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Meta’s Threads real-time messaging app is struggling to attract new users like it did during its blockbuster July debut.

The Twitter clone now ranks near the bottom of the most popular social media platforms, ahead of only Tumblr, as measured by the number of U.S. users, according to Insider Intelligence’s first Threads forecast, published Tuesday.

Insider Intelligence said it expects Threads to have 23.7 million U.S. users in 2023, far behind Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, which have 177.9 million, 135.2 million and 102.3 million users, respectively. Its closest rival, X, will have 56.1 million U.S. users in 2023, the forecast said, which means that Threads will have less than half of the U.S. user base of the messaging app formerly known as Twitter.

For the U.S. market, the analyst firm said Threads will continue to “rank second-to-last among social networks” through 2025.

Meta did not respond to a request for comment.

The new forecast joins a growing list of third-party estimates from mobile analytics firms such as Sensor Tower and Similarweb that have recently documented declining usage of Threads.

When Threads debuted, it rapidly gained millions of users due in part to its easy sign-up process for existing Instagram users. The messaging app also benefited by being a mainstream alternative to X, which several analyst firms including Insider Intelligence have said is losing users amid the ownership of Tesla chief Elon Musk.

“Threads received an initial boost from Twitter’s missteps, but it can’t rely on X defectors to continue to grow,” Insider Intelligence principal analyst Jasmine Enberg said in a statement.

If Musk decides to charge all X users a monthly subscription fee, as he said during a recently livestreamed talk with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Meta could have a “clearer avenue to monetize Threads,” Enberg said.

“Assuming Musk doesn’t backtrack, the move will likely alienate more X users and potentially increase advertiser interest in Threads,” Enberg added.

Still, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has previously said that the company has no plans to monetize Threads until it’s bigger and more established.

The social networking giant has been releasing several new features for Threads intended to make it more compelling, such as a desktop version and a search tool. Indeed, both advertisers and creators have previously told CNBC that Threads needs certain features such as analytics tools to become a more robust platform that they will invest time and money into.

Enberg said Threads needs to establish an identity that’s “more than an extension of Instagram or an alternative to X” in order to become a major player in the social media market.

“TikTok was able to break through largely because it offered users a unique new social experience,” Enberg said, referring to the ByteDance-owned short-video app’s rise to prominence.

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Are the Threads unraveling? Meta looks into 'hooks' to keep users on Twitter rival

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Advisors ‘wary’ of bitcoin ETFs are on a slow adoption journey, says BlackRock exec

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Advisors ‘wary’ of bitcoin ETFs are on a slow adoption journey, says BlackRock exec

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The long-awaited bitcoin exchange traded funds launched in January, and financial advisors are on their way – though gradually – toward adopting them, according to BlackRock’s Samara Cohen.

For now, about 80% of bitcoin ETF purchases have likely been coming from “self-directed investors who have made their own allocation, often through an online brokerage account,” she said, speaking at the Coinbase State of Crypto Summit in New York City on Thursday. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was among the funds to debut earlier this year.

Cohen, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of ETF and index investments, noted that hedge funds and brokerages have also been buyers, based on last quarter’s 13-F filings, but registered investment advisors have been a little more “wary.”

CNBC recently polled its Advisor Council about why they and their colleagues are so cautious about the new products, which represent a regulated and familiar investment product for a new asset class that has garnered significant interest in recent years. Responses ranged from bitcoin’s notorious price volatility to the flagship cryptocurrency being too nascent to have established a significant track record. Regulatory compliance and the crypto’s reputation for fraud and scandal were also on advisors’ minds.

“I would call them wary … that’s their job,” Cohen said of the skeptical financial advisors.

“An investment advisor is a fiduciary to their clients,” she added. “This is an asset class that has had 90% price volatility at times in history, and their job is really to construct portfolios and do the risk analysis and due diligence. They’re doing that right now.”

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The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in 2024

“This is a moment, in terms of really putting forward important data, risk analytics [and determining] the role bitcoin can play in a portfolio, what sort of allocation is appropriate given an investor’s risk tolerance, their liquidity needs,” she added. “That’s what an advisor is supposed to do, so I think this journey that we’re on is exactly the right one and they’re doing their jobs.”

Cohen said she sees bitcoin ETFs as a bridge between crypto and traditional finance – particularly for investors who may be interested in making an allocation to bitcoin without having to manage their risk across two different ecosystems. Before the ETFs, the existing onramps into crypto were insufficient for what some investors wanted to do, she said.

Coinbase chief financial officer Alesia Haas said bitcoin is “on a slow journey of adoption” – a theme echoed across the conference sessions.

Blue Macellari, head of digital assets strategy for T. Rowe Price, pointed to the 1% allocation that some investors deem to be a safe, comfortable amount. She said she sees portfolio allocations into bitcoin as binary events, where they should be greater than 1% or zero, but she also acknowledged the cautious approach toward adoption.

“There’s a psychological component where people need to test the waters and get comfortable,” Macellari said. “It’s a paradigm shift … it takes time for people to ease their way into it.”

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Adobe shares surge 15% for sharpest rally since 2020

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Adobe shares surge 15% for sharpest rally since 2020

Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen speaks during an interview with CNBC on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 20, 2024.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Adobe shares surged 15% on Friday, the biggest gain since March 2020, after the software maker reported earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ estimates.

After the bell on Thursday, Adobe reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.48, topping the LSEG consensus estimate of $4.39 per share. Revenue increased 10% from a year earlier to $5.31 billion, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $5.29 billion.

CEO Shantanu Narayen attributed Adobe’s record revenue to its strong growth across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud and its advancements in artificial intelligence.

“Our highly differentiated approach to AI and innovative product delivery are attracting an expanding universe of customers and providing more value to existing users,” Narayen said in a press release on Thursday.

New annualized recurring revenue for the Digital Media business, which includes Creative Cloud subscriptions, came in at $487 million, beating the StreetAccount consensus of $437.4 million.

Adobe’s results provide a contrast to what software investors have seen from many industry peers of late. Salesforce shares suffered their worst plunge since 2004 late last month after the cloud software vendor posted weaker-than-expected revenue and issued disappointing guidance. That same week, MongoDB, SentinelOneUiPath and Veeva all pulled down their full-year revenue forecasts.

However, there were positive signs in the sector this week. Oracle shares rallied after the database company announced cloud deals with Google and OpenAI, even as fourth-quarter results fell short of Wall Street expectations. CrowdStrike jumped on Monday following the announcement after the close last Friday that the cybersecurity company would be added to the S&P 500.

JMP analysts, who have the equivalent of a hold rating on Adobe, wrote in a note after the earnings report that the company’s results were uplifting despite a challenging economic environment and increased competition in design software.

“We like how Adobe is integrating AI functionality across its product portfolio,” the analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, analysts from Piper Sandler raised their revenue estimates slightly by $73 million for fiscal 2024 and by $71 million for 2025. 

“Customer reactions to recent innovations were encouraging, as increasing availability of AI-powered solutions are expected to drive further user acquisition” and better average revenue per user, wrote the Piper Sandler analysts, who recommend buying the stock.

Even after Friday’s rally, Adobe shares remain down 12% for the year. The stock closed at $525.31.

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Google-backed Tempus AI pops by as much as 15% in Nasdaq stock market debut

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Google-backed Tempus AI pops by as much as 15% in Nasdaq stock market debut

Tempus AI CEO Eric Lefkofsky on going public: It's been an incredible journey

Tempus AI, a health-care diagnostics company that uses AI to interpret medical tests to help physicians provide more accurate treatment for their patients, rose by as much as 15% in its Nasdaq Stock Market trading debut on Friday, after going public under the ticker symbol “TEM.”

Tempus AI priced 11.1 million shares at $37 apiece on Thursday, at the top of its initial $35 to $37 target range. The company raised $410 million at an implied valuation of just over $6 billion. Its early gains, if they hold, would place the company at a valuation of roughly $7 billion.

Tempus believes that AI can help guide therapy selection and treatment decisions, in conjunction with the patient’s doctor. It generated total revenue of $531.8 million in 2023 and a net loss of $214.1 million.

“We’re on a really good trajectory,” Tempus AI CEO Eric Lefkofsky said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Friday morning before shares started trading. “As revenues have been growing quickly, we’re not investing all that gross profit dollar growth back into the business. We’re generating improved leverage every quarter,” he said, adding that he expects the company to be both cash flow and EBITDA positive within the next year.

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Tempus AI is applying some of the most heavily-funded technology concepts — artificial intelligence and data analysis — to building a better, more informed medical profession. The lack of diagnostic testing early in the Covid-19 outbreak was an example of how a system as mature as our health-care infrastructure can still be unprepared for the future.

The Chicago-based company said in its IPO filing, “we endeavor to unlock the true power of precision medicine by creating Intelligent Diagnostics through the practical application of artificial intelligence, or AI, in healthcare. Intelligent Diagnostics use AI, including generative AI, to make laboratory tests more accurate, tailored, and personal. We make tests intelligent by connecting laboratory results to a patient’s own clinical data, thereby personalizing the results.” 

The two-time CNBC Disruptor 50 company’s at-home testing kit was quickly rolled out during the pandemic, but the problem Tempus is attacking is not Covid-specific. The Tempus idea came to Lefkofsky, also known for co-founding Groupon, during frustration with the health-care system after his wife received a breast cancer diagnosis. Oncology is a primary focus and the company’s genomic tests are designed to understand tumors at the molecular level and tailor treatment to individuals.

Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Allen & Company were the lead underwriters for Tempus AI’s offering.

Investors include Google, Baillie Gifford, Franklin Templeton, NEA and T. Rowe Price, according to PitchBook data.

— CNBC’s Bob Pisani contributed to this reporting.

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