As EV demand rises, here’s what the future holds for gas cars
As EV demand rises, this is what the future will look like for gas cars, according to new data analysis by RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute).
RMI, who worked in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund, writes in a report released today called “X-change: Cars, The end of the ICE age” that the market share of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is going to fall to a level of 14-38% of sales by 2030.
RMI says that gas car sales peaked in 2017 and have been falling at 5% a year since then. By the end of this decade, gas car sales will fall to between 14 million and 38 million cars a year.
But it’s not just about just new gas car purchases – it’s also about what happens to gas cars already on the road, because the gas car stock is a function of gross sales and the scrappage of existing cars.
RMI assumes the life of a car to be around 15 years. Over the past decade, RMI writes, the number of gas cars scrapped annually has been between 40 and 50 million. But using historical data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), RMI estimates that the gas car scrappage rate will climb to between 60 and 70 million annually by 2030, based on the number of gas car sales 15 years ago, which was at around 80 million. (Scrappage is another recycling challenge that is going to need to be urgently addressed.)
RMI gives the example that in 2022, there were sales of 64 million gas cars and scrappage of 42 million. So the net growth was 22 million. But by 2025, more gas cars will be scrapped than sold, meaning the overall fleet of gas cars will peak that year, and then will be in freefall by 2030. RMI’s research shows that by 2030, the gas fleet is likely to be falling at a rate of 40 to 70 million per year, or 3-7%.
And, the researchers say, since gas cars account for around 25% of global oil demand (and made up more than 33% of oil demand growth between 2010 and 2019), demand for oil is also going to freefall in the future, thanks to EV adoption and efficiency.
And here’s the exciting bombshell from this report: By the 2040s, RMI says that the oil demand from the car sector will fall to zero.
Kingsmill Bond, senior principal at RMI, said:
Electric vehicles are on track to dominate global car sales by 2030, signaling the endgame for the largest sector of oil demand.
And where cars lead, so the rest of transport will follow: Exponential change is spreading to two-wheelers across the Global South and to trucks in China.
This is good news for cutting emissions and improving public health. But it also shifts money from the hands of petrostates into the pockets of consumers.
Read more: Heat pumps are more efficient than oil and gas heating in subzero temps – Oxford study
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After a month off trying to wrap our heads around all the chaos surrounding EVs, solar, and everything else in Washington, we’re back with the biggest EV news stories of the day from Tesla, Ford, Volvo, and everyone else on today’s hiatus-busting episode of Quick Charge!
It just gets worse and worse for the Tesla true believers – especially those willing to put their money where Elon’s mouth is! One believer is set to lose nearly $50,000 betting on Tesla’s ability to deliver a Robotaxi service by the end of June (didn’t happen), and the controversial CEO’s most recent spat with President Trump had TSLA down nearly 5% in pre-morning trading.
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Hyundai is getting ready to shake things up. A new electric crossover SUV, likely the Hyundai IONIQ 2, is set to debut in the coming months. It will sit below the Kona Electric as Hyundai expands its entry-level EV lineup.
Is Hyundai launching the IONIQ 2 in 2026?
After launching the Inster late last year, Hyundai is already preparing to introduce a new entry-level EV in Europe.
Xavier Martinet, President and CEO of Hyundai Europe, confirmed that the new EV will be revealed “in the next few months.” It will be built in Europe and scheduled to go on sale in mid-2026.
Hyundai’s new electric crossover is expected to be a twin to the Kia EV2, which will likely arrive just ahead of it next year.
It will be underpinned by the same E-GMP platform, which powers all IONIQ and Kia EV models (EV3, EV4, EV5, EV6, and EV9).
Like the Kia EV3, it will likely be available with either a 58.3 kWh or 81.4 kWh battery pack option. The former provides a WLTP range of 267 miles while the latter is rated with up to 372 miles. All trims are powered by a single electric motor at the front, producing 201 hp and 209 lb-ft of torque.
Although it may share the same underpinnings as the EV2, Hyundai’s new entry-level EV will feature an advanced new software and infotainment system.
According to Autocar, the interior will represent a “step change” in terms of usability and features. The new system enables new functions, such as ambient lighting and sounds that adjust depending on the drive mode.
It’s expected to showcase Hyundai’s powerful new Pleos software and infotainment system. As an end-to-end software platform, Pleos connects everything from the infotainment system (Pleos Connect) to the Vehicle Operating System (OS) and the cloud.
Pleos is set to power Hyundai’s upcoming software-defined vehicles (SDVs) with new features like autonomous driving and real-time data analysis.
As an Android-based system, Pleos Connect features a “smartphone-like UI” with new functions including multi-window viewing and an AI voice assistant.
The new electric crossover is expected to start at around €30,000 ($35,400), or slightly less than the Kia EV3, priced from €35,990 ($42,500). It will sit between the Inster and Kona Electric in Hyundai’s lineup.
Hyundai said that it would launch the first EV with its next-gen infotainment system in Q2 2026. Will it be the IONIQ 2? Hyundai is expected to unveil the new entry-level EV at IAA Mobility in September. Stay tuned for more info. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
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Tesla has unveiled its lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery cell factory in Nevada and claims that it is nearly ready to start production.
Like several other automakers using LFP cells, Tesla relies heavily on Chinese manufacturers for its battery cell supply.
Tesla’s cheapest electric vehicles all utilize LFP cells, and its entire range of energy storage products, Megapacks and Powerwalls, also employ the more affordable LFP cell chemistry from Chinese manufacturers.
This reliance on Chinese manufacturers is less than ideal and particularly complicated for US automakers and battery pack manufacturers like Tesla, amid an ongoing trade war between the US and virtually the entire world, including China.
As of last year, a 25% tariff already applied to battery cells from China, but this increased to more than 80% under Trump before he paused some tariffs on China. It remains unclear where they will end up by the time negotiations are complete and the trade war is resolved, but many expect it to be higher.
Prior to Trump taking power, Tesla had already planned to build a small LFP battery factory in the US to avoid the 25% tariffs.
The automaker had secured older manufacturing equipment from one of its battery cell suppliers, CATL, and planned to deploy it in the US for small-scale production.
Tesla has now released new images of the factory in Nevada and claimed that it is “nearing completion”:
Here are a few images from inside the factory (via Tesla):
Previous reporting stated that Tesla aims to produce about 10 GWh of LFP battery cells per year at the new factory.
The cells are expected to be used in Tesla’s Megapack, produced in the US. Tesla currently has a capacity to produce 40 GWh of Megapacks annually at its factory in California. The company is also working on a new Megapack factory in Texas.
Ford is also developing its own LFP battery cell factory in Michigan, but this facility is significantly larger, with a planned production capacity of 35 GWh.
Electrek’s Take
It’s nice to see this in the US. LFP was a US/Canada invention, with Arumugam Manthiram and John B. Goodenough doing much of the early work, and researchers in Quebec making several contributions to help with commercialization.
But China saw the potential early and invested heavily in volume manufacturing of LFP cells and it now dominates the market.
Tesla is now producing most of its vehicles with LFP cells and all its stationary energy storage products.
It makes sense to invest in your own production. However, Tesla is unlikely to catch up to BYD and CATL, which dominate LFP cell production.
The move will help Tesla avoid tariffs on a small percentage of its Megapacks produced in the US. Ford’s effort is more ambitious.
It’s worth noting that both Ford’s and Tesla’s LFP plants were planned before Trump’s tariffs, which have had limited success in bringing manufacturing back to the US.
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