The irony of Rishi Sunak’s long-term vision is the short-term political calculation behind it

Published

2 years ago

October 4, 2023

admin

He may have been prime minister for a year, but his speech to the Conservative Party conference in Manchester felt almost like the moment Rishi Sunak introduced himself for the first time.

A speech rich in announcements and packed with messages about Rishi the man and his values.

He and his team knew the speech would be critical to resetting his stuttering leadership.

And you could see that in the overarching theme he returned to throughout – whether it was his description of his childhood, his political priorities or the sort of leader he wants to be, the ultimate message was “take a look at me again”.

That theme is a tacit acknowledgement that after nearly a year in office, working tirelessly hard, there has been very little apparent change in the public’s appetite for the Conservative Party led by him.

This was the first, and perhaps the only chance, that Mr Sunak will get to lay the foundations of his leadership pitch before a general election.

Politics Hub: Former Conservative PM turns on Sunak – latest updates

The speech aimed to do three things: First, to define his values and priorities of leadership. Second, to set out priorities that support the assertion that he is willing to take “tough decisions” in the country’s long-term interests. Third, to present himself as the ‘change candidate’ who can take the fight to ‘status quo’ Labour.

By doing this, his close advisers hoped he would present himself as a leader who wants to “do what works” and as a traditional Conservative who wants to “make things better for the next generation”.

He sought to project the values of common sense and social conservatism – drawing parallels between himself and Margaret Thatcher by painting the Conservatives as the party of the “grocer’s daughter and pharmacist’s son”.

At its root was the claim that he is the heir to Thatcher – a leader who will “fundamentally change our country”.

“Where a consensus is false, we will challenge it,” he said. “Where a vested interest is placing itself above the needs of the people, we will stop it. And where common sense is under attack from an organised assault, we will defend it.”

There was a triad of policies to back up this pitch: the curtailing of HS2, an overhaul of further education and a crackdown on smoking.

The PM confirmed he was scrapping the northern leg of HS2, describing the rail project as “the ultimate example of the old consensus” and sticking with a project even when the “facts have changed”. He insisted the £36bn of funds freed up would be reinvested into other transport projects.

On education, the PM promised radical reforms for 16-19-year-olds, with a new “Advance British Standard” that would merge A-levels and the vocational T-levels into one qualification. Students would have to study Maths and English until they are 18 and study five subjects rather than three.

And tacking back to social conservatism, the prime minister also announced the legal age for smoking would be raised by one year, every year so that a 14-year-old would never legally be sold cigarettes.

What all these pledges had in common was their long-term nature.

The smoking ban, which the government is expected to introduce into the King’s Speech later this year, will take at least four years to implement, according to Number 10.

The education reforms, which the prime minister claimed would be his top spending priority, will be a decade-long project.

And the radical ripping up of HS2 and his new Northern network transport plan is an endeavour that would run into the coming decades.

The irony of all of this is that the politics of much of this long-term agenda is based on short-term calculations.

On HS2, he’s made a huge decision on a multi-decade project, in part because it gives Labour a real headache.

Do they recommit the money and be framed by the Tories as reckless spenders, or do they follow his lead, with all the backlash that would bring?

What this shows is that, in reality, the speech was far less about the actual policies and all about the politics of a leader who wants to present as a change candidate and paint his opponents as the party of the ‘status quo’ – unwilling to go against the prevailing political consensus.

I do not need to tell you how hard it will be for Sunak to pull this off. He is the leader of a party that has been in government for 13 years and is hugely trailing in the polls. But there are two things that explain the approach.

First, with a Conservative Party truly out of favour with the public, this prime minister has to turn any campaign into one centred on himself – a different kind of leader, disassociated from the Conservative brand.

Second, he doesn’t really have a choice. In a country where voters seem desperate for change, he can hardly pitch himself as a continuity candidate or run on a ‘stick with us’ ticket.

It’s an audacious approach, but what does he have to lose? His party is massively behind in the polls and already looking to who comes next.

If we learnt anything today, it was this: if Sunak is going down, he intends to go down fighting.

Politics

Bitcoin still on track for $1.8M in 2035, says analyst

Published

2 hours ago

April 12, 2025

admin

Bitcoin still on track for .8M in 2035, says analyst

Bitcoin remains on track to surpass $1.8 million by 2035 despite recent price corrections and waning investor appetite caused by ongoing global trade tensions, according to Joe Burnett, director of market research at Unchained.

Speaking during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, Burnett said that Bitcoin is still in a long-term bullish cycle and could potentially rival or surpass gold’s $21 trillion market capitalization within the next decade.

Despite tariff uncertainty limiting risk appetite among investors, research analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term prospects for the next decade.

“When I think about where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, there are two models I admire,” Burnett said. “One is the parallel model, which suggests that Bitcoin will be about $1.8 million in 2035.” “The other is Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin 24 model, which suggests Bitcoin will be $2.1 million by 2035.”

Burnett emphasized that both are “good base cases,” adding that Bitcoin’s trajectory could exceed these predictions depending on broader macroeconomic factors.

🎙Could Bitcoin really hit $10m by Q1 2035? Perhaps.

But first, we need to unravel the tangled web of the markets this week, and for both discussions, @rkbaggs and @gazza_jenks are joined today by Joe Burnett (@IIICapital) on the #CHAINREACTION show! https://t.co/hfyEwGUCsh

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 11, 2025

Bitcoin outlook remains long-term bullish

“The automobile industry is significantly more valuable than the horse and buggy industry,” Burnett said, adding that Bitcoin’s more advanced technological properties will make it surpass the $21 trillion market capitalization of gold. He added:

“The gold market is an estimated $21 trillion market. If Bitcoin just hit $21 trillion and had Bitcoin-gold parity, Bitcoin would be $1 million per coin today.”

Since US President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, global markets have been under pressure due to heightened trade war fears. Hours after taking office, Trump threatened to impose sweeping import tariffs aimed at reducing the country’s trade deficit, weighing on risk sentiment across both equities and crypto.

While Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset may reemerge amid ongoing trade war concerns, physical gold and tokenized gold remain the current winners.

Bitcoin still on track for $1.8M in 2035, says analyst — *Top tokenized gold assets, trading volume. Source: CoinGecko, Cex.io*

Tariff fears led tokenized gold trading volume to surge to a two-year high this week, topping $1 billion for the first time since the US banking crisis in 2023, Cointelegraph reported on April 10.

Strong hands hold during drawdowns

Bitcoin’s volatility is falling during both bear and bull markets, signaling its growing maturity as an asset class.

While another 80% drawdown during future bear markets is still possible, this will act as a robust acquisition period for the “strongest” holders, Burnett said, adding:

“The highs bring [Bitcoin] attention, and the deep, dark bear markets move coins into the hands of the strongest, most convicted holders, as fast as possible.”

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, predicted Bitcoin could climb to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the US Federal Reserve formally enters a quantitative easing cycle.

Despite the optimistic predictions, investors remain cautious and continue “rebalancing their portfolios” but are unlikely to take on significant positions in the next 90 days before markets gain more clarity on global tariff negotiations, Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken, told Cointelegraph.

“With money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs, investors are looking for safer spots to hold their cash right now, including strong currencies. Gold’s a traditional vehicle in these cases and a go-to when markets are uncertain,” he added.

Since the beginning of 2025, the price of gold has risen over 23%, outperforming Bitcoin, which has fallen by more than 10% year-to-date, TradingView data shows.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

Politics

SEC and Binance push for another pause in lawsuit after ‘productive’ talks

Published

5 hours ago

April 12, 2025

admin

<div>SEC and Binance push for another pause in lawsuit after 'productive' talks</div>

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and crypto exchange Binance have asked a US federal judge for an additional two-month pause in their nearly two-year legal battle.

“Since the Court stayed this case, the Parties have been in productive discussions, including discussions concerning how the efforts of the crypto task force may impact the SEC’s claims,” both parties said in an April 11 joint status report with the US District Court for the District of Columbia.

SEC requests Binance to agree to the extension

According to the filing, the SEC requested and Binance agreed to another 60-day extension as the regulator continues to seek permission to “approve any resolution or changes to the scope of this litigation.”

“The Defendants agreed that continuing the stay is appropriate and in the interest of judicial economy,” the filing said.

The request comes not long after the SEC dropped a string of crypto-related lawsuits against crypto exchanges Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini, as well as Robinhood and Consenys.

At the end of the 60-day period, the SEC and Binance plan to submit another joint status report. This marks the second 60-day pause the SEC and Binance have requested this year, following a previous extension granted by the judge on Feb. 11.

SEC, United States, Binance — *The recently launched crypto task force was a key reason behind the request for the second extension. Source:* *CourtListener*

The request in February came just days after crypto skeptic Gary Gensler stepped down as SEC chair on Jan. 20, with crypto-friendly SEC commissioner Mark Uyeda taking over as acting chair.

At the time, the SEC and Binance also cited the establishment of the SEC’s Crypto Task Force as a reason for the pause.

Formed just a day after Gensler resigned on Jan. 21, the task force said it aims to “help the Commission draw clear regulatory lines, provide realistic paths to registration, craft sensible disclosure frameworks, and deploy enforcement resources judiciously.”

The SEC’s legal battle with Binance has dragged on for almost two years. It began in June 2023 when the agency filed a lawsuit against Binance, its US platform, and CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.

The US regulator pressed 13 charges against Binance, including unregistered offers and sales of the BNB and Binance USD tokens, the Simple Earn and BNB Vault products, and its staking program.

Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research

Politics

US crypto industry needs band-aid now, ‘long-term solution’ later — Uyeda

Published

11 hours ago

April 12, 2025

admin

<div>US crypto industry needs band-aid now, 'long-term solution' later — Uyeda</div>

A fast-tracked temporary crypto regulatory framework could bolster innovation within the US crypto industry while permanent regulations are still in the works, says acting US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Mark Uyeda.

“A time-limited, conditional exemptive relief framework for registrants and non-registrants could allow for greater innovation with blockchain technology within the United States in the near term,” Uyeda said at the SEC’s April 11 Crypto Task Force roundtable titled “Between a Block and a Hard Place: Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading.”

Relief measures may address immediate challenges

Uyeda said this might be the short-term answer as the SEC works toward a “long-term solution,” at the roundtable with SEC members and crypto industry executives, including Uniswap Labs’ Katherine Minarik, Cumberland DRW’s Chelsea Pizzola, and Coinbase’s Gregory Tusar.

He flagged state-by-state regulation of crypto trading as a concern, warning it could lead to a “patchwork of state licensing regimes.”

Uyeda said that a favorable federal regulatory framework would ease the burden for market participants wishing to offer tokenized securities and non-security crypto assets, allowing them to operate under a single SEC license instead of navigating “fifty different state licenses.”

He urged crypto market participants to share feedback on areas where “exemptive relief” could be appropriate.

US crypto industry needs band-aid now, 'long-term solution' later — Uyeda — *Source:* *US Securities and Exchange Commission*

Uyeda also reiterated the benefits of blockchain technology in financial markets during the roundtable discussion.

“Blockchain technology offers the potential to execute and clear securities transactions in ways that may be more efficient and reliable than current processes,” Uyeda said.

Uyeda to fill chair position until Atkins is sworn in

“Blockchains can be used to manage and mobilize collateral in tokenized form to increase capital efficiency and liquidity,” he added.

Uyeda will continue serving as acting SEC chair until US President Donald Trump’s nominee, Paul Atkins, is officially sworn in.

On April 10, the US Senate confirmed Atkins as chair of the SEC in a 52-44 vote largely along party lines.

Uyeda has served as acting SEC chair since Jan. 20, succeeding former chair and crypto skeptic Gary Gensler. He’s been widely seen within the industry as a pro-crypto advocate.

On March 18, Cointelegraph reported that Uyea said the SEC could change or scrap a rule proposed under the Biden administration that would tighten crypto custody standards for investment advisers.

“I have asked the SEC staff to work closely with the crypto task force to consider appropriate alternatives, including its withdrawal,” Uyeda said.

Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research