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Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen the largest set of tax rises since the Second World War, according to economic analysis.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimates that – by the time of the next general election – the tax burden will have risen to around 37% of national income.

This equates to roughly £3,500 extra per household – although the increase is not shared evenly.

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Records began in 1950 for the figures, and no parliament has seen a larger hike.

The size of the tax burden and the lack of cuts to tariffs have been the subject of the ire of many Conservatives.

The headroom for tax cuts has suffered as interest rates rose and the cost to service debt has risen. High inflation has led the government to be cautious of cutting taxes and leaving people with more cash to spend.

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Last week, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said it would be “virtually impossible” to cut taxes at the moment.

“I really, really wish it was true but unfortunately, it just isn’t,” he told LBC.

“If you look at what we are having to pay for our long-term debt, it is higher now than it was at the spring budget.

“I wish it wasn’t, it makes life extremely difficult, it makes tax cuts virtually impossible, and it means that I will have another set of frankly very difficult decisions.

“All I would say is, if we do want those long-term debt costs to come down, then we need to really stick to this plan to get inflation down, get interest rates down.

“I don’t know when that’s going to happen. But I don’t think it’s going to happen before the autumn statement on November 22, alas.”

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There will likely be pressure for Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak to cut taxes – with some eyeing up cuts to sizeable projects like HS2 as a way to free up cash, and others calling for a relaxation of inheritance tax.

The economy is an area that Mr Sunak wants to make his strength – with three of his five pledges made at the start of this year relating to them.

Ben Zaranko, senior research economist at the IFS, said the pandemic could not be blamed for rising tax levels and predicted a high-tax approach was here to stay regardless of who wins the next general election.

“It is inconceivable that this parliament will turn out to be anything other than a tax-raising one – and it looks nailed on to be the biggest tax-raising parliament since at least the Second World War,” he said.

“This is not, for the most part, a direct consequence of the pandemic. Rather, it reflects decisions to increase government spending, in part driven by demographic change, pressures on the health service, and some unwinding of austerity.

“It is likely that this parliament will mark a decisive and permanent shift to a higher-tax economy.”

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‘The plan is working’

This was echoed by Mark Franks, the director of welfare at the Nuffield Foundation.

He said: “There will be strong pressure in coming parliaments to raise taxes further to meet growing demand for public services such as healthcare.

“Future governments must not only have a credible and robust strategy for the economy and the public finances, but should also be forthright and transparent about the difficult trade-offs they will face.”

Opposition parties seized on the findings, as Labour said that the Tories had “clobbered” the public.

Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said: “Successive Tory governments have overseen 13 years of low growth and stagnant wages. Their response in the face of this bankrupt legacy is always to load their failure onto working people. And what are we getting back? Crumbling public services.

“Brits are working hard but getting clobbered with 25 Tory tax rises and a continuing Conservative premium on their household budgets.”

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A Treasury spokesperson said: “Despite needing to take the difficult decisions to restore public finances in the face of the dual shocks of the pandemic and Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the latest data shows our tax burden will remain lower than any major European economy.

“Driving down inflation is the most effective tax cut we can deliver right now, which is why we are sticking to our plan to halve it, rather than making it worse by borrowing money to fund tax cuts.

“We have also taken 3 million people out of paying tax altogether since 2010 through raising personal thresholds, and the chancellor has said he wants to lower the tax burden further – but has been clear that sound money must come first.”

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Poll shows crypto-focused candidates could sway voters in US midterms

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Poll shows crypto-focused candidates could sway voters in US midterms

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With more than a year until US elections to determine control of Congress, a new poll suggested some crypto-minded Democratic voters could be swayed to vote Republican.

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Starmer gets carnival welcome in India – but UK business leaders paint challenging picture back home

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Starmer gets carnival welcome in India - but UK business leaders paint challenging picture back home

It is not hard to see why Sir Keir Starmer ends up doing quite so many foreign trips.

On the road to Mumbai, India, from the airport there were giant pictures of the British prime minister looming over the sealed-off roads cleared for his special VIP convoy.

There was nothing short of a carnival along the roadside to greet the cars.

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Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to an FA Premier League training facility in Mumbai.  Pic: PA
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Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to an FA Premier League training facility in Mumbai. Pic: PA

People who knew nothing about Sir Keir – and were happy to admit so to me – dressed up for the occasion in plumes of feathers and chicken costumes and danced to music. The Labour conference does not come close to that.

This trip has a big first – 125 blue chip business leaders, more than any business delegation in history – are here. The enthusiasm to take advantage of the signed, though not completed, free trade deal is clear.

“I think the importance of this trip is reflected by the huge British delegation we’ve got here today,” said Shevaun Haviland, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce.

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“A hundred and twenty five businesses, biggest UK names Beattie, BP, British Airways, Diageo, Virgin, huge businesses all the way through to incredible AI and energy start-ups from around the UK.”

But business leaders have been clear to me that they haven’t simply joined the delegation to further their activities in India. They want to raise their profile with the prime minister, in order to ensure their voice is heard when it needs to be by the government.

Sir Keir Starmer at a Diwali ceremony in Mumbai. Pic: PA
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Sir Keir Starmer at a Diwali ceremony in Mumbai. Pic: PA

And the picture some paint of life back in the UK is more challenging. CEO of leading architecture firm Benoy, Tom Cartledge, said how 10 to 15 years ago their business was 90% UK activity, and now it is 90% overseas. He said markets like India are important in part because the UK environment is challenging.

“We’re having to go and find new markets because what we do is design big projects, infrastructure, real estate towers, residential, retail,” he told me.

He went on: “There really is a perception of overseas markets that we are sluggish, low productivity, high tax rates. And that does nothing for the confidence. And in fact, I spoke to an Indian client this morning who said that they are relocating from the head offices to Dubai, because the perception is it’s going to get harder, it’s going to get tougher in the UK and we just do not need that.”

It is rare for business figures on a PM delegation to speak so openly.

The PM visits a Premier league youth training facility with ex-England footballer Michael Owen. Pic: PA
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The PM visits a Premier league youth training facility with ex-England footballer Michael Owen. Pic: PA

Ms Haviland told me that business figures are using this trip to pass a message to the prime minister.

“We want to see no more tax for business,” she told me, saying that’s the message being conveyed right now in India. I asked what they say back? “They hear us,” she replied. “I think we’ll have to wait and see.”

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Another important voice is Rohan Malik, managing partner of EY. He says there’s an optimistic case for the UK over the medium term but suggested short-term challenges for the government.

“No one likes taxes, but at the same time, they are a necessary way for the government to balance the books.

“If I take a five or seven-year view, I feel more optimistic about the future, because I do think some short-term pain will lead to some long-term gains.”

Does he think the business community could bear paying a bit more?

“I think it’s going to be tricky for the chancellor,” he said.

“I don’t envy her position at all to be looking at different, but she’s got other of disposal businesses, but not like more taxation. At the same time, we have to be prepared to understand how do we try and contribute more towards economic growth?”

The candour is not something I can remember from business delegations in the past. That’s a response to the nervousness about a £20bn-£30bn black hole Chancellor Rachel Reeves will have to fill in the November budget. Overall the delegates remain on side – for now.

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