MPs fear unpicking the pensions triple lock would be an ‘election killer’ – no matter what they admit in private

Published

2 years ago

September 12, 2023

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The pensions triple lock is one of those policies that – despite only being introduced in 2010 – now feels so deep-rooted that no party can challenge it.

Turn the clock back to the coalition government: conscious of pensioner poverty and the state pension having fallen in real terms over many years, they came up with a guarantee.

Every year it would be either increased in line with prices (CPI inflation), to match average wages, or by 2.5% – whichever was the highest.

This was the post-financial crash era of rock-bottom interest rates and low inflation. Now all that has changed.

The state pension is likely to rise by 8.5% after April, in line with the latest earnings data – including bonuses.

This eclipses inflation which is running at around 7% and forecast to fall.

The average weekly state pension would rise from £203.85 to £221.20 a week.

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Conservative ministers have stuck to the policy in every election manifesto, not least because pensioners turn out to vote.

The British Election Study team in 2018 found that turnout by age ranged from 40% to 50% among the youngest voters and over 80% for the oldest – although it varies by constituency.

The former coalition pensions minister Steve Webb has pointed out that the increase next year will take half a million pensioners over the income tax threshold – giving the Treasury a windfall.

Rishi Sunak, asked on his trip to the G20 about this issue, did not commit to keeping it after the election; although media coverage of this saw Number 10 commit to the policy.

Is widely supported policy unaffordable?

The problem is that it is becoming increasingly unaffordable as working-age people will have to bear the cost of an ageing population’s benefits on their taxes.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that an additional £11bn a year is spent on the state pension due to the triple lock – compared with if it had been raised by either inflation or earnings.

By 2050, they reckon this could be £45bn.

Uncertainty around the triple lock makes it hard for governments to budget exactly how much it will cost in future.

In 2022, it was suspended for one year, for the first time, to take out earnings, because of the distorting effect of people coming back to work after the pandemic.

But despite speculation this might be the moment to reevaluate it, the lock was reinstated for this year with a 10.1% rise in line with inflation the previous September.

Charities for the elderly insist it must stay, saying pensioners on fixed incomes, who have paid taxes all their lives, rely on it to afford their food and energy bills.

And polling across different age groups consistently shows support for it.

MPs privately admit the need for change

Today the former Tory leader William Hague has waded in on the future of the triple lock.

He said it’s “ultimately unsustainable” and must be looked at again on a cross-party basis, with a future date set to drop the policy.

Describing it in The Times as “a very fierce sleeping dog that hates anyone to tread on its paws” he said younger people faced higher living costs than for decades.

He said one option was to follow the Conservatives’ example in the 1990s, when they gave 15 years’ notice that the women’s pension age would rise in stages from 2010 to 2020 – and Labour went along with it.

MPs across parties privately admit the pension system needs reform.

A senior Tory backbencher said ditching the lock before an election would be an “election killer” and it could only be done a long way into the future with a royal commission to look into it first.

Labour has left some wriggle room too, with the party saying it will set out its policies at the election, but plans to “hold the government’s feet to the fire” on keeping it in this parliament.

The risk in keeping it is that future chancellors bring forward increases in the pension age to save money.

It will reach 67 by 2028 and a decision on when to increase it to 68 has been put on hold.

The problem is there is never a good time for politicians to take the triple lock out of the in-tray.

Politics

Trump’s crypto dealings face scrutiny as House Republicans unveil digital asset bill

Published

59 mins ago

May 5, 2025

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Trump’s crypto dealings face scrutiny as House Republicans unveil digital asset bill

US President Donald Trump’s crypto businesses are drawing increased scrutiny on Capitol Hill and beginning to influence the progress of US digital asset legislation. As Republican lawmakers in the US House of Representatives unveiled their draft of a digital asset market structure bill on May 5, Democrats prepared for a united response to Donald Trump’s deepening connections with the industry.

Speaking to Cointelegraph on May 5, a Democratic staffer with knowledge of the matter said that House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Maxine Waters planned to lead some members of her party out of a Republican-led hearing discussing digital assets. The May 6 hearing, entitled “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets” and led by Committee Chair French Hill, could address draft legislation proposed by Republican lawmakers to establish a crypto market regulatory structure.

In a May 5 statement, Rep. Hill and three top Republicans unveiled the draft bill, which could clarify the treatment of digital assets by the US’s financial regulators: the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Hill and others echoed some of Trump’s talking points on crypto — e.g, making the US a “crypto capital of the world” — suggesting deference to the president’s previously announced policies.

The draft bill included a provision requiring the SEC and CFTC to issue joint rules defining digital commodities. According to the text, transactions involving digital commodities “shall be deemed not to be an offer or sale of an investment contract” as long as the purchaser did not have “an ownership interest or other interest in the revenues, profits, or assets.”

According to the Democratic staffer, rules required all members of the House Financial Services Committee to agree to move forward with the digital asset hearing, suggesting that Waters intended to block the Republican-controlled event and conduct a shadow hearing to explore Trump’s and his family’s ties to the crypto industry. At least nine Democrats have reportedly considered a similar move to oppose a proposed stablecoin bill in the Senate.

Calls for impeachment, criticism from both sides

Some members of Congress have already called for Trump’s impeachment after he offered the opportunity for some of his top memecoin holders to tour the White House and attend a private dinner. In addition to the memecoin, the president’s family has backed the firm World Liberty Financial, which recently launched its own stablecoin, and an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm used the USD1 stablecoin to settle a $2 billion investment in Binance.

Waters, according to the staffer, requested that Hill and Republicans amend any proposed legislation to explicitly prevent potential conflicts of interest in which Trump could personally enrich himself through crypto ventures. Cointelegraph reached out to Hill’s office but did not receive a response at the time of publication. The Arkansas lawmaker reportedly said in March that the Trump family’s involvement in the crypto industry makes related legislation “more complicated.”

Republican lawmakers in the United States currently have control of the House, Senate, and presidency. At least two senators supportive of Trump have criticized his memecoin dinner, hinting that the president was selling access to his office. It’s unclear at the time of publication who among the memecoin holders could attend the May 22 dinner in person.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Politics

VanEck files for BNB ETF, first in US

Published

3 hours ago

May 5, 2025

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VanEck files for BNB ETF, first in US

Asset manager VanEck has asked US regulators for permission to list an exchange-traded fund (ETF) holding BNB, the native token of Binance’s BNB Chain, regulatory filings show.

The ETF is designed to accumulate spot BNB (BNB) tokens and “may, from time to time, stake a portion of the [fund’s] assets through one or more trusted staking providers,” according to the ETF’s S-1 prospectus. The filing marks the first time an asset manager has filed for a BNB ETF in the United States.

The BNB token has a market capitalization of roughly $84 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap. As of May 5, BNB stakers earn a yield of approximately 2.5%, according to data from Stakingrewards.com.

Binance’s BNB Chain is among the most popular smart contract networks, with a total value locked (TVL) of nearly $6 billion, according to data from DefiLlama.

Bitcoin’s “spillover” effect?

The filing comes days after Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao reportedly said he expects the popularity of Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs to eventually “spill over” into altcoins.

“This cycle so far has been the ETFs. And it’s almost all Bitcoin. Ether hasn’t had as much success but Bitcoin success will spill over to the others eventually,” CZ reportedly said during the Token2049 conference in Dubai.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted net inflows of more than $40 billion since launching in January of 2024, according to data from Farside Investors.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Investments, Markets, United States, Ethereum ETF, Bitcoin ETF, ETF — *Cumulative inflows into spot BTC ETFs. Source:* *Farside Investors*

VanEck’s filing is the newest in a flurry of filings seeking to list ETFs holding altcoins.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged dozens of cryptocurrency ETF proposals since US President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20.

They include plans for ETFs holding native layer-1 tokens such as Solana (SOL) as well as memecoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE).

VanEck has filed to list other cryptocurrency ETFs over the past few months, including funds holding Solana and Avalanche (AVAX).

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Politics

What do crypto users want to happen to Alex Mashinsky?

Published

3 hours ago

May 5, 2025

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What do crypto users want to happen to Alex Mashinsky?

Crypto users are weighing in as Alex Mashinsky, the former CEO of Celsius Network, prepares to stand before a judge on May 8 to face sentencing for commodities fraud and a fraudulent scheme to manipulate the price of the platform’s token.

In a May 2 filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY), prosecutors released several impact statements from individuals affected by the collapse of Celsius filed after the initial deadline. Though at least one suggested clemency for the former CEO, many told the court about the financial and personal losses caused by the crypto firm filing for bankruptcy, and hinted that Mashinsky should be held accountable for misrepresenting the company.

“Many of the people who participated in this fraud, benefited from this fraud, and potentially orchestrated this fraud will get away with zero legal consequences,” said Daniel Frishberg of Hillsborough County, Florida, in an April 24 statement. “Please do not allow Mr. Mashinsky to be one of those people (such as with probation/house arrest, as some people supporting him have requested). Please throw the book at him.”

Law, Court, Crimes, Celsius — *A victim impact statement from a Celsius user filed with the SDNY on May 2. Source: PACER*

Prosecutors have requested that Mashinsky serve up to 20 years in prison for his role in Celsius’ fraud, while the former CEO’s legal team asked for a year and one day. The judge will consider guidelines and victim statements at sentencing on May 8.

Calls for leniency and harsh prison time

Not everyone who sent in a letter to the prosecutors seemed to be in favor of Mashinsky being sent away for decades, as was former FTX CEO Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried. SBF stood before a different federal judge in the same district in March 2024 and was handed a 25-year sentence, which he is currently serving in a California prison.

“While Celsius [sic] collapse caused significant losses, particularly for Bitcoin holders, shareholders, and borrowers, despite his mistakes, Mr. Mashinsky was, at times, the more conservative voice in an industry overflowing with unchecked greed,” said Artur Abreu in a victim impact statement.

“The twenty-year sentence suggested by the US DOJ is fair in my opinion, as Mashinsky caused pain and suffering for many crypto investors across the globe – even resulting in suicide for some of those involved,” said Web3 Deep Dive podcast host and former Cointelegraph reporter Rachel Wolfson, who lost access to Bitcoin worth about $5,000 at the time. “Harsh punishment for bad actors in the crypto industry has become necessary to ensure that the space legitimizes over time.”

Mashinsky’s sentencing will be one of the first in significant crypto cases in the district since Jay Clayton became interim US Attorney for SDNY. A Trump appointee, Clayton was previously the chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission and a crypto proponent on many issues.

Critics have suggested that Clayton would take a softer approach to crypto enforcement, given his ties to Wall Street firms and the industry. However, he also released a statement in April regarding a $12-million crypto case, suggesting that he supported accountability for fraudulent actions. His response to Mashinsky’s sentencing and other future cases could be a bellwether for the US Attorney’s approach to crypto.