US gov’t messed up my $250K Bitcoin price prediction: Tim Draper, Hall of Flame
Tim Draper is a prominent venture capitalist, the founder of Draper University and the creator of the Meet The Drapers television series. He invested early in Tesla, SpaceX and Coinbase and has 254,000 followers on X.
“Let me get my second prediction to actually happen, and then we’ll move on to other predictions,” Tim Draper tells Hall of Flame, refusing to be drawn on price predictions for XRP and Ethereum.
This makes sense, given it’s been six years since he forecast that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by 2022.
Spoiler alert: It didn’t.
Which is not to say it won’t happen eventually, as Draper has been pretty far-sighted in the past.
Back in 2014, Draper scooped up around 30,000 Bitcoin for $19 million after the U.S. Marshals took down Silk Road. Fast forward to today, and those Bitcoin have increased 4,165% in value to be worth a whopping $810.5 million.
Around the same time, he made a prediction that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 in three years, and lo and behold, it hit that mark in 2017.
Draper explains that he only dropped the $250,000 prediction because people kept asking after he totally nailed his first Bitcoin price guess.
“The only reason I’ve given the second prediction was that the first one was so good. I had a lot of pressure to put another one out there,” Draper declares.
He has politely requested a deadline extension on Bitcoin reaching a quarter of a million, with a timeline that would give a university lecturer a heart attack.
“Give me until the end of June next year,” he says.
Draper accuses the U.S. government of messing up his price prediction. He had expected the growth of blockchain to be reminiscent of the internet era, similar to when he made his earlier investments in companies like Hotmail and Skype.
He emphasizes the significant benefit that the United States reaped by maintaining a hands-off approach to overregulating the internet.
“I expected a much more light touch, the way Bill Clinton was with the internet; they said, hey, we got the internet! We regulated the internet, and Bill Clinton smartly left it alone, and it was fantastic for the whole world.”
Investing Alpha
Despite the media coverage, Draper doesn’t spend his days making predictions; in fact, his schedule is quite packed.
At 65 years old, he remains highly active, renowned as a serial investor who chucked cash early in companies like Tesla, SpaceX, Coinbase, and, well … Theranos.
He enjoys playing basketball because it energizes him and puts him in an investment mindset.
“When I play basketball, I’m thinking about how I can get the defender to move one way, and then I’ll move another,” he explains.
Draper claims he possesses alpha instincts both on the basketball court and in the investment world.
“I’m very aggressive; if I see something I like, I go right after it,” he says.
“I guess as an investor, I invest like a chess move because I’m always evaluating not just the entrepreneur or the idea. But what happens if it’s successful? how great could it be? What does the world look like then?”
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What led to Twitter Fame?
Draper started with a very modest Twitter following.
“I think I had one Twitter follower, and it was my mother,” he jokes.
While you might assume that one of Draper’s investments or media appearances helped his following to skyrocket, he describes his growth as very natural, attributing it to the content he has been consistently posting over the years, which has kept people coming back for more.
He is proud of how “truly organic” his following is.
“I think I have the most steady increase of Twitter followers of any influencer,” he declares.
What type of content can people expect?
Draper isn’t here to clutter up his followers’ feeds with nonsense.
He’s all about adding a little sprinkle of value to their lives, and he sticks to only posting about three times a week.
“I tend to post where it’s something I feel like people should see or where one of my startups has done something extraordinary, and I want to promote them,” he explains.
What content does Tim Draper like?
Within the 2,400 accounts he follows on Twitter, he relies on a select group of trusted people to keep him informed about the crypto industry.
Among his trusted crew are Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen and Silicon Valley investors Brad and Bart Stephens.
Tim Draper predictions
Draper is backing his 250,000 Bitcoin prediction so hard that if it doesn’t hit, he’ll bow out of predictions altogether.
“If it’s not $250,000 or higher, then don’t listen to me ever again on that kind of prediction,” he laughs.
When questioned about the chances of a Bitcoin ETF getting approved, he doesn’t sound hopeful.
“It might have to wait for [Republican candidate] Nikki Haley to be president,” he declares.
“Maybe it’s the cushy relationship they have with banks, maybe it’s the fact that they have uncertainty about it. Maybe a lot of our government is pretty old, maybe they’re just out of touch. But they’re missing something very, very important for the good of society, and I’m hoping they all come around.”
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Rachel Reeves has hinted that taxes are likely to be raised this autumn after a major U-turn on the government’s controversial welfare bill.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill passed through the House of Commons on Tuesday after multiple concessions and threats of a major rebellion.
MPs ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to universal credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.
Initially aimed at saving £5.5bn, it now leaves the government with an estimated £5.5bn black hole – close to breaching Ms Reeves’s fiscal rules set out last year.
Read more:
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Success or failure: One year of Keir in nine charts
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Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma
In an interview with The Guardian, the chancellor did not rule out tax rises later in the year, saying there were “costs” to watering down the welfare bill.
“I’m not going to [rule out tax rises], because it would be irresponsible for a chancellor to do that,” Ms Reeves told the outlet.
“We took the decisions last year to draw a line under unfunded commitments and economic mismanagement.
“So we’ll never have to do something like that again. But there are costs to what happened.”
Meanwhile, The Times reported that, ahead of the Commons vote on the welfare bill, Ms Reeves told cabinet ministers the decision to offer concessions would mean taxes would have to be raised.
The outlet reported that the chancellor said the tax rises would be smaller than those announced in the 2024 budget, but that she is expected to have to raise tens of billions more.
It comes after Ms Reeves said she was “totally” up to continuing as chancellor after appearing tearful at Prime Minister’s Questions.
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Why was the chancellor crying at PMQs?
Criticising Sir Keir for the U-turns on benefit reform during PMQs, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the chancellor looked “absolutely miserable”, and questioned whether she would remain in post until the next election.
Sir Keir did not explicitly say that she would, and Ms Badenoch interjected to say: “How awful for the chancellor that he couldn’t confirm that she would stay in place.”
In her first comments after the incident, Ms Reeves said she was having a “tough day” before adding: “People saw I was upset, but that was yesterday.
“Today’s a new day and I’m just cracking on with the job.”
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Reeves is ‘totally’ up for the job
Sir Keir also told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby on Thursday that he “didn’t appreciate” that Ms Reeves was crying in the Commons.
“In PMQs, it is bang, bang, bang,” he said. “That’s what it was yesterday.
“And therefore, I was probably the last to appreciate anything else going on in the chamber, and that’s just a straightforward human explanation, common sense explanation.”
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