When could the next general election be? The factors Rishi Sunak will be weighing up
Rishi Sunak’s recent shift on green policies gave us the biggest indication yet that he is planning for a general election.
Standing on a podium with the slogan “Long term decisions for a brighter future”, the prime minister made clear his watering down of net zero pledges was not a one-off, but the beginning of a series of policy measures aimed at driving a wedge with Labour – and turning around his fortunes in the polls.
UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, with the maximum term of a parliament five years from the day it first met.
The current parliament first met on 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on 17 December 2024, with polling day expected to take place 25 days later (not counting any bank holidays or weekends).
This means the next election will take place by the end of January 2025 at the absolute latest.
But the precise date of the vote remains guesswork – and has been the subject of much speculation.
There have been reports of a spring election, and a November election, or could the prime minister even stick it out until the bitter end?
“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told Sky News.
“The biggest drag for the Tory party are the events of 2022, therefore what they need to do is distance themselves from that as much as possible.
“Coinciding with that, the financial assessments are that the picture will be better in autumn 2024 on a worldwide basis. If America reduces interest rates, it’s likely Europe and Britain will follow, so an autumn 2024 election is economically more attractive.”
Lord Hayward added that Mr Sunak also “needs more time” to establish his leadership style and prove he is capable of managing the country, having promised to bring stability as he staked his premiership on five key pledges relating to the economy, immigration and the NHS.
Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher comes to a similar conclusion.
PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait and see strategy’
“The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election. A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”
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Is this all because you’re scared of losing the election?
Prof Thrasher says while the local elections in May next year could see the Conservatives lose seats and councils, the London mayoral elections could see a different dynamic, particularly among motorists, with Sunak rowing back on his green agenda.
“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy. The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable and she went for general elections a month later.
“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.
“Better economic indicators, a possible reduction in illegal Channel crossings and a global outlook that favours incumbents might be the best that the Conservatives can hope for.”
The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.
But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini budget – all against the back drop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.
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‘No good reason to go early’
Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”
He believes the Tories are facing electoral disaster on the scale of 1997, when after 18 years in power the party, led by Sir John Major, was defeated in a landslide by Labour’s Sir Tony Blair.
He told Sky News: “At the moment there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.
“They are 17 points behind in the polls, they have made no discernible progress in the last 12 months.
“They will want more time to make economic progress and bring down NHS waiting lists.”
He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS.
He added: “From a personal point, if you are prime minister and the odds are you are never going to be prime minister again, you are going to want to maximise your term.”
But while the consensus has long been that an autumn election would be the safest bet for Mr Sunak, recent reports have suggested the idea of a spring ballot is gaining traction.
Although the Tory leader has remained confident about his chances of winning the next election, some Conservative MPs have accepted they are headed for opposition – and believe an earlier vote could minimise losses.
That is the view of Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, who warned there are costs of holding onto power.
Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’
“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.
Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.
He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May 2024 and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.
This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.
He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.
“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.
“I would tell him to pick the moment when the economy is strongest, be realistic and go with the idea of being in opposition rather than victory.”
Read More:
A general election isn’t far away – and Labour need to make Sir Keir Starmer look like a prime minister
Political parties eye general election after mixed results in triple by-election
Beth Rigby analysis: Can the Tories turn things around before the next election?
‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’
Lord Finkelstein stressed a Conservative victory is not impossible.
This week’s party conference in Manchester, expected to be the last before an election, offers a final chance for Mr Sunak to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.
As our political editor Beth Rigby explains, his team eye a narrow path to victory on economic recovery coupled with the message “we’re back on track don’t risk Labour”, and will seek to pitch themselves as on the side of motorists to further mine the advantage gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.
Labour, for their part, have insisted they aren’t complacent despite their significant lead in the polls.
They have been preparing for government for some time, and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.
“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.
Ultimately only the prime minister knows when he will call an election, and there is no reason for him to have decided yet.
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Sir John Curtice is not convinced by the argument for a spring election, saying he believes leaks suggesting it’s a possibility are designed “to keep the Opposition on their toes.. creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.
“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.
However, he agrees holding onto power for too long is also a gamble.
“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” he said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”
Watch Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips at 8.30am on Sky News – live from the Conservative Party conference. He will be joined by Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, former home secretary Dame Priti Patel, and Labour’s shadow Scotland secretary Ian Murray.
Rachel Reeves is fighting claims that she “lied” to the public about the state of the finances in the run-up to last Wednesday’s budget – in which she raised £26bn in taxes.
It follows a letter published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the official watchdog which draws up forecasts for the Treasury, published on Friday.
In it, OBR chair Richard Hughes (who is already under fire for the leak of the budget measures) said he’d taken the unusual step of revealing the forecasts it had submitted to Rachel Reeves in the 10 weeks before the budget, and which is normally shrouded in secrecy.
The OBR sent this table revealing its timings and outcomes of the fiscal forecasts reported to the Treasury
Sir Keir Starmer congratulates Rachel Reeves after the budget
The letter reveals this timeline, which has plunged the chancellor into trouble:
17 September – first forecast
At this point, it was already known that the UK’s growth forecast would be downgraded. The chancellor was told that the “increases in real wages and inflation” would offset the impact of the downgrade. The deficit forecast by the end of the parliament was £2.5bn.
20 October – second forecast
By this point, that deficit had turned into a small surplus of £2.1bn – i.e. the productivity downgrade has been wiped out and “both of the government’s fiscal targets were on course to be met”.
31 October – third forecast
The final one before the Treasury put forward its measures. The finances were now net positive with a £4.2bn surplus.
But the accusation is that Rachel Reeves was presenting an entirely different picture – that she had a significant black hole which needed to be filled.
13 October
Ms Reeves tells Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates the productivity downgrade has been challenging but added: “I won’t duck those challenges. Of course we’re looking at tax and spending.”
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27 October
With the Treasury now aware the deficit had been wiped out, the Financial Times was briefed about a “£20bn hit to public finances.”
4 November
Ms Reeves gave a dawn news conference in Downing Street, setting the stage for tax rises. She says she wants people “to understand the circumstances we are facing… productivity performance is weaker than previously thought”, adding that “we will all have to contribute”.
10 November
Ms Reeves tells BBC 5Live that sticking to Labour’s promises not to raise taxes would require “things like deep cuts in capital spending”. The stage seemed set for the nuclear option – the first income tax rise in decades.
13 November
After headlines about a plot to oust Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the Financial Times reported that the chancellor had dropped plans to raise income tax because of improved forecasts [which we now know hadn’t changed since 31 October], putting the black hole closer to £20bn than £30bn.
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Budget 2025: ‘It’s sickening’
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‘You’ve broken a manifesto pledge, haven’t you?’
The prime minister’s spokesperson has insisted Ms Reeves did not mislead voters and set out her choices, and the reasons for them, at the budget.
But the issue has had enormous cut-through, with newspapers giving it top billing.
The Sun’s Saturday front page headline – “Chancer of the Exchequer – fury at Reeves ‘lies’ over £30bn black hole” – will not have been pleasant reading for ministers.
She now has questions to answer about the chaotic run-up to the budget – of briefing and counter-briefing, which critics say now makes little sense.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said on Saturday: “We have learned that the chancellor misrepresented the OBR’s forecasts. She sold her ‘Benefits Street’ budget on a lie. Honesty matters… she has to go.”
Economist Paul Johnson, former director of the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), told The Times the chancellor’s 4 November news briefing “probably was misleading. It was clearly intended to have an impact and confirm what independent forecasters like [the National Institute of Economic and Social Research] and the IFS had been saying”.
“It was designed to confirm a narrative that there was a fiscal hole that needed to be filled with significant tax rises. In fact, as she knew at the time, no such hole existed.”
Read more on budget fallout:
Reeves accused over forecasts
Hospitality ‘needs a lifeline’
Ms Reeves is doing a round of morning interviews on Sunday in which she’ll be grilled over which of her budget measures will generate economic growth (which the government claimed was its number one priority), why they have been unable to tackle rising welfare spending and now about why markets and voters were left confused by dire warnings.
She may claim that she never personally said there was a specific £30bn black hole or that the extra headroom generated by the tax rises will ensure she does not have to come back for more next year.
In an interview with The Saturday’s Guardian, Ms Reeves said she had “chosen to protect public spending” on schools and hospitals in the budget.
She confirmed an income tax rise had been looked at, and insisted that OBR forecasts “move around” after the Treasury has submitted its planned measures. There are plenty more questions to come.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir will use a speech on Monday to support Ms Reeves’ budget decisions and set out his long-term growth plans.
He will praise the budget for bearing down on the cost of living, ensuring economic stability through greater headroom, lower inflation and a commitment to fiscal rules, and protecting investment and public services.
Sir Keir will say “economic growth is beating the forecasts”, but that the government must go “further and faster” to encourage it.
Politics
Lammy says justice reforms will reduce victims’ suffering – as right to jury trial set to go in some cases
Victims will be put “front and centre” in reforms to be announced this week, the justice secretary has said, amid reports jury trials will be scrapped in some cases.
Sky News understands ministers have already been briefed on the changes, which would see a judge decide most cases on their own except for murder, rape or manslaughter – or those in the “public interest”.
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said the reforms would speed up justice and save victims from “years of torment and delay”.
Nearly 80,000 cases are currently waiting to be heard in crown courts, but a bid to limit the right to jury trial is likely to be divisive.
Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick said Mr Lammy should “pull his finger out” to cut the backlog rather than “depriving British citizens of ancient liberties”.
“The right to be tried by our peers has existed for more than 800 years – it is not to be casually discarded when the spreadsheets turn red,” said Mr Jenrick.
Full details are expected in the coming days, but in a statement today Mr Lammy said he had “inherited a courts emergency; a justice system pushed to the brink”.
“We will not allow victims to suffer the way they did under the last government, we must put victims front and centre of the justice system,” he added.
Mr Lammy said thousands of lives were on hold due to the case backlog, a “rape victim being told their case won’t come before a court until 2029. A mother who has lost a child at the hands of a dangerous driver, waiting to see justice done”.
He said he wanted a system that “finally gives brave survivors the justice they deserve”.
The justice secretary will reportedly go further than a review recommended. Pic: PA
.However, it’s been reported Mr Lammy will go further than a review conducted by Sir Brian Leveson.
The retired judge backed the move for juries only in the most serious cases, but also proposed some lesser offences could go to a new intermediate court where a judge would be joined by two lay magistrates.
The Times said Mr Lammy had suggested in an internal memo he would remove the lay element from many serious offences that carry sentences of up to five years.
There are fears such a move could increase miscarriages of justice and racial discrimination.
Read more from Sky News:
Reeves fighting ‘lie’ claims as Starmer set to back budget
Your Party co-founder refuses to enter conference hall
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Work and pensions secretary speaks to Sky about justice reforms
Speaking to Sky News’ Politics Hub programme this week, work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden did not deny the changes were on the way.
The MoJ has laid the ground for the reforms by saying the court backlog could hit 100,000 by 2028 under the current system.
It said just 3% of cases are currently decided by a jury, with more than 90% already dealt with by magistrates alone.
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