Targets designed to drive net zero look like they’re about to be softened

Published

2 years ago

September 19, 2023

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Ever since the surprise Tory Uxbridge by-election victory, attributed to the party’s opposition to the ULEZ congestion charge scheme, Rishi Sunak has been reviewing the government’s net zero commitments.

We are about to hear the results of that review, according to Whitehall sources.

The PM has personally long been cautious about the costs that tackling climate change will impose if done too hastily, and is, it appears, keen to seize the opportunity to do something he believes will go down well with parts of the Tory voter base after a rocky six weeks.

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What will that look like?

We already know the headline conclusion of that review, since new Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho spelled them out in an article in The Sun at the weekend.

She made clear – as No 10 does tonight – that the party will remain committed to reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

However, this was coupled with a new promise that no “hard-working families [would be] forced to change their lives or have extra financial burdens put on them,” as she puts it.

That rang immediate alarm bells amongst environmental groups on Sunday.

Now we are about to find out how that complicated circle is squared – and the questions that change in approach will raise.

Two big areas have to change in order for Britain to meet its net zero obligation.

One is in the home – ending the dependence on gas boilers to heat the majority of British homes while making them more energy efficient; the other is moving away from petrol and diesel cars towards electricity powered vehicles.

The targets designed to drive both those changes look as if they are about to be softened. There have been signs for some time that the government would water down its approach to ending dependence on gas boilers.

Under the current plan, there would be a ban on gas and oil boilers in new buildings in 2025 and they would be phased out by 2035, when there was an “ambition” for all new heating systems in the UK to be low carbon after this point.

The level of ambition looks set to be watered down – no longer is the plan that every boiler will have to be low carbon by this point.

Meanwhile controversial changes to block landlords from renting properties if they did not have a minimum “C” level of energy efficiency (on a scale of A-G) also look likely to be dropped, according to sources.

The second change is a much bigger surprise – reports that the government would push back the date by which new cars must have electric rather than petrol or diesel engines from 2030 to 2035. Electric car manufacturers have poured massive of investment into Britain on the understanding that this target would drive an uptick in purchases.

It was thought by many that the battle in Whitehall had been won by those wanting to keep the target – which has been policy since 2020 – so as not to harm the industry.

Reports tonight by the BBC suggest this might change, and the reaction to this decision will be fascinating.

Some Tory MPs have already expressed their surprise. One calls it “anti-business” and said Sunak is breaking a promise he made in private to Tory MPs. “I’m seriously considering a no confidence letter,” they added.

Other smaller changes likely to be announced within days include a delay to the abolition of off-grid oil boilers which will please rural Tory MPs.

Small wins to appease sections of the backbenches are becoming increasingly important to No 10.

Sunak will present this package as a pragmatic softening while insisting he still believes in the headline targets, and the Tory campaign chiefs will be strongly warning him to avoid presenting himself as an opponent of climate action, which actually loses votes.

Environmental groups will now say the PM has a target but no plan to get there – they say it means the government doesn’t have a plan to meet the net zero promises they made in law.

They regard it as a significant moment since it is the first time the government has rolled back ambition on climate since David Cameron’s “cut the green crap” outburst, and means there is now a very substantial gap between Labour and Tories on this issue.

Sunak, however, believes he needs a roll of the dice to improve his poor political standing – and this could be one of the things that changes his fortunes.

Politics

Another tantrum from the Labour backbenches is inevitable

Published

4 hours ago

July 6, 2025

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Rachel Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn budget after welfare bill U-turn

In common with many parents across the country, here’s a conversation that I have with my young daughter on a semi-regular basis (bear with me, this will take on some political relevance eventually).

Me: “So it’s 15 minutes until your bedtime, you can either have a little bit of TV or do a jigsaw, not both.”

Daughter: “Ummmm, I want to watch TV.”

Me: “That’s fine, but it’s bed after that, you can’t do a jigsaw as well.”

Fast-forward 15 minutes.

Me: “Right, TV off now please, bedtime.”

(Pause)

Daughter: “I want to do a jigsaw.”

Now replace me with the government, the TV and jigsaw options with axing welfare cuts and scrapping the two-child cap, and my daughter with rebellious backbenchers.

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That is the tension currently present between Downing Street and Labour MPs. And my initial ultimatum is the messaging being pumped out from the government this weekend.

In essence: you’ve had your welfare U-turn, so there’s no money left for the two-child cap to go as well.

As an aside – and before my inbox fills with angry emails lambasting me for using such a crude metaphor for policies that fundamentally alter the lives of some of the most vulnerable in society – yes, I hear you, and that’s part of my point.

For many in Labour, this approach feels like the lives of their constituents are being used in a childish game of horse-trading.

So what can be done?

Well, the government could change the rules.

Altering the fiscal rules is – and will likely remain – an extremely unlikely solution. But as it happens, one of Labour’s proverbial grandparents has just popped round with a different suggestion.

A wealth tax, Lord Neil Kinnock says, is the necessary outcome of the economic restrictions the party has placed on itself.

Ever the Labour storyteller, Lord Kinnock believes this would allow the government to craft a more compelling narrative about whose side this administration is on.

That could be valuable, given one of the big gripes from many backbench critics is that they still don’t really understand what this prime minister stands for – and by extension, what all these “difficult decisions” are in aid of.

The downside is whether it will actually raise much money.

The super-rich may have lots of assets to take a slice from, but they also have expensive lawyers ready to find novel ways to keep their client’s cash away from the prying eyes of the state.

Or, of course, they could just leave – as many are doing already.

In the short term, the future is a bit easier to predict.

If Downing Street is indeed now saying there is no money to scrap the two-child cap (after heavy briefing in the opposite direction just weeks ago), an almighty tantrum from the backbenches is inevitable.

And as every parent knows, the more you give in, the harder it becomes to hold the line.

Politics

UK restores diplomatic ties with Syria

Published

10 hours ago

July 6, 2025

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The UK has re-established diplomatic ties with Syria, David Lammy has said, as he made the first visit to the country by a British minister for 14 years.

The foreign secretary visited Damascus and met with interim president Ahmed al Sharaa, also the leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and foreign minister Asaad al Shaibani.

It marks the latest diplomatic move since Bashar al Assad’s regime was toppled by rebel groups led by HTS in December.

In a statement, Mr Lammy said a “stable Syria is in the UK’s interests” and added: “I’ve seen first-hand the remarkable progress Syrians have made in rebuilding their lives and their country.

“After over a decade of conflict, there is renewed hope for the Syrian people.

“The UK is re-establishing diplomatic relations because it is in our interests to support the new government to deliver their commitment to build a stable, more secure and prosperous future for all Syrians.”

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has also announced a £94.5m support package for urgent humanitarian aid and to support the country’s long-term recovery, after a number of British sanctions against the country were lifted in April.

While HTS is still classified as a proscribed terror group, Sir Keir Starmer said last year that it could be removed from the list.

The Syrian president’s office also said on Saturday that the president and Mr Lammy discussed co-operation, as well as the latest developments in the Middle East.

Since Assad fled Syria in December, a transitional government headed by Mr al Sharaa was announced in March and a number of western countries have restored ties.

In May, US President Donald Trump said the United States would lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and normalise relations during a speech at the US-Saudi investment conference.

He said he wanted to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed.

“I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”

Politics

Secret Service seizes $400M in crypto, cold wallet among world’s largest

Published

12 hours ago

July 6, 2025

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Secret Service seizes 0M in crypto, cold wallet among world’s largest

Secret Service quietly amasses one of the world’s largest crypto cold wallets with $400 million seized, exposing scams through blockchain sleuthing and VPN missteps.