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  • Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff WriterSep 13, 2023, 07:00 AM ET

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    • Covers the SEC.
    • Joined ESPN in 2012.
    • Graduate of Auburn University.

GROWING UP, JOE Milton couldn’t help himself when he saw smoke on the horizon. It didn’t matter how many times his mom warned him about the tractor blades that could chew him up, or how the fumes could aggravate his asthma and cause him to hyperventilate. If the sugar cane fields were being cut and burned, that meant rabbits were running for cover, and that meant game on for Milton.

Chasing rabbits is a Pahokee, Florida, tradition in the fall when farmers clear their land for next year’s harvest. Former NFL cornerback Janoris Jenkins so identified with his hometown and its unique pastime that he preferred to be called Jackrabbit.

Long-limbed and quick, Milton was good at chasing rabbits. And with his mom’s voice in his ear, he really did try to be safe. But when you’re young and full of adrenaline and sprinting after something that doesn’t want to be caught, how careful can you be? If it was a competition, he was going to find a way to win.

Milton recalled a particularly stubborn rabbit who raced toward a canal once. Usually they’d hide in the tall grass near the edge of the water, he said, but this rabbit was acting as if it was going to jump across. Never mind the danger that might be lurking in the water below. “You know what?” Milton decided. “I’m going to follow through with it.”

The rabbit did leap, and a split second later, an alligator rose up and snatched it out of the air with its teeth.

Milton slammed on the brakes. “I’m good,” he thought as he watched the gator devour its dinner.

It was the last time he ran toward the smoke. Ever since, he’s been chasing something more elusive than a scared little rabbit: his potential as one of the most irresistible quarterback prospects the state has produced.

Big, strong and a threat to run the football, he checks every box. But it’s his right arm — the one that gator could have easily mangled — that has become the stuff of legend. College coaches came from all over the country to see the towering passes it sent soaring down the sideline and the way it looked so effortless with just a flick of the wrist.

Teammates laugh at the absurdity of it all, the stories that sound too impossible to be true, like the time Milton threw a baseball 95 miles per hour without warming up. For the longest time, Milton was oblivious to his gift. But if he had to pinpoint the moment he knew he was different, it was his senior year at Olympia High School in Orlando when, on a lark, he got down on a knee and tested how far he could throw a football. It traveled 70 yards.

Only now, after five long years in college, is that talent coming into focus. And not a moment too soon as he takes center stage as the starting quarterback at No. 11 for Tennessee — his second school after transferring from Michigan, and his last chance. On Saturday, on the road at Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), all eyes will be on Milton. How his story ends is anyone’s guess. Bust or first-round pick? Underachiever or national champion?

He’s traveled thousands of miles to get here, from Pahokee to Ann Arbor to Knoxville and points in between. All he has to do now is make the leap from can’t-miss prospect to star — and not get pulled down into the danger below.

“MY NAME’S JOE. I play quarterback at Tennessee.”

Truth be told, Milton didn’t need to introduce himself to the adolescent campers at the Manning Passing Academy in Thibodaux, Louisiana. None of the 40 or so college counselors on hand this past June — not Heisman Trophy contenders Drake Maye, Michael Penix or Jayden Daniels — could match Milton’s 6-foot-5, 240-pound frame. Not to pick on Garrett Greene, who was Academic All-Big 12 Conference at West Virginia last season, but he looked like a child walking beside Milton, barely coming up to his chin.

Milton is larger than life in other ways, too. These kids live on social media, so chances are they’ve seen his jaw-dropping throws like this one or this one. And who among us hasn’t replayed the clip of him throwing an orange 100-plus yards? It has 1.4 million hits and counting on X.

The buzz at the Manning academy on the Nicholls State campus surrounded Milton, and the question seemingly on everyone’s mind: How far would he throw during the passing competition?

During a 15-minute recess, after Milton broke the huddle by doing a standing backflip with the ease of someone stepping over a puddle, one camper asked Milton whether he would set a throwing record, although no formal records are kept. Milton shrugged and laughed if off. But then Greene fanned the flames, telling campers, “He’s going to throw it 105 yards!” Greene might as well have told them Milton would throw it over the moon, their eyes went so wide in disbelief.

Nearby, Peyton Manning, who has seen it all in his Hall of Fame career, also wondered about Milton’s limits — whether he had any. Peyton’s father, Archie, has been putting on the passing academy for 27 years, and Peyton Manning couldn’t recall a time when there was more anticipation for a quarterback. “We usually start to throw on the 30-yard line going toward the other end zone,” he said. “You figure you got 80 yards and that’s safe where you’re not going to run a [receiver] into the goalpost. I’m not sure the 30 is safe with Joe.”

There was a twinkle in Manning’s eye, but he wasn’t being hyperbolic. A Tennessee alumnus, he’s witnessed firsthand what Milton is capable of. While having that big arm is great, Manning said, “I know how much he studies. He’s an accurate quarterback, and he’s a great kid.

“I’m proud of him the way he came in last year after [Hendon Hooker‘s] injury and what a great teammate he was pulling for Hendon,” Manning said. “And I think that bowl win against Clemson can just do wonders for a new quarterback’s confidence. Joe’s a senior, but that was a new role for him and he just played so well. We had a good visit last night talking about the work they’re doing this offseason. I’m excited for him.”

Milton said that one-on-one conversation with Manning was surreal. And it wasn’t small talk, either. Milton said Manning hit him with a flurry of questions: How can you be in the present and not worry about last year? How are you leading the guys? How are you taking on your role every day? Milton assured him he was handling his business.

“Life is good,” he said. “I wake up, I’m happy. I’m not in a headspace where I’m stressing about anything. I’m just having fun.”

For one sweltering day this summer, Milton seemed unburdened — by the past, by expectations, by the pressure of having one season of eligibility left to prove he can be what he’s always dreamed of. The eldest of seven children, he fell back into the joy of tossing the ball around the backyard. It was a lesson in patience, he said, and a not-so-subtle reminder of those early days in Pahokee when anything was possible.

So he didn’t flinch when the first camper to cycle through his station was wearing a navy blue bucket hat with an unmistakable yellow block M across the front. He didn’t seem to notice the irony at all. A few moments later, a camper in a bright orange Tennessee shirt sailed a pass way off target, and Milton stepped in and encouraged him, “C’mon, man, I already know you can throw it.” He said to pay attention to his shoulder placement.

“You have no room for error,” he said, speaking from experience.

THE PLAYCALL WAS perfect. Milton, in his second game starting for Tennessee in 2021, took the snap on second-and-long and dropped back as if to pass when Pitt’s defense bit hard. The weakside linebacker rushed upfield while the defensive tackle in front of him ran a stunt, vacating the A-gap and creating a runway for Milton to take off. Defensive back Javon McIntyre then learned a lesson about angles and Joe Milton: Better safe than sorry. McIntyre, who is 45 pounds lighter than Milton, tried to cut him off before the first-down marker and didn’t even lay a hand on him. A footrace, Milton crossed midfield and sprinted all the way inside the 5-yard line before he was tripped up.

Milton lay on the ground and celebrated by crossing his arms on his chest. Neyland Stadium erupted. Was this the moment they were waiting for? Was this the Cam Newton clone they were promised when he transferred from Michigan in the spring? The arm, the legs, the whole package. “He’s the most athletic, biggest human being I’ve ever seen,” said Milton’s personal QB coach Donovan Dooley. “He looks like an action figure.”

“Soon as I stood up,” Milton said, “it felt like my ankle was loose.”

He played through the discomfort for one more series, but he knew what an MRI would later confirm: multiple ligament tears that would derail his season. And how’s this for irony? The defender who tackled him, Brandon Hill, was a friend Milton knew from Florida.

“I had a life flash,” Milton said. Maybe the universe was trying to tell him something. “My confidence level, I thought I wasn’t good enough to play football.”

It wasn’t just the one play and the injury that had him rattled. It was the whole damned thing: two years riding the bench at Michigan before finally getting his shot, only to then lose the starting job to Cade McNamara, prompting his decision to transfer to Tennessee. What went unreported at the time was that Milton broke his thumb in the second game of the 2020 season against Michigan State — a thought that haunted him going into Week 2 against Pitt a year later.

At Michigan, Milton said he thought he was better than he really was. Sure, he had that big arm — capable of firing passes so hard they’d rip apart the seams of receivers’ gloves — but he was complacent and immature. Dooley put it another way: Milton was playing quarterback rather than living the position by putting in extra hours studying the film and understanding the bigger picture. “He wishes he could have handled some things differently,” Dooley said.

Tennessee was supposed to offer a fresh start, but Milton found more of the same disappointment with the injury. Hooker would step in as his replacement and quickly establish himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country.

But rather than transfer a second time, Milton made the decision to stay and support the team as best he could. He and Hooker became inseparable. No one cheered on Hooker’s Heisman Trophy run last year more than Milton.

Milton said he looked in the mirror after the injury and told himself, “God ain’t make you this big for no reason. God didn’t make you this smart for no reason.”

He asked God for one more opportunity, and asked himself, “What are you going to do when you get it?”

play

3:02

It’s time for Milton III to put talent on full display

SEC Nation’s Jordan Rodgers and Tim Tebow break down No. 12 Tennessee’s Joe Milton III’s talent and explain why he’s gifted in many different ways.

IT WAS A process, letting go of the residual weight of those injuries and the disappointment of not realizing his potential sooner. But Milton has made peace with it.

Now, he said, he’s changed.

Now, he said, “I want more.”

“As you get older, you see how life works and you see how things can come and go,” he explained. “So I treat it differently. It’s more meaning now, not because it’s my last year but because guys want it more. I see it in their eyes, they’re dedicated. So why not give it my all?”

Don’t just take his word for it. Dooley traveled to Knoxville this summer for a few days of one-on-one work with Milton. It was early in the morning when he arrived at Tennessee’s indoor facility to set up, and Milton was already there. And not just that, he had eight or nine receivers with him. And not just that, he had two other quarterbacks as well.

When Dooley talks about living the position of quarterback, that’s what he means. Not being threatened by competition and leading the entire team. Getting to know the receivers inside and out so they’re in sync when the pressure is on and 90,000 fans are screaming so loud they can’t communicate verbally.

“It’s a total 180,” Dooley said. “Joe’s a different Joe. He’s a man now.”

Again, don’t take just one person’s word for it.

Ask defensive lineman Omari Thomas.

“I’ve seen Joe just be able to be himself,” he said. “I feel like that’s what helps Joe thrive in different situations is him being able to be himself, being able to be happy, be uplifting, and just be the person he is.”

Ask tight end Jacob Warren.

“I’ve noticed a shift in just how he carries himself and how he handles interactions with everybody — people around the building, whether it’s the janitor or people down in our dining hall,” he said. “He knows he’s Joe Milton. Everyone knows he’s Joe Milton.”

Coach Josh Heupel said it’s important to remember college athletes are still young and learning. When Hooker suffered a season-ending knee injury last year, Milton took over and was 2-0 as the starter.

“For Joe and his journey — the ups and downs that he’s had from growing up, to Michigan, to Tennessee — it’s all a product of who he is today and has helped make him as strong as he is,” he said.

Hooker showed what’s possible in Heupel’s up-tempo offense, scoring 32 touchdowns and winning SEC Offensive Player of the Year last season. A more mature, well-rounded Joe Milton has people buzzing about beating Alabama two years in a row and making a sneaky run for the Heisman Trophy.

Thomas is no longer surprised by anything Milton does, especially with a football in his hands. Thomas will be in practice and marvel at the speed and accuracy of Milton’s passes.

“He might be joking around and somebody will throw him a ball from the 50 and he’ll hit the goal post,” Thomas said. “I just don’t feel like it’s normal.”

It’s not.

Missouri cornerback Kris Abrams saw it firsthand last season when Milton came on in relief of Hooker and was a perfect 3-for-3. “He threw a bomb!” Abrams said, dumbfounded months later by Milton’s 58-yard pass in the fourth quarter. The only comparison he could come up with for Miltons’ arm was former LSU great JaMarcus Russell. But, Abrams added, “He can run it, too.”

Heupel had another comp: Brett Favre.

It’s not just that Milton can fit the ball into tight windows, Warren said, it’s that he can pick any window on the field he wants — whether it’s smack-dab between two defenders or a spot 70-plus yards downfield.

No one else in the country can make those throws, Warren said.

“No doubt that guy can.”

play

1:16

Joe Milton shows off arm strength at Manning Passing Academy

Tennessee QB Joe Milton puts his electric arm on display at the Manning Passing Academy.

WHEN THE MOMENT finally arrived, Milton dressed for the occasion. He put on a fresh Manning Passing Academy cap for the night’s throwing competition, turning it backward, and black socks with “I’m Expensive” written in white lettering. And, despite the sun setting an hour earlier, he wore sunglasses for good measure.

“He’s got a hose!” Cooper Manning, the emcee, warned the crowd before one of Milton’s early throws. He told the volunteers to clear out of the bushes behind the end zone just in case they got pegged.

Cooper laughed into the microphone after one of Milton’s 50-yard-plus bombs. He said he’d never seen anything like it.

“Can you get arrested for having a big arm?” he asked incredulously.

Then Milton really went for it, taking a breezy crow hop and letting it fly on a post route.

“Holy cow!” Cooper said before the towering pass had even reached its zenith.

It traveled at least 80 yards to the back-left corner of the end zone. Texas quarterback coach Brian Thiebaud said it was “the craziest throw I’ve ever seen.”

Finally came the main event: the Long Shot challenge. Three golf carts were set up on the field, dressed in oversized bull’s-eye targets. One cart ran the equivalent of a short drag route. Another cart ran an intermediate post. And the final cart ran a go-route straight down the sideline, punching the gas.

The college quarterbacks went in alphabetical order. Some hit the first target, some hit the second. But none hit the third target until Milton stepped up and made it look easy.

His final pass came down hard on the golf cart in the end zone, and Guidry Stadium erupted in applause.

Milton did a backflip as an exclamation point.

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers was waiting his turn and couldn’t believe what he’d seen. Milton, he said, has the “strongest arm in the world.”

“I saw Anthony Richardson last year,” Rogers said. “I think it’s flying over his ball.”

Jim Nagy, a former scout who runs the Senior Bowl, flashed back to Richardson, too. The former Florida quarterback punctuated his Long Shot performance with a backflip as well. Viewed as an unproven passer with untapped potential, Richardson wound up getting selected with the No. 4 overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts.

Sound familiar? The knock on Milton has always been that he struggles with the short-to-intermediate passes. Sometimes he throws it too hard, sailing it over or through his receivers’ hands. Dooley said against Clemson, “He was proving to himself that he could get this s— done.” But the questions about Milton’s touch persist. “We’ve done every goddamn drill I can think of,” Dooley said. “Right now, either we can do it or we can’t. It’s as simple as that.”

“In terms of any quarterback in his class, he’s maybe the guy I’m most excited to see what it looks like,” Nagy said. “Because the physical tools are undeniable. I mean, the arm strength and the athleticism.”

Milton might not be in the same conversation as top-five prospects like Caleb Williams or Maye right now, but don’t be surprised if he’s a quick riser. While accuracy and processing ability are the two most important traits NFL general managers and scouts are looking for, Nagy said, “It’s hard not to become enamored with arm strength when you’re an evaluator.”

Richardson isn’t the only example. Josh Allen completed a pedestrian 56.2% of passes and 21 interceptions in 27 games at Wyoming, and he’s blossomed into a star for the Buffalo Bills.

But we’re probably getting ahead of ourselves. Milton has to get through this season first. Up next is a game on the road against the Florida Gators on Saturday.

Rest assured that Milton is confident he and Tennessee will come out on top. As he told reporters at the Manning Passing Academy, “I don’t lose in Florida.”

But that wasn’t the only interesting thing he said before leaving Thibodaux. Before he stepped into the main interview room, he told ESPN the exact answer to the question so many had been asking: What’s the farthest he’s thrown a football?

He’d given only ballparks before — 80-plus, 90-something, far enough. But he went into specifics this time.

“Ninety-seven yards,” he said.

He wasn’t joking.

If he made 80-plus look easy, imagine if he reared back and really put his whole body into it?

With Joe Milton, anything feels possible.

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The All-Stars who are halfway to history in 2025

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July 15, 2025

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The All-Stars who are halfway to history in 2025

Jul 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.

The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.

Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?

As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.

Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.

How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman

Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.

How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon

Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.

How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith

Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.

How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan

Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.

How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.

How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll

Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.

How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam

Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.

How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.

How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize

Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.

How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore

Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.

How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan

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Is it the coach or the program? Ranking CFB coaches while factoring in expectations

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July 15, 2025

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Is it the coach or the program? Ranking CFB coaches while factoring in expectations

  • Bill ConnellyJul 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.

Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).

The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?

The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.

Performance versus expectation

Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.

Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?

I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)

By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.

As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.

(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)

Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):

1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline

2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8

3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5

4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7

5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3

6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0

7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5

8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5

9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6

10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5

11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5

12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2

13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8

14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7

15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7

If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.

Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.

The best coaches of the past 20 years

If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:

I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.

Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?

The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.

From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.

Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.

Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.

The best coaches of 2025

Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.

Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)

Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.

All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.

Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.

Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.

On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).

Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.

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It’s MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways

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July 15, 2025

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It's MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways

Jul 14, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!

Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.

While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?

We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.

MLB Home Run Derby field

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)

Live updates

Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?

Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.

Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.

Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.

His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.

Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.

Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.

Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?

Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.

Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.

Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.

Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.

Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.

Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?

Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.

Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.

What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?

Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.

Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!

Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.

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