Peak crude demand is fueling anger and argument in the world of oil
An off-shore oil platform off the coast in Huntington Beach, California on April 5, 2020.
Leonard Ortiz | MediaNews Group | Orange County Register | Getty Images
It’s been a war of words and numbers between two major players in the energy industry – the International Energy Agency and OPEC – as they spar over the future of something crucial to crude producers’ survival: peak oil demand.
Peak oil demand refers to the point in time when the highest level of global crude demand is reached, which will be immediately followed by a permanent decline. This would theoretically decrease the need for investments in crude oil projects and make them less economical as other energy sources take over.
For oil producing countries and companies, it’s existential.
That’s why when the chief of the IEA, an intergovernmental organization that advocates for oil consuming countries, predicted that peak oil demand would be reached by 2030 and hailed the decline of crude as a “welcome sight,” OPEC was furious.
“Such narratives only set the global energy system up to fail spectacularly,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said in a Sept. 14 statement. “It would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world.” He accused the agency of fear-mongering and risking the destabilization of the global economy.
More broadly, the spat reflects the ongoing clash between climate change concerns and the need for energy security. That juxtaposition was on full display at ADIPEC – the annual gathering whose name stood for Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition Conference until this year, when it was quietly changed to Abu Dhabi International Progressive Energy Conference.
The United Arab Emirates will be hosting the COP28 climate summit in November and has been marketing its sustainability campaigns, all the while ramping up its crude production capacity in preparation for what it expects to be a growth in future demand. The UAE is OPEC’s third-largest oil producer.
CEOs of oil majors and state oil producers stressed the need for a dual approach, insisting their companies were part of the solution, not the problem, and that an energy transition is not possible without the security and economic support of the hydrocarbons sector.
“I don’t know if we’re going to have peak oil in 2030. But it’s very dangerous to say that we have to reduce investment because that is against the transition,” Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Italian multinational energy company Eni, said Monday during a panel hosted by CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick.
He warned that if oil investment – and therefore supply – drops and fails to meet demand, prices will surge, crippling the economy.
Descalzi acknowledged that burning fossil fuels “is producing lots of CO2,” but added “we cannot shut down everything and rely just on renewables and that is the future, no. It’s not like that. We have infrastructure, we have investment that we have to recover and we have the demand that is still there.”
The IEA wrote in its Aug. 2023 report that “world oil demand is scaling record highs” and is set to expand this year, but added that faster adoption of electric vehicles and renewable power, as well as the West’s decoupling from Russian gas, will hasten peak demand before 2030.
“Based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) … Despite this cumulative increase, annual demand growth is expected to shrivel from 2.4 mb/d this year to just 0.4 mb/d in 2028, putting a peak in demand in sight,” the agency wrote in a June 2023 report.
The IEA also outlined its roadmap for Net Zero by 2050, calculating that worldwide oil demand would need to fall to 77 million barrels per day by 2030 and 24 million barrels per day by 2050.
But those figures are staggering when confronted in real-world terms: during the most intense global lockdown period of the Covid-19 pandemic, in March and April of 2020, worldwide daily oil demand was slashed by 20% – something only possible because the economy came to a near-complete standstill. The IEA’s roadmap calls for daily oil demand to be slashed by 25% in seven years’ time.
‘We all strive for the same thing’
OPEC leaders, meanwhile, point to continuing yearly increases in oil demand, particularly from major emerging markets like China and India.
But such a challenge shouldn’t distract from the immense damage to come if no action is taken, climate scientists warn. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that fossil fuel emissions must halve within the next decade if global warming is to be contained to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. And according to the panel, roughly 90% of global CO2 emissions come from fossil fuels and the heavy industry.
Thus continues the tug-of-war between climate action advocates and the hydrocarbons industry, despite some calls by the latter that they should work together. Oil companies have also been accused of dialing back their climate pledges in recent months following record annual profits.
Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy at ADIPEC, OPEC’s al-Ghais appeared to temper his response to the IEA’s latest forecast figures.
“We respect the IEA fully, of course,” he said Monday. “What we believe in is that we cannot just replace the energy system that has existed for so many years, over a decade or even two. And that’s why we continue to emphasize the importance of investing in oil, as well as investing in renewable energy, hydrogen.”
“And the important thing is the technologies,” al-Ghais added, “because ultimately, we all strive for the same thing, which is meeting the Paris Agreement objectives” of limiting the Earth’s temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
That desire is likely to be tested at COP28 when world leaders again convene in the UAE in November to publish a joint communique on climate action.
Chrysler parent company Stellantis is sinking billions on electric Jeeps and Chargers that no one wants, but the they’ve developed market-leading EVs in Europe, and this latest, £36,995 DS Automobiles No4 is exactly the sort of electric crossover that could rejuvenate the brand’s American prospects. The only question now is: why won’t they bring it here?
Both the Dodge and Jeep-branded Stellantis EVs are being offered with huge discounts in a bid to generate some kind of market interest, but the company’s American product and marketing teams seem to be deeply confused about what the market actually wants. Over in Europe, though, Stellantis’ EVs are hot sellers – and this latest five-passenger crossover from the company is expected to steal even more sales from the Model Y.
The new all-electric No4 E-Tense model from Stellantis’ French brand DS Automobiles will be offered at three trim levels starting with the Pallas at £36,995 (approx. $48K US), rising to £39,160 for the Pallas+ and topping out at £41,860 (approx. $56K US, before incentives get applied) for the range-topping Etoile.
All three trims use a front-mounted electric motor rated at 213 hp, drawing from a 58.3‑kWh battery pack. That setup delivers up to 280 miles on the WLTP cycle (about 240 miles by EPA estimates). That feels like a lot of miles from a relatively small battery, aided no doubt by the DS No4’s aerodynamic. Inside the No4’s sculpted flanks is enough room for five adults and a bunch of their stuff, as well as an incredibly sexy dash and infotainment layout that (in the official press photos, at least) seems positively slathered in Alcantara (think “vegan suede”).
With 120 kW fast charging capabilities, the No4’s battery pack can replenish from 20 to 80 percent in under 30 minutes. Thanks to built‑in V2L/V2X tech, the No4 can also supply power back to external devices.
Electrek’s Take
I think it would be a hit. As for why the marketing gurus at whatever’s left of the old Chrysler corporation seem to think an electric muscle car that no one asked for or a Dodge-branded Alfa Romeo that no one will ever ask for is a better use of their marketing dollars – that’s simply beyond me.
Maybe you guys know? Check out these photos of the new DS No4, then scroll on down to the comments and let us know what you think of Stellantis’ US product plans, and whether or not they messed up canceling the Airflow after all.
SOURCE | IMAGES: DS Automobiles.
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The clock is running out on some of the best EV lease deals of the year. With the 25% tariff on imported EVs already hitting and the federal tax credit set to vanish after September 30, automakers are dangling some serious end-of-the-month offers. If you’ve been waiting to go electric, now’s the time. CarsDirect spotted three August EV price drops worth a look, but you’ll need to move fast, because these deals won’t last past the holiday weekend.
2025 Mercedes EQE SUV: $62 per month price drop
Mercedes is sweetening the pot on its EQE SUV as it works to move inventory. The 2025 Mercedes-Benz EQE 350+ SUV can now be leased for $629 a month for 36 months with $7,923 due at signing. That works out to an effective $849 a month – a $62 drop from previous deals. For a nearly $80,000 luxury EV, that’s not a bad offer.
But timing is key. The federal EV tax credit disappears next month, and Mercedes is set to pause US EV orders on September 1, which could make finding the right model tougher. Current incentives run through September 2, so if you’ve been eyeing an EQE, lock one in now before the market shifts.
Click here for a local dealer with the Mercedes-Benz EQE 350+ SUV in stock.–trusted affiliate link
Click here to find a local dealer with the Mercedes EQE SUV in stock.–trusted affiliate link
2025 Volkswagen ID. Buzz: $90 per month price drop
As of August 22, the 2025 Volkswagen ID. Buzz picked up a hidden $3,000 Dealer Lease Bonus – that is, dealer cash that only shows up if you lease.
That incentive knocks the Pro S trim down to $589 a month for 36 months with $5,999 due at signing. Do the math, and that’s $756 a month effective cost – a $90 drop from the earlier $846 offer. With $10,500 in total savings, this is the best deal yet on the ID. Buzz and one of the standout Labor Day EV lease offers.
Click here for a local dealer with the Volkswagen ID. Buzz in stock.–trusted affiliate link
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 N: $150 per month price drop
Hyundai just slashed the price on its most powerful EV yet. The 2025 IONIQ 5 N can now be leased for $549 a month for 36 months with $3,999 due at signing (10,000 miles a year). That works out to an effective $660 a month – a huge $150 drop from July.
For a track-ready performance car, that’s a steal. And unlike most performance machines, the IONIQ 5 N doesn’t guzzle gas – you can just plug it in overnight at home. Current offers run through September 2.
Click here for a local dealer with the IONIQ 5 N in stock.–trusted affiliate link
Read more: From $129 a month: 5 of the best EV lease deals in August
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UK delivery firm DPD is putting one of Terberg’s heavy-duty electric yard tractors to the test at its giant, Oldbury, UK logistics hub – and its findings will help DPD shape a cleaner, more sustainable fleet strategy for the future.
DPD operates a fleet of over 50 yard hostlers (or “tugs” in the UK) to perform all trailer movements across its five sorting hubs in Oldbury, Smethwick, and Hinckley. Currently, those yards are serviced by a fleet of diesel tractors – but the company is interested in decarbonizing and “keen” to understand how EVs could be deployed across the fleet in the longer term.
“Tugs are the lifeblood of our hub operation, performing all trailer movements efficiently and safely across the five sites,” says Tim Jones, Director of Marketing, Communications, and Sustainability at DPD UK.
To that end, the company has deployed a Royal Terberg YT203-EV fitted with a pair of 78 kWh batteries, but it can be spec’ed up to 236 kWh and an almost unbelievable 105 tonne GCVWR. Even with “just” 156 kWh, the Terberg is able to work nearly a full 24 hours between charging – capability that is on par with diesel. At least.
“Terberg DTS are proud to be able to assist DPD on the way to Net Zero (emissions) and it was great to be able to work with DPD’s drivers and demonstrate what the YT203-EV can do in their own yard,” explains Peter Giles, Head of UK Logistics Sales at Terberg DTS. “Their aim is to be one of the leaders in the march to a more sustainable fleet future and they have already amassed a lot of knowledge and experience working with EVs. We know just how versatile and effective the vehicle is, but every operation is slightly different and working on-site with their own drivers means DPD can get really meaningful feedback from those who know the job better than anyone.”
Several operators will be trying out the YT203-EV across different shifts and operations to get feedback. So far, however, they seem hyped. “The electric tug (performs) incredibly well,” adds Jones. “Our drivers were really impressed, especially with the ease of use and driver comfort.”
Electrek’s Take
Whether it’s Terberg, Tico, or Orange EV, terminal tractors are an ideal application for electrification, and companies like DHL have spent more than a decade proving that out. And now that DPD is giving these HDEVs a chance, expect to see a whole lot more of them getting deployed soon.
SOURCE | IMAGES: DPD UK.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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