As Ukraine effectively targets Russia’s Black Sea Fleet – is bigger still better in the military?
Russia’s naval military might dwarf that of Ukraine, yet the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) continues to be targeted – and increasingly effectively – by Ukrainian forces.
Conventional military wisdom suggests the largest, best equipped military will prevail, yet Ukraine appears to have turned that principle on its head.
Why is Ukraine attacking the Russian Navy, and does this strategy expose a critical vulnerability for many of the world’s naval powers?
Following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine recognised its Sevastopol-based navy could not match Russia’s BSF militarily, so those ships that could not escape – around 75% of the Ukrainian Navy – were captured by Russia, and the Ukrainian flagship Hetman Sahaidachny was scuttled to prevent it falling into Russian hands.
Turkey controls the Bosphorus Straights and denies the passage of any military vessels during the conflict, enabling the BSF to blockade the Black Sea and dominate Ukraine’s territorial waters.
However, a core principle of war is to avoid your enemy’s strength and attack their weakness, particularly if your enemy is superior in size and capability.
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Ukraine: Black Sea fleet chief killed
Ukraine has therefore leveraged technology to conduct a series of “asymmetric” attacks against the Russian BSF, including sinking the Moskva, targeting numerous ships and submarines with a mix of drones and missiles, and this past week, an audacious attack on the “brains” of the BSF – its military HQ.
Ukraine, a nation with no military ships, has forced a superpower’s navy into retreat.
But why?
Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has halted Ukraine’s grain exports – a vital source of revenue – and limits Russia’s ability to launch an amphibious assault of the Ukraine port of Odesa.
By successfully targeting Russia’s naval capability – particularly its ships and submarines – it is making these traditional symbols of military supremacy into a critical Russian vulnerability, forcing the BSF to seek sanctuary further east, away from Ukraine.
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Kyiv claims major breakthrough
The success of Ukraine’s strategy has significant implications for Western military procurement.
Navy vessels – particularly large aircraft carriers – do not operate alone. A Carrier Group includes Cruisers, Destroyers or Frigates, Auxiliary support vessels and fast-attack submarines.
This represents powerful military capability, especially at scale, but when nations can only afford very limited numbers of these strategic assets, they cannot afford to be lost, and are thus very vulnerable to asymmetric attack.
And, with the Queen Elizabeth-class carriers costing more than £3bn each, they make an attractive target for an agile and innovative foe.
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Odesa drone explosion seen from ferry
Air forces are similarly vulnerable.
The US B2 is a uniquely capable aircraft, but at over $1bn each, only 20 were commissioned. At least those platforms have global reach and do not need to forward-deploy.
The Joint Strike Fighter will be sold in much larger numbers but at $100m each, national budgets will still limit numbers available.
Lessons will be learned elsewhere
And, although most military air bases (in Europe) have hardened aircraft shelters available to protect against drone/asymmetric attack, the current concept of operations is to forward-deploy, when these strategic assets will be increasingly vulnerable to an agile and innovative enemy.
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Ukraine has no navy, yet it has terrorised the Russian BSF, destroyed many of its strategic assets and destroyed its HQ, and forced Russia into retreating from the main battlefield.
Technology, innovation and determination have prevailed over conventional military capability. Instead of “biggest is the best”, the underdog can prevail.
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Why is Ukraine so successful in attacking key Russian military facilities?
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Ukraine retakes village near Bakhmut
Taiwan might not be able to match China militarily, but it will have learned valuable lessons from the Ukraine war.
However, so will North Korea, Iran, and a collection of nations that have traditionally been considered military “underdogs”.
Will the West’s military obsession with size and capability prove to be its critical vulnerability?
Although military numerical and capability supremacy remains an attractive option, Ukraine has demonstrated that agility, technology and adaptability can prove a compelling counter.
Which will not have passed unnoticed by potential adversaries!
An audacious Ukrainian drone attack against multiple airbases across Russia is a humiliating security breach for Vladimir Putin that will doubtless trigger a furious response.
Pro-Kremlin bloggers have described the drone assault – which Ukrainian security sources said hit more than 40 Russian warplanes – as “Russia’s Pearl Harbor” in reference to the Japanese attack against the US in 1941 that prompted Washington to enter the Second World War.
Ukraine war latest: Russia accuses Kyiv of ‘terrorist attack’
The Ukrainian operation – which used small drones smuggled into Russia, hidden in mobile sheds and launched off the back of trucks – also demonstrated how technology and imagination have transformed the battlefield, enabling Ukraine to seriously hurt its far more powerful opponent.
Moscow will have to retaliate, with speculation already appearing online about whether President Putin will again threaten the use of nuclear weapons.
“We hope that the response will be the same as the US response to the attack on their Pearl Harbor or even harsher,” military blogger Roman Alekhin wrote on his Telegram channel.
Codenamed ‘Spider’s Web’, the mission on Sunday was the culmination of one and a half years of planning, according to a security source.
In that time, Ukraine’s secret service smuggled first-person view (FPV) drones into Russia, sources with knowledge of the operation said.
Flat-pack, garden-office style sheds were also secretly transported into the country.
The drones were hidden in truck containers. Pic: SBU Security Service
The oblong sheds were then built and drones were hidden inside, before the containers were put on the back of trucks and driven to within range of their respective targets.
At a chosen time, doors on the roofs of the huts were opened remotely and the drones were flown out. Each was armed with a bomb that was flown into the airfields, with videos released by the security service that purportedly showed them blasting into Russian aircraft.
These drones were used to destroy Russian bomber aircraft. Pic: SBU Security Service
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Among the targets were Tu-95 and Tu-22 bomber aircraft that can launch cruise missiles, according to the Ukrainian side. An A-50 airborne early warning aircraft was also allegedly hit. This is a valuable platform that is used to command and control operations.
The use of such simple technology to destroy multi-million-pound aircraft will be watched with concern by governments around the world.
Suddenly, every single military base, airfield and warship will appear that little bit more vulnerable if any truck nearby could be loaded with killer drones.
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The most immediate focus, though, will be on how Mr Putin responds.
Previous attacks by Ukraine inside Russia have triggered retaliatory strikes and increasingly threatening rhetoric from the Kremlin.
But this latest operation is one of the biggest and most significant, and comes on the eve of a new round of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv that are meant to take place in Turkey. It is not clear if that will still happen.
US President Donald Trump has been pushing for the two sides to make peace but Russia has only escalated its war.
Ukraine clearly felt it had nothing to lose but to also go on the attack.
Two people are dead and nearly 560 people were arrested after disorder broke out in France following Paris Saint-Germain’s victory in the Champions League final, the French interior ministry has said.
The ministry added 192 people were injured and there were 692 fires, including 264 involving vehicles.
A 17-year-old boy was stabbed to death in the city of Dax during a PSG street party after Saturday night’s final in Munich, the national police service said.
The second person killed was a man who was hit by a car while riding a scooter during PSG celebrations, the interior minister’s office said.
Paris police chief Laurent Nuñez has said the man was in his 20s and although the incident is still being investigated, it appears his death was linked to the disorder.
Meanwhile, French authorities have reported that a police officer is in a coma following the clashes.
A burning bike on the Champs Elysees during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
The officer had been hit by a firecracker that emerged from a crowd of supporters in Coutances in the Manche department of northwestern France, according to reports in the country.
Initial investigations reportedly suggest the incident was accidental and the police officer was not deliberately targeted.
The perpetrator has not been identified.
A man walks past teargas during incidents after the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan. Pic: AP
A burning bike on the Champs Elysees during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
The interior ministry earlier said 22 security forces workers were injured during the chaos – including 18 who were injured in Paris, along with seven firefighters.
In a news conference today, Mr Nuñez said only nine of the force’s officers had been injured in the French capital.
He added that fireworks were directed at police and firefighters were attacked while responding to car fires.
There were 559 arrests across the country during the disorder, including 491 in Paris. Of those detained across the country, 320 were taken into police custody – with 254 in the French capital.
Mr Nuñez said although most people wanted to celebrate PSG’s win, some only wanted to get involved in fights with police.
He also said the force is only at “half-time” in its response because the PSG team will be celebrating their Champions League victory on the Champs Élysées later today.
Police in Paris during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
Police in Paris during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
Mr Nuñez said that the police presence and military presence in Paris will be increased on the ground for the parade.
It comes after flares and fireworks were set off in the French capital after PSG beat Inter Milan 5-0 in Munich – the biggest ever victory in a Champions League final.
Around 5,400 police were deployed across Paris after the game, with officers using tear gas and pepper spray on the Champs Élysées.
Pic: AP
Pic: AP
At the top of the Champs Élysées, a water cannon was used to protect the Place de l’Etoile, near the landmark Arc de Triomphe.
Police said a large crowd not watching the match tried to push through a barrier to make contact with officers.
Some 131 arrests were made, including 30 who broke into a shoe shop on the Champs Élysées.
Police have said a total of four shops, including a car dealership and a barbers, were targeted during the disorder in Paris.
Two cars were set alight close to Parc des Princes, police said.
PSG forward Ousmane Dembélé appealed for calm in a post-match interview with Canal+, saying: “Let’s celebrate this but not tear everything up in Paris.”
Pics: AP
After the final played at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, thousands of supporters also tried to rush the field.
Police lined up in front of the PSG end of the stadium at the final whistle, but struggled to contain the fans for several minutes when they came down from the stands following the trophy presentation.
Pics: AP
Désiré Doué, the 19-year-old who scored two goals and assisted one in the final, said after the game: “I don’t have words. But what I can say is, ‘Thank you Paris,’ we did it.”
Despite being a supporter of PSG’s rivals Olympique de Marseille, French President Emmanuel Macron also said on social media: “A glorious day for PSG!
“Bravo, we are all proud. Paris, the capital of Europe this evening.”
Mr Macron’s office said the president would receive the players at the Elysee Palace on Sunday.
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Three patients have been killed and dozens of other people were reportedly injured after a fire at a hospital in Germany.
The blaze broke out in a room in the geriatric ward of the Marienkrankenhaus early on Sunday.
It started on the ground floor and spread to the level above, with smoke affecting much of the four-storey building in the city of Hamburg.
Firefighters were alerted soon after midnight.
They said they found several patients calling for help from windows, and some people were rescued using ladders.
Pic: AP
Pic: Reuters
Three adults died and more than 30 were injured in the fire, the German news agency dpa said.
One of the injured is in a life-threatening condition, while 18 have serious injuries and 15 have minor injuries, the agency added.
Read more from Sky News:
Two dead and hundreds of arrests in France after PSG win
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Part of the building had to be evacuated, though the wounded were mostly treated at the hospital.
Two injured people were taken to other nearby clinics.
The blaze was put out within about 20 minutes. The cause is not yet known.
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