Ian’s face is grimy, his hair matted. A cigarette butt picked from a dustbin hangs from his fingers.

He calls out from the pavement asking: “Can you spare any change please?”

Yet, somehow, he is invisible.

People walk on by and in a moment, he is forgotten. It seems too that the government target to end rough sleeping by 2024 has vanished and is, too, forgotten.

A report today by the Kerslake Commission says the opposite is happening, rough sleeping is on the rise, up 26% on last year. It says clearly: “The government won’t meet its target.”

The panel says this is because “unresolved systemic issues have left the country exposed to rising homelessness”.

It calls for “urgent action to address the rapidly rising rates of homelessness and rough sleeping”.

The study says many of the problems stem from a severe shortage of affordable housing and a lack of appropriate support services. This, combined with the cost of living crisis, is pushing more people into homelessness.

When asked about the report Rachel Maclean, the housing minister, insisted ending homelessness “remains a priority”.

She told Sky News the government stands by its pledge to end rough sleeping by 2024.

“It’s something that we said multiple times, and backed with government funding,” she said.

From a hostel to Hammersmith flyover

Sky News has followed Ian Harrison’s progress since the pandemic when he was living in a hostel. Now he is back out on the streets surviving in make-shift homes using pallets and cardboard boxes constructed under the Hammersmith Flyover in west London.

Like many rough sleepers across the country, the 33-year-old is struggling with a range of issues, such as mental health problems and drug addiction that have been exacerbated by street life.

He has tried and failed to change his fortunes. In the spring of this year, he managed to get a job at McDonald’s in Skegness and held it for three months before falling out of employment and getting a ticket back to London.

For those four months he says he was clean from the drugs, but being back on the streets means he is also back on heroin and crack.

He says: “It’s pointless trying to stay away from it when you are on the streets – you know it’s on the streets. It’s a part of street life.”

Ian scores some crack cocaine from a dealer and smokes it during the time Sky News is with him. Asked what would get him off it, he says: “Getting in somewhere – meeting the right people. I want to get a job and stuff. I just want a job and a normal life but it’s hard to get.”

A revolving door existence

Ian’s mental health problems and chaotic lifestyle stem from childhood trauma, which if addressed earlier may have transformed his life and saved the taxpayer the cost of his revolving door existence between mental health inpatient services and life on the streets.

During COVID, the “Everyone In” policy rapidly reduced the number of rough sleepers, and the Kerslake Commission was set up to learn the lessons. It suggests three main strategies to end rough sleeping.

Firstly, preventing people from getting to the brink of homelessness. Secondly, ensuring no one needs to arrive on the streets to get help, and thirdly that everyone should have a route out of rough sleeping.

The commission is “urgently calling on the government to increase housing benefit so that it covers local affordable rents”.

During Sky’s time with Ian, we called StreetLink which is a helpline run by St Mungo’s for rough sleepers or concerned members of the public. The service is designed to connect homeless people with local services and accommodation.

However, Ian warned that we wouldn’t be able to speak to anyone and it turned out we were on hold for over an hour before an operator replied – something you wouldn’t expect a homeless person with limited phone credit to be able to hold on for.

Ian was later put in touch with an outreach worker, but weeks later remained on the streets.

A chronic shortage of housing

StreetLink says: “Since its launch in 2012, StreetLink has successfully managed over 500,000 alerts, connecting thousands of people with the support and accommodation they need to end their rough sleeping.

“The team works hard under tight resources to make sure every alert and contact with the public is managed efficiently and sensitively to ensure that people who are sleeping rough receive swift support.”

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St Mungo’s chief executive, Emma Haddad, who was on the panel of the Kerslake report, said of its findings: “The chronic shortage of affordable housing and appropriate support services means we are just responding to people already in crisis rather than preventing them from reaching that point in the first place.

“The recommendations give a clear set of actions to both the current government and the next administration that would make a big difference to tackling rough sleeping and homelessness.

“We made so much progress on rough sleeping during the pandemic, which clearly demonstrated what can be done when we work together with a shared purpose and dedicated funding. It’s time we applied the same energy to stop this homelessness and rough sleeping crisis spiralling further.”

Bob Kerslake died in July 2023 and the report is a tribute to him and his life’s work.

The Kerslake family said: “After over 40 years as a public servant, many of which were spent on delivering quality homes and environments, Bob was saddened and dismayed by the rise of homelessness across our country. He was proud to chair the commission and totally committed to its findings. He would have been vociferous in publishing its conclusions and recommendations.”

What the government says

A spokesman for the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said it remained focused on ending rough sleeping: “[We] are spending £2bn to tackle homelessness and rough sleeping in the areas that need it most.

“We are making significant progress with over 640,000 households prevented from becoming homeless or supported into settled accommodation since 2018.

“We would like to pay tribute to Lord Bob Kerslake for his life’s work on this issue and we will continue to work with the commission to end rough sleeping for good.”