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Meta’s Threads real-time messaging app is struggling to attract new users like it did during its blockbuster July debut.

The Twitter clone now ranks near the bottom of the most popular social media platforms, ahead of only Tumblr, as measured by the number of U.S. users, according to Insider Intelligence’s first Threads forecast, published Tuesday.

Insider Intelligence said it expects Threads to have 23.7 million U.S. users in 2023, far behind Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, which have 177.9 million, 135.2 million and 102.3 million users, respectively. Its closest rival, X, will have 56.1 million U.S. users in 2023, the forecast said, which means that Threads will have less than half of the U.S. user base of the messaging app formerly known as Twitter.

For the U.S. market, the analyst firm said Threads will continue to “rank second-to-last among social networks” through 2025.

Meta did not respond to a request for comment.

The new forecast joins a growing list of third-party estimates from mobile analytics firms such as Sensor Tower and Similarweb that have recently documented declining usage of Threads.

When Threads debuted, it rapidly gained millions of users due in part to its easy sign-up process for existing Instagram users. The messaging app also benefited by being a mainstream alternative to X, which several analyst firms including Insider Intelligence have said is losing users amid the ownership of Tesla chief Elon Musk.

“Threads received an initial boost from Twitter’s missteps, but it can’t rely on X defectors to continue to grow,” Insider Intelligence principal analyst Jasmine Enberg said in a statement.

If Musk decides to charge all X users a monthly subscription fee, as he said during a recently livestreamed talk with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Meta could have a “clearer avenue to monetize Threads,” Enberg said.

“Assuming Musk doesn’t backtrack, the move will likely alienate more X users and potentially increase advertiser interest in Threads,” Enberg added.

Still, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has previously said that the company has no plans to monetize Threads until it’s bigger and more established.

The social networking giant has been releasing several new features for Threads intended to make it more compelling, such as a desktop version and a search tool. Indeed, both advertisers and creators have previously told CNBC that Threads needs certain features such as analytics tools to become a more robust platform that they will invest time and money into.

Enberg said Threads needs to establish an identity that’s “more than an extension of Instagram or an alternative to X” in order to become a major player in the social media market.

“TikTok was able to break through largely because it offered users a unique new social experience,” Enberg said, referring to the ByteDance-owned short-video app’s rise to prominence.

Watch: Are the Threads unraveling?

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E-commerce firm Shopee agreed to adjust its practices in Indonesia after watchdog says it violated competition law

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E-commerce firm Shopee agreed to adjust its practices in Indonesia after watchdog says it violated competition law

BRAZIL – 2022/03/22: In this photo illustration, a woman’s silhouette holds a smartphone with a Shopee logo in the background. (Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Rafael Henrique | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Shopee and its courier service Shopee Express agreed to adjust its current practices after admitting to breaching a competition rule in Indonesia, the country’s watchdog said on Wednesday.

Shopee is the e-commerce arm of Southeast Asian tech giant Sea Limited.

“Shopee and Shopee Express admitted that they had violated Law no. 5 of 1999, regarding delivery (courier) services on the Shopee platform by agreeing to various behavioral change points determined by the KPPU Council in the hearing yesterday,” Indonesia Competition Commission Komisi Pengawas Persaingan Usaha said in a Google-translated statement.

KPPU said Shopee proposed adjustments to its current practices on June 20 which were approved by the commission council.

“Shopee Indonesia attended a meeting with KPPU on 25 June to discuss points of the integrity pact that was shared by KPPU last week. On 20 June, Shopee proposed changes to our user interface to enhance our services and demonstrate our compliance in providing the best services to our users, in accordance with the feedback provided and approved by the KPPU,” Radynal Nataprawira, head of public affairs at Shopee Indonesia, told CNBC in emailed comments.

“Shopee is always committed to complying with all applicable regulations and laws in the Republic of Indonesia in conducting our business operations,” said Nataprawira.

Last month, KPPU revealed its preliminary investigation found that Shopee allegedly prioritized Shopee Express in every package delivery to consumers.

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The watchdog also accused Shopee of “discriminatory behavior,” saying Shopee Express and another delivery service J&T Express were “automatically activated en masse on the seller dashboard” while other companies that also have good service performance did not get selected automatically.

KPPU investigators also named an employee who held director positions in both Shopee Indonesia and Shopee Express, saying this “dual position” has the ability to influence competition and control the behavior of both companies.

KPPU is also probing Shopee rival Lazada, the Southeast Asian e-commerce arm of Chinese tech giant Alibaba, saying it has found indications of similar violations.

“If it is later proven to have violated, Lazada can be subject to a fine of a maximum of 50% of the net profit or 10% of the total sales it earned in the relevant market during the period of the violation,” KPPU said in a statement last month.

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Europe is at risk of over-restricting AI and falling behind U.S. and China, Dutch prince says  

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Europe is at risk of over-restricting AI and falling behind U.S. and China, Dutch prince says  

Prince Constantijn is special envoy to Techleap, a Dutch startup accelerator.

Patrick Van Katwijk | Getty Images

AMSTERDAM — Europe is at risk of falling behind the U.S. and China on artificial intelligence as it focuses on regulating the technology, according to Prince Constantijn of the Netherlands.

“Our ambition seems to be limited to being good regulators,” Constantijn told CNBC in an interview on the sidelines of the Money 20/20 fintech conference in Amsterdam earlier this month.

Prince Constantijn is the third and youngest son of former Dutch Queen Beatrix and the younger brother of reigning Dutch King Willem-Alexander.

He is special envoy of the Dutch startup accelerator Techleap, where he works to help local startups grow fast internationally by improving their access to capital, market, talent, and technologies.

“We’ve seen this in the data space [with GDPR], we’ve seen this now in the platform space, and now with the AI space,” Constantijn added.

European Union regulators have taken a tough approach to artificial intelligence, with formal regulations limiting how developers and companies can apply the technology in certain scenarios.

The bloc gave final approval to the EU AI Act, a ground-breaking AI law, last month.

Officials are concerned by how quickly the technology is advancing and risks it poses around jobs displacement, privacy, and algorithmic bias.

The law takes a risk-based approach to artificial intelligence, meaning that different applications of the tech are treated differently depending on their risk level.

For generative AI applications, the EU AI Act sets out clear transparency requirements and copyright rules.

All generative AI systems would have to make it possible to prevent illegal output, to disclose if content is produced by AI and to publish summaries of the copyrighted data used for training purposes.

But the EU’s Ai Act requires even stricter scrutiny for high-impact, general-purpose AI models that could pose “systemic risk,” such as OpenAI’s GPT-4 — including thorough evaluations and compulsory reporting of any “serious incidents.”

Prince Constantijn said he’s “really concerned” that the Europe’s focus has been more on regulating AI than trying to become a leader innovating in the space.

“It’s good to have guardrails. We want to bring clarity to the market, predictability and all that,” he told CNBC earlier this month on the sidelines of Money 20/20. “But it’s very hard to do that in such a fast-moving space.”

“There are big risks in getting it wrong, and like we’ve seen in genetically modified organisms, it hasn’t stopped the development. It just stopped Europe developing it, and now we are consumers of the product, rather than producers able to influence the market as it develops.”

Between 1994 and 2004, the EU had imposed an effective moratorium on new approvals of genetically modified crops over perceived health risks associated with them.

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The bloc subsequently developed strict rules for GMOs, citing a need to protect citizens’ health and the environment. The U.S. National Academies of Sciences says that genetically modified crops are safe for both human consumption and the environment.

Constantijn added that Europe is making it “quite hard” for itself to innovate in AI due to “big restrictions on data,” particularly when it comes to sectors like health and medical science.

In addition, the U.S. market is “a much bigger and unified market” with more free-flowing capital, Constantijn said. On these points he added, “Europe scores quite poorly.”

“Where we score well is, I think, on talent,” he said. “We score well on technology itself.”

Plus, when it comes to developing applications that use AI, “Europe is definitely going to be competitive,” Constantijn noted. He nevertheless added that “the underlying data infrastructure and IT infrastructure is something we’ll keep depending on large platforms to provide.”

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Waymo opens robotaxi service to all San Francisco users

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Waymo opens robotaxi service to all San Francisco users

A Waymo rider-only robotaxi is seen during a test ride in San Francisco on Dec. 9, 2022.

Paresh Dave | Reuters

Waymo robotaxis are now open to all users in San Francisco, expanding the self-driving ride-hailing service, which has been available in the city to a limited number of riders.

In a blog post on Tuesday, Waymo said nearly 300,000 people have signed up for the service, called Waymo One, since the Alphabet-owned company opened its waitlist. The company began commercial passenger operations in August after a period of testing.

“We’re committed to growing our service gradually and responsibly,” Waymo said in the post. “We work closely with city and state officials, first responders, and advocates for road safety to ensure our service helps local communities gain access to reliable, safe, environmentally friendly transportation and has a positive impact on mobility.”

It is the second citywide rollout for Waymo, following Phoenix in 2020. Waymo One also operates in limited capacity in Los Angeles and Austin, Texas. As of February, the company had approximately 700 vehicles in the Waymo One fleet, including about 300 cars as part of its San Francisco service.

Driverless vehicles have faced some public backlash in recent months following collisions and other accidents. In October, General Motors’ Cruise autonomous vehicle unit paused all driverless operations after collisions led to investigations and a suspension of its licenses in California.

However, Waymo has experienced less controversy. The company has a large public affairs operation and communicates closely with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and local first responders.

In total, the 15-year-old project, which became Waymo in 2016, has driven about 20 million fully autonomous miles and nearly two million paid ride-hail trips, Waymo said. The company said it has logged 3.8 million rider-only miles in San Francisco as of the end of March.  

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