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The commercial real estate market is headed for a severe collapse due in large part to sky-high interest rates and declining property values, according to a survey of investors.

Around two-thirds of those who responded to a Bloomberg News survey said they believe that the commercial real estate market will recover only after a crash.

When asked when they believe the price of office properties will hit bottom, 44% said they expect that to happen in the second half of next year while 22% said it will be in the first six months of 2024, according to Bloomberg News.

Just 6% of the 919 respondents said that prices would bottom out this year while 29% predicted that it would happen in 2025 or beyond.

The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively, which is increasing the cost of financing commercial properties at a time when there is also reduced need for them, which has hit rent levels.

Investors are bracing for a possible crisis triggered by default on $1.5 trillion in debt that is coming due by the end of 2025,.

Some $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks are set to mature in 2023, according to Trepp.

Over the next four years, commercial real estate properties must pay off debt maturities that will peak at $550 billion in 2027, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Earlier this month, a study released by economists from NYU Stern Business School, Columbia Business School and the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many American cities.

In New York City, the vacancy rate was 22.2% in Q1 of 2023.

Office buildings in New York City — the world’s largest commercial real estate market — have lost $76 billion in value from their most recent sales prices, according to broker JLL.

Blackstone and RXR sold the office building at 1330 Avenue of the Americas for $320 million — a third less than the listing price in 2006.

Real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield recently predicted that there could be 1 billion square feet of unused office space in the US by 2030.

The New York Fed said earlier this year that it was unclear when or if the commercial real estate sector would return to its prior strength.

While the residential rental market has bounced back, the retail and office markets have remained slack – largely due to the shift to remote work and online shopping, the bank said in a posting on its website.

Commercial rents in Manhattan are down a lot from where they were before the pandemic, and this weakening trend may continue as more and more commercial tenants roll off leases that were negotiated when demand for office and retail space was far stronger.

With Post wires

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Environment

Trump nominates a Tesla critic to lead NHTSA

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Trump nominates a Tesla critic to lead NHTSA

President Trump has nominated Jonathan Morrison to lead the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Morrison has previously criticized and tussled with Tesla in his previous role at NHTSA.

Morrison is now Trump’s nominee to head the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which is in charge of regulating the auto industry in the US.

The attorney was the agency’s Chief Counsel during Trump’s first term, and he had a few disputes with Tesla during that time.

In September 2018, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released its Tesla Model 3 crash test results, and the EV got five-star safety ratings in every category.

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Tesla interpreted the data from the test and claimed that Model 3 achieved “the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA“.

Morrison sent Tesla a cease-and-desist letter over the claim, arguing that it was misleading.

The lawyers also subpoenaed Tesla to get data about a specific crash in 2019.

Next week, Morrison is expected to have his confirmation hearing in the Senate and could take up his role shortly after.

The nomination is significant in the context of the current feud between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and President Trump.

Musk has been criticizing Trump and his allies over their recently passed budget and tax bill, which is expected to significantly increase the federal government’s debt and eliminate virtually all subsidies to electric vehicles and renewable energy, potentially harming Tesla.

Trump has warned Musk that he could go directly after his companies and NHTSA would be the top vehicle for that when it comes to Tesla.

The agency had already launched several investigations into Tesla over the years, with the largest one examining Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program and several fatal crashes related to the ADAS system.

Electrek’s Take

Most NHTSA probes into Tesla have resulted in slaps on the wrist at best, but this FSD probe involves several fatal crashes, and even though it started under the Biden administration, it could potentially ramp up under Trump, especially amid his feud with Musk.

On the one hand, it’s disheartening to see the US reach this point, where feuds between billionaires and elected officials are settled through regulatory agencies. Still, at the same time, Musk did buy the election for Trump, so he created this situation in the first place, and there are serious concerns about how safe FSD is.

At the very least, I would hope that NHTSA will start to force Tesla to release all its FSD crash and disengagement data.

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Environment

A 25 mph ambulance? The GEM microcar is now an emergency responder

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A 25 mph ambulance? The GEM microcar is now an emergency responder

You might remember the GEM as a quirky little electric microcar that’s been cruising through campuses, resorts, and planned communities for years. But now, it’s taking on a more serious job – saving lives. Waev Inc., the maker behind the long-running GEM electric vehicle line, has just unveiled the GEM Ambulance, a purpose-built, all-electric, street-legal low-speed vehicle (LSV) designed specifically for emergency medical services.

While it might not replace a full-size ambulance on high-speed highways, this new electric responder is tailor-made for the dense environments where conventional ambulances often struggle: college campuses, sporting events, entertainment venues, airports, and more. With a top speed of 25 mph, it’s built for maneuverability, safety, and zero-emission performance in pedestrian-heavy areas.

“The GEM Ambulance fills a critical gap in medical response – delivering the ideal balance of agility and safety EMS teams need in crowded settings,” said Byron Dudley, Vice President at Waev Inc.

The new GEM Ambulance is built on the same proven electric platform that has powered GEM vehicles for over 25 years. It’s a highly refined LSV that combines practical engineering with professional-grade EMS functionality. In partnership with emergency equipment supplier QTAC, Waev integrated a skid-mounted EMS system that includes secure patient transport, attendant seating, optional oxygen and IV mounts, and rugged PolyTough™ construction designed to handle demanding conditions.

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Unlike golf carts or UTV-based setups that have been DIYed into emergency vehicles, the GEM Ambulance offers a more stable, comfortable, and professional platform. The EMS skid is positioned between the wheels for better weight distribution, and the vehicle’s low deck height and rear step-up provide easy access for patients and personnel alike.

The GEM Ambulance doesn’t skimp on emergency essentials either. It’s equipped with a 360-degree red emergency lighting system, an SAE Class 1-compliant siren with multiple sound patterns, a public address system, turn signals, LED headlights and taillights, and even a pedestrian noise emitter for quiet zones. A backup camera and full 360° sightlines give drivers added confidence when navigating tight environments.

And since it’s 100% electric, there’s no tailpipe emissions to worry about when operating indoors or in crowded spaces. Maintenance is minimal thanks to GEM’s maintenance-free batteries, regenerative braking, and corrosion-resistant aluminum frame. There’s even a seven-year warranty on the lithium-ion battery option.

The biggest surprise might be the price. According to Waev, the GEM Ambulance can cost up to 80% less than a traditional ambulance and 50% less than electric trucks or UTV-based alternatives. Plus, with operating costs of just $0.03 per mile, it promises long-term savings with no fuel, no fluids, and no downtime from engine servicing.

With applications ranging from college campuses and amusement parks to military installations and warehouse sites, the GEM Ambulance could be a game-changer for localized EMS response. It’s available now through GEM’s nationwide dealer network and can also be purchased through government contracts like Sourcewell, Texas BuyBoard, and GSA procurement channels.

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Technology

Microsoft Outlook hit with hours-long outage

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Microsoft Outlook hit with hours-long outage

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Microsoft‘s Outlook email service malfunctioned for several hours Wednesday and Thursday, prompting some people to post on social media about the inability to reach their virtual mailboxes.

The issue began at 6:20 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, according to a dashboard the software company maintains. It affected Outlook.com as well as Outlook mobile apps and desktop programs.

At 12:21 ET the Microsoft 365 Status account posted that it was rolling out a fix.

“Our configuration changes have effectively resolved impact in targeted infrastructure. We’re now deploying the changes worldwide to resolve impact for all users,” Microsoft said in an X post on Thursday afternoon.

The company’s status page said “most impacted users will experience relief within the next two hours,” and that it was continuing to monitor the service.

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On social media, some people reported that Outlook was functioning properly after hours of users posting about problems.

Some posts included screenshots of Outlook that said “something went wrong.” 

With hundreds of millions of active users, Outlook is important, although Apple and Google‘s email clients are more popular, according to data from analytics company Litmus

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