Zelenskyy’s poise, presence and persuasion could be key for Ukraine at crucial Washington talks
The Ukrainian president arrives in Washington DC today, the 548th day of the war, with a plea – “do not abandon us now”.
It is a sign of the times, if not a reflection of a shifting world order, that the weakest link in the Western alliance against Russian aggression right now seems to be America’s Republican Party.
They hold the keys to unlocking continued critical funding, and President Zelenskyy knows his presence, his poise and his persuasion here today might mean everything.
And so the crux of his day in Washington will not be the White House, where he will see the president.
His focus will be Capitol Hill, and politicians who are members of a party once led by the likes of Ronald Reagan and the Bushes – national security hawks and stalwarts of western interventionism.
Transformed by Donald Trump, the Republican Party is no longer so much about projecting American principles of democracy and freedom through the might of American power.
While an old guard of Republicans still inhabits the corridors of the Senate, over in the House of Representatives, where the Republicans are the majority, there is an air of America-first isolationism.
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‘US not drip-feeding weapons to Ukraine’
Donald Trump is an enduring influence
Recent polling analysis by The New York Times characterises the Republican Party’s shift in stark terms.
In 2005, 53% of Republican politicians believed that America should be active abroad. This year, just 24% of them think the same.
The 2005 data came just after George W. Bush was re-elected. It was a few years after 9/11 at a time when America was engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Was it the futility of those wars that shifted a critical proportion of America’s political representatives?
Or was it the unquestionable power of Trumpian politics?
Probably both. The shadow of “forever wars” runs long. Donald Trump is an enduring influence.
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2019. Pic: AP
The futile battles they supported in Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t have an existential feel to them in the way that this battle with Russia does.
That fuels both sides of the Ukraine argument – to defend harder, or to back off.
Both are choices that have consequences.
Ukraine war – follow live updates
Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Eric Trump, former US President Donald Trump’s son
Right-wing Republicans threaten shutdown
On Capitol Hill, it comes down to a particular group of Republicans on the right flank of the party.
People like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz and others are Trumpian disruptors who have got much of the rest of the party, led by speaker Kevin McCarthy, wrapped around their fingers.
They are threatening to force a government shutdown next week if their deep opposition to Ukraine funding and other issues are not addressed.
Their cry is that President Biden and the Democrats are providing “blank cheques” for Ukraine and that there is no oversight.
Neither of these assertions are accurate.
Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy speaks at the Capitol in Washington. Pic: AP
To date, America has provided Ukraine with $101bn (£81bn) in security assistance packages.
This represents about $0.68 (£0.55) per American adult per day. It has also had a positive impact on American manufacturing.
The packages are monitored by a working group of more than 160 officials across 20 federal agencies.
From the political right, the Ukraine question is often presented as a zero-sum choice: “We have our own massive challenges, why are we trying to fix someone else’s? Why protect Ukraine’s border when we can’t protect our own?”
Immigration on the southern border is an unquestionable problem.
The old Republican Party would say: “We are America – we can do both.” The new one? Not so much.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with his delegation in the UN General Assembly on Wednesday
Independence is at stake
White House officials still believe the congressional support will hold; that the leadership in both parties are behind Ukraine’s fight.
They know though that the counteroffensive they are fuelling needs decisive progress and that the perception of a rudderless “just send more weapons” approach has limits.
And so the White House maintains the language of persuasion.
The spokesperson for the president’s National Security Council said last night: “If you think that the cost of supporting Ukraine is high now, just ponder how exorbitantly higher it may be in blood and treasure if we just walk away.”
Admiral John Kirby added: “I actually think that the American people understand that what’s at stake here isn’t just the future of Ukraine… it is this idea of independence.
“It’s a founding ideal in this country, and we didn’t win our independence without foreign help either.”
This is the most significant statement from the US president in days, though it still keeps everyone guessing.
In a message conveyed through his press secretary, he is giving diplomacy up to two weeks to work.
“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Karoline Leavitt quoted him as saying.
It is not clear what “whether or not to go” entails.
Israel-Iran conflict: Latest updates
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Trump: Iran ‘weeks away’ from nuclear weapon
We know that he has been given a spectrum of different military options by his generals and we know that the Israelis are pressuring him to use American B2 bombers with their bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iran’s nuclear facility at Fodow.
The Israelis are encouraging no delay. But against that, he is weighing up many risks, both military and political.
Militarily, it is not clear how successful a bunker-busting strike on Fordow would be.
Experts have suggested it would require several of the massive bombs, which have never been used in combat before, to be dropped on the site.
It is not as simple as one clean strike and job done.
Politically, the president is under significant pressure domestically not to get involved in Iran.
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MAGA civil war breaks out over Iran
Within his own MAGA coalition – influencers, politicians and media personalities are lining up in criticism of involvement in the conflict.
One of those leading the criticism, his former chief strategist Steve Bannon, who maintains huge influence, was seen entering the White House on Thursday.
His press secretary reiterated to us that the president always wants to give diplomacy a chance and she confirmed that his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has spoken to the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.
Steve Bannon, seen recently at a conservative event in Maryland, is against US involvement in Iran. Pic: AP
European leaders, including the UK foreign secretary David Lammy, who is in Washington, are meeting Mr Araghchi in Geneva on Friday.
The two-week window – assuming it lasts that long – also gives space to better prepare for any strike and mitigate against some of the other risks of US involvement.
Read more from Sky News:
Is Trump losing his MAGA support?
Gantz defends conflict with Iran
‘Love Trump’ says Israeli minister
There are 40,000 troops in bases across the Middle East. It takes time to increase security at these bases or to move non-essential personnel out. It also takes time to move strategic military assets into the region.
The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and its support vessels were redeployed from the Indo-Pacific on Monday. Their last known position was the Strait of Malacca two days ago.
The Nimitz Carrier Group will overlap with the USS Carl Vinson group which was deployed to the Middle East in March.
The potential two-week window also allows for more time for a ‘day after’ plan, given that the Israeli strategy appears to be regime change from within.
Since the Israeli action in Iran began last week, the worst-case scenario of mass casualties in Israel from Iranian attacks has not materialised.
The president is said to be surprised and encouraged by this. “Israel has exceeded a lot of people’s expectations in their abilities,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
The Israeli success, the absence of a mass casualty event in Israel, and the lack of any sustained counterattack by Iranian proxies in the region remove reservations that previous presidents have had about taking on Iran.
That said, sources have told Sky News that the president is determined that the diplomatic solution should be given a chance despite current pessimism over the chances of success.
A critical two weeks ahead.
A SpaceX rocket has exploded before launch – sending a dramatic fireball high into the sky.
Starship 36 was preparing for its 10th test flight at Starbase – SpaceX’s launch site at the southern tip of Texas – when the incident occurred on Wednesday evening.
During take off procedures just after 11pm local time, the rocket exploded into a giant fireball.
The company described the incident as a “major anomaly”.
Starship 36 was preparing for its 10th test flight. Pic: NASASpaceFlight
The test flight failed at Starbase – SpaceX’s launch site. Pic: NASASpaceFlight
In a statement, it added: “A safety clear area around the site was maintained throughout the operation and all personnel are safe and accounted for.
“Our Starbase team is actively working to safe the test site and the immediate surrounding area in conjunction with local officials.
“There are no hazards to residents in surrounding communities, and we ask that individuals do not attempt to approach the area while safing operations continue.”
Read more from Sky News:
Trump: I ‘may or may not’ strike Iran
Elon Musk posts ‘drug test results’
It marks the latest failure for the space flight company, which hopes that Starship will one day be used to ferry people and cargo to Mars.
Last month, a Starship test flight began spinning out of control about 30 minutes after its launch because of fuel leaks – meaning it broke up on re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere.
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May: SpaceX rocket spins out of control
That followed explosive past failures in January, where a rocket blew up about eight minutes after take-off, and March, which forced flights in Florida to be temporarily grounded.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said in May that despite the rocket failure, the test flight was a “big improvement”.
A day later, he said he wants to send a spacecraft crewed by humanoid robots on a voyage to Mars by the end of 2026.
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