The Ukrainian president arrives in Washington DC today, the 548th day of the war, with a plea – “do not abandon us now”.
It is a sign of the times, if not a reflection of a shifting world order, that the weakest link in the Western alliance against Russian aggression right now seems to be America’s Republican Party.
They hold the keys to unlocking continued critical funding, and President Zelenskyy knows his presence, his poise and his persuasion here today might mean everything.
And so the crux of his day in Washington will not be the White House, where he will see the president.
His focus will be Capitol Hill, and politicians who are members of a party once led by the likes of Ronald Reagan and the Bushes – national security hawks and stalwarts of western interventionism.
Transformed by Donald Trump, the Republican Party is no longer so much about projecting American principles of democracy and freedom through the might of American power.
While an old guard of Republicans still inhabits the corridors of the Senate, over in the House of Representatives, where the Republicans are the majority, there is an air of America-first isolationism.
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3:00
‘US not drip-feeding weapons to Ukraine’
Donald Trump is an enduring influence
Recent polling analysis by The New York Times characterises the Republican Party’s shift in stark terms.
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In 2005, 53% of Republican politicians believed that America should be active abroad. This year, just 24% of them think the same.
The 2005 data came just after George W. Bush was re-elected. It was a few years after 9/11 at a time when America was engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Was it the futility of those wars that shifted a critical proportion of America’s political representatives?
Or was it the unquestionable power of Trumpian politics?
Probably both. The shadow of “forever wars” runs long. Donald Trump is an enduring influence.
Image: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2019. Pic: AP
The futile battles they supported in Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t have an existential feel to them in the way that this battle with Russia does.
That fuels both sides of the Ukraine argument – to defend harder, or to back off.
Image: Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Eric Trump, former US President Donald Trump’s son
Right-wing Republicans threaten shutdown
On Capitol Hill, it comes down to a particular group of Republicans on the right flank of the party.
People like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz and others are Trumpian disruptors who have got much of the rest of the party, led by speaker Kevin McCarthy, wrapped around their fingers.
They are threatening to force a government shutdown next week if their deep opposition to Ukraine funding and other issues are not addressed.
Their cry is that President Biden and the Democrats are providing “blank cheques” for Ukraine and that there is no oversight.
Neither of these assertions are accurate.
Image: Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy speaks at the Capitol in Washington. Pic: AP
To date, America has provided Ukraine with $101bn (£81bn) in security assistance packages.
This represents about $0.68 (£0.55) per American adult per day. It has also had a positive impact on American manufacturing.
The packages are monitored by a working group of more than 160 officials across 20 federal agencies.
From the political right, the Ukraine question is often presented as a zero-sum choice: “We have our own massive challenges, why are we trying to fix someone else’s? Why protect Ukraine’s border when we can’t protect our own?”
Immigration on the southern border is an unquestionable problem.
The old Republican Party would say: “We are America – we can do both.” The new one? Not so much.
Image: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with his delegation in the UN General Assembly on Wednesday
Independence is at stake
White House officials still believe the congressional support will hold; that the leadership in both parties are behind Ukraine’s fight.
They know though that the counteroffensive they are fuelling needs decisive progress and that the perception of a rudderless “just send more weapons” approach has limits.
And so the White House maintains the language of persuasion.
The spokesperson for the president’s National Security Council said last night: “If you think that the cost of supporting Ukraine is high now, just ponder how exorbitantly higher it may be in blood and treasure if we just walk away.”
Admiral John Kirby added: “I actually think that the American people understand that what’s at stake here isn’t just the future of Ukraine… it is this idea of independence.
“It’s a founding ideal in this country, and we didn’t win our independence without foreign help either.”
Melania Trump has threatened to sue Hunter Biden for more than $1bn (£736.5m) in damages if he does not retract comments linking her to Jeffrey Epstein.
Mr Biden, who is the son of former US president Joe Biden, alleged in an interview this month that sex trafficker Epstein introduced the first lady to President Donald Trump.
“Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. The connections are, like, so wide and deep,” he claimed.
Ms Trump’s lawyer labelled the comments false, defamatory and “extremely salacious” in a letter to Mr Biden.
Image: Hunter Biden. File pic: AP
Her lawyer wrote that the first lady suffered “overwhelming financial and reputational harm” as the claims were widely discussed on social media and reported by media around the world.
The president and first lady previously said they were introduced by modelling agent Paolo Zampolli at a New York Fashion Week party in 1998.
Mr Biden attributed the claim that Epstein introduced the couple to author Michael Wolff, who was accused by Mr Trump of making up stories to sell books in June and was dubbed a “third-rate reporter” by the president.
The former president’s son doubled down on his remarks in a follow-up interview with the same YouTube outlet, Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan, entitled “Hunter Biden Apology”.
Asked if he would apologise to the first lady, Mr Biden responded: “F*** that – that’s not going to happen.”
He added: “I don’t think these threats of lawsuits add up to anything other than designed distraction.”
Ms Trump’s threat to sue Mr Biden echoes a strategy employed by her husband, who has aggressively used legal action to go after critics.
Public figures like the Trumps must meet a high bar to succeed in a defamation suit like the one that could be brought by the first lady if she follows through with her threat.
In his initial interview, Mr Biden also hit out at “elites” and others in the Democratic Party, who he claims undermined his father before he dropped out of last year’s race for president.
This comes as pressure on the White House to release the Epstein files has been mounting for weeks, after he made a complete U-turn on his administration’s promise to release more information publicly.
The US Justice Department, which confirmed in July that it would not be releasing the files, said a review of the Epstein case had found “no incriminating ‘client list'” and “no credible evidence” the jailed financier – who killed himself in prison in 2019 – had blackmailed famous men.
But there are fears they will discuss a deal robbing Ukraine of the land currently occupied by Russia – something Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he won’t accept.
Here’s what three of our correspondents think ahead of the much-anticipated face-to-face.
Putin’s legacy is at stake – he’ll want territory and more By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent, in Alaska
Putin doesn’t just want victory. He needs it.
Three and a half years after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, this war has to end in a visible win for the Russian president. It can’t have been for nothing. His legacy is at stake.
So the only deal I think he’ll be willing to accept at Friday’s summit is one that secures Moscow’s goals.
These include territory (full control of the four Ukrainian regions which Russia has already claimed), permanent neutrality for Kyiv and limits on its armed forces.
I expect he’ll be trying to convince Trump that such a deal is the quickest path to peace. The only alternative, in Russia’s eyes, is an outright triumph on the battlefield.
Image: Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Osaka in 2019
I think Putin‘s hope is that the American president agrees with this view and then gives Ukraine a choice: accept our terms or go it alone without US support.
A deal like that might not be possible this week, but it may be in the future if Putin can give Trump something in return.
That’s why there’s been lots of talk from Moscow this week about all the lucrative business deals that can come from better US-Russia relations.
The Kremlin will want to use this opportunity to remind the White House of what else it can offer, apart from an end to the fighting.
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4:25
What will Kyiv be asked to give up?
Ukraine would rather this summit not be happening By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor, in Ukraine
Ukraine would far rather this meeting wasn’t happening.
Trump seemed to have lost patience with Putin and was about to hit Russia with more severe sanctions until he was distracted by the Russian leader’s suggestion that they meet.
Ukrainians say the Alaska summit rewards Putin by putting him back on the world stage.
But the meeting is happening, and they have to be realistic.
Most of all, they want a ceasefire before any negotiations can happen. Then they want the promise of security guarantees.
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2:35
Does Europe have any power over Ukraine’s future?
That is because they know that Putin may well come back for more even if peace does break out. They need to be able to defend themselves should that happen.
And they want the promise of reparations to rebuild their country, devastated by Putin’s wanton, unprovoked act of aggression.
There are billions of Russian roubles and assets frozen across the West. They want them released and sent their way.
What they fear is Trump being hoodwinked by Putin with the lure of profit from US-Russian relations being restored, regardless of Ukraine’s fate.
Image: US Army paratroopers train at the military base where discussions will take place. File pic: Reuters
That would allow Russia to regain its strength, rearm and prepare for another round of fighting in a few years’ time.
Trump and his golf buddy-turned-negotiator Steve Witkoff appear to believe Putin might be satisfied with keeping some of the land he has taken by force.
Putin says he wants much more than that. He wants Ukraine to cease to exist as a country separate from Russia.
Any agreement short of that is only likely to be temporary.
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1:41
Zelenskyy: I told Trump ‘Putin is bluffing’
Trump’s pride on the line – he has a reputation to restore By Martha Kelner, US correspondent, in Alaska
As with anything Donald Trump does, he already has a picture in his mind.
The image of Trump shaking hands with the ultimate strongman leader, Vladimir Putin, on US soil calls to his vanity and love of an attention-grabbing moment.
There is also pride at stake.
Image: Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, where Trump will meet his Russian counterpart. File pic: Reuters
Trump campaigned saying he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on his first day in office, so there is an element of him wanting to follow through on that promise to voters, even though it’s taken him 200-plus days in office and all he’s got so far is this meeting, without apparently any concessions on Putin’s end.
In Trump’s mind – and in the minds of many of his supporters – he is the master negotiator, the chief dealmaker, and he wants to bolster that reputation.
He is keen to further the notion that he negotiates in a different, more straightforward way than his predecessors and that it is paying dividends.
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