will show “the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point,” Birol said.
The sea change in energy demand is due to, among other reasons, growth of clean energy technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles, and current global governmental policies, Birol said.
“Based only on today’s policy settings by governments worldwide — even without any new climate policies — demand for each of the three fossil fuels is set to hit a peak in the coming years. This is the first time that a peak in demand is visible for each fuel this decade — earlier than many people anticipated,” Birol said.
China is the largest consumer of coal, but Birol said China has seen a growth in its use of renewable and nuclear energy. Also, China’s slowing economy will decrease its use of coal, Birol said.
The surge in adoption of electric vehicles, including in China, contributes to the IEA’s forecast that oil demand will peak before 2030. The growth in adoption and use of electric buses and two and three-wheeled scooters is also contributing to the expected peak of oil, Birol said.
16 May 2023, Saxony, Lippendorf: The evening sun shines on the cooling towers of Lippendorf power plant behind a solar park. The power plant burns lignite from surrounding opencast mines to generate electricity and heat. The phase-out of lignite will end coal-fired power generation here in 2035 at the latest.
Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
The “Golden Age of Gas,” which the IEA dubbed in 2011, is set to fade because of the growth in renewables, Birol said. Also, the rise in the use of heat pumps for temperature regulation and Europe’s forced accelerated transition off of Russian pipelines of gas following the Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to the IEA’s view that gas demand will peak this decade, Birol said.
The drop-off in demand for fossil fuels will be more accelerated in advanced economies, and the climate benefits of that will be at least in part offset by the growth in demand for fossil fuels, especially gas, in emerging and developing economies, Birol said.
Also, the global trends away from fossil fuels will be interrupted by extreme weather events. Heatwaves drive demand for electricity up and droughts make hydropower less available, so in those instances, Birol predicted some spikes in demand.
Since 2015, global leaders have underscored the importance of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to stave off ever more extreme heatwaves, droughts and flooding.
Even as the peak for fossil fuels appear to be closer than previously expected, fossil fuel use is not declining fast enough to be sure the Earth stays within the target of 1.5 degree Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels.
“The projected declines in demand we see based on today’s policy settings are nowhere near steep enough to put the world on a path to limiting global warming to 1.5C. That will require significantly stronger and faster policy action by governments,” Birol said.
The Stripe logo on a smartphone with U.S. dollar banknotes in the background.
Budrul Chukrut | SOPA Images | LightRocket via Getty Images
Stripe cut 300 jobs, representing about 3.5% of its workforce, mostly in product, engineering and operations, CNBC has confirmed.
The payments company, valued at about $70 billion in the private markets, still expects to increase headcount by 10,000 by the end of the year, which would be a 17% increase, and is “not slowing down hiring,” according to a memo to staff from Chief People Office Rob McIntosh. Business Insider reported earlier on the cuts and the memo.
A Stripe spokesperson also confirmed to CNBC that a cartoon image of a duck with text that read, “US-Non-California Duck,” was accidentally attached as a PDF to emails sent to some of the employees who were laid off. Some of the emails mistakenly provided affected employees with an incorrect termination date, the spokesperson said.
McIntosh sent a follow-up email to staffers apologizing for the “notification error” and “any confusion it caused.”
“Corrected and full notifications have since been sent to all impacted Stripes,” he wrote.
In 2022, Stripe cut roughly 1,100 jobs, or 14% of its workers, downsizing alongside most of the tech industry, as soaring inflation and rising interest rates forced companies to focus on profits over growth. The Information reported that Stripe had a few dozen layoffs in its recruiting department in 2023.
Stripe’s valuation sank from a peak of $95 billion in 2021 to $50 billion in 2023, before reportedly rebounding to $70 billion last year as part of a secondary share sale. The company ranked third on last year’s CNBC Disruptor 50 list.
In October, Stripe agreed to pay $1.1 billion for crypto startup Bridge Network, whose technology is focused on making it easy for businesses to transact using digital currencies.
Brothers Patrick and John Collison, who founded Stripe in 2010, have intentionally steered clear of the public markets and have given no indication that an offering is on the near-term horizon. Total payment volume at the company surpassed $1 trillion in 2023.
WATCH: Early Bridge investor weighs in on $1.1 billion Stripe deal
Thinking about upgrading your EV? Rivian (RIVN) launched a new promo on Tuesday, offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1S or R1T. Here’s how you can snag some savings.
Rivian R1S and R1T upgrade deal offers up to $6,000
Rivian delivered over 51,500 vehicles last year as the EV maker gains momentum. Although it was only slightly higher than the ~50,100 delivered in 2023, Rivian is expected to see even more growth this year.
After shutting down its Normal, IL manufacturing plant last April and renegotiating supplier contracts, Rivian has seen “significant cost improvements,” according to CEO RJ Scaringe.
Rivian also began delivering its next-gen R1S and R1T models last year. The new Large and Max battery packs have redesigned modules and more efficient packaging, “making them easier to manufacture and service.” For example, Rivian’s new EVs use seven ECUs, down from 17 in the first-generation R1T and R1S.
With new plant upgrades, reworked supplier contracts, and more efficient vehicles, Rivian is now passing the savings on to customers.
Rivian introduced a new promo on Tuesday, offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1T or R1S. The bonus amount varies by trim:
- Tri with Max battery: $6,000 USD / CAD 8,600
- Dual with Max battery and Performance upgrade: $4,500 USD / CAD 6,500
- Dual with Max battery: $3,000 USD / CAD 4,300
The offer is for current R1T or R1S owners or lessees in the US and Canada. Rivian launched the new promo on January 21, and it runs through March 31, 2025.
After you purchase or lease a qualifying vehicle, Rivian will apply a discount toward the MSRP. You must take delivery by March 31, 2025. In the fine print, Rivian stated, “You must request a trade-in estimate to qualify for this offer, but trade-in of a vehicle is not required.”
Any other models are excluded from the offer. These include Dual Standard configurations, Dual with Large battery configurations, custom builds, demo vehicles, and pre-owned vehicles.
The new offer follows Rivian’s previous upgrade promo introduced last October, giving qualifying gas-powered vehicle owners or lessees up to $3,000.
Check out the Rivian R1 Shop to view eligible models. You can see eligible Rivian R1S here and R1T models here.
Electrek’s Take
Rivian’s R1S was already the tenth best-selling electric vehicle in the US last year, with nearly 27,000 models sold. With more driving range and power at a lower cost, the electric SUV could see even more demand in 2025.
Then again, with the arrival of new luxury electric SUVs, like the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volvo EX90, Rivian will face more competition in the US.
Rivian’s latest promo comes as the Company looks to carry the momentum from the end of 2024 into the new year. The EV maker is offering other deals, including 1.99% APR for 60 months on the R1 Dual with a Max Battery and Performance upgrade.
Even if you are not eligible for the promo, we can still help you find deals on Rivian’s electric SUV in your area. You can use our links below to view offers on the Rivian R1S and R1T near you today.
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