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Sep 21, 2023, 07:00 AM ET

The Braves are in. The Dodgers are in. The Rays and Orioles are in — and the Brewers and Twins aren’t far behind. Welcome to the stretch run!

With a week and a half left in the season, these teams have locked up their spots in the playoffs — but others still have a lot to play for.

Which of the three AL West teams vying for the division title will come out on top? And which of the five teams battling for a National League wild card — the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Marlins, Reds and Giants — will secure the remaining two slots?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 24 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings

Record: 97-55

Previous ranking: 1

That ugly sweep to the Marlins after clinching the division title has put the best overall record in jeopardy for the Braves as the Orioles are now breathing down their necks — although, with seven of their final 10 games against the Nationals, the Braves should be able to hold on. With an 11-strikeout performance in a win over the Phillies on Tuesday, Spencer Strider is up to 270 strikeouts, just six short of John Smoltz’s franchise record set in his Cy Young season of 1996. Strider’s 37.9% strikeout percentage is the second highest ever for a starter in a full season, behind only Gerrit Cole’s 39.9% in 2019. — Schoenfield

Record: 95-57

Previous ranking: 2

Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters this week that Jack Flaherty is being shifted to a bullpen role. The switch isn’t necessarily permanent, but even if it’s only a one- or two-game experiment, it’s one worth conducting. With John Means back in the rotation and looking solid, Baltimore has five viable starters, one more than it’ll need in a postseason context. Flaherty has a 6.68 ERA since joining Baltimore at the trade deadline and just wasn’t getting deep enough into games. He has made just five relief appearances in his career, so there isn’t much to go on in terms of his track record in that role. His 1.017 OPS allowed this season in first innings isn’t a great sign, but perhaps his stuff will play up as a reliever. Flaherty’s maximum velocity this season (97.2 mph) ranks in the 78th percentile among qualifying big league hurlers. — Doolittle

Record: 93-58

Previous ranking: 3

The Dodgers won their 90th game and clinched the NL West on Saturday, with 15 games remaining in their regular season. Their focus has since shifted to the playoffs, where their short-handed starting rotation could present problems. But let’s not jump there without appreciating what the Dodgers just did. This, if you remember, was supposed to be a transition year. They took a conservative approach to the offseason in order to create a runway for some of their younger players, and yet they breezed to their 10th division title in 11 years. Their bullpen had the fifth-worst ERA in the majors by the end of June, their rotation has been decimated by injuries all year — in addition to Julio Urias being placed on administrative leave in the wake of domestic violence charges — and yet the Dodgers just keep rolling. It’s truly remarkable. — Gonzalez

Record: 93-60

Previous ranking: 4

The four-game split with Baltimore last week had to register as a letdown in St. Petersburg after Tampa Bay won the first two games of the series. The split leaves the Rays still needing to make up sizable ground in the division race, the winner of which is likely to be the American League’s top seed in the playoffs. Besides the small problem of the Orioles continuing to play championship-caliber baseball is the disparity in remaining schedules. Sandwiched around two games at Fenway Park is a pair of three-game series against a very good Blue Jays team fighting for its postseason life. Meanwhile, the O’s have a four-game set at Cleveland before finishing up with six home contests against last-place teams: Washington and Boston. — Doolittle

Record: 85-68

Previous ranking: 5

Just two weeks ago, Houston manhandled division rival Texas to the tune of 39-10 over three games. The Astros vaulted into the AL West lead during that throttling for the first time this season. With their main weapons back on the field, it very much looked like Houston was situated for a stout defense of its World Series crown. Instead, the Astros have since played sub-.500 baseball and find themselves not just in a no-room-for-error three-team race for the division title, but just one short losing streak away from dropping out of the playoffs altogether. Meanwhile, manager Dusty Baker opted to give Yordan Alvarez a break, saying he didn’t like the way the star slugger looked at the plate or moving on the field. However it shakes out, the Astros’ stretch run looks more interesting than we would have anticipated. — Doolittle

Record: 86-66

Previous ranking: 6

The Brewers are close to securing another division title and playoff spot under manager Craig Counsell as they seem to be peaking at the right time, especially on the mound. Their pitching ranked near the top of the majors in ERA last week — they’ve given up five or more runs just once in their past 12 games. Brandon Woodruff has continued his solid return from injury, compiling a 1.06 ERA over his past five starts that included a complete game shutout followed up by a six-inning stint where he gave up just one run against the Nationals. If Rowdy Tellez and/or Carlos Santana (as a lefty) can get hot next month, Milwaukee could be a dangerous playoff team. — Rogers

Record: 83-69

Previous ranking: 8

The Phillies haven’t won three games in a row since late August as they struggle to officially secure that top wild-card spot. Michael Lorenzen has pitched himself out of the rotation and into the bullpen, so once the Phillies do lock up a playoff spot, it will be fascinating to see who manager Rob Thomson lines up as the next two starters behind Zack Wheeler in a wild-card series. Ranger Suarez has been the best of the rest of late with a 2.86 ERA over his past six starts, although the walk rate has been a little high (16 in 34 2/3 innings). Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is up to 45 home runs, following up last year’s 46-homer season. He’s the first player with consecutive 45-homer seasons since Ryan Howard did it with the Phillies in four consecutive seasons from 2006 to 2009. — Schoenfield

Record: 85-67

Previous ranking: 7

With Toronto one of four teams — along with Texas, Houston and Seattle — fighting for three AL playoff berths, it’s easy to fixate on the Jays’ remaining slate, which isn’t an easy one. Toronto’s stretch run consists entirely of AL East rivals: the Yankees and Rays. Both opponents have plenty to play for, with the Rays angling for a division crown and the Yankees trying to extend their epic streak of non-losing seasons. Perhaps more important than the schedule for Toronto is simply trying to figure out what this Jays team is about. Just this month, it has had three winning streaks of at least three games, but the Jays were also swept at home in a crucial four-game series against Texas. So more pertinent than the opponents down the stretch is the question: Which Jays team is going to show up for the most important games of the season? — Doolittle

Record: 84-68

Previous ranking: 10

A streaky second half continued for the Rangers last week as they swept the Blue Jays in a crucial four-game series in Toronto only to lose the next four, including a sweep at the hands of the below-.500 Guardians. Texas’ offense dried up in that series, scoring just six runs over the three games. Mitch Garver had the roughest week — going just 3-for-24 — while Corey Seager wasn’t much better, hitting just .217 over a seven-day span ending on Tuesday. The good news for Texas came in the return of Adolis Garcia from injury. He was out less than two weeks and now is ready for the stretch run — and this up-and-down offense needs him. Now, if their bullpen can lock in, the Rangers might have a chance. Otherwise, it’ll be a long offseason. — Rogers

Record: 84-68

Previous ranking: 9

Let’s give a big shoutout to J.P. Crawford, who has had an outstanding offensive season. Thanks to a .378 OBP and 50 extra-base hits, Crawford ranks seventh in the AL in offensive WAR. (Offensive WAR includes a positional adjustment, so it doesn’t mean Crawford has been the fifth-best hitter; he’s not in the top 10 in runs created, although he does rank right outside the top 10 in OPS+). Crawford has added more power, pulling the ball with authority much more often, but he works the strike zone better than any Mariners hitter in a long time with 88 walks and a low chase rate. — Schoenfield

Record: 81-72

Previous ranking: 12

As the Twins turn their attention to ending their record 18-game postseason losing streak, it’s a mystery what their postseason lineup might look like. Byron Buxton’s injuries are an old story, but it’s still possible he could be patrolling center field in October. Carlos Correa, meanwhile, hit the IL because of a worsening case of plantar fasciitis. He, too, might be back in time for the playoffs. Finally, breakout third baseman Royce Lewis turned up with a hamstring problem and is headed for an MRI to determine the extent of the issue. All of these players are now suspended in postseason limbo. Needless to say, Minnesota’s chances of finally getting a playoff win look a whole lot better with this trio than without it. — Doolittle

Record: 81-72

Previous ranking: 13

The way the D-backs navigated through last week served as a perfect encapsulation of how wacky and unpredictable the wild-card races have been this year. They lost three straight to the lowly Mets, with the Cubs on tap, set to match up the top of their rotation against the back end of Arizona’s. It seemed as if the D-backs were destined to fade down the stretch. Instead, they swept the Cubs over the weekend, vaulting into the second wild-card spot.

“We’re trying to win out,” D-backs first baseman Christian Walker said after Sunday’s game. “We want to give ourselves a no-doubt chance, and we understand how hard it is and how quickly things change.” Do they ever. — Gonzalez

Record: 79-73

Previous ranking: 11

A 1-5 road trip crushed the Cubs’ chances of winning the division or hosting a wild-card series, but they’re still in decent position to make the postseason. Cody Bellinger’s slump has coincided with the team’s issues scoring runs. He has slugged just .308 over a recent 10-game span in which the Cubs went 2-8. A weekend series sweep by fellow NL wild-card contender Arizona really hurt, too, as the Cubs lost all three games while pitching their top two starters and the Diamondbacks were missing both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Marcus Stroman has returned from a rib cartilage injury and will pitch out of the bullpen. With Michael Fulmer and closer Adbert Alzolay on the IL, Stroman could get some meaningful innings down the stretch. — Rogers

Record: 79-74

Previous ranking: 16

A weekend demolition of the Braves kept the Marlins in the thick of the wild-card race. They scored 36 runs in the three-game sweep as Jazz Chisholm became the first Marlins player with grand slams in consecutive games and Luis Arraez ripped out eight hits, including three home runs. With an off-day on Thursday and another one on Monday, the Marlins will also be able to bypass a couple of starts from the bottom of the rotation, and a concluding six-game road trip against the Mets and Pirates isn’t the toughest of final weeks. Miami has a good shot at its first full-season playoff berth since 2003. — Schoenfield

Record: 79-75

Previous ranking: 14

The Reds are hanging around the playoff race and could make a push in the final week, considering their final eight games come against teams below .500. However, they haven’t had a late-season defining stretch just yet. After getting swept by the Cardinals recently, they won their next two series and took Game 1 against the Twins on Monday before losing on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s been that kind of back-and-forth for them for quite some time. The team’s waiver claims haven’t exactly panned out, either, as Harrison Bader is on the IL and Hunter Renfroe was DFA’d this week. Bader hit .161 over 14 games for the Reds, who will have to rely on their young players to reach the postseason. The return of Matt McLain from an oblique injury will help. — Rogers

Record: 76-76

Previous ranking: 18

Spoilers is not a role that you’d traditionally associate with the Yankees, but that’s where they’re at. New York’s homestretch includes a number of games against teams engaged in close battles to get into the postseason — Arizona and AL East rival Toronto. When you tack on the Yankees’ quest to avoid their first losing record since 1992, New York’s remaining schedule will have a little drama around it. The quest for .500 is likely to come down to the final weekend when the Bombers finish their season with a three-game series against the triple-digit-losing Royals. It’s not likely to conjure old memories of George Brett against Goose Gossage but, hey, you never know. — Doolittle

Record: 76-76

Previous ranking: 15

The Giants lost for the 11th time this month on Tuesday night, but the biggest blow occurred in the third inning, when Alex Cobb exited with discomfort in his hip. The next day, he was placed on the IL, essentially ending his season. The regular season, at least. Cobb has put up a 3.87 ERA in 151 1/3 innings this year, joining Logan Webb as the only reliable, consistent starters in the Giants’ staff. On the night he went down, the Giants dropped to three games out of the final wild-card spot with three teams in front of them. Their path just got a lot more difficult. — Gonzalez

Record: 75-78

Previous ranking: 17

With Triston Casas joining Jarren Duran on the IL, and Boston searching for its next roster architect, it’s hard to look at the current Red Sox group with an eye toward the future. One player who will be there going forward is Masataka Yoshida, who’s wrapping up his first MLB campaign. He has mostly been as advertised, which is a tepid observation. He has hit for a decent average but displayed limited patience and only occasional power. It’s an overall above-average hitting profile. The problem is that Yoshida can’t run and that limits his value in the field and on the bases. The bottom line: He’s at just 1.0 bWAR as the season winds down. — Doolittle

Record: 75-78

Previous ranking: 19

With a 10-1 rout over the lowly A’s on Sunday, the Padres became the last team in the majors to win a fourth consecutive game. They proceeded to win their next three, running their winning streak to seven games and counting, which begs the question: Where was this earlier? Recent surge aside, the Padres find themselves 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with four teams to jump and only nine games remaining in their season. They could make this really, really interesting if they win out, but in all likelihood this will end up as one final tease before the conclusion of a thoroughly disappointing season. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have been shut down, Manny Machado has been relegated to DH duties because of a balky elbow, and the Padres, helped by a soft schedule at the end, are probably too late. — Gonzalez

Record: 72-81

Previous ranking: 20

Cleveland outfielders have combined for 18 home runs — more than 20 fewer than any other team — after hitting 28 last season (which wasn’t the lowest in the majors; Tigers outfielders hit 23). The last outfield with fewer than 20 home runs: the 1992 White Sox, featuring Tim Raines and Lance Johnson, who hit 19. The 1989 Astros hit 18, and the last team with fewer than 18 was the 1976 White Sox with 17. This blurb has been brought to you by Cleveland Public Power. — Schoenfield

Record: 71-81

Previous ranking: 22

One Tiger who wishes the season wasn’t going to end for Detroit in a couple of weeks is second-year slugger Spencer Torkelson — the former top overall pick is building the most sustained momentum of his young career. Since the All-Star break, Torkelson has hit .237/.319/.509 with 17 homers in 62 games. The pace has picked up even more in September, during which he’s at .265/.320/.544. Since the trade deadline, Torkelson’s OPS ranks in the top 30 of the majors. Going forward, one split you’d like to see ironed out in Torkelson’s profile is his awkward home/road disparity. So far as a big leaguer, Torkelson has a .790 road OPS but just .604 at Comerica Park where, you know, he plays half his games. — Doolittle

Record: 71-81

Previous ranking: 23

For all New York’s disappointing results this season, Kodai Senga has been one of the few Mets who has matched expectations — if not exceeded them. With a 2.95 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 155 1/3 innings, he’ll get some down-ballot Cy Young votes. Coming over from Japan, where pitchers normally start once per week, he was handled carefully by the Mets, as he has made just three starts on four days of rest. The ghost forkball has been as advertised and rates as one of the best wipeout pitches in MLB, as batters have hit .112 against it with no home runs and 104 strikeouts in 177 PAs that end with that pitch (through Tuesday). — Schoenfield

Record: 69-83

Previous ranking: 21

On Friday afternoon, Anthony Rendon revealed he has been dealing with a tibia fracture, a diagnosis — from a fifth doctor of his own choosing — that ran in contrast with the Angels’ description of a deep bone bruise over these past two months. Later that night, media returned to the clubhouse to find that Shohei Ohtani’s locker had been cleared out, the product, we learned the following day, of him shutting it down as a hitter and shifting his focus to elbow surgery. Mike Trout, meanwhile, is running out of time in his hopes of returning from the hamate fracture he suffered in early July.

The Angels are a mess of epic proportions, as illustrated by the state of their best players. Ohtani is heading toward free agency, Trout has struggled mightily to stay healthy these past three years, and Rendon’s contract, with $114 million remaining over the next three years, feels untenable. The Angels, meanwhile, have secured their eighth consecutive losing season, the longest streak in franchise history. — Gonzalez

Record: 71-81

Previous ranking: 24

The Pirates have not mailed it in down the stretch. After beating the Nationals three straight times last week, they played the Yankees tough in a series loss, getting outscored only 15-10 over the three games. They’ve pitched well over that timeframe, compiling an ERA just under 4.00 for the week ending on Tuesday. Once again, it was righty Mitch Keller leading the way. He tossed eight shutout innings in a 2-0 win against the Nats. It came after a blowup against the vaunted Braves offense. Take that game away and, much like the whole year, Keller has been fantastic in the final weeks of the season. He’s the unquestioned ace of the team moving forward. — Rogers

Record: 67-85

Previous ranking: 25

Adam Wainwright’s 200th win was a thing of beauty. He made it through seven innings on Monday while giving up four hits and two walks in a tight affair with the Brewers. Nursing a 1-0 lead most of the way, his curveball showed its old life, especially in the later innings when it looked like the veteran would not be denied. In the process, he surpassed 100 innings on the season over 21 starts. The 41-year-old is retiring after compiling a 7.40 ERA in 2023, but he’ll have his last outing in St. Louis as a lasting memory: a 1-0 win to secure No. 200. — Rogers

Record: 68-85

Previous ranking: 26

Jackson Rutledge, the 6-foot-8 right-hander who was the team’s first-round pick in 2019, had an up-and-down career in the minors with injuries and inconsistent results. After posting a 3.71 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A, the Nationals are giving him a look down the stretch. His MLB debut was rough as he allowed 10 hits and seven runs in 3 2/3 innings, but he bounced back against the White Sox, allowing two runs (both home runs) in 6 1/3 innings. His fastball has averaged 95 mph, but he’ll need to improve the changeup to give him another off-speed weapon. Batters are 8-for-16 against it with two home runs. He’s probably more of a deep rotation option for next season. — Schoenfield

Record: 58-95

Previous ranking: 27

Surprisingly, Mike Clevinger has been the team’s second most valuable — and consistent — player after Luis Robert Jr. His latest start was his best as he pitched a complete game against the Nationals on Monday, coming within one out of a shutout. It was the White Sox’s first complete game of the season and Clevinger’s third of his career. His 3.42 ERA over 22 starts would rank seventh in the AL if not for an early-season injury that prevents him from qualifying. He and the team have a mutual option for next season, but Clevinger isn’t likely to exercise his end of it. In a miserable season in Chicago, he has been very good. — Rogers

Record: 56-96

Previous ranking: 28

The Rockies are barreling toward their first 100-loss season in franchise history, but there has been one very clear bright spot lately — Nolan Jones, the rookie outfielder acquired in a swap of young position players with the Guardians last November, has slashed .286/.374/.524 in 96 games since his call-up in late May, hitting 17 home runs and stealing 17 bases. He’s the first rookie in franchise history to accumulate at least 15 homers and 15 steals in the same season, and he has a shot at 20/20 despite spending most of the first two months in the minor leagues. Two Mondays ago, he also recorded the fastest outfield assist of 2023. — Gonzalez

Record: 51-102

Previous ranking: 29

With Salvador Perez suffering a concussion and Freddy Fermin fracturing his finger, the Royals have two of the unlikeliest major leaguers of 2023 in catchers Logan Porter and Tyler Cropley. Porter, a former clubhouse attendant for the Royals’ rookie league team in Arizona, was signed out of Utah Tech in 2018 — with the idea that he would be a bullpen catcher. The Royals told him he might never get in a game — but he did. He hit .301 in the minors in 2022 and .232 this year in Triple-A before getting called up and hitting his first home run on Sept. 16. Cropley, meanwhile, began 2023 in Double-A … as the bullpen catcher. He was called up Sept. 9, but he didn’t get in a game and was designated for assignment two days later. Those injuries to Perez and Fermin gave Cropley another chance, and he started on Tuesday and went 1-for-3 with a sac fly. — Schoenfield

Record: 46-106

Previous ranking: 30

The A’s lost for the sixth straight time and for the 105th time this season on Tuesday night, but a stray dog also wandered into the visiting dugout and made friends with Mariners shortstop Crawford. That was sweet. It was a rose sprouting from concrete, a reminder that beauty can manifest itself anywhere, even within a sewage dump. One just has to actively seek it out. So, remember — there’s beauty somewhere in this miserable A’s season. If you figure out where it is, please let us know. We could all use some positivity. — Gonzalez

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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4 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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5 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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