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Rishi Sunak’s recent shift on green policies gave us the biggest indication yet that he is planning for a general election.

Standing on a podium with the slogan “Long term decisions for a brighter future”, the prime minister made clear his watering down of net zero pledges was not a one-off, but the beginning of a series of policy measures aimed at driving a wedge with Labour – and turning around his fortunes in the polls.

UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, with the maximum term of a parliament five years from the day it first met.

The current parliament first met on 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on 17 December 2024, with polling day expected to take place 25 days later (not counting any bank holidays or weekends).

This means the next election will take place by the end of January 2025 at the absolute latest.

But the precise date of the vote remains guesswork – and has been the subject of much speculation.

There have been reports of a spring election, and a November election, or could the prime minister even stick it out until the bitter end?

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“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told Sky News.

“The biggest drag for the Tory party are the events of 2022, therefore what they need to do is distance themselves from that as much as possible.

“Coinciding with that, the financial assessments are that the picture will be better in autumn 2024 on a worldwide basis. If America reduces interest rates, it’s likely Europe and Britain will follow, so an autumn 2024 election is economically more attractive.”

Lord Hayward added that Mr Sunak also “needs more time” to establish his leadership style and prove he is capable of managing the country, having promised to bring stability as he staked his premiership on five key pledges relating to the economy, immigration and the NHS.

Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher comes to a similar conclusion.

PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait and see strategy’

“The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election. A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”

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Is this all because you’re scared of losing the election?

Prof Thrasher says while the local elections in May next year could see the Conservatives lose seats and councils, the London mayoral elections could see a different dynamic, particularly among motorists, with Sunak rowing back on his green agenda.

“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy. The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable and she went for general elections a month later.

“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.

“Better economic indicators, a possible reduction in illegal Channel crossings and a global outlook that favours incumbents might be the best that the Conservatives can hope for.”

The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.

But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini budget – all against the back drop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.

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‘No good reason to go early’

Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”

He believes the Tories are facing electoral disaster on the scale of 1997, when after 18 years in power the party, led by Sir John Major, was defeated in a landslide by Labour’s Sir Tony Blair.

He told Sky News: “At the moment there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.

“They are 17 points behind in the polls, they have made no discernible progress in the last 12 months.

“They will want more time to make economic progress and bring down NHS waiting lists.”

He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS.

He added: “From a personal point, if you are prime minister and the odds are you are never going to be prime minister again, you are going to want to maximise your term.”

But while the consensus has long been that an autumn election would be the safest bet for Mr Sunak, recent reports have suggested the idea of a spring ballot is gaining traction.

Although the Tory leader has remained confident about his chances of winning the next election, some Conservative MPs have accepted they are headed for opposition – and believe an earlier vote could minimise losses.

That is the view of Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, who warned there are costs of holding onto power.

Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’

“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.

Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.

He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May 2024 and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.

This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.

He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.

“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.

“I would tell him to pick the moment when the economy is strongest, be realistic and go with the idea of being in opposition rather than victory.”

Read More:
A general election isn’t far away – and Labour need to make Sir Keir Starmer look like a prime minister
Political parties eye general election after mixed results in triple by-election

Beth Rigby analysis: Can the Tories turn things around before the next election?

‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’

Lord Finkelstein stressed a Conservative victory is not impossible.

This week’s party conference in Manchester, expected to be the last before an election, offers a final chance for Mr Sunak to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.

As our political editor Beth Rigby explains, his team eye a narrow path to victory on economic recovery coupled with the message “we’re back on track don’t risk Labour”, and will seek to pitch themselves as on the side of motorists to further mine the advantage gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.

Labour, for their part, have insisted they aren’t complacent despite their significant lead in the polls.

They have been preparing for government for some time, and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.

“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.

Ultimately only the prime minister knows when he will call an election, and there is no reason for him to have decided yet.

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Sir John Curtice is not convinced by the argument for a spring election, saying he believes leaks suggesting it’s a possibility are designed “to keep the Opposition on their toes.. creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.

“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.

However, he agrees holding onto power for too long is also a gamble.

“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” he said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”

Watch Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips at 8.30am on Sky News – live from the Conservative Party conference. He will be joined by Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, former home secretary Dame Priti Patel, and Labour’s shadow Scotland secretary Ian Murray.

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‘Bring it on’: Left-wing activists gather for fight back against the right – and Labour

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'Bring it on': Left-wing activists gather for fight back against the right - and Labour

The World Transformed, a left-wing political festival, has historically ran alongside the Labour Party Conference as an unofficial fringe event.

But a lot has changed since it began in 2016, organised then by the Corbyn-backed group Momentum. And like the former Labour leader himself, TWT has gone independent.

From Thursday to Sunday, a programme of politics, arts and cultural events will be held in Manchester, a week after Labour’s annual party gathering ended.

“It no longer made any sense to be a fringe festival of the Labour conference,” Hope Worsdale, an organiser since 2018, tells Sky News. “We need a space for the independent left to come together.”

This decision was made before the formation of Your Party in July and the surge of support behind the Greens and its new leader Zack Polanski, but both these factors have given TWT some extra momentum. Organisers say it is not just a festival, but a “statement of intent from the British left” – and a left that looks different from how it used to.

Previous headline speakers were Labour MPs in the left-wing Socialist Campaign Group, and in 2021, the showstopper was American democrat Bernie Sanders calling in live for an event alongside John McDonnell.

The World Transformed, previously headlined left-wing Labour MPs
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The World Transformed, previously headlined left-wing Labour MPs

Bernie Sanders and John McDonnell in conversation at TWT in 2021
Image:
Bernie Sanders and John McDonnell in conversation at TWT in 2021

This year, Mr Polanski, Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana are the only British politicians due to speak at events – though Brian Leishman, who lost the Labour whip in the summer, is also scheduled on a panel.

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TWT was put on pause last year for organisers to reflect upon its role going forward, after Sir Keir Starmer’s election victory.

In 2021, 2022 and 2023, while he was leader of the opposition, the festival was able to “co-exist” with Labour as a space for activists on the left to discuss ideas.

But the prime minister’s “shift to the right” has alienated so many of those grassroots members that it was felt TWT’s core audience would no longer be at Labour Party conferences, says Hope, who joined Labour in the Corbyn years and has since left.

TWT in 2016. Pic: TWT
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TWT in 2016. Pic: TWT

Event at TWT in 2023
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Event at TWT in 2023

“Our official position isn’t that Labour is dead and no one should engage with it,” she says.

“But they have shifted the values of Labour so radically since the last election, broken promise after promise, attacked civil liberties… there’s been such a suite of terrible decisions that mean people who are generally progressive and generally left wing feel like they have to take their organising elsewhere.”

So what’s on the cards?

There will be 120 events held in Hulme, Manchester, from Thursday to Sunday evening.

At the heart of the programme is daily assemblies, which organisers say are “designed to hold genuinely constructive debates about what we should do and how we should do it”.

But there’s just as much partying as there is politics – Dele Sosimi and his Afrobeat Orchestra are headlining the Saturday night slot while a “mystery guest” will host what TWT calls its “infamous” pub quiz on Friday night.

Back in 2018 that was Ed Miliband’s job, when 10,000 activists were expected to attend TWT. This year, organisers anticipate around 3,000 people will gather, but those involved insist this is a real chance for the left to strategise and co-ordinate, given the involvement of over 75 grassroots groups, trade unions, and activist networks.

Collaboration ‘vital’

A key question the left will need to address is how it can avoid splitting the vote given the rise of the Greens, socialist independents and the formation of Your Party,

One activist from the We Deserve Better organisation, which is campaigning for a left-wing electoral alliance and will be at TWT this weekend, acknowledged collaboration is “vital” if the left is to make gains under Britain’s first-past-the-post system.

Jeremy Corbyn at TWT. Pic: Reuters
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Jeremy Corbyn at TWT. Pic: Reuters

But it remains to be seen whether Your Party co-leaders Mr Corbyn and Ms Sultana can even work together following their public spat last month, let alone with other parties. The pair put on a united front at a rally in Liverpool on the eve of TWT, when Sultana said she was “truly sorry” and promised “no more of that”. But will the truce last?

“It’s not ideal”, says the activist. “Hopefully they are back on track…a lot of collaboration is happening at the grassroots and we need to make sure it’s formalised so we can beat Labour and the right, we need to put on united front.”

They point to seats like Ilford North, where Health Secretary Wes Streeting clung on by a margin of just 528 votes in the general election, after a challenge from British-Palestinian candidate Leanne Mohamad, who ran in protest against Labour’s stance on Gaza.

Meanwhile, in Hackney, the Greens are hoping to gain their first directly elected mayor next May, with the Hackney Independent Socialist Group of councillors throwing their weight behind the party’s candidate, Zoe Garbett.

The We Deserve Better activist says Labour’s “hostile war on the left” has made these areas ripe for the taking, and what is more important than party affiliation is galvanising momentum behind one candidate who shares socialist values on issues like public ownership and immigration – be they the Greens, independents, or Your Party.

“The World Transformed reflects a general reorientation of the left outside of Labour. If they are taking these places for granted, we are going to win. If we unite as the left then we can win even bigger. Bring it on.”

Is Labour in danger?

There is some cause for Labour to be worried. It is haemorrhaging votes to both the right and the left after a tumultuous first year in office (13% to Reform UK, 10% to the Greens and 10% to the Lib Dems, according to an Ipsos poll in September).

Many Labour MPs feel the prime minister has spent too much energy trying to “out Reform Reform” with a focus on immigration, and he needs to do more to win back moderate and progressive voters that will be gathering at TWT this weekend.

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Starmer’s ‘anti-Reform party’ gamble

One fed-up MP told Sky News it was a shame TWT had decided to branch away from Labour, but not a surprise.

“This was something that was on the cards for a while, a parting of the ways, it’s another thing to show what’s happening with the direction of the party.”

He said in previous years the festival “was full of people for the first time in their life who were excited about politics and had a leadership looking at how it could challenge the biggest issues in our country”.

“Debates could be heated but it was always a place for intellectual discussion and that inside the Labour Party is now dead.”

But he said the party ultimately had bigger things to worry about than TWT, with a budget round the corner and potentially catastrophic local elections in May.

“I don’t think it will keep Keir Starmer or Morgan McSweeney up at night.”

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Privacy group urges Ireland to drop work on encryption ‘backdoor law’

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Privacy group urges Ireland to drop work on encryption ‘backdoor law’

Privacy group urges Ireland to drop work on encryption ‘backdoor law’

The Irish Communications Interception and Lawful Access Bill is still in development, with drafting yet to occur, but the Global Encryption Coalition wants it scrapped now.

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Palestine Action ban must be explained, Labour peer tells Starmer

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Palestine Action ban must be explained, Labour peer tells Starmer

Ministers must do “much more” to explain why Palestine Action is a proscribed terrorist group, Harriet Harman has said.

Speaking to the Sky News Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said the government looked like it was just “arresting octogenarian vicars who are worried about the awful situation in Gaza”.

Baroness Harman, who was a Labour MP from 1982 to 2024, said the government had a “number of incredibly important duties” with regard to the war in Gaza – including protecting the Jewish community while also permitting free speech.

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She said that as well as ensuring the safety of Jewish venues, such as schools and synagogues, the government also needed to “try and create an atmosphere where the Jewish people should not feel that they are under threat and be asking themselves whether this is the right country for them to live in and be bringing up their families”.

Baroness Harman went on: “They also have to support and uphold the right to free speech and the right of protest. And people have felt so horrified.

“We all have about the devastating loss of life and suffering in Gaza. And so it’s right that people are allowed to protest.”

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A number of protests in support of Palestine Action have been organised in recent months following the group’s proscription under anti-terrorism laws in July, after members targeted RAF Brize Norton and damaged two military aircraft.

Protests against the British government's ban on Palestine Action
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Protests against the British government’s ban on Palestine Action

Last week, there were calls for the demonstrations to be halted following the attack on Heaton Park Synagogue in Manchester, in which two people were killed – but a number took place across the country, including in London.

The Labour peer said the organisers of such protests had a responsibility not to allow people to support a “terrorist organisation” but that the government also needed to do “much, more more” to explain why Palestine Action had been proscribed.

Read more:
What does Trump’s Gaza peace plan look like?
Trump’s Gaza deal may not please everyone – but it offers hope

“At the moment, it just looks like the police are arresting octogenarian vicars who are worried about the awful situation in Gaza,” Baroness Harman said.

“So they’ve got to actually be much clearer in why Palestine Action is a terrorist group and that they’re justified in prescribing them and making them illegal.

“But also the police have got to police those marches in stopping them being about the spouting of hatred and inciting violence, with people talking about globalising the intifada, which basically means killing all Jewish people.

“And the police do actually have very wide-ranging powers, not just to arrest people, but to actually ban marches.

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