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As Rishi Sunak prepares to launch his re-election pitch from the stage in Manchester this week, it’s worth remembering that this time last year, the now prime minister – and many of his supporters – were put out to pasture and didn’t even bother to turn up for the annual Tory jamboree.

Those who did looked on with widening eyes at the accelerating car crash of the Liz Truss premiership, as her mini-budget began to unravel in real time at party conference (remember the panicked decision to U-turn on cutting the top rate tax no sooner than conference kicked off), with her administration’s complete collapse coming less than three weeks later.

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Truss’ time as PM, one year on

It is a chapter of Conservative history that Rishi Sunak has sought to put right – spending his first year as PM trying to steady the ship and bring an air of competence and professionalism to government. There is no doubt that the tenor and tone of what could well be the final party conference before a general election will be a world away from the last.

But when it comes to the fundamentals, has that much changed? If you measure politics in its most brutal sense as victory at the ballot box, the answer is not much. The Conservatives were experiencing their worst polling since the last 1990s this time last year. Look at our Sky News poll tracker now, and you can see average support for the party is pretty much the same – about 26%. It’s barely shifted at all.

To make matters worse, Mr Sunak – who will look in his leader’s speech to the country to cast himself as the heir of Thatcher – goes to conference as the Conservative prime minister who is presiding over anything but a Thatcherite economy.

The tax burden is on course to rise by more in this Conservative parliament than during any other since the Second World War, according to analysis released by the Institute of Fiscal Studies on the eve of conference. It will rise from 33% of national income to 37% by next year. A record leap that sees families and businesses paying more than £100bn extra in tax by next year compared with the last election, it has left many Tory MPs in despair and angry at the Sunak approach to the economy.

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Taxes are rising to near historic highs

The Sunak message will be that, during the pandemic, he had to do things and spend public money in a way that didn’t come naturally to him. He will argue he is a Thatcherite in both his personal work ethic and philosophy – an instinctive tax cutter and small-state Conservative, but is doing the hard work now – growing the economy, halving inflation – to reap the rewards later.

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But his detractors are quietly fulminating. As one put it to me this week: “This heir to Thatcher business, it’s concocted vacuous stuff he’s come up with – ‘she grew up in a small shop, I [Sunak] grew up in a pharmacy’. Why didn’t he do that last year in a leadership campaign?”

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Truss ‘tried to fatten and slaughter the pig’

And if the message is stick to the plan and reap the rewards, there are some who have missed the memo. Divisions will surface on “economy day” as Liz Truss, Dame Priti Patel and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg appear at the Great British Growth rally on Monday.

“The tax burden is now a 70-year high. That is unsustainable. And the people that pay the taxes are hard pressed Brits around the country,” former home secretary Dame Priti Patel told GB News on Friday as she insisted taxes had to come down. “As Conservatives, we believe in lower taxes. As Conservatives, we believe being on the side of hard-working households and families. As Conservatives, we believe in hope and aspiration.”

Poor polling and anxiety over the tax burden make for a tricky backdrop. Team Rishi insist that they can turn it around in the coming months, and the contour of that plan is taking shape.

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‘Not right to impose costs on people’

On net zero, the PM is trying to drill dividing lines between the Conservatives and Labour over environmental policies. He will use conference to position himself on the side of the motorist as he looks to further mine the advantage he gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.

The fanning of the immigration flames – with Home Secretary Suella Braverman threatening to withdraw from the ECHR last week – is helpful to a prime minister who is looking to win back lapsed 2019 Conservative voters and regroup on the right.

His team see a narrow path to victory with all pivots on economic recovery, coupled with the message “we’re back on track, don’t risk Labour” and winning back voters over core issues – environment, immigration – to narrow the polls (someone told me that 14% of lapsed Conservative 2019 voters have moved to Reform, get a chunk back and the gap begins to close).

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‘Being gay isn’t enough to claim asylum’

“I wouldn’t bet against us to turn it around in the coming months,” said one No 10 insider. “Rishi genuinely believes he can make it better for the country and get into the best possible position for an election next year. Seeing how politics has changed over the past one, two years, I wouldn’t bet against us being able to turn it around. We have got to be the party of change.”

But the huge problem for Mr Sunak is that voters seem to have tuned out. He has been in No 10 for a year, and still the polls are unchanged. This conference, likely the last before an election, is his final chance to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.

But he has a problem too with a party that is in despair. While No 10 were pleased that the net zero announcements didn’t spark at backlash from pro-green One Nation Conservatives, the right of the party is restive over economy and waiting for the prime minister to placate them on spending and tax cuts. One figure suggested to me this weekend that Mr Sunak might use the cancellation of the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 as a way of finding room for manoeuvre when it comes to promises on tax.

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Labour: ‘We want HS2 to go ahead’

Closing the gap with Labour is the goal for now as speculation grows around whether it will be a May or October election. (If it’s May you can run it with the local elections and not risk a small boats summer crisis or a vote in the autumn after a local election wipeout – but the PM might just want to hold out.)

But away from the No 10 bunker, and even his most ardent backers think the best Mr Sunak can achieve is holding Labour back from an outright majority.

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As for some of his more seasoned MPs, they are resigned to what they see is their fate: “Instinctively, I don’t feel that we can win. This feels like a damage limitation project.”

Manchester will be the acid test as to whether Mr Sunak can shift the momentum.

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Home Office loses appeal to challenge block on asylum seeker’s deportation to France

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Home Office loses appeal to challenge block on asylum seeker's deportation to France

The Home Office has lost a Court of Appeal bid to challenge a High Court ruling granting an Eritrean man a temporary block on being deported to France.

The ruling will be a blow to ministers, who had been hoping to make headway with their “one in, one out” migrant returns deal with France.

Politics latest: Don’t let Trump’s America become Farage’s Britain, Ed Davey says

Under the deal, the UK can send back any migrant who crosses the Channel illegally in return for accepting the same number of migrants in France who have a valid asylum claim here.

However, only four people have been deported under the scheme so far, including one Afghan individual who was deported to France this afternoon.

The Eritrean man was granted a temporary block on his removal after he claimed he had been a victim of modern slavery.

The government has said up to 50 people a week could be deported under the scheme initially, but it believes numbers would grow and eventually act as a deterrent to those considering making the dangerous journey across the Channel.

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Last Friday saw more than 1,000 people cross the Channel to the UK in small boats the day after the first migrant was deported under the “one in, one out” deal.

The latest Home Office figures show 1,072 people made the journey in 13 boats – averaging more than 82 people per boat. It means the number of migrants arriving in the UK after crossing the English Channel has topped 30,000 for the year so far.

Migrants arrive at Dover. Pic: PA
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Migrants arrive at Dover. Pic: PA

Shabana Mahmood, who was promoted to home secretary in the prime minister’s reshuffle earlier this month, has accused migrants who try to block their deportation of making a “mockery” of the UK’s modern slavery laws.

She has vowed to do “whatever it takes” to end crossings – but the Conservatives have branded the “one in, one out” deal with France “meagre” and have called for their Rwanda policy to be reinstated.

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Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “Yet again the courts have stepped in to block a deportation, proving what we warned from the start, unless you tackle the lawfare strangling Britain’s borders, nothing will change.

“This is nothing but a gimmick. Even if by some miracle it worked, it would still be no deterrent, as 94 per cent of arrivals would still stay.”

Meanwhile, Reform UK has promised to crack down on both legal and illegal migration.

Last month, party leader Nigel Farage outlined plans to deport hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants in the first parliament of a potential Reform UK government.

On Monday, he announced fresh policies to reduce legal migration, saying his party would ban access to benefits to migrants and get rid of indefinite leave to remain – the term used to describe the right to settle in the UK, with access to benefits, after five years.

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Ed Davey warns that Nigel Farage wants to turn Britain into ‘Trump’s America’

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Ed Davey warns that Nigel Farage wants to turn Britain into 'Trump's America'

Sir Ed Davey has used his keynote speech to warn that the UK has a choice between “the real change people crave”, and a Reform government turning Britain into “Trump’s America”.

The leader of the Liberal Democrats has sought to paint a picture of the country at a crossroads, and has heaped accusations on Nigel Farage – suggesting he would reverse gun laws and scrap the NHS.

Sir Ed has spent the past few days of the party’s conference in Bournemouth attacking tech titan Elon Musk and the Reform UK leader.

But now he has used his speech to try and tie the ideas of Mr Farage and President Trump together in voters’ minds.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey delivering his speech during the autumn conference.
Pic: PA
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Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey delivering his speech during the autumn conference.
Pic: PA

He said: “Imagine living in the Trump-inspired country Farage wants us to become.

“Where there’s no NHS, so patients are hit with crippling insurance bills. Or denied healthcare altogether.

“Where we pay Putin for expensive fossil fuels and destroy our beautiful countryside with fracking – while climate change rages on.

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“Where gun laws are rolled back, so schools have to teach our children what to do in case of a mass shooting. Where social media barons are free to poison young minds with impunity.”

Sir Ed called Nigel Farage a "hypocrite" who should "apologise" for his record on tackling immigration.
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Sir Ed called Nigel Farage a “hypocrite” who should “apologise” for his record on tackling immigration.


Sir Ed also accused Mr Farage’s party of allowing “the government [to] trample on our basic rights and freedoms” by saying it will pull the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – and of giving “tacit support” to racism and misogyny.

The Lib Dem claimed a Reform government would be “where everything is in a constant state of chaos”.

Under Mr Farage, those with mental health problems would be told they are “making it up”, and children with special educational needs that they have “been wrongly diagnosed”, Sir Ed said.

“That is Trump’s America. Don’t let it become Farage’s Britain,” he warned.

But Sir Ed has not only attacked Reform UK for what could happen if they came to power, but also for the “crisis”, which he accused Mr Farage of having already caused.

He pointed to the Reform leader’s support for leaving the EU, which led to 27 existing migrant return agreements being abolished.

Sir Ed said: “He caused this [small boats] crisis, and he should apologise.

“And look at this hypocrite’s big announcement on deportation last month.

“Look at what his plan really means. Sending men, women and children who have fled the Taliban back to Afghanistan to be murdered by them. And even paying the Taliban to do it.

“That isn’t patriotic. That isn’t British. That isn’t who we are.

“So much that is broken in our country today is broken thanks to Nigel Farage. And now he wants to break it even more. Unless we stop him.”

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Sky News political editor Beth Rigby analyses her interview with the Lib Dem leader.

In fact, Sir Ed directly mentioned Mr Farage by name in his speech 30 times, a point made by our political editor Beth Rigby, who has argued that the Reform UK leader is living ‘rent-free’ in the Lib Dem’s head.

Farage is allied with Musk, Putin and Trump, Davey claims

But Sir Ed also had tech billionaire, Elon Musk, in his sights once again.

The Lib Dem leader repeated his allegation that the X owner was “inciting far-right violence” with his speech at the “Unite the Kingdom” rally last weekend.

He called for the UK to stand up to Mr Musk, and for the government to “properly enforce our laws so he can’t get away with inflicting harm on our kids”.

'Trump's America' was a key line of attack for Sir Ed, who said a new coalition should be established to fight the president's tariffs.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
‘Trump’s America’ was a key line of attack for Sir Ed, who said a new coalition should be established to fight the president’s tariffs.
Pic: Reuters

“Nigel Farage is on the side of Elon Musk, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump,” he alleged. “Liberal Democrats are on the side of the British people.”

Sky News has approached X and Elon Musk for comment about these comments that he has made previously, but as of publication has received no response.

X maintains it has “zero tolerance for child sexual abuse material” and claims tackling those who exploit children is a “top priority”.

Read more:
UK faces ‘crisis’ of child-on-child sexual abuse

Trump is ‘the biggest threat to the fight against cancer’

Another person to face Sir Ed’s ire was President Trump, who the leader accused of becoming “the biggest threat to the fight against cancer”.

“The US is by far the world’s biggest funder of cancer research – mostly through its National Cancer Institute,” the leader said.

“But since Donald Trump returned to the White House, he has cancelled hundreds of grants for cancer research projects.

“He’s slashing billions of dollars from the National Cancer Institute’s budget.”

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Sir Ed Davey said he believed Nigel Farage was seeking to mimic the politics of US President Donald Trump.

Sir Ed appealed for scientists who have had projects cancelled or funding cut to “come here and finish it in the UK”.

He said a dedicated scheme should be established to allow them to move to work at British research institutions, without having to pay large visa fees.

He also used his speech to pledge to boost healthcare and cancer research more widely.

He told party members: “The UK should step up and say: if Trump won’t back this research, we will.

“We’ll boost funding for cancer research in the UK. We’ll rebuild a National Cancer Research Institute, after it was closed under the Conservatives, to coordinate research and drive it forward.

“We’ll pass a Cancer Survival Research Act to ensure funding for research into the deadliest cancers.”

He also announced a “cast-iron guarantee” that each patient in the UK diagnosed with cancer will start treatment within two months under the Liberal Democrats.

Sir Ed also:

  • Urged the government to create a new “coalition of the willing” to take on Trump’s tariffs
  • Said he would like to win more seats than the Conservatives at the next general election, for the first time since 1910
  • Appealed to traditional Tory voters and urged them to vote for him “to oppose this failing Labour government”

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US SEC eyes ‘innovation exemption’ to fast-track digital asset products: Atkins

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US SEC eyes ‘innovation exemption’ to fast-track digital asset products: Atkins

US SEC eyes ‘innovation exemption’ to fast-track digital asset products: Atkins

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said he will push an “innovation exemption” by year’s end to let crypto companies roll out products without outdated regulatory hurdles.

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