Earth is exceeding its “safe operating space for humanity” in six of nine key measurements of its health, and two of the remaining three are heading in the wrong direction, a new study has said.
The planet’s climate, biodiversity, land, freshwater, nutrient pollution and “novel” chemicals (human-made compounds like microplastics and nuclear waste) are all off-kilter, according to a group of international scientists.
Only the acidity of the oceans, the health of the air and the ozone layer are within the boundaries considered safe, and both ocean and air pollution are heading in the wrong direction, the study in the journal Science Advances found.
“We are in very bad shape,” said study co-author Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
“We show in this analysis that the planet is losing resilience and the patient is sick.”
In 2009, Professor Rockstrom and other researchers created nine different broad boundary areas and used scientific measurements to judge Earth’s overall health.
The paper revealed on Wednesday was an update from 2015 and it added a sixth factor to the unsafe category.
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Water went from “barely safe” to the “out-of-bounds” category because of worsening river run-off, better measurements and understanding of the problem, Professor Rockstrom said.
These boundaries “determine the fate of the planet”, he said, adding that nine factors have been “scientifically well established” by numerous outside studies.
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“If Earth can manage these nine factors, Earth could be relatively safe. But it’s not,” he said.
The nine factors are intermingled. When the team used computer simulations, they found that making one factor worse, like the climate or biodiversity, made other Earth environmental issues degrade, while fixing one helped others.
The simulations showed “that one of the most powerful means that humanity has at its disposal to combat climate change” is cleaning up its land and saving forests, the study said.
Returning forests to late 20th-century levels would provide substantial natural sinks to store carbon dioxide instead of the air, where it traps heat, the study said.
Biodiversity – the amount and different types of species of life – is in some of the most worrying shape and it does not get as much attention as other issues, like climate change, according to Professor Rockstrom.
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4:05
India’s destructive climate crisis
“Biodiversity is fundamental to keeping the carbon cycle and the water cycle intact,” he said. “The biggest headache we have today is the climate crisis and biodiversity crisis.”
Some biodiversity scientists, such as Duke University’s Stuart Pimm, have long disputed Professor Rockstrom’s methods and measurements, saying it makes the results not worth much.
But Carnegie Mellon University environmental engineering professor Granger Morgan, who wasn’t part of the study, said, “I’ve often said if we don’t quickly cut back on how we are stressing the Earth, we’re toast. This paper says it’s more likely that we’re burnt toast.”
A Ukrainian farmer-turned-soldier in the Donbas has a message for Donald Trump as the US president attempts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.
Anatolii, 59, said: “If someone took a piece of his territory, what would he say to that? The same goes for us.”
He has been fighting ever since, but will have the option to quit next year once he turns 60.
Image: Anatolii and a colleague
Unable to wear body armour anymore because of its weight, Anatolii now operates further back from the frontline in a small workshop on the outskirts of the city of Kramatorsk where he helps to fix and improve the performance of drones – a crucial weapon on the battlefield.
“I want this war to finally end,” he said.“I want to go home, to my family, to my land.”
But not at any price.
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He and other soldiers in 107 Brigade of Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Force view Mr Trump’s efforts to negotiate a peace agreement with suspicion.
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1:25
Peace deal: Russia ‘in no mood to compromise’.
An initial proposal envisaged the Ukrainian government giving up Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions that make up the Donbas, to Russia.
This includes large swathes of land that are still under Ukraine’s control, and that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives fighting to defend.
“I feel negative about it,” Anatolii said, referring to the proposal.
“So many people already fell for this land … How can we give away our land? It would be like someone comes to my house and says: ‘Give me a piece of your home.'”
However, he added: “I understand, we have nothing to take it back with. Maybe through some political means…
“I do not want more people to fall, more people to die. I want politicians to somehow come to terms.”
A short drive away from the workshop is a hidden bomb factory where other soldiers from the same unit are focused on a different kind of war effort.
Surrounded by 3D printed gadgets, metal ball bearings and plastic explosives, they make improvised bombs, including anti-personnel mines and devices that can be fitted onto one-way attack drones and exploded onto targets.
Asked whether he felt tired, he said: “We are always tired, we have no motivation as such, but there is the understanding that the enemy will keep coming as long as we do not stop him. If we stop fighting, our children and grandchildren will fight. That keeps us going.”
Vadym is also against simply handing over Ukrainian land to Russia.
“If we now give away borders, give away Donbas, then what?” he said.
“Any country can come to any other country and say: This is our land. Let’s coordinate, do business, and keep living as before. That is not normal in my view.”
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0:47
The Ukrainian president says ‘everyone must be on this side of peace’
The city of Kramatorsk stands testament to Ukraine’s will to fight, remaining firmly in Ukrainian hands, though Russia’s war is inching closer.
Nets stretched like a tunnel line a main road leading into the city to protect vehicles from the threat of small, killer drones.
Coils of barbed wire are also strung across fields around the outskirts of Kramatorsk along with other fortifications such as mounds of dirt and triangular lumps of concrete.
Many civilians have remained here as well as the nearby city of Slovyansk, even as other landmark sites such as Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka have fallen.
Yet the toll of living in a warzone is clear.
Stallholders swept away rubble and broken glass on Sunday after a Russian missile smashed into a central market in Kramatorsk on Saturday night.
Some, like Ella, 60, even chose to reopen despite the carnage.
“It’s frightening. We need to earn a living. I have my mother, I need to look after her, help my children. So we do what we have to do,” she said.
Her adult children live in Kyiv and want her to leave, but Kramatorsk is her home.
“We’ve been living like this for four years now. We’re so used to it. A drone flies overhead and we keep working,” she said.
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Is the UK prepared to fight a war?
Asked how she felt about what the war had done to her city, Ella’s voice wobbled and she wiped tears from her eyes.
“We keep it all inside, but it still hurts. It’s frightening and painful. I just want things as they used to be. We don’t want anything here to change,” she said.
As for what she would do if a future peace deal forced Ukraine to surrender the area, Ella said: “That’s a hard question … I wouldn’t stay. I’d leave.”
Production by security and defence producer Katy Scholes, Ukraine producer Azad Safarov, camera operator Mostyn Pryce
This community in Sri Lanka’s Kandy District is a mass of mud and loss.
The narrow, filthy streets in Gampola are filled with broken furniture, sodden toys and soiled mattresses. A torrent of floodwater ripped through this neighbourhood and many people had no time to escape.
Trying to reach their now destroyed homes is like wading through treacle – the mud knee-deep.
Many locals say they were not warned about the threat Cyclone Ditwah posed here before it struck last Friday, and weren’t told to evacuate. They say they’ve received very little help since.
Resourceful neighbours were left to try to help rescue survivors. But some had to carry the bodies of the dead, too. Mohamed Fairoos was one of them.
Image: Fairoos Mohamed
“We took five bodies from here,” he says, gesturing to a house full of debris, where mattresses hang drying over the balcony.
“We took nine bodies in total and handed them over to the hospital.” He appears both shocked and exasperated at the lack of support this community received.
Image: The house where Fairoos pulled the bodies from
“When I took the bodies, the police, the navy, no one sent for us.” He tells me he even posted a video online appealing for boats, hoping it might help.
I ask him if he thinks the government has done enough. “No,” he says forcefully. “No one called for us. No one helped us. No one gave us any boats.”
Image: Kumudu Wijekon and her husband Kumar Premachandra
‘Five people were killed here’
Just a few doors down, a group of volunteers have come to clear another home filled with floodwater. “Five people were killed here,” one of them tells me.
Five of them came from one family: a mother, father, their two daughters and son. Kumudu Wijekon tells me she was friends with them and they’d fled here to a friend’s house, hoping to escape the threat.
“There was heavy rain, but they didn’t think there would be flooding. They left their own home to save themselves from landslides. If they had stayed, they would have survived.”
Image: Chamilaka Dilrukshi
‘We don’t have a single rupee’
A short drive away, Chamilaka Dilrukshi is sobbing inside the photography studio she shares with her husband Ananda. They have two children aged four and 11.
Chamilaka is clutching a bag of rice – she says it’s been donated by a friend and it’s all they have to eat.
Image: Ananda Wijebandara and his wife Chamilaka Dilrukshi
Everything in the shop is wrecked – expensive cameras and lighting equipment covered in thick layers of mud, and outside, rows of broken frames and ripped pictures.
They think they’ve lost nearly £2,500 and their home is severely damaged. She weeps as she tells us: “We don’t have a single rupee to start our business again. We spent all of our savings on trying to build our house.”
Like Mohamed, she believed they should have been warned. “We didn’t know anything. If we did, we would have taken our cameras and our computers out. We just didn’t know it was coming.”
Image: The studio was caked in mud
Anger at government’s perceived failings
Sri Lankan president Anura Kumara Dissanayake has declared a state of emergency to deal with the aftermath of the cyclone, and international aid has arrived.
But many people are angry at the government’s perceived failings. It’s been criticised for not taking the warnings from meteorologists seriously two weeks before the cyclone made landfall, as well as for not communicating enough messages in the Tamil language.
It is going to take places like Gampola a long time to rebuild, repair and restore trust. And in a country still recovering from an economic collapse, nothing is guaranteed.
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0:22
Trump’s envoys walk around Moscow
They finally got down to business in the Kremlin more than six hours after arriving in Russia. And by that point, it was already clear that the one thing they had come to Moscow for wasn’t on offer: Russia’s agreement to their latest peace plan.
According to Vladimir Putin, it’s all Europe’s fault. While his guests were having lunch, he was busy accusing Ukraine’s allies of blocking the peace process by imposing demands that are unacceptable to Russia.
The Europeans, of course, would say it’s the other way round.
But where there was hostility to Europe, only hospitality to the Americans – part of Russia’s strategy to distance the US from its NATO allies, and bring them back to Moscow’s side.
Image: Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic
Putin thinks he’s winning…
Russia wants to return to the 28-point plan that caved in to its demands. And it believes it has the right to because of what’s happening on the battlefield.
It’s no coincidence that on the eve of the US delegation’s visit to Moscow, Russia announced the apparent capture of Pokrovsk, a key strategic target in the Donetsk region.
It was a message designed to assert Russian dominance, and by extension, reinforce its demands rather than dilute them.
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0:47
‘Everyone must be on this side of peace’
…and believes US-Russian interests are aligned
The other reason I think Vladimir Putin doesn’t feel the need to compromise is because he believes Moscow and Washington want the same thing: closer US-Russia relations, which can only come after the war is over.
It’s easy to see why. Time and again in this process, the US has defaulted to a position that favours Moscow. The way these negotiations are being conducted is merely the latest example.
With Kyiv, the Americans force the Ukrainians to come to them – first in Geneva, then Florida.
As for Moscow, it’s the other way around. Witkoff is happy to make the long overnight journey, and then endure the long wait ahead of any audience with Putin.
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