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The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ analysis that the UK’s tax burden is the largest since the Second World War puts into historical context what has been clear since Boris Johnson became prime minister.

Taxes have been rising sharply, either by stealth or declared policy, to keep up with election promises and demand for public services starved of investment during the previous decade.

Calculated as a share of GDP the tax take will have risen to 37% by the next election, a 4% increase since 2019 and a figure not seen since the 1940s.

By international standards, the UK taxpayer is not particularly heavily burdened. In Europe we pay more tax than Swiss and Irish citizens, but far less than the Germans, French and Scandinavian nations.

But historically this is a high, a reflection perhaps of the demands of an electorate that routinely says it wants to pay less tax (who doesn’t) but also wants high levels of public service.

While every one of the five Conservative chancellors since 2019 has consistently said they want to cut taxes they have done the opposite (with the exception of Kwasi Kwarteng, who was sacked and saw his plans abandoned three weeks after making them).

Increased government spending

The demands of tackling COVID-19 and the decision to bail out every household in Britain during the energy crisis have not helped keep a lid on spending and motivated some tax rises, but they are not, the IFS say, the largest drivers.

Rather it has been meeting pledges to spend more on the NHS, increase the number of police officers and so on, that have driven the tax take ever higher.

Rishi Sunak instituted many of the most significant while chancellor, and has rubber-stamped several more as prime minister. Corporation tax was increased from 19% to 25% this year, a measure announced by Sunak in 2021.

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‘Pandemic is to blame’

He was also responsible for the “stealth” element of our rising tax bills, the freezing of the thresholds for tax and National Insurance – the level at which we pay the various rates, which usually rise in line with inflation.

Wage inflation means many more people have been dragged into higher tax brackets, raising around £40bn for the exchequer, almost double the headline tax cuts announced at the last budget according to the IFS.

Windfall taxes on energy companies complete the set of measures that will amount to £100bn more in tax receipts than had the burden remained at the pre-2019 level of 33%.

The increases are also in large part a corrective to the austerity policies of David Cameron and George Osbourne, during which the UK tax take grew far less than in comparable economies also adjusting to the aftermath of the financial crash.

Given the IFS measures the tax burden as a percentage of GDP, delivering growth would be a way of cutting the tax burden.

That was Liz Truss’ plan, though the execution crashed the bond market and international confidence in the UK.

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Some good news

There was a sliver of a glimmer of good news on that front with the ONS upgrading GDP in the first quarter of this year, and all of 2022 by… 0.2%.

The current Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the revision “proved the doubters wrong” but while it is of course welcome, it’s not enough to change the overarching narrative of stagnant economic progress in the last decade.

Even if growth were revised upwards by 2% next year, the IFS says it would still leave the tax burden at 36.6%, an increase of 3.5%, still the largest since the 1940s.

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Customers of five water firms are facing higher than expected hikes to bills

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Customers of five water firms are facing higher than expected hikes to bills

Customers of five water firms are facing higher than expected rises to their inflation-busting bills after the companies disputed limits imposed by the industry regulator.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) was called in to review Ofwat’s determinations on what Anglian Water, Northumbrian Water, South East Water, Southern Water, and Wessex Water could charge customers from 2025-30.

The CMA’s panel said on Thursday: “The group has provisionally decided to allow 21% – an additional £556m in revenue – of the total £2.7bn the five firms requested.

“This extra funding is expected to result in an average increase of 3% in bills for customers of the disputing companies, which is in addition to the 24% increase for customers of these companies expected as part of Ofwat’s original determination.”

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The decision showed that Wessex household and business customers faced the largest increase – on top of the rise agreed by Ofwat – of 5%, leaving their average annual bills at £622.

South East and Southern customers will see rises of 4% and 3% respectively while Anglian and Northumbrian’s are set to soak up the lowest percentage increase of just 1%.

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South East had sought the biggest increase – 18% on top of the 18% hike it had been granted over the five-year period.

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July: Water regulator Ofwat to be scrapped

The companies exercised their right to an appeal after Ofwat released its final determinations on what they could charge at the end of last year.

They essentially argued that they could not meet their regulatory requirements under the controls amid a rush to bolster crucial infrastructure including storm drains, water pipelines and storage capacity.

Crisis-hit Thames Water was initially among them but it later withdrew its objection pending the outcome of ongoing efforts to secure its financial future through a change of ownership.

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Higher bills ‘part of the cost’ of water reform

Chair of the CMA’s independent panel, Kirstin Baker, said: “We’ve found that water companies’ requests for significant bill increases, on top of those allowed by Ofwat, are largely unjustified.

“We understand the real pressure on household budgets and have worked to keep increases to a minimum, while still ensuring there is funding to deliver essential improvements at reasonable cost.”

Ofwat, which has faced industry criticism in the past for an emphasis on keeping bills low at the expense of investment, is set to be replaced by a new super regulator under plans confirmed in the summer.

It has faced outrage on many fronts, especially over sewage spills, and allowing rewards for failure.

Water Minister Emma Hardy said in response to the CMA’s decision: “I understand the public’s anger over bill rises – that’s why I expect every water company to offer proper support to anyone struggling to pay.

“We’ve made sure that investment cash goes into infrastructure upgrades, not bonuses, and we’re creating a tough new regulator to clean up our waterways and restore trust in the system.

“We are laser focused on helping ease the cost of living pressure on households: we’ve frozen fuel duty, raised the minimum wage and pensions and brought down mortgage rates – putting more money in people’s pockets.”

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Britain’s winter blackout risk the lowest in six years – but ‘tight’ days expected

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Britain's winter blackout risk the lowest in six years - but 'tight' days expected

Britain is at the lowest risk of a winter power blackout than at any point in the last six years, the national electricity grid operator has said.

Not since the pre-pandemic winter of 2019-2020 has the risk been so low, the National Energy System Operator (NESO) said.

It’s thanks to increased battery capacity to store and deploy excess power from windfarms, and a new subsea electricity cable to Ireland that came on stream in April.

The margins between expected demand and supply are now roughly three gas power stations greater than last year, the NESO said.

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Renewables overtake coal for first time

It also comes as Britain and the world reached new records for green power.

For the first time, renewable energy produced more of the world’s electricity than coal in the first half of 2025, while in Britain, a record 54.5% of power came from renewables like solar and wind energy in the three months to June.

More renewable power can mean lower bills, as there’s less reliance on volatile oil and gas markets, which have remained elevated after the invasion of Ukraine and the Western attempt to wean off Russian fossil fuels.

“Renewables are lowering wholesale electricity prices by up to a quarter”, said Jess Ralston, an energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank.

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In a recent winter, British coal plants were fired up to meet capacity constraints when cold weather increased demand, but still weather conditions meant lower supply, as the wind didn’t blow.

Those plants have since been decommissioned.

But it may not be all plain sailing…

There will, however, be some “tight” days, the NESO said.

On such occasions, the NESO will tell electricity suppliers to up their output.

The times Britain is most likely to experience supply constraints are in early December or mid-January, the grid operator said.

The NESO had been owned by National Grid, a public company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, but was acquired by the government for £630m in 2023.

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Man Utd and chemicals boss warns of ‘moment of reckoning’ for his industry

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Man Utd and chemicals boss warns of 'moment of reckoning' for his industry

Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the co-owner of Manchester United and head of Ineos, one of Europe’s largest chemical producers, has staged an “11th-hour intervention” in an effort to “save” the chemical industry.

Sir Jim has called on European legislators to reduce price pressures on chemical businesses, or there “won’t be a chemical industry left to save”.

“There’s, in my view, not a great deal of time left before we see a catastrophic decline in the chemical industry in Europe”, he said.

The “biggest problem” facing businesses is gas and electricity costs, with the EU needing to be “more reactive” on tariffs to protect competition, Sir Jim added.

Prices should be eased on chemical companies by reducing taxes, regulatory burdens, and bringing back free polluting permits, the Ineos chairman and chief executive said.

It comes as his company, Europe’s biggest producer of some chemicals and one of the world’s largest chemical firms, announced the loss of 60 jobs at its acetyls factory in Hull earlier this week.

Cheap imports from China were said to be behind the closure, as international competition facing lower costs has hit the sector.

What could happen?

Now is a “moment of reckoning” for Europe’s chemicals industry, which is “at a tipping point and can only be saved through urgent action”, Sir Jim said.

European chemical sector output declined significantly due to reduced price competitiveness from high energy and regulatory costs, according to research funded by Ineos and carried out by economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.

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The report said the continent’s policymakers face a “critical” decision between acting now to safeguard “this vital strategic industry or risk its irreversible decline”.

As many as 1.2 million people are directly employed by chemical businesses, with millions more supported in the supply chain and through staff spending wages, the Oxford Economics report read.

Average investment by European chemical firms was half that of US counterparts (1.5%, compared to 3%), a trend which is projected to continue, the report added.

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